This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Carbon Copy Commodity Crackdown Complete: And Now The Bounce And Another Margin Hike Frenzy?

Tyler Durden's picture


And now the replica commodity crack down from last week is complete, with a near identical price action repeat of what happened last Thursday and Friday.

So will the comparable upcoming retracement drive the CME into yet another margin hike frenzy? Check back in one week.


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:16 | 1267557 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

waiting for Equity Sell off:)

La Réplica¡

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:19 | 1267573 egdeh orez
egdeh orez's picture

For all you silver longs out there who are getting rolled... here's my advice to you:

Don't buy on margin.


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:30 | 1267581 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

So we can wager that Friday the 13th will be another hit for commodities?

Stimulus, QE1 QE2 etc and the dollar is still over 75?

The ghost of Robert Prechter rears its ugly head....

Deflation, Bitchez.... or at least that's what they want us to think...

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:54 | 1267775 akak
akak's picture

Deflation, Bitchez.... or at least that's what they want us to think...


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:33 | 1267637 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Never even THOUGHT of buying silver on margin! Nah, just saw the writting on the wall 3 years ago and dumped equities and bought silver at $12.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:40 | 1267676 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I got in at $12 too. I find it sort of weird reading the troll posts about Silver crashing to $20 when I would still be way ahead even if it were to happen. Back then my family thought I had gone insane by cashing out the 401(k)'s and IRA accounts and buying 75% Silver @ $12 and 25% Gold @$700. Now they think I'm an evil genius.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:47 | 1268063 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea all friends and family called me an idiot back then, now they think Im some kind of mad alchemist or something still looking scornfully at PM's as 'nothing real, what you need is stocks and other paper things'....well theyll find out the hardest way possible.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:43 | 1268228 strannick
strannick's picture

or even realer, bonds!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:03 | 1268347 Poisoned by silver
Poisoned by silver's picture

So LJS, give me your opinion.  I am long, no pun intended, and my wife who lost her job had to cash in a 401 and decided to go PM. About the same percentages as you, except it was at the 38.00 level.  Not seeing the crash that has hit twice in two weeks, I am an absolute idiot in her eyes.  In five or ten years, Will I still be that idiot or will I also be some sort of evil genius?  My goal is set and will be buying more this weekend.  That is if I can find it.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:51 | 1267763 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

...And don't forget, Buy low, sell high....


...And 'neither a borrower or lender be'

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:41 | 1268233 strannick
strannick's picture


'buy silver while the margin call shines, bitchez'

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:38 | 1268014 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

For all investors that missed the boat last time and have been on the sidelines waiting to BTFD, the moment draws near.  

A 25% off sale, thanks to our favorite market manipulators -- the CME, COMEX/NYMEX, and an AWOL CFTC.  Thanks boyz.  

The trouble is finding the stuff.  It is getting harder by the day to find anyone left with Physical Silver to sell.  Dealers seem to be tapped out.  Some of them have jacked their premium over spot. 

There's plenty of paper silver at the Crimex though --- just a ask Blythe and Jaime. 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:03 | 1268351 eisley79
eisley79's picture

scotiamocatta has had canadian maples straight without selling out, through all of 2011.  Most of the other products sell out fast because they have lower margins. In Canada, you can still pull the trigger at any time you like, for about spot+4 on maples, and have them in hand within 48 hours.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:41 | 1268563 cognus
cognus's picture

I'm thinking that with may options expiry next week, they may as well try to slam the commodity trade one more time just in time for options - that'd make it three tries in a row... third time the charm for killing

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:51 | 1268903 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

. . . And for all those who don't, keep buying the dips.  These margin hikes are just stealth price controls - the same thing is going to happen:  Shortages.  At that point you want to be holding physical.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:20 | 1267559 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:17 | 1267560 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Margin's a bitch, bitchez.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:45 | 1268048 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

You said it Dude. I think this whole discussion in the past two weeks went a little light on this issue. Margin calls usually mean trouble.  No one, I mean NO ONE, likes margin calls. I started my first job in finance as a margin clerk in the 1970's. Must be the worst desk job in the world. People hate it when you call them for additinal margin. Even if people have money they are usually using it somewhere else, not just sitting around for margin calls. It almost always results in liquidation for speculators. With hedges it is often different. Some hedgers are locked in by a contract to buy or sell the underlying commodity that requires the position be hedged until delivery etc. I think this whole discussion in the past two weeks went a little light on this issue. Margin calls usually mean trouble.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:20 | 1267561 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

i.e. funds over-leveraged in all commodities, what do you think theyre doing? Selling all at once, or gradually to allow for better fills?

This isn't over folks. 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:45 | 1267721 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

This selloff is an event.  Money creation is the trend.  You seem to be of the opinion that speculators are actually causing price rises, and that raising margins is a seminal event.  I am of the opinion that the government is in panic mode and making problems worse.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:52 | 1267751 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:15 | 1267881 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

I was purely talking about funds that made their year up until April, and now in May are realizing the "buy every commodity" trade is over. 

Im assuming they expected to get out before the other guy does at end of May with the end of the QE thing, but looks like everyone got steamrolled into doing in about a month before. 

To your point, money creation is the trend, and i don't see it stopping either. It doesn't have to be called QE for there to be stimulus.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:51 | 1268065 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre only making it far worse Quin, and these are very desperate last acts.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 00:53 | 1270839 dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

it's like they're blowing themselves up on a crowded bus

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:17 | 1267562 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

Desperate people do desperate things..That is all..

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:18 | 1267563 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Crap. Missed it by THAT much.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:18 | 1267564 Captain Planet
Captain Planet's picture

No QE, No QE!!!!!!

Let them bitchez fail.....i got my prizes lined up and ready to go buy, buy, buy come July!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:21 | 1267582 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

You and me both, pal.  I got me a shopping list and money to spend.  It's like waiting at the Mall for the clerks to put out the SALE! signs.  I can't fucking wait.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:31 | 1267620 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:46 | 1268592 falak pema
falak pema's picture

told you all the fun began in ...August!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:18 | 1267565 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I think I'll just leave this here:

Login or register to post comments  by tmosley 
on Mon, 11/01/2010 – 13:15

Watch closely for a fall in paper silver accompanied by a large rise in premium for physical silver both nominally in percentage terms.  If this is the case, then the silver market will have broken, and true price discovery through the silver dealers will begin.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:23 | 1267591 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:31 | 1267618 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

Oh look a circle jerk.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:43 | 1267691 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Oh look. A circle looks exactly like a zero.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:38 | 1268006 Texas Gunslinger
Texas Gunslinger's picture

Mr. Mosely

According to my calculations, you post a comment about 29 times a day.

You just pulled some comment of yours from early November, meaning you had to filter through over 6 months of comments, or ~190 days.  At 29 times a day, that's over 5000 comments that you've posted since November.

Let's assume I'm exaggerating, and divide by 2.  That's 2500 comments since November. Let's subtract more just for the sake of fairness....that's 2000 comments.

Let's divide by 2, again - just for the sake of fairness..... that's 1000 comments.

Still too much?  Let's divide by 2, yet again.  That's 500 comments since November.


You filtered through 500 (or likely more) of your own comments to repost A BLATANTLY WRONG PREDICTION OF YOURS!  


If you posted - in November - that paper prices would fall, you got that completely fucking wrong!  Paper prices went from ~$20 to ~$50!  Even after this collapse, paper prices are still 50% higher than November. 

What is wrong with you?  Why would you filter through so much of your own garbage just to repost your own errors?







Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:47 | 1268055 akak
akak's picture

There was no "error" in what tmosley originally stated, or reposted --- and if you were not the disingenuous and dishonest troll that you are, you would clearly acknowledge that fact.

Tell me, though, am I addressing Operative #1, #2, or #3 here?  It is so hard to keep track of the multiple personalities who post here under your handle.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:09 | 1268387 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

You are a fucking poodle.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:54 | 1268075 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Google is my friend.  I read through five posts to find that one.  The others were somewhat relevant, but I liked this one the most.

And the prediction said to WATCH FOR falling paper in the face of rising premiums, and stated what to expect next.  It was less a prediction, and more of a statement of cause and effect.

You were doing so well with your epic trolling, but now you have reduced yourself to the level of these other hooligans.  Shame on you.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:11 | 1268391 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

You have no friends you have only people who fell for your blind falsehoods and bot silver and are now in deep dodo

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:51 | 1268270 Ryman1075
Ryman1075's picture

nice shootin' tex

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:07 | 1268369 eisley79
eisley79's picture

+3 mad trolls posting back to back to back

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:27 | 1267593 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Hey man, the premium on SAE's is "only" $7.00 each....

The premium on 1 ounce rounds is "only" $3.80 each..

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:29 | 1267626 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

Be less than half that next week.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:31 | 1267627 Math Man
Math Man's picture

And Silver Eagle production was only 35mm last year.  Up from 20mm a few years ago.

Or about 2-3% of annual silver supply.  And it can't ramp up any faster because of the refining capacity.

Classic supply bottleneck.  Industrial users can buy as much shot and flake as they want, but you think there is a shortage because you only buy coins.  So you keep buying and paying stupid premium.  That premium will disappear soon, and the price will keep declining.  If you buy coins here, you will actually lose MORE money than if you just stayed long SLV, which is backed 100% by physical silver, with no premium.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:41 | 1267679 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

I agree that the bottleneck is in fabrication, not metal. Look at the perth mint adding capacity; they wouldn't do that if metal supply was dropping.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:45 | 1267703 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Which also means they expect higher Silver sales in the future.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:47 | 1267717 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

And buyers can expect more supply.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:38 | 1268534 eisley79
eisley79's picture

Mathman is correct, because, really.  The USD has stabilized, they have stopped printing money, stopped buying their own debt, stopped producing new debt, balanced the budget, paid back all their debt, funded all the unfunded liabilities, turned back into a manufacturing based economy, all the states have paid off all their debts, balanced their budgets, so have all the cities, all the infrastructure has been repaired, and paid for without debt also, all the corporations have paid off all their debts, and are now operating on solid growth without loans.

Yup, the USD has stabilized, and has no where to go but up, the US economy is entering the strongest period of growth since WW2 ended.  Things are looking pretty good going forward, and silver, well, the currency its priced in is only getting stronger, silver's got no where to go but down....

soon its only going to cost 4 dollars to dig from the ground, then 3...2....1....

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:43 | 1267708 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Then why have the premiums on 100oz bars doubled as well?  Hell, even COMEX bars are up near double.  In the middle of a flood of the market (according to YOU).  When I pointed out that COMEX is only 5% of the total market, you tried to backtrack and claimed that the fact that I couldn't find COMEX deliverable bars wasn't a big deal.  I then "reminded" you (ie, you had no idea) that COMEX deliverable is the same as LBMA deliverable is the same as deliverable on pretty much every exchange on the face of the planet.

You are awash in a sea of your own incompetence.  Go try to convince the guys on the Yahoo boards to sell their silver.  Your faux knowledge might fool them.  Oh wait, none of those guys own any silver.  Really, as a group, only ZHers own a large amount of silver.  Hmmmmm.....

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:29 | 1267610 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Gee, only 6 months early.  That sure would have helped a lot of players in the paper game.  Seriously, you should stop commenting on anything relating to paper silver, because you obviously don't play the game, and you're so biased that even when someone correctly calls the short term dips or bounces, you write them off as a troll, even though they are hitting their target of making some quick cash. 

That post serves no true purpose, except maybe preaching to the choir.  Most of us know the paper price doesn't reflect the true value of silver.  But I keep saying it.  Players in AGQ or SLV do not give a fuck about that.  So why do you continue to engage them and lecture them? 

Also, I just bought some Eagles yesterday for $40.  The local dealers' premiums have gone up, but not as much as you would expect. 

You will be proven right, but to the short term traders it's like saying "the Dow will fall by 250 points, I just don't know exactly when."  It's useless info.  And the reason I bring it up, is because you keep shouting "I'm not a trader!!!!!!!!" and yet you continue to engage the short term traders in arguments about paper silver.  It's pretty pathetic. 

When silver was skyrocketing, you and a lot of others were saying things like "$50 this week" and then when it crashed you simply said "ha, doesn't matter, I'm in it for the long haul bitchez."  If that's true then why bother commenting on short term prices?  It's a classic "heads I'm right, tails I'm also right, except I'll use whatever argument suits me best to ensure I am correct."  It really destroys any credibility you have about any short term swings in price.  Long term, you're going to be proven right, but short term you really are clueless. 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:41 | 1267678 tmosley
tmosley's picture

WTF are you talking about "6 months early"?  I said "WATCH FOR THIS, IT WILL MEAN THAT".  Well "THIS" is happening, meaning "THAT" is about to happen.

And I have told everyone that will listen to GTFO of paper since that time, back then when premiums were nice and low, and you could trade them at almost 1:1.  You can't do that any more.  There is a price disconnect.

Note that those who have followed my advise and loaded up on physical silver are up $500 for every dollar they lost buying the parabolic run up.

What you don't understand is that those "traders" aren't traders.  They came here SPECIFICALLY to try to get readers to part with their physical silver.  Some fools did so.  Long time holders who will NEVER be able to buy as much as they sold with the leftovers the tax man "gave" them.  Every person they part from their silver is another person they have sent to the poorhouse.  I WON'T FUCKING STAND FOR IT.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:42 | 1267686 Math Man
Math Man's picture

I'm suprised you're still here.  You should be at the coin dealer selling your silver.

Take advantage of the premium while you still can...  it is simply a supply bottleneck.

You should also buy some puts while you're at it.

Between the two, you'll be buying back a lot more ounces in a few months with the proceeds.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:46 | 1267715 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Go die, shill.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:46 | 1267730 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

I'll bet your asshole is extremely dilated right now.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:49 | 1267734 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Tmo - I've been trying to help you out for months, and this is the thanks I get?

If you had listend to me and bought some puts you'd be buying more silver right now.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:30 | 1267947 akak
akak's picture

You fucking disingenuous, lying son of a bitch!

Your so-called "help" (read: pro-bankster misinformation, disinformation and lies) was neither solicited nor required.

You are truly, next to the former JohnnyBravo, the most malicious, duplicitous, insidious, dishonest, and rabidly malevolent anti-precious metals troll that I have ever seen in this forum.  I hope and expect that a very special corner of Hell is reserved for traitors to truth and freedom such as you.  Your moral standing here is right up there with that of the obedient collaborators who dropped the Zyklon-B into the Nazi gas chambers, as you continually try to throw passengers out of the lifeboats, and spit in the faces of those still flailing in the water.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:26 | 1267959 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Read this about 'cash cost', Mr. Cinco

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:04 | 1267833 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

tm, sit back and breathe deeply.  Soothe yourself with the truth, they are just paid liars and on this board they won't have any effect. They are incompetent and ineffective. They are just the grown up versions of the those obnoxious kids on the school playground, remember them, the ones who when they were losing their stupid arguements ended up calling people 'penis-head' because it was the best they could do. These guys are a bit annoying but they are nothings, not worth getting your blood pressure up about.  

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:15 | 1267882 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Actually, Tmo is the one who usually starts with calling people 'penis-head'

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:56 | 1268079 akak
akak's picture

If the smegma-laden purple helmet fits .......

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:53 | 1268082 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I don't think I have ever used that term.

But then, you are a certified liar, but I wouldn't think you would further strain your non-existent credibility with such a pointless lie.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:48 | 1267726 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

No, didn't you hear?  You have to pay taxes on each sale.  Lol. And no puts, since silver can't go down from

Who the fuck cares if some idiots sell their physical.  Just means more supply on the market for me to buy and hold. 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:57 | 1267777 tmosley
tmosley's picture

So, you are saying that people who bought silver at $7 and sold at $48 aren't incurring a tax liability?

Are you really saying that?  Really?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:08 | 1267835 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

If they bot physical they are not depended on manner of sale.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:13 | 1267861 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You hit the crack again.  I have no idea what you are trying to say here.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 19:05 | 1268962 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

This is not correct: I don't know what the first is talking about who said that buyers are getting taxed on "both sides," because a buyer is letting himself get taken advantage of if he is paying retail tax on silver purchases.  Silver is not taxed with a sales tax (unless when value-added, like silverware and jewelry) in many states, and anyone can buy it online with no tax; if a person doesn't know that, then he needs to stop and research before continuing, but that's a very fundamental thing to know.

As for selling, a seller IS liable for federal taxes on gains, physical or paper.  You say that "they are not (sic) depended on the manner of sale," and I know you meant to say "dependant," but I still don't know what this even means.  Sellers are liable for a maximum 28% federal "collectibles" tax, not the max 15% capital gains. For short term gains, the maximum rate is over 35%.  This is a HUGE liability, and it doesn't matter if a seller is in paper or physical.  Sure, if a seller has a dozen ounces, he can sell it at the local dealer and leave no paper trail, but if he is making a large sale, the dealer is required to get an SSN and send him a 1099.

A "large sale" is $1000 face bag or more, 1000 oz or more, etc.  So a person with a large position has to think about this before making moves.  This, along with other reasons, is why the big ships try not to make turns.

The buyer we are talking about, who loaded up on silver to protect his USD-dominated "wealth" did not do so at $30 an ounce.  He did so at $15, corresponding to his 2008-2009-2010 long-term turbulence observations.  He has therefore already been through the most turbulent strait, which are those years of swinging over and under his entry point where his principal is at risk (this is true for other investments, as well).  The market is now well-established over his entry point, even by the metrics of contrarians here who are calling for silver to go into the $20's.  Those buyers who came in at $30 have to go through what he already went through with price turbulence until a new level is supported.  Those who got in at $45 have to take it even more and I think they are going to be taking for a long time, just like those who came in at then-recent-highs of $22 during the Bear Stearns events in early 2008.  Those guys were waiting until 2010 to get established above their entry point.  For that year and a half between, they were getting their asses kicked.  The new kids on the block are the $30's and above.

[Edited: to add "maximum" before 28%, as Akak pointed out.]

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:12 | 1267858 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

I don't see you outside shouting at all the cars doing 60 in a 55mph zone to slow down, because "it's against the law to speed!"  Who in the fuck claims silver to the tax man? 

If the government decides to call in all the silver, I can expect you to be at the head of the line, right?  Roflmao. 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:13 | 1267884 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No, but I don't trade silver for dollars in large amounts.  If RobotTrader did, and fails to pay taxes, then he is likely in for an ass raping that will last for a decade.  What do you think the likelihood is that that transaction was recorded?  Pretty high, in my opinion.

He pays taxes on all of his other transactions, I don't know why he wouldn't pay them on silver.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:43 | 1268230 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

I'd be willing to bet that PM holders have a flag set by their name with the IRS. Good luck hiding from the IRS.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 16:26 | 1269370 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

Yeah, I would think so too.  Small sellers can avoid taxes on bullion sales in the same way a person can avoid sales tax at a garage sale, but anyone working with Tulving is dancing with the devil if they are not reporting.

Mind you, all you in SLV, no matter how small, will be getting that 1099, too.  There are some passive foreign investment company's like like PSLV that are not subject to this...unless you take delivery.  I think this is one reason PSLV trades at such a premium; I think another reason is because they actually have the silver.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 20:36 | 1270227 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"My car cost me fifteen grand, some say I got a deal.

Melted down, I got a thousand pounds of junk, ten dollars worth of steel.

A million-dollar reserve note is right there in my hand...I can't stand the thing!

Well, it's all that I got...", Montrose, "Paper Money"

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:42 | 1267705 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

You won't stand for it? You are way too emotionally invested to think clearly. Very dangerous.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:45 | 1267720 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Bull shit.  I'm posting my own comments from MONTHS ago, showing how everything is coming to pass as predicted, meaning further predictions made at the same time are likely to come true as well.

But hey, you go ahead and sell.  Not everyone can become an oligarch.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:50 | 1267740 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

Painful to lose big money but even more so to be embarrassed publicly by it. I'll bet all your co-workers are drowning in shit right now.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:48 | 1267742 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Again, if anyone is buying and holding for the long term, you're preaching to the choir.  If anyone is playing the paper game, your "predictions" are fucking worthless because traders need to predict things in a timely manner.  And your logic is beyond retarded.  You predicted silver premiums to go up 6 months ago.  You could have also predicted your dick to grow 7 inches since then.  And by your logic, both predictions were made at the same time, making them ever more likely to be correct. 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:39 | 1268211 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

If he has a long term perspective and does not play the paper game, ignore his posts. If you want a traders take on things go to Turd's site. A pretty good site to congregate with traders of paper commodities, especially PMs.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:54 | 1267753 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Sure Tmo, you called it.  You said the paper market would collapse, but called any one who bought puts an idiot.  You are nothing but a walking contradiction.  If you really believed there were two markets and one of the was going to crash, you would have shorted SLV vs your physical.  But you didn't. 

Because you know deep in your heart that SLV is backed by physical.  And that you are really just a greedy chicken shit pussy who was afraid to give up some upside by hedging.


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:58 | 1267783 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

According to your statements he must be conducting a zero hedge.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:59 | 1267786 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

SLV puts should be popular with Tmosley. If the price does disconnect from paper price, he will win as paper price falls away. If the price doesn't disconnect and silver crashes he will be hedged. Why no puts, Tmosley?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:59 | 1267801 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

Because he's an idiot. A loud mouthed part of the herd.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:03 | 1267807 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I don't play in paper, just like I don't loot burning buildings, or steal silverware from sinking ships.  I get the fuck out.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:08 | 1267849 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Yeah but if you "know" paper silver will collapse to 0 why not buy some puts?  Oh, you don't "know"?  Mybad. 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:18 | 1267895 tmosley
tmosley's picture

If you "know" the ship is sinking, do you bring your lifeboat along side and try to stick your arm through a porthole and try to take stuff?

Sure you can do that, but there is danger involved.  Namely that the ship lurches down and cuts off your arm.  I would rather buy a little more physical.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:34 | 1267991 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

You are wildly overestimating the timeframe when the dollar becomes worthless and physical hits $100+

The dollar isn't going to drop straight to 0 overnight.  Hedge accordingly. If you're opposed to making some extra cash on SLV puts, you're just stupid.  It would be like telling your employer or customers that you don't accept fiat anymore.  You would get laughed out of the office.  At least for now, dollars still play.  In time silver will trump but you're talking as if the dollar will die any day now.  Totally off base. It hasn't even made new all time lows yet, once that happens the decline should accelerate but right now the dollar is actually up a bit compared to a week ago. 

Also if you could short the titanic, would you?  Seems like if you know for sure something will tank, might as well make some money along the way. 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:58 | 1268093 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Shorting is good, except you can't remove the cash from your brokerage account and dump it into physical metal in your possession.  As such, the even you are waiting for may come, or it may take a long time, during which you have to pay carrying costs on your short paper, and are unable to put it into ANYTHING that you consider true value.

I could buy puts, but they are kept in a safe on the Titanic.  Probably not the smartest thing in the world, especially since you have absolutely no idea how long the ship will take to sink once it starts (and you don't make ANY money until it starts).

I guess some people just won't see.  Paper games are paper games, and some people only want what is real.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:16 | 1268411 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

You and your family and co-workers are losing money and you deserve to because you are an idiot. You have no idea what you are talking about. None.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:35 | 1268512 akak
akak's picture

WilliamTheBastard/WorthlessShaftingFromUnda, you are SO transparent in your blind, puerile and psychopathic hatred for tmosley!   It's hard to decide if you are as funny as you are pathetic.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:03 | 1268110 akak
akak's picture

So LRC, do you have some magical crystal ball that gives YOU the timeframe in which the dollar will collapse?

It is a given that the dollar WILL undergo a drastic and rapid devaluation, over and above the ongoing depreciation it is currently experiencing.  With that in mind, every day that passes makes the odds that it will happen imminently that much greater.  Your advice to continue playing in the paper markets strike me as, to use a well-worn cliche, picking up pennies immediately in front of a steamroller --- and at some point, you WILL get your sleeve caught under the roller, and then it is game over for you.  What is so wrong with thinking ahead and (gasp! in this day and age?) for the longer term, and not risking one's life savings for the sake of a potential few percent gain?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:59 | 1267799 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No, I called anyone who bought puts without also owning calls an idiot.

And you will recall that I said that owning puts along with physical silver was a good play, if you are interested in playing paper games.

I don't do that.

Also funny that you call me greedy for not playing in paper to make more money, and a chicken shit pussy for standing up for my beliefs in the face of a paper price collapse.

I don't hate you for being short (if I did that, I would hate topcallingtroll and silvergoldsilver), I hate you for trying to seperate people from their physical gold and silver by using LIES (silver from SLV is FLOODING THE MARKET) and half truths (it only costs $5 to pull out of the ground--not mentioning that that is after all the side products have sold, meaning they can't ramp up production and maintain that price level).

Go die, shill.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:05 | 1267819 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

You call him a Shill? You? You are the biggest shill on ZH. You suck hypocrite.

You called for silver to be $49 last Friday. Your the shill you fucking turd. I expect you got all your family and co-workers in neck deep in silver. Neck deep in shit.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:23 | 1267925 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Whatever you say, crackhead.

The last of my colleagues who bought, bought silver at $29.  It went lower shortly after he bought it, and he bought more.  He, like me, will buy more and more and more as the paper price goes down, down, down.

Meanwhile, you sit alone on the beach, neckbeard stifling you against the breeze, with nothing but your van and your crackpipe, talking shit on ZH.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:15 | 1268419 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

Good comeback. Guess I'll go buy silver now.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:11 | 1267852 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Tmo, all I've been doing to trying to help people not be victims of a huge bubble.  But you apparently are to blind to see that. 

But there is still time to hedge out your physical.  This party is nowhere near over, and won't be until the producer hedging stops.  And given $5 cash costs, that won't be until below $20...


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:34 | 1267986 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

Right meth man, your hear to only help us. Fucking camp guard.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:40 | 1268027 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Please explain how silver is a "bubble". Do you not realize that bubbles are created by credit and people aren't exactly offering easy money to people who buy silver.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:23 | 1268167 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Did you miss the part where the COMEX had to change the margin requirements from 5% to over 10% on a contract, thereby reducing credit and leverage from 20x to 10x?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:16 | 1268432 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

There's no credit in extended in th futures market? None extended through ETFs and ETF ultras? You get out much?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:20 | 1268168 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Altruism? That's funny.


You're a blowhard talking his book.


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:21 | 1268171 Math Man
Math Man's picture

I am not stupid enough to believe anything said here really matters.  We're all too small. 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:29 | 1268188 akak
akak's picture

I am not stupid enough to believe anything said here really matters.  We're all too small. 

Ah yes, pro-Establishment Propaganda Meme #47: The average person, or the entire population, is too powerless to do anything in the face of the Sociopathic Power Elite.  Go back to your "American Idol" and "Dancing with the Stars" and continue to hold your illusory paper wealth --- you have no options, no choice, no power, no hope.

You are the most malicious, malevolent troll to ever disgrace this forum.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:00 | 1268312 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Individually, yes. Collectively, no.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 20:36 | 1270238 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"You act as though you don't remember, the way it all used to be.

Now, one man locks up the money, another man holds the key!

A million-dollar reserve note, is right there in my hand...I can't stand the thing!", Montrose, "Paper Money"

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:50 | 1267760 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

I use the 1% rule; can a 1% probability event wipe me out? If yes, do something else. Being all in silver doesn't pass my test.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:27 | 1267951 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What is the 1% event that would wipe you out?

You are acting like physical silver is going to go to zero.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:41 | 1268002 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Not 0, but it doesn't have to if I buy it at 40. I don't know if silver goes up down or sideways in dollar terms, but in real terms I think it loses to gold. Nominal loss is just another risk.

I am waiting for freegold.

Some questions; why hasn't JPM broken? Why hasn't backwardation broken COMEX? Why can't manipulators make money off volatility in both directions? How can you know JPM's true postion?


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:01 | 1268101 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Freegold is a fantasy, for reasons previously mentioned (ie the transactional currency will slip into hyperinflation very quickly, as no-one is able to save in it).  

But yes, gold will win in the end.  I will switch to gold during the panic of industrial silver users, when silver is approximately equal in price to gold.

Silver will settle down to an equilibrium price that will be lower than gold in the end, but it will reach parity, and perhaps beyond in the chaos of a COMEX collapse and the market signal failure that will follow.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:36 | 1268153 akak
akak's picture

I have also read at great length this FOFOA's blog (and is there any other way to read his interminable, supercilious bloviating?), and it has always struck me as wrong from the get-go, not just his "this time it's different", historically-unprecedented scenario, but his blind insistence that somehow transactional (fiat) currency can and will remain seperate from the store of value aspect of gold. 

I have asked this comment in his forum there, with no good response: what is to stop me from transacting with you, tmosley, directly in gold?  Are we going to be "allowed" to have that freedom under his Freegold scenario?  If so, then what is to stop more and more people from doing the same, until an effective gold standard is re-established and his "purely transactional", presumably manipulated and depreciating, Freegold fiat currency is consigned to the dustbin of history along with every other such currency? 


Aside from that, there is a cultish quality to the whole idea among its adherents that is truly creepy to behold.  I can never lose the feeling that the High Priest (FOFOA) is constantly interpreting the gospel as delivered by the prophets from on high (Another and FOA).  Funny, though, how the prophets themselves are long gone and silent --- now just why might that be?

What really bothers me, though, is the blind certainty among all the Freegold cultists --- I am always going to be skeptical when somebody insists that the future WILL unfold in EXACTLY this way, and cannot possibly do otherwise.  If you ask me, FreeGold is more of a religion and anything else.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:00 | 1267796 akak
akak's picture

I guess this is the new tactic of the anti-silver, pro-Bankster shills such as MethMan and WorthlessShaftsUnder --- to gang up in coordinated attacks on those here who are the most vocal in exposing their lies and deceit.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:28 | 1267950 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

akak, I'm not surprised. Weak hands are being slaughtered now. I've seen it many times over the last 11 years. Without strong conviction these types will seperate you from your position every single time. These people laugh at the  "buy and hold" crowd but it has worked brilliantly for long term PM's holders.

Some of them may be good day traders, but they are also intellectually/financially dishonest longer term, the whole lot of them. Lies, misdirection and outright propaganda are their trademark.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:40 | 1268010 akak
akak's picture

I have no doubt --- NO DOUBT WHATSOEVER --- that MethMan is a bought-and-paid troll employed by JPMorgan themselves, or if not them, then by one or another branch of our beloved federal government.  The duplicity and treacherous dishonesty of his rabid pro-Establishment, anti-individual financial sovereignty trolling just boils my blood.  He and those like him are nothing but willing pawns for the sociopathic power elite, and in their complicity with them are fully as evil as is that sociopathic elite.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:11 | 1268127 buck4free
buck4free's picture

Why are the trolls allegedly trying to get folk to part with miniscule amounts of physical? What possibly could be a (convincing) motive?

Honestly, I'm curious...

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:27 | 1267611 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture



The wheels are coming off the paper silver cartel.

They've already sent out their astroturf trolls, on this board and other newspapers with a comment section, to discourage silver bugs.

Clear signs of erosion and desperation among the fiat confetti printers.


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:28 | 1267617 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

And anyone who owns physical becomes a dealer.

My price to sell hasn't change at all in the past 3 weeks.  8-o

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:38 | 1267665 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

A dealer price tracking system similar to the MIT billion points project may allow people to get real time price discovery.  I'd love to cut the crooks out of the loop and let them just bide their time until they take their place in that warm place reserved for them in hell.  What happens short term to all those paper trade ETFs linked to the Comex? SLV at 10 while physical is 55 reminds me of one of those fascinating but incomprehensible (to me) spreads Tyler posts occasionaly.  Someone who knew what they're doing could make money on it.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:20 | 1267568 Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

And while commodities cost money here, Fukushima is still giving away radioactive material... get 'em while they're hot! This just on the Bloomberg site:

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:25 | 1267588 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Yeah.....amazing how that whole clusterfrick disappeared off the MSM radar

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:26 | 1267605 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Holy shit, someone with a teletector (top picture); it's only, what, 2 months later?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:30 | 1267628 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

I hear iodine-131 is good for removing tarnish from silver.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:22 | 1267569 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

The sale of the summer hasn't even begun...2 months from now there will be some fine items on sale.  The hard part is holding this dirty fiat while I wait.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:25 | 1267590 iLoveMisesToPieces
iLoveMisesToPieces's picture


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:19 | 1267571 6 String
6 String's picture

The 2000 going Green.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:25 | 1267584 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Silver is getting hammered like no tomorrow. In the last 2 weeks it is down 50% of its last move, usually a good place to get in. I am getting set to buy today.

Does anyone have any idea how low it will go?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:26 | 1267596 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture


Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:31 | 1267642 6 String
6 String's picture

Well, I'm long silver. But the more I think about it, the more I realize its a suckers bet. Gold is owned by central banks. Silver isn't. What's this mean? We know that precious metals--including the much larger Gold market--is completely underowned. In fact, it's the most underowned asset class of all in the Western World.

Many long thesis points to this being very bullish for their central case. But this could be the very hinge that unhinges the Gold but especially silver market. Why? you think in general that 310 million dumbed down Americans that can give a shit about what the real America should lool like will be affected one iota when Goldman Obama initiate a no long contracts call in the silver markets, liquidiation only?  No, since the sheeple own none to little-they won't give a fucking rats ass what happens to the silver market...heck, has anyone seen Goldman Obama's approval rating despite the massive hit to the Silver on the COMEX? Yeah, it's up. What's that tell you?

And when Goldman Obama gets away with liquidation only in Silver futures with barely a written article on it--except for a few hundred on "omininous anti-American" blogs--they will then go after the physical market. By this time, Silver will be trading at sub $20, and they will force turn in at a 10% premimium and act like they're doing silver bugs a favor to the entire country. And the sheeple will fucking buy it.

No, I'm not a troll. Read my first fucking sentence.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:38 | 1267674 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

If silver is a sucker's bet why are you long? If the paper price collapses why would the physical price collapse as well?  Haven't you seen the increased premiums lately? 

Why would the people not care if silver crashes yet applaud the government for making us turn it in?  If silver drops to $20 why the hell would anyone care if people own 50000 oz?  And do you really think a "silver turn in" program would work? 

Congratulations, your post was an epic fail. 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:49 | 1267749 6 String
6 String's picture

If silver is a sucker's bet why are you long? If the paper price collapses why would the physical price collapse as well? 

You think Goldman Obama once they are done destroying the paper market won't be able to destroy the physical market with stipulations, regulations, and rules put on it? Like complete confiscation, as in the 30's?

Congratulations, your imagination is a epic disaster.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:56 | 1267776 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Why the fuck are you long then?  It's like calling for the Dow to plunge below 6k but saying you're still long.  What the fuck? 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:43 | 1268049 6 String
6 String's picture

Why the fuck are you so vile?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 16:45 | 1269462 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

Seriously, though, why are you a self-described "silver long" if you believe what you wrote?  Do you not see that you're either contradicting yourself or engaging in self-injurious investing?

If you believe all of that, then get out of silver.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 20:57 | 1270299 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Just as soon as the Govt. wins the Drug Prohibition war(s), they can regroup and come after Ag -- don't hold your breath.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:12 | 1267873 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

I think you are a little paranoid. The  PTB have divorced 'money' from 'that barbarous relic' precious metals and they like it that way. They are not going to give up their hard won control of the world economy by going back to it, or even admit PMs are important.

If they do try any monkey business the PMs will go underground and trade from hand to hand, at a price that reflects their true value. This has already started to a certain extent as PM dealers' prices veer away from the official or paper market price.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:36 | 1267666 JustPrintMoreDuh
JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

Bankstas say 0

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:40 | 1267668 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Wait for actual QE 3 to be announced.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:39 | 1267685 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

yes, it will go to 29.88, then reverse, steadily increase to 48.87, then it will retrace 68.8% in the following week, after which it will burst to 99.99...

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:42 | 1267701 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

God does, all else is guesses.  Not all guesses are equal though.  Good luck.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:26 | 1267960 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Thanks. I think I will buy a thousand ounces and see what happens. If it drops more I can buy some more cheaper, if it goes up I will at least have a little silver to keep my gold company lol.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:25 | 1267933 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

"does anyone know how low it will go..."


Well...that IS the question at the moment isn't it?


I am NOT an expert on these matters...and am not rich or connected enough to have any say or influence on it....


But, I would honestly say that we will probably take it back to about where we were at the beginning of the year - maybe the $25 - $27.50 range.

I bought the majority of my physical metals back in the fall of 2008 (October / November) -  This was when the world seemed to be falling apart around us.

Metal prices had just crashed and burned...similar to what is going on now...and if I remeber right, the paper gold price was being manipulated in a simlar fashion then - just like what is being done to silver now.

Also, if we look at what happened since the massive collapse in prices back in 2008 we see that things have not turned out so badly.  Hell, I kick myself all the time for not mortgaging the house and buying  silver.  haha

That was only a couple years ago....and if you bought silver after the MAJOR drop in 2008, you would be up about 400% right 2 1/2 years...NOT TOO shabby.

So...lets keep it all in context....and realize that PM"s are still what they have always been...a great store of value and a great hedge against theft of your wealth by inflation . . .enough said.




Thu, 05/12/2011 - 12:15 | 1268137 buck4free
buck4free's picture

I wouldnt be surprised if it hit $25/oz, bringing it right back in line where its been trading against gold the past 15 years.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:06 | 1273123 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Thanks to all those who answered my question. If anyone cares I bought a monster box of 1 oz maples this aft. $39.59 each + $49.49 commish + $10.50 delivery charge = $19854.99. Delivery on Wednesday.

So now I have some silver to keep my gold company. If it goes up, wow what a brain. If it goes down I will buy another box every $5 down.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:29 | 1267600 bobby02
bobby02's picture

And what percentage, pray tell, of global commodity trade volume is executed through CME?

The vast majority of trades are OTC. I'm not saying that margin hikes have no effect on pricing - they do, on the margin [sic] - but many commentators vastly overestimate their significance, imho.

O, and the Shanghai exchange thing was really funny. Yeah there's just tons of liquidity sloshing through that place. Why, isn't that were everyone gets their PMs?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:27 | 1267601 Math Man
Math Man's picture

I'll tell you guys when I buy Silver:  When the backwardation goes away. 

That means Carlos Slim and all the miners have decided the price has bottomed, and have stopped banging the back end of the curve like Tmosley in a prison shower.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:46 | 1267710 gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

ahahaha pwned

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:32 | 1267975 tmosley
tmosley's picture

8 weeks, 4 days.

Need anyone say any more?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:50 | 1267738 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, you think backwardation is bad for future prices.

Christ, it's like you've never even seen a silver chart before.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 10:53 | 1267752 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

The silver chart I see looks like the immediate aftermath of the Dresden bombing. It looks like the next event is a year long rape and pillage by the red army

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:28 | 1267972 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yup, paper longs have been DESTROYED.  Like I said they would.  I tried to warn them.  Some listened.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:29 | 1267978 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

When I see a chart get slammed down fast it usually recovers fast and goes on to new heights. When the big boys really want to hang the suckers by the heels and drain out every drop of blood they take it down slowly with many minor reversals and optimistic stories in the media. Then when the price hits bottom all the news stories are about how you should bail out because it is going down and never coming back.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:01 | 1267794 Slim
Slim's picture

I would also consider that miners in particular have some of the worst hedging records on the planet (speaking to gold mainly).  That said, if you can get a capitulation event out of them where they sell heavy volume forward to lock in prices during a decline (convinced, right or wrong that a bubble is popping and pricing will go away for an extended period), it will beat the living hell out of the market.  At that point, long-term buyers step in, there won't be many and you may not get the bottom but it's a damn nice entry point similar to oil bottom circa 2008 when suppliers hit it with everything they had.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 11:03 | 1267823 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Exactly.  Wait for the backwardation to reverse around $15, and start buying with both hands.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!