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Case Shiller Comes In Better Than Expected; House Prices Increase... As Of Two Months Ago
The two month delayed Case Shiller index came in at 4.4% for Q2, after having fallen 2.8% in the first quarter. Nationally, home prices are 3.6% above their year-earlier levels. In June the Y/Y change for the Composite 20 portion of the index was 4.23% on expectations of 3.6%, with the previous 4.61% revised to 4.64%. Again, as this index shows how the economy performed almost a quarter ago, this can and should be completely ignored. Furthermore, the non-seasonally adjusted index came in at a far more somber 2.3% increase, but this number too is irrelevant. Obviously, nobody has explained the definition of lagging indicators to the computers trading the SPOOs, so this headline was enough to push futures a few handles higher, even though we have much more coincident data that show just how bad housing has been in July already. But who cares. Just give Atari an excuse to do its positive feedback loop thing.
More from the release:
Data through June 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index rose 4.4% in the second quarter of 2010, after having fallen 2.8% in the first quarter. Nationally, home prices are 3.6% above their year-earlier levels. In June, 17 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were up; and the two composites and 15 MSAs showed year-over-year gains. Housing prices have rebounded from crisis lows, but other recent housing indicators point to more ominous signals as tax incentives have ended and foreclosures continue.
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I'm just not seeing the home price appreciation. Anyone?
Come to NYC. It's like there was never a recession at all. They are still building McCondos all over Brooklyn and Manhattan and selling them for INSANE prices. I simply do not understand how this holds up but it has and it seems to be continuing.
NYC and DC (and the environs thereabouts) always seem to be anomalies as can be said for the silliness out Cali way. The 'fly-over' country however is where the lack of action lay.
Point not noted by Tyler is that the Case Shiller is also showing the effects of the tax credit which lead to some silliness that has since worn off.
Just more evidence that the bottome is no where near yet...
In Nassau County, Long Island (New York) we saw an uptick in the 2nd quarter in prices and demand....But it was VERY SMALL. So far in Q3 I can say there are tons of newe homes that have gone on the market and pricing is once again under pressure. THings are getting bad again, but not yet showing up in the hosuing numbers themselves.......They will. On a trip around the neighbor hood this weekend, I noticed 17 new homes for sale and only 1 home with a sold sign. The new homes going up for sale are empty, but do not indicate a bank sale. There is defnitley NO ONE living in most of these homes. Not Good...NOT GOOD AT ALL.
it is what it is.. a nice little bump to let anyone grab a refi with 4.x% interest
the bottom end in socal has moved up since 2009. spec buyers selling to first time buyers using their 8K credit. that party is about over (margins getting too tight) except for the very brave. overall, based on lending trends, its all about refi's now.
HELLO?? remember WAY back when there was a last dash to get the home buyer tax break?? that small surge is what is being reported there.. which is why right NOW is the best time to refi to grab the lowest rates and STILL able to show decent local home prices for appraisals ... YES it is all going to fall down.. doesn't mean you shouldn't game the system if you are in a position to do..
also, i wish all the commenters that have their rural bunker paid off would list that next to their name so we can see what context they see the world...
"which is why right NOW is the best time to refi to grab the lowest rates and STILL able to show decent local home prices for appraisals"
Good point, and one that gets overlooked by some of the borrowing public. A low rate does nothing, if the value on your home isn't there. For those that are holding out for the "bottom" in rates, get while the gettin' is good (read: now). And if rates drop substantially, again, refi. (assuming values are still there). Cheap insurance against the potential for a continued drop in home prices. FYI - rates are up a little this week. they'll settle again.
Rumormongering about the Unpopularity of Political Leaders Has Become a National Sport in China
http://israelfinancialexpert.blogspot.com/2010/08/stratfor-explains-rumormongering-about.html
yeah... politicians used to be SOOOOO popular.
I wonder how much they spend on that market study to figure that one out...
CASHTJING BABY!!! IMMENINT RALLY!!!!!
You didn't bail Friday?
Jeez, I did.
I do not like to carry exposure into Monday either way, long or short, unless I'm walking way above the waves (which happens but not that often). :-)
I believe I can fly
I believe I can touch the sky
I think about it every night and day
Spread my wings and fly away
I believe I can soar
I see me running through that open door
I believe I can fly
I believe I can fly
I believe I can fly
- R Kelly
Would the rampjob in ES 30 minutes before market open be any less unfair if it was done with low frequency trading? How about if it was done by guys waving slips of paper, screaming at the tops of their lungs?
The problem isn't the speed of the computers, the network connections, or the rate of quotes. The problem is that the Fed keeps dumping money out of helicopters in an attempt to create DOW 36,000!
This is a problem that could be solved by DEregulation. Get regulators out of the money business and let people choose what to use for money in a free market.
Got gold?
The Case Shitter Index should be canned.
So this would say we are in the "Fall of Recovery"? I coined it first Timmay, so you have to pay me $1B each time you and your d-bag cohorts say it.
Case-Shiller is such a bad indicator even if it is up or down. We know it is going down from the sugar high of the tax credit, and the there is a glutton of shadow inventory sitting there waiting to be put on the market. To top all of that off, we have a very large cherry of people defaulting now and in the near future. The housing market will get much worse before it improves.
Lol Atari. Didn't they go bankrupt recently?
I remember Schiler has warned several times over the past 6-9 months that the reason prices are going up is because the mix of houses going thru forced sales has moved from sub-prime (lowest prices) to middle and upper price point houses.
Residential RE prices are higher? Sure. Next month's revised data will take care of that misunderestimation.
I could raise the price on our house to $5Billion, doesn't mean anybody will buy it at that price (unless they work for the Federal Govt, that is!)
wait until the markets jump after chicago pmi is better than expected. the "analysts" really set the bar low on that one!
+1
The War over 1040 will continue.
the more they bang that number, the thinner the number of buyers there are.
but those stop loss orders under 1040 are getting much larger.
futures almost got green this morning. when are we going to have a nice 3 or 4% down day? It's just what this market needs, a good crap.
Well that will make housing more affordable..not!
Funny how the home prices are stable, yet, the quantity of homes sold has continued it's downward slope. Moral of the story: bullshit accounting/valuation destroys liquidity, and liquidity destruction is the driver of the delta between the official micro and macro story and our actual experience. This applies to to the valuation of all asset classes.
I bet we get another super-ball bounce off of 1040 today.
check
The more current mortgage applications figures tell the story of where we are now.
Location...
Case Shiller is not always stupid, but it is an urban index, and as several have commented here, a few urban centers full of bureaucrats and corporate drug pushers, er, medical professionals, are doing well. Its the other 90 percent of the country where things are falling off a cliff.
Spent last weekend at Ocean Isle, NC. New condos three stories tall, three blocks deep, thousands of them..., forty miles from any jobs, 140 at least from any serious jobs. This shit is unsalable at any price. At the height of the season about 15 % occupancy, and for sale signs on 25%. My theory is that century 21 ran out of signs.
Just be careful trading SPOO.
Worse than expected Chic PMI number elicits decent move up. Down is up, doncha know.
We live about 120 miles north of NYC near Saratoga.
Stat's around here are just nutty. YOY home sales are down by 1/3 to 1/2.
In most counties though the medium selling price is actually rising.
It looks like two housing markets around here. The big money is fine as always but the working class is struggling. Low priced homes don't appear to be selling much at all.
Too much fear and unemployment?
I can see my property tax assessment going up next year as the 2011-2012 rates are based on what homes were thought to be worth by the local assessor as of July 1, 2010. How convenient!
Mr. R
I call bullshit.... Read below: Sorry can't copy link:
As Predicted, June S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Overstate Housing Market Strength
New York, NY - August 31, 2010 - As predicted in the RPX Monthly Housing Market Report for June 2010, the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices show healthy improvement in home prices while other housing market indicators, including the RPX Composite price, show that housing markets are starting to weaken.
In Radar Logic's latest RPX Monthly Housing Market Report, released last Thursday, we predicted that the unadjusted S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City composite index for June would be 161, and the 20-City composite index would be 148. Standard and Poor's announced this morning that the actual unadjusted 10-City composite index value was 161.04 and the actual unadjusted 20-City composite index was 147.97.
Both the 10-City and 20-City S&P/Case-Shiller composites expressed considerable growth on a year-over-year basis. The 10-City composite index increased 5% and the 20-City composite index increased 4.2% year over year. We believe that these figures overstate the current strength of the U.S. housing markets. As we reported in this month's RPX Monthly Housing Market Report, the RPX 25-MSA Composite Price declined 0.2% through the end of June on a year-over-year basis. We believe the RPX Composite better captures the current stagnation of the U.S. housing markets and is more consistent with the weakness apparent in other recent housing market indicators, such as new and existing single-family home sales.
The conflict between the strength expressed in the S&P/Case-Shiller indices and the weakness apparent in other housing market indicators likely arises from the fact that the S&P/Case-Shiller indices are calculated using data from transactions that occur over a three-month period. As a result, the indices smooth over recent price movements and can take a number of months to reflect price fluctuations.
Clearly, burgeoning inventories will continue to put downward pressure on housing values. Our concern is that, as we saw in spring 2009, the only effective stimulus of new housing demand will prove to be a precipitous decline in home prices. Our current analysis shows early signs that such a dynamic is approaching.
The complete June 2010 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report is available for sale on Radar Logic's website. A complimentary executive summary is available with registration. To register, click here.
About Radar Logic
Radar Logic Incorporated, a real estate data and analytics company, calculates and publishes the Radar Logic Daily™ Prices. The prices track housing values for major U.S. metropolitan areas and are the basis of the Residential Property Index™ (RPX™), a market that enables real estate to be traded as a liquid asset, via property derivatives marketed by major financial institutions. RPX allows real estate and financial professionals to manage opportunity and risk, invest in real estate values without owning physical assets and effectively analyze markets using a consistent metric: price per square foot.
For more information on Radar Logic and the RPX, including licensed dealers, please visit www.radarlogic.com.
Media Contact: Quinn Eddins, Radar Logic Incorporated, 212-965-9982, qeddins@radarlogic.com.
$Million, 1100sq.ft. bungalows in Mountian view have dropped to $998K...
Lets not forget that we got the government and the FED backstopping all these mortgages via Fannie and Freddie. This is just another office of the ppt keeping the dream alive.
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