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  • China's Fragile Economy, Its Housing Bubble, and What It Means To Us: Download
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    03/20/2010 - 00:41
    As promised, here is the complete article, "China's Fragile Economy, Its Housing Bubble, and What It Means To Us," in a downloadable PDF. You can download it, print it out, and read the entire piece at your leisure. The conclusions aren't encouraging, for them or us.
  • Europe's Commercial Real Estate Timebomb?
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Carry Trade Implosion Precipitates Robotic Selling Into Close As 1,055 ES Level Breached

Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2010 16:13 -0500



Attempts by carry traders to redeem some P&L after a month of agony crashed and burned promptly, accelerating into the close as the Yen funding unwind killed not just the carry pairs but broader equities. Of particular note is the hurt experienced by AUD longs funded with either USD or JPY.

It is officially time for Goldman to enter the stop losses on its various carry trades. The pain for the (leveraged) BRLJPY trade has now become unbearable.

The market took out the Friday's ES VWAP close and robotic selling panic set in.

This is what a perfectly uncorrelated market looks like. Sarcasm off.

Time to officially bury the Dow 10,000 v2.

5
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by ShortStack
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:20
#222495

BZLJPY? something just went right over my head :/

by Anonymous
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:24
#222503

My guess would be long brazillian real/short
japanese Yen.

by Daedal
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:20
#222496

I'm saving my money for Dow 8,000 2.0

by Chopshop
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 17:01
#222556

bounces aside ... have daydreams of actually buying to actually buy, at DJ ??

let's see ~ 777 INDU - 8.12.82

let's see ~ 666 INX - 3.6.9

will be fun to see where we'll all be buying the INDU / INX (and Sensex) next (in 2015) ... since the ES and YM will long-since have been eliminated (no one's getting paid off below 2780 DJ on short deriv's). welp, only a few years til we find out!

Daedal: 8,200 DJ cash is a pivotal level to close below on the weekly for lame-ass institutional allocators that will beget a bounce, but the 2nd time under will beget blood.

by Chopshop
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 17:03
#222557

f'ing haste + save button.

good look, TD. thanks for it.

by Anonymous
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:23
#222501

A plethora of issues coming to the surface at the same time.

We just one more to go boom. More tightening by China may send risk assets down the tubes.

by nonclaim
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:24
#222502

It should be BRLJPY. L not Z, as in Brazilian Real, the local currency.

by ShortStack
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 17:12
#222567

Yea I didn't want to be pretentious and assume that it was a typo -- I gave him the benefit of the doubt that it was some reference to a hip acronym that I didn't quite have the loop to know.

by Zina
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 20:31
#222800

For me, it's not BZL, or BRL, it's just R$. A caipirinha in Osasco costs R$ 2.50 ...

by abalone
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:24
#222504

No Monday pump...no dead cat bounce...no short covering...no where else to go except down maybe!

by DaveyJones
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:37
#222530

Someone forgot to tell the Fed there's only nine lives.

 

by Rainman
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 19:15
#222714

Uh.....PPT is snowed in. Maybe back Thursday.

by LoneStarHog
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:28
#222508

Just pull the threads on the comma and final zero.  They will be accurate during the next leg of this Bear Market.

Be sure to send one to CNBS, especially Cramerica.

by buzzsaw99
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:28
#222509

Stocks are for asshats.

by Anonymous
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:30
#222512

I suppose Leo K. and Bob Doll were active buyers - after all as Bob Doll expects the S&P to hit 1250 !!

by Noah Vail
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 17:14
#222571

They said Marla was the foil. I think Leo is.

by Anonymous
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:32
#222517

Wonder if Chief Investment Strategists are held accountable to their forecasts ? Its no wonder that Abby Cohen (GS) and Bob Doll (BLK)are still employed !!

by Anonymous
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:32
#222519

Do we have a short term rally back to 1,100, giving people just one last chance to get out? Or are we in break down mode already?

I told a loved one to get out of stocks when I saw them over the holidays. In classic fashion, the response was, "I just need a little more to get back to even, then I'll sell."

Ugh.

by Anonymous
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:34
#222523

Why Daedal why Dow 8000, why not Dow 4000-4500 ? I mean thats where this thing really needs to be does it not ? And btw Greenspan chimed in saying that he would be worried for the economy if stocks sank further !! I wonder why Alan ? I mean isnt the stock market supposed to reflect the economy and not the other way around ??

by Comrade de Chaos
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:39
#222533

TD,

 

any nice graphs illustrating the money flow (outflow) from the PIGS, STUPID's and related themes?

 

by Anonymous
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:40
#222534

Does the " for explanation" on that bloomberg terminal explains what's going on in the world based on that charts?

If yes robot-traders have a great future!

by Anonymous
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:46
#222539

DOW 4000 anyone?

by Misthos
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 16:51
#222546

Pimps up, Hoes down...

Oops..  Gold's up, Dow's down

by dark pools of soros
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 17:07
#222561

Gold Paper followed the Dow....  makes ya think

by Anonymous
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 17:11
#222565

Was the PPT snowed in today? Or maybe just asleep at the switch.

by Anonymous
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 17:13
#222568

Welcome back Bear Market... look at the chart.

http://midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com/2010/02/welcome-back-bear-market.html

by Liberdadedescolha
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 17:14
#222570

Welcome back Bear Market... look at the chart.

http://midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com/2010/02/welcome-back-bear-mark...

by Hephasteus
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 17:43
#222619

Na. They'll just call Dell and turn it around.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPejYdBM11I&feature=related

by carbonmutant
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 17:27
#222586

Are they going to blame what happens next on Ahmadinejad's claims of a harsh blow to the "global arrogance" for Feb 11?

by Mr Lennon Hendrix
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 17:36
#222605

Yes.

by Mr Lennon Hendrix
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 17:35
#222602

Correction, thats my erection!

Black and gold....and silver up!  Hoes down! 

by lawton
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 18:42
#222703

LEO must not have bought on the dip today like Friday...

by jedwards
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 19:07
#222707

Anyone check out the Commitment of Traders report from last week?

Man, at some point there is going to be too much pain for all those commercial players to bear and then will start dumping their positions that they loaded up on over the last several weeks.  Only about 5 more weeks left in the SPH0, I can't believe they will ride this out to the very end.  I wonder what that level will be, 1030?

by Thalamus
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 19:58
#222756

It feels good being short overnight again.  The PPT must be on a mandatory vacation since the dems lost MA.  

by Anonymous
on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 23:16
#222926

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Lucy

http://forextradin-g.net

by Anonymous
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 01:38
#222994

Market is accelerating to the downside. Objective: get prices as low as possible before public liquidation begins. It is fascinating to watch how price action is used to control public opinion/emotion. We're, what, 8%? off the highs of just a couple of weeks ago and most people don't even know the market has corrected. Late day rally Friday was to keep the market decline out of the newspapers over the weekend; to further dealy panic selling. I expect big gap openings ahead; 10%+ down days. Good luck everyone.

by Grand Supercycle
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 07:59
#223081

 

This market has support and more counter trend rally looks likely.  SP00/DOW downtrend on the daily chart continues.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

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