Carbon Copy Commodity Crackdown Complete: And Now The Bounce And Another Margin Hike Frenzy?

Tyler Durden's picture

And now the replica commodity crack down from last week is complete, with a near identical price action repeat of what happened last Thursday and Friday.

So will the comparable upcoming retracement drive the CME into yet another margin hike frenzy? Check back in one week.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
hugovanderbubble's picture

waiting for Equity Sell off:)

La Réplica¡

egdeh orez's picture

For all you silver longs out there who are getting rolled... here's my advice to you:

Don't buy on margin.


66Sexy's picture

So we can wager that Friday the 13th will be another hit for commodities?

Stimulus, QE1 QE2 etc and the dollar is still over 75?

The ghost of Robert Prechter rears its ugly head....

Deflation, Bitchez.... or at least that's what they want us to think...

akak's picture

Deflation, Bitchez.... or at least that's what they want us to think...


SheepDog-One's picture

Never even THOUGHT of buying silver on margin! Nah, just saw the writting on the wall 3 years ago and dumped equities and bought silver at $12.

Long-John-Silver's picture

I got in at $12 too. I find it sort of weird reading the troll posts about Silver crashing to $20 when I would still be way ahead even if it were to happen. Back then my family thought I had gone insane by cashing out the 401(k)'s and IRA accounts and buying 75% Silver @ $12 and 25% Gold @$700. Now they think I'm an evil genius.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea all friends and family called me an idiot back then, now they think Im some kind of mad alchemist or something still looking scornfully at PM's as 'nothing real, what you need is stocks and other paper things'....well theyll find out the hardest way possible.

Poisoned by silver's picture

So LJS, give me your opinion.  I am long, no pun intended, and my wife who lost her job had to cash in a 401 and decided to go PM. About the same percentages as you, except it was at the 38.00 level.  Not seeing the crash that has hit twice in two weeks, I am an absolute idiot in her eyes.  In five or ten years, Will I still be that idiot or will I also be some sort of evil genius?  My goal is set and will be buying more this weekend.  That is if I can find it.

Sophist Economicus's picture

...And don't forget, Buy low, sell high....


...And 'neither a borrower or lender be'

strannick's picture


'buy silver while the margin call shines, bitchez'

Pegasus Muse's picture

For all investors that missed the boat last time and have been on the sidelines waiting to BTFD, the moment draws near.  

A 25% off sale, thanks to our favorite market manipulators -- the CME, COMEX/NYMEX, and an AWOL CFTC.  Thanks boyz.  

The trouble is finding the stuff.  It is getting harder by the day to find anyone left with Physical Silver to sell.  Dealers seem to be tapped out.  Some of them have jacked their premium over spot. 

There's plenty of paper silver at the Crimex though --- just a ask Blythe and Jaime. 

eisley79's picture

scotiamocatta has had canadian maples straight without selling out, through all of 2011.  Most of the other products sell out fast because they have lower margins. In Canada, you can still pull the trigger at any time you like, for about spot+4 on maples, and have them in hand within 48 hours.

cognus's picture

I'm thinking that with may options expiry next week, they may as well try to slam the commodity trade one more time just in time for options - that'd make it three tries in a row... third time the charm for killing

Citxmech's picture

. . . And for all those who don't, keep buying the dips.  These margin hikes are just stealth price controls - the same thing is going to happen:  Shortages.  At that point you want to be holding physical.

FreeNewEnergy's picture

Margin's a bitch, bitchez.

rufusbird's picture

You said it Dude. I think this whole discussion in the past two weeks went a little light on this issue. Margin calls usually mean trouble.  No one, I mean NO ONE, likes margin calls. I started my first job in finance as a margin clerk in the 1970's. Must be the worst desk job in the world. People hate it when you call them for additinal margin. Even if people have money they are usually using it somewhere else, not just sitting around for margin calls. It almost always results in liquidation for speculators. With hedges it is often different. Some hedgers are locked in by a contract to buy or sell the underlying commodity that requires the position be hedged until delivery etc. I think this whole discussion in the past two weeks went a little light on this issue. Margin calls usually mean trouble.

ZeroPower's picture

i.e. funds over-leveraged in all commodities, what do you think theyre doing? Selling all at once, or gradually to allow for better fills?

This isn't over folks. 

Quinvarius's picture

This selloff is an event.  Money creation is the trend.  You seem to be of the opinion that speculators are actually causing price rises, and that raising margins is a seminal event.  I am of the opinion that the government is in panic mode and making problems worse.

ZeroPower's picture

I was purely talking about funds that made their year up until April, and now in May are realizing the "buy every commodity" trade is over. 

Im assuming they expected to get out before the other guy does at end of May with the end of the QE thing, but looks like everyone got steamrolled into doing in about a month before. 

To your point, money creation is the trend, and i don't see it stopping either. It doesn't have to be called QE for there to be stimulus.

SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre only making it far worse Quin, and these are very desperate last acts.

dehdhed's picture

it's like they're blowing themselves up on a crowded bus

silvertrain's picture

Desperate people do desperate things..That is all..

FreeNewEnergy's picture

Crap. Missed it by THAT much.

Captain Planet's picture

No QE, No QE!!!!!!

Let them bitchez fail.....i got my prizes lined up and ready to go buy, buy, buy come July!

SWRichmond's picture

You and me both, pal.  I got me a shopping list and money to spend.  It's like waiting at the Mall for the clerks to put out the SALE! signs.  I can't fucking wait.

falak pema's picture

told you all the fun began in ...August!

tmosley's picture

I think I'll just leave this here:

Login or register to post comments  by tmosley 
on Mon, 11/01/2010 – 13:15

Watch closely for a fall in paper silver accompanied by a large rise in premium for physical silver both nominally in percentage terms.  If this is the case, then the silver market will have broken, and true price discovery through the silver dealers will begin.

Long-John-Silver's picture

Oh look. A circle looks exactly like a zero.

Texas Gunslinger's picture

Mr. Mosely

According to my calculations, you post a comment about 29 times a day.

You just pulled some comment of yours from early November, meaning you had to filter through over 6 months of comments, or ~190 days.  At 29 times a day, that's over 5000 comments that you've posted since November.

Let's assume I'm exaggerating, and divide by 2.  That's 2500 comments since November. Let's subtract more just for the sake of fairness....that's 2000 comments.

Let's divide by 2, again - just for the sake of fairness..... that's 1000 comments.

Still too much?  Let's divide by 2, yet again.  That's 500 comments since November.


You filtered through 500 (or likely more) of your own comments to repost A BLATANTLY WRONG PREDICTION OF YOURS!  


If you posted - in November - that paper prices would fall, you got that completely fucking wrong!  Paper prices went from ~$20 to ~$50!  Even after this collapse, paper prices are still 50% higher than November. 

What is wrong with you?  Why would you filter through so much of your own garbage just to repost your own errors?







akak's picture

There was no "error" in what tmosley originally stated, or reposted --- and if you were not the disingenuous and dishonest troll that you are, you would clearly acknowledge that fact.

Tell me, though, am I addressing Operative #1, #2, or #3 here?  It is so hard to keep track of the multiple personalities who post here under your handle.

tmosley's picture

Google is my friend.  I read through five posts to find that one.  The others were somewhat relevant, but I liked this one the most.

And the prediction said to WATCH FOR falling paper in the face of rising premiums, and stated what to expect next.  It was less a prediction, and more of a statement of cause and effect.

You were doing so well with your epic trolling, but now you have reduced yourself to the level of these other hooligans.  Shame on you.

wirtschaftswunder's picture

You have no friends you have only people who fell for your blind falsehoods and bot silver and are now in deep dodo

eisley79's picture

+3 mad trolls posting back to back to back

SWRichmond's picture

Hey man, the premium on SAE's is "only" $7.00 each....

The premium on 1 ounce rounds is "only" $3.80 each..

wirtschaftswunder's picture

Be less than half that next week.

Math Man's picture

And Silver Eagle production was only 35mm last year.  Up from 20mm a few years ago.

Or about 2-3% of annual silver supply.  And it can't ramp up any faster because of the refining capacity.

Classic supply bottleneck.  Industrial users can buy as much shot and flake as they want, but you think there is a shortage because you only buy coins.  So you keep buying and paying stupid premium.  That premium will disappear soon, and the price will keep declining.  If you buy coins here, you will actually lose MORE money than if you just stayed long SLV, which is backed 100% by physical silver, with no premium.

Internet Tough Guy's picture

I agree that the bottleneck is in fabrication, not metal. Look at the perth mint adding capacity; they wouldn't do that if metal supply was dropping.

Long-John-Silver's picture

Which also means they expect higher Silver sales in the future.

eisley79's picture

Mathman is correct, because, really.  The USD has stabilized, they have stopped printing money, stopped buying their own debt, stopped producing new debt, balanced the budget, paid back all their debt, funded all the unfunded liabilities, turned back into a manufacturing based economy, all the states have paid off all their debts, balanced their budgets, so have all the cities, all the infrastructure has been repaired, and paid for without debt also, all the corporations have paid off all their debts, and are now operating on solid growth without loans.

Yup, the USD has stabilized, and has no where to go but up, the US economy is entering the strongest period of growth since WW2 ended.  Things are looking pretty good going forward, and silver, well, the currency its priced in is only getting stronger, silver's got no where to go but down....

soon its only going to cost 4 dollars to dig from the ground, then 3...2....1....

tmosley's picture

Then why have the premiums on 100oz bars doubled as well?  Hell, even COMEX bars are up near double.  In the middle of a flood of the market (according to YOU).  When I pointed out that COMEX is only 5% of the total market, you tried to backtrack and claimed that the fact that I couldn't find COMEX deliverable bars wasn't a big deal.  I then "reminded" you (ie, you had no idea) that COMEX deliverable is the same as LBMA deliverable is the same as deliverable on pretty much every exchange on the face of the planet.

You are awash in a sea of your own incompetence.  Go try to convince the guys on the Yahoo boards to sell their silver.  Your faux knowledge might fool them.  Oh wait, none of those guys own any silver.  Really, as a group, only ZHers own a large amount of silver.  Hmmmmm.....

LRC Fan's picture

Gee, only 6 months early.  That sure would have helped a lot of players in the paper game.  Seriously, you should stop commenting on anything relating to paper silver, because you obviously don't play the game, and you're so biased that even when someone correctly calls the short term dips or bounces, you write them off as a troll, even though they are hitting their target of making some quick cash. 

That post serves no true purpose, except maybe preaching to the choir.  Most of us know the paper price doesn't reflect the true value of silver.  But I keep saying it.  Players in AGQ or SLV do not give a fuck about that.  So why do you continue to engage them and lecture them? 

Also, I just bought some Eagles yesterday for $40.  The local dealers' premiums have gone up, but not as much as you would expect. 

You will be proven right, but to the short term traders it's like saying "the Dow will fall by 250 points, I just don't know exactly when."  It's useless info.  And the reason I bring it up, is because you keep shouting "I'm not a trader!!!!!!!!" and yet you continue to engage the short term traders in arguments about paper silver.  It's pretty pathetic. 

When silver was skyrocketing, you and a lot of others were saying things like "$50 this week" and then when it crashed you simply said "ha, doesn't matter, I'm in it for the long haul bitchez."  If that's true then why bother commenting on short term prices?  It's a classic "heads I'm right, tails I'm also right, except I'll use whatever argument suits me best to ensure I am correct."  It really destroys any credibility you have about any short term swings in price.  Long term, you're going to be proven right, but short term you really are clueless.