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Carbon Copy Commodity Crackdown Complete: And Now The Bounce And Another Margin Hike Frenzy?
And now the replica commodity crack down from last week is complete, with a near identical price action repeat of what happened last Thursday and Friday.
So will the comparable upcoming retracement drive the CME into yet another margin hike frenzy? Check back in one week.
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You sure about that? The May contract only trades for 2 more weeks, so the liqudity has really left there already. After that you've got contago into Jan 2012. Further out the contracts are so illiquid that I would be reluctant to draw any conclusions.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_globex.html
I only check after the close so you can make sure the times are the same on all the settlements...
Backwaration out to Dec 2015 was well north of a dollar last night.
I agree, imperfect analysis as longer dates are not very liquid.
Jul - 33.60; Sep .645; Dec .655
15 cents on a 33 handle isn't backwardation - it's just noise.
Again, longer dated contracts are illiquid - look at volume and open interest.
It's not that I necessarily disagree with you, but the data is simply not available to make that claim (or any other). All the volume is delibrately OTC, away from prying eyes, so clients can minimize leakage and agents maximize spreads. That's just the way it is.
I agree, most of the volume is delibrately OTC which makes the analysis difficult. Really, probably a bit too much room for error on that one. Similar to the premiums on Coins - you're only seeing a subset of the market, and it may or may not be telling the whole picture.
Virtually every natural resource fund is getting obliterated by Uncle Gorilla.
Bernanke will go down as the most daring, most creative central banker in world history.
First, he POMO's the market to death with QE programs, and vaults the S & P 500 by 100% off the 2009 lows.
Secondly, the rising stock prices combined with no mortgage payments for many created a self-reinforcing feedback loop that boosted consumer confidence and staged one of the biggest retail stock rallies of all time.
Third, instead of raising interest rates, he raises margin requirements on a plethora of commodities, effectively "whipping inflation" in a matter of days.
Clearly, this guy is a miracle worker when it comes to market manipulation.
I will add that this now sets up the S&P to break 1500 by year end.
We will do $100+ a share in earnings, back at the historical 14-15x multiple.
Why turn on CNBC when we have you and Robo here to guide us through this mess? How lucky we are to have you two experts on this board.
Did Robo tell you to drown yourself in molten silver?
My gold and silver holdings are just fine. You never listen to what is said to you.
ADHD much?
Bernanke will go down in history on all fours, giving Blankfein a blowjow while taking it up the ass from Dimon.
+1
But it won't stop the inevitable rise of China to superpower no. 1 status.
It's a mere tinkering around the edges and a tweaking of technicalities.
Because you can't print brilliant engineers, scientists and rare earth metals.
And you can't print millions of soldiers.
You might try to robotize your army, but this only works up to a certain extent.
Or do you think the Chinese will not be able to build an army of autonomous robots, on land, on sea and in the air ?
Please.
Probably a rhetorical question but i will answer it
Probably not in the next few decades.
Those must be silver bugs clapping in the audience. While Ben Shalom was goosing the stock market 100% off it's 2009 lows, he managed to ramp up silver 500%. Heckofa job Bennie.
Still sucking uncle b's dick I see..
They REALLY want to crush commodities and push retail money into Treasuries and Blue Chips.
Rollover and churn.
I'd bet an ounce of gold the TBTF banks are going to sell their a bunch of their long equity positions and buy commodities; anxious to trade places with retail investors who are seeking safety and return - as the big boys seek volatility to feed their HFT machines and algorithm's.
Amidst the commodities dump, gold has really held up well. Down <4%.
It's because Central Banks around the world own Gold and they will not tolerate Goldman Obama fucking with the price. China will not complain about the Silver COMEX manipulation because they buy physical in massive quantities and stockpile it for raw material needs.
Completely agree. Gold has hard support, since it is THE monetary metal. Silver is stockpiled by China, but as you correctly point out, mainly as an industrial metal. That is why I don't understand the trolling around here, in favor of Silver. It is volatile and not the metal of choice of the big boys (central banks, especially China, India, Russia, Mexico, etc.)
Agree 100%
You are wrong. Silver demand by the public in India and especially China is very strong. You have no idea what you are talking about.
Bay is right. Silver is a much more practical when fiat fails. Imagine breaking a gold oz for a tank of gas.
That's why my physical holdings include a lot more variety of silver denominations - halfs, quarters, tenths, etc.
You can buy gold by the gram.
Do you have any idea how small the fractional gold coins are and how easy it would be to lose them. A 1/20 th ounce is roughly $100, it is smaller than a dime, much smaller. I would never carry around such small coins cause losing one of them would be losing a lot of purchasing power.
A coin, any coin, is only as small as it needs to be, and can be made arbitrarily large if that would be more desirable or practical.
You complain that a 1/20 oz. gold coin would be "too small" --- but that is only the case if were minted with a high percentage of gold. Reduce the gold content to 10% or 1% or 0.01%, and even a 1/1000 oz. gold coin could be practical in everyday commerce. Or, a tiny and thin but high percentage gold "coin" could be embedded in a thin glass disc roughly the size and weight of common coins today. Or, the gold could be incorporated as a thin foil into a paper or plastic note, physically acting like paper currency today while still holding its full precious metal value.
You need to broaden your imagination.
gold is next.
The criminal banksters want to bash commodity prices down so when the next QE begins post-June the prices are not already at all time highs. The prices will still explode with news/rumours of the next QE.
Time was when a silver dealer could charge a $2 premium and have a steady business plan. If I were a dealer these days I would unload my physical asap and only sell by advance order. This whipsaw crap is for the birds.
Bull Call Spread = Price falls hard = buy back Short call option at little or nothing = unlimited upside potential left on long option = winning.
P.S. No margin requirement
I agree: with some hindsight, we are going to view these margin hikes as an admital that gaining control of valuable stuff on credit was ridiculous. And its going to deplete the amo of the naked short sellers too. Some volatility yes, and then real price discovery. If only we could have it with stocks and bonds!
A quick question. Is it possible that the Fed raises rates, yet announces QE3 at the same time? Like they raise rates 50bp and also continue buying treasuries, stocks, toxic shit assets, etc? What other tricks can they have up their sleeve? I read a few weeks ago here on ZH QE3 might go by a different name and be something like the Fed buying underwater mortgages. Lol.
By purchasing treasurys, the Fed is simply exchanging long-term bonds (a fed liability) for short-term bonds (Federal Reserve Notes, also a Fed liability). Net new financial assets remain constant. That's why QE2 has been a clusterf#ck.
When the Fed purchases MBS crap, Bennie exchanges short-term bonds (FRNs) for junk. The bank or other institution that was the holder of the MBS is no longer liable for a non-performing asset, so the liability has been extinguished. New financial assets are created. The problem with Ben purchasing more MBS or CRE trash is that the banks prosper but still won't lend because many SMBs and would-be customers are still insolvent.
A more palatable solution would be for Bennie and Timmy to mail out another check to taxpayers. Critics argue much of that cash would go toward paying down debts. While that may be true, paying down debt would by definition shorten the recession/depression. Some of the money would be spent on durables and consumables which would have a positive effect on the economy.
I wouldn't expect Bennie to raise rates in 2011.
If they mailed out checks and the public used the money to pay down debt then that would relieve the problem of not being able to borrow because of already being over extended.
So, if the money was not spent immediately it would increase credit and be spent in due course.
Mailing out checks is Bennie's fiscal policy of choice, but he's been captured by the big financials.
Funny you mention that.
The price volatility in silver has probably bankrupted most coin dealers. Remember Ampex offering to pay outrageous prices for Monster Boxes right at the top of the market.
That company must have gotten destroyed. The company's banks are probably calling in their credit lines as we speak due to borrowing base covenant violations.
+1 Lol
Many perceive empty dealer shelves as a sign of customer demand but imo much of it is dealer fear.
+1
How does I hedged prices?
Herp a durp.
Not true.
This happened in 2008. Nobody I know sold at $8-9. That is a fact. Lowest sales and prices I saw or heard about were around $12-15 if you could find any silver at all. Outfits like Tulving were completely sold out then. Local shops couldn't get any silver at all. I know one guy who sold his coin business after that fiasco as he was so upset about the clear manipulation to suppress the price.
It seems you have no memory on certain subjects. Why is that?
Come on, isn't it obvious by now that RobotLemming is really just Tyler in bankster drag, purposely goading us to draw out our ire and increase forum participation?
The artificial sockpuppet "RobotTrader" is just an officially sanctioned and carefully constructed pseudo-troll, a shill for the anti-shill if you will.
You think tyler is also hamy, sp66, tex, smales and all the other outrageous characters?
Am I all alone on this.forum? Just me and tyler?
Maybe i am also tyler? Am i real? Aaaaaugh!
Me and you and Tyler. I have even been accused of being a phony when I wrote a sarcastic reply to a ridiculous claim (giving a stupid answer to a stupid statement). I guess I am not deep enough into the tinfoil for this crowd, if there are still conspiracy theories too crazy for me to believe.
Actually it is kind of refreshing not being the craziest, or most paranoid one in the crowd.
before ZH there was no benchmark for batshit crazy
No, I think he is just RobotTrader here.
The others are either real bought-and-paid pro-bankster trolls, such as MethMan, mental defectives such as Spalding, or simply spoofs such as HamyWanger and, possibly, TexasGunslinger, although the latter one has been becoming more virulent in his anti-silver postings since his supposedly naive and religiously dogmatic opening bell here.
You just outed yourself as a know nothing. Dealers buy insurance so they do not lose when drops happen.
You should know this if you really were buying puts on Silver. Dealers, especially Apmex, never lose money on physical sales.
I believe it was referring to small time mom and pop dealers as was I. My dealer sold everything years ago and will not hold much for long anymore.
All of the dealers I deal with are hedged. You have to be utterly fucking stupid to be in that business without a hedge, whether its puts or a big stack of dollars in a safe. You have to have SOMETHING, or the volatility, even the normal volatility will kill you.
A silver dealer going out of business because of not hedging is like a grocery store going out of business because the price of wheat fell.
You have to be utterly fucking stupid to be in that business without a hedge, whether its puts or a big stack of dollars in a safe. You have to have SOMETHING, or the volatility, even the normal volatility will kill you...
My point exactly. Up until a few years ago it was a steady low overhead business. The shops around here are apparently not "sophisticated big wheels" like the people you deal with. However, they still have a place to go in the morning even if business is quite a bit slower. Both shops I use sold a long time ago at a huge profit.
There might have been people like that around here prior to 2008, but that even wiped them out, and I never met them.
The ones I deal with are always busy. Kind of a pain in the ass, actually. Sometimes I want to just sit down and have a nice talk, but can't really do that there, except on an exceedingly slow day.
Both are still in business. Both have huge safes, walk in vaults really, with 2' thick doors but with a much reduced standing inventory. I always shoot the breeze with them when I go in there except I haven't bought any silver in a long time.
Absolutely, the game is to clear out the speculators, and let the big banks take their positions. Gold is going to get nuked, because that's the seat the big banks want to sit in.
A good short term technical sign (if you can believe it) is that the MACD is not confirming the new low on the 60 min chart.
anyone else loading up on mining stocks here? seems a bit overdone here to say the least, but they will probably fall another 5% in my face, lol
I am tempted.
But i dont think the washout is thru.
Which probably means it is.
it's obvious math man is getting prompts from somebody who is involved in all the market manipulations.
he must think we're idiots and can be swayed by all his crap outpourings
he states that SLV is 100% backed by physical, how does he know unless JPM have told him
i've got 200,000 ounces in my shed
no, you can't see it
my mum has given me a piece of paper that says she's seen it
you can see that
fucking idiot
+200,000
Nahh. MM is not emotional in silver one way or the other. He is parroting anything you see in newsletters or other financial blogspots that take a neutral to negative view on silver.
From a trading perspective, the charts lean more to his way of thinking.
MM loves to post here because he likes to be the center of attention. tmo and some of the others give him all he needs. If he didn't get such attention, he'd slink away to another blog spot -- hell, he'd be the silver bull on a site if it would get him constant attention reinforcement.
Typical troll psychological behavior....
I don't know about that --- I get the strong stench of agenda-peddling from all of MethMan's trolling. If he were in it just for the attention, he would probably be resorting to personal attacks and extraneous comments instead, but his focus is laser-sharp on attacking silver and its advocates, and in attempting to separate physical silver from those who hold it. His purpose here is pretty clear to me.
Meanwhile, IMF whores within teh Greek government are determined to investigate the skull bashing of citizens by police.
I love that last bit, "expressed sorror."
They have no fucking sorror, and would slay their own people in order to keep the central planning utopia that is the EU intact.
Greek government pledges full investigation of protester's critical head injuriesBy Nicholas Paphitis, The Associated Press – 25 minutes ago
ATHENS, Greece — Greek left-wing groups and unions are planning a new protest Thursday amid condemnations of alleged police brutality after a protester was critically injured at an anti-austerity march in central Athens.
The 31-year-old underwent brain surgery and doctors said his condition remains life-threatening.
On Thursday, a group of youths occupied the central Athens University building from where the protest is due to start, replacing the Greek flag with an anarchist banner. A large black banner underneath read: "Murderers."
"The government bears full responsibility for the brutal and unprovoked homicidal attack," the Synaspismos left-wing coalition said.
The country's largest labour union, the GSEE, also issued a statement condemning "acts of police violence and the severe injury of protesters" at the rally, during Wednesday's countrywide general strike.
Greek authorities have often been accused of using heavy-handed tactics against protesters or immigrants. The fatal police shooting of a teenager in Athens in 2008 provoked two weeks of rioting that left hundreds of shops damaged.
The government has expressed sorrow at the protester's injuries and promised a full investigation.
This plunge in silver is really quite depressing...
Makes me actually want to burn down the Federal Reserve Project Mayhem style (Of course I won't be doing this so don't try and come breakdown my door... I will shoot!)
Should we be selling here? I don't want to lose everything. I still have financial obligations here in the short-term at college.
babyb,
You are in a fix. You bet your college money in the most speculative market, during the most speculative time in American history, and you bet against the most powerful and corrupt forces anywhere.
Your question alone tells me you need to stop trading and study the game. Nobody survives betting scared money in manipulated markets. Market pros are getting eaten alive on this battlefield. You have years to make money in the markets. This is a horrible time to try.
You need to cover and laugh it off as an education. You are going to lose everything playing silver even if you are eventually right about the eventual price direction. The big banks are going to squeeze and minipulate the market until they get what they want. Get out while you can.
It is just incredibly hard to justify exchanging pre-1965 Kennedy/Franklin halves for devaluing fiat currency.
I am new to this, so I don't have any experience 'timing' markets.
Thanks for the input, does the same go for Gold? I bought in around 1060 right about the time I started reading ZH and learning about how doomed we all are.
Selling at this point would be too late..... if silver is too volatile for your taste, wait until it went up a bit.... then, when the lights go red, you could convert to gold, which while also manipulated, does not move as drastically as silver. Then, if you're still interested in silver, wait for another dip and invest a smaller amount in silver.... and use it as "learning experience".
I hope the CME orchestrated beatdown in PMs is about over. Looking for it prices to bottom out and start going back up soon.
Bought silver on this pullback -- on the way down. Will buy more when a double bottom established and we start heading back up.
When hyperinflation hits in earnest you'll be happy you held on to your physical silver and gold.
If you can wait till the end of June I would. PM's normally recover for a short while during the summer and tend to trade in a small channel off their highs.
I'm not saying to sell. I'm saying don't gamble your college expense money. We will retrace after this assault on silver, but this isn't Friday. This is likely to continue through the weekend like the last one did. That's a whole lot of pain.
Gold: If you can afford to hold, and not be forced to sell to pay your bills, gold will eventually show an even bigger profit. However, they can keep driving it down for quite some time, so if you can't take the pain you know what to do. The worst thing you could do is to try and buy and sell and time it with no experience at trading. Nobody on any web site can do that for you.
Hang in there, Blythe Baby ! Grow your stack like a giant Sequoia grows it's rings......well maybe a little faster ! A cute kid like you who can help with the Hoarding Chores is quite a catch ! ................ I went to one of Michael Vick's dog fights - and a silver discussion broke out ! Monedas 2011 Commodity Jihad World Tour
Robot, you truly are a stupid fuckstick. APMEX actively hedges their ENTIRE inventory 24/7. They make 90% of their money on the spread.
++
Robo's already been outed. He really is the creepy perverted troll he desperately tries to conceal. And when he is not pumping and dumping equities, it is even more sickening (see below).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubpwmCai93g
Fuck the troll density has picked. Can't figure out why they are so keen to troll on silver if they are not in that game whats it matter to them? Shills? Sockpuppets?
BLERGH....
almost 50% of posts in this thread is spamming by fucking trolls!
GET THIS SITE AN IGNORE FEATURE NOW
-27 sock puppets
I can't see anything wrong with shorting this huge move down as long as you can handle the lack of sleep. It will just serve to give you a better entry point when this mess finally bottoms. Gold and silver have always traded with each other in any gold backed monetary system, all you have to do to find an example is look up morgan dollars on APMEX. The only question is what ratio would they exchange at. Could be more favorable to silver than now or less.
On my way to New Orleans, I'm going to stop at the Valero refinery and talk to a friend, a senior manager. I think the decision has already been made to allow the refinery to flood, albeit a controlled event. Nonetheless, the refinery would have to shut down. I also am going to speak with the sr. ACoE assigned to the site. This might be a huge opp to go gas.
whats the problem, sell on weds buy on fri. rince repeat until you have more fiat than you will even need for arse wiping purposes