You're now on the archive server. Commenting has been disabled.
Carry Traders Start Off 2010 With A Whimper
Following the crowd, and going long the Brazilian Real while shorting the Yen has had some disastrous results for carry traders: starting off 2010 with a 9.2% loss is never a good thing to show your boss.
(chart courtesy of Macro Man via CreditTrader)
In the mean time the dollar is back to August 2009 levels.
At what point will the carry'ers decide to throw in the towel and actually cover losing positions and book the losses? Look for some serious move in FX markets when that moment finally occurs.
»
- 3433 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
Similar Articles You Might Enjoy:
- RBS Busted On Libor Manipulation: "its just amazing how libor fixing can make you that much money"
- Carry Trade Implosion Precipitates Robotic Selling Into Close As 1,055 ES Level Breached
- Daily Highlights: 4.26.10
- Euro Goes Vertical, Stocks Not Following, Waiting For MSM To Come Up With A Reason
- USDJPY Flash Crashes As All Support Taken Out - Record Collapse
If you look at how the market is trading, it's not really going anywhere. It's actually going down. You can't buy and hold anymore. You have to be in and out. I've been following stocks and I notice there is no conviction to go long.
Brazilian big banks are short the dollar and the central bank is the biggest bull and buying almost everyday since 4 months ago.
I'll love to see how that is gonna end if things blow up.
sooner than you think...
bottom bottom ? put a sac of SI on $666 - 681 for me, please.
otherwise we've got a lot of floors left before even cracking $1040.
FTU 2 days back said 1073.60 GC; daily stunt low of 73.2.
if personal internet will stop sketching out might get a quick one up.
min intra-day VIX bounce tgt met as it looks like a baby bull flag riding its 1/55 EMA ... still just fuelling for a long march higher in the larger context.
Bin Laden urges abandoning dollar: Al Jazeera tape !!!
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60S2YV20100129
guess he knows what he is doing....unlike the financial terrorists !!
China and Japan may be another killing field potentially depending on how traders bet on sanctions against alleged undervaluation: http://crisismaven.wordpress.com/2010/01/26/economic-fallacy-i-harmful-c...
Actually for today(and taking from TD's observation yesterday),one can trade the EUR/JPY instead of the SPX. I mean they so mimick each other,so why does anybody even bother with trying to buy a single stock,if in the end of the day,it will all depend on some other corelation?
But hey,that surely beats printing by the ECB,since the Germans are so adamant on not doing so. But instead,using the Greek fiasco to drive down their currency. However and fundementaly,can anybody tell me why would the dollar go up,despite the persistent trade deficit even in the midst of worse recession?. It fails me,but hey since Jim Rogers changed his position on the ole buck(back in DEC) I would have to take that ot the bank.As that is the only person that I would follow if I am to follow anyboy's word...
I always thought that the German lack poltically when it comes to foxy moves. But may be this time they are outmanouvering the FED and the JCB. By insisting that there would be no bailout,they managed to finally drive their Euro down without having to print(like BB),or making money available to at .1% like Japan. So now what?I guess Japan would have to lend GS and pay them interest so they are able to drive their yen down,and BB would have to buy a couple of trillions more in (pick your choice)to throw the ball at the Germans again. In the meanwhile,the fate of the S&P hangs between the EUR/JPY,and the EUR/USD. Isn't there any real local buyers for those shares beside carrytraders(lol)?
Interesting that Mr Macro didn't list the dollar. Too scary, I suppose.
er, the base currency is the USD...
I'm laughing at my own dumb-assification right now.
Losses, sport. Nothing ruins my day more than losses. Now you do good, you get perks. Lot's and lot's of perks....
From mid 2009 onwards, I warned of a USD rally (it has much further to go too)
Daily and weekly charts are now bullish.
UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0