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Carl Icahn Discusses A Schizophrenic Market, Sees "Bloodbath" Risk, Blasts REITs
Carl Icahn is pessimistic on the market, seeing a "real risk of a bloodbath," and hates REITs. Being a rational human being, who does not realize our precarious position vis-a-vis the Helicopter Ben's Banana Economy, expect another 1,000,000% rally in REITs. Some soundbites:
- "It's a myth to say the market is a good indicator of the economy."
- "I think that you have to be cautious. It's on a precipice right now and it could really go either way."
- "The market is schizophrenic at this point. So you have trillions of dollars literally in consumers hands, they don't want to spend it, they're afraid to spend it. And they put it in these funds - these funds will go buy... Real Estate"
- "Real Estate is a perfect opportunity to short it."
- "Take these REITs today: why would any individual buy a REIT that has underlying value of buildings that if you went to sell them you could never ever liquidate these portfolios."
- "I think there's overcapacity in the office market and in shopping centers because you have a secular change in the way retailers are behaving and the way consumers are behaving."
- "There is so much money going into these funds, that they have nothing to do than to buy."
- "The amateur investor is going to get hit badly again because they're pouring money into these funds. Some of these funds managers I do not think are experienced enough to handle some of the distressed stuff they're buying and they're going to get burned."
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1289565815&play=1
cnbc really messing up today
kirby daley : Economic Disneyland
great link!
"We cannot expect a V-shaped recovery without hitting a bottom, and what we did is we stopped, we stopped the fall with stimulus, and that has a cost down the road. SO we need to stop taking future potential growth for present gain."
We were robbed of a genuine capitulation, and that was a huge mistake. Capitulation is when wrongs are recognized and defaulted, cleanout occurs, attitudes are adjusted, and we can start anew.
We have a financial advisor friend (who doesn't have MULTIPLE financial advisor friends these days?) who was trying to sell us on REIT's about 3 months ago. Salesman. There are probably a few good ones (listen up, Cognitive), but most are used car salesmen.
Posted this in an unrelated thread last night, but here is an example of what I received yesterday:
Five properties. $290 million. Thirty days.
The Can’t Miss Web Call: How Behringer Harvard Multifamily REIT I
Turned Today’s Unprecedented Real Estate Buying Opportunities into Acquisitions
Host and Executive Vice President Jeffrey Schwaber will lead an interactive discussion with Mark Alfieri, Multifamily REIT COO, to examine Behringer Harvard’s recent industry-leading acquisition activity.
If you have ever utilized or want to learn more about non-listed REIT’s, this is a must-attend call.
Don’t miss this opportunity to learn:
• Why Real Capital Analytics named Behringer Harvard the most active buyer of multifamily assets in the United States.
• Why multifamily could soon become your favorite real estate asset class.
• How Behringer Harvard’s recent institutional acquisition activity may benefit your client
Thank you Jesus, they're buying some of our toxic shit and we're still to be paid to managing it.
A little symbolism and irony today. Nasa is preparing to shoot the moon; a concept already deployed by the federal reserve!!
What Karl is missing is it isn't retail investors driving up the stock market. It is buy bots trying to entice bagholders. But the volumes have been so low for months you can see the retail investors aren't going for it.
+1
Becky has that 'will you be my sugar daddy?' look on her face again. Guess it didn't work out with Warren.
I was thinking the exact same thing.
Oh, that look on her pwetty wittle face while she listens in complete rapture to Uncle Karl's prognostications...
Carl is probably right net, net but let's don't forget he wanted to buy WCI at what $21 so he ain't bullet proof..and if he's not willing to throw out any names does that mean he doesn't have established positions already? Anyhow, Becky is a sultry babe and maybe he was distracted..
Welcome to Zombieland.
One of the decent REITS out there was the Grubb & Ellis Healthcare REIT. It's been taken over by HTA but they are still pumping it hard. I think it's a little more difficult for Healthcare facilities, leased by doctors and hospitals, to go belly up. Not to say it doesn't happen or it can't but the dividend is attractive and if and when they buy back your shares is usually at a premium. The kicker is, alot of these are non-liquid....so if the dog doo hits the fan you can't bail.
Haven't seen any of the big, non-liquid REITS go belly up yet. Yet you hear a lot of doom stories on commercial real estate, starting to wonder if that market segment will ever melt down. Looks like the bailing wire and chewing gum they are using may hold..
Time will tell I guess.
CNBC allowed this on their airways? Maybe GE already sold them and hasn;t announced it yet?
I know a funny story about Carl and a certain young man who worked for a tree service that 'serviced' his estate in Bedford.
SavATree. LoL
Carl, why do you hate america by speaking the unvarnished truth. Haven't you realized our way to prosperity is lying, illusions, chicanery and obfuscation? There will be a nice cell for you in Guantanamo for you and all the dissidents, traitors and terrorists.
Get with the program Mr. Icahn.
America FUCK YEAH! Printing, devaluing and deluding ourselves to prosperity.
Cheers,
Pigpen
Looks like Carl missed the ride setup by Uncle Sam and GS!
Looks like Carl missed the ride setup by Uncle Sam and GS!
Bloomberg highlighted that increased demand for yachts, might be a sign the recession is over : )
I might go long. I'll check what Cramer says first!
Meanwhile, Sunrise Assisted Living ramps 30%, ignoring all the warnings from the naysayers....
I smell a deal involving GS... But Sunrise is still a zero equity stock; their pain is long from over.
Have to fade him. Why else would he be on TEEVEE?
Isn't he usually secretly accumulating Chrysler stock or something like that until he comes on TEEVEE with the news?
As a counterpoint, Real Estate is a great inflation hedge if you think we will have high inflation down the road. As far as REITs go the bogey man down the road is the CMBS refi's in the next 3 years. The good news is a lot of public reits raised capital in the 2nd quarter. Part of the massive seloff in them was that the markets would be closed to them , this proved not the case. I do think they are overvalued and would not be a buyer, but now is not the time to be short. I would wait until they start going down.
i think it would be safer buying puts on 30 year bonds.
empty or nonperforming real estate is the worst asset you can own. Used water down the toilet is close to equivalent value. Ichan didn't miss anything, as the junk debt he bought made a lot more than the stock market and was priced to yield well in the double digits when he bought it. Stocks are priced to yield 2% and if we deflate, that will go down to a negative number. In the meantime, Ichan is selling out with a gain of 100% or more.
In other news, it always seems like he got involved with companies that ended up busted. I have never figured out where this guy keeps getting money.