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Case Shiller Confirms House Market Deterioration Accelerates
The Case Shiller Home Price index declined to 145.47% YoY compared to 146.64 previously. The Composite-20 Index increased 0.59% YOY on expectations of a 1.0% Increase, prices in Q3 dropped by 2.0%, with a 0.8% drop in September. In absolute terms, the Composite-20 index is back to December 2007 levels. Then again, this is data as of September so it merely confirms that the housing double dip as of three months ago was accelerating. From the release: "Another weak report; weaker than last month. The national index is down 1.5% from the third quarter of last year and 15 of 20 cities are down over the last 12 months. Other than Tampa, FL, there are no new lows this month but many analysts will argue that a double dip will be confirmed before Spring. While some of the bad numbers may reflect the end of the government’s tax incentive for first time homebuyers, there are other problems weighing on the housing market.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. “The national economy is certainly the number one issue for housing. Additionally, there is a large supply of houses on the market and further, hidden, supply due to delinquent mortgages, pending foreclosures or vacant homes. New construction is running at less than half the pace needed to meet normal demand, so a sustained recovery could be a ways off." And that's from S&P.
An absolute view of the index:
And a YoY Change comparison:
The housing re-recession is here.
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QE3 here we come, with SMP2.0 to whet our appetites.
PMs to the moon.
only a 23 month supply?
23 month supply assuming some wild home buying frenzy market. May as well call it a 5,000 year supply.
Lets see... due to the shrinking size of electric appliances, houses now FEEL bigger than before, hence we shall introduce hedonics into the equation. Considering 1.0 houses sold in 1990, this will now be considered 1.4 houses sold today, hence the supply figure is only 16 months. Furthermore, of the houses in supply, 30% need repair work done, so that means we're down to 11 months worth of actual housing supply (the remaining are "work opportunities").
Of the 11 months, 2/5 have recently been viewed. We shall consider viewed houses as off market, as they MIGHT theoretically have been sold already.
So, there, we REALLY only have 6 months worth of supply on market.
RALLY TIME!
Hedonics for the statistics, stimulus for the budget and austerity for the others.
and Alt-A and Option ARMS are just starting to kick in.
Good night America, Europe, UK, Japan, China and pretty much any country with fiat currency.
Didn't the housing meltdown crash the banking system? So if the housing sector collapses again, why aren't people afriad for the banking sector this time?
Off topic...
Since Senator Olympia Snowe and Senator Sherrod Brown are trying to get a bill together to force China to re-value their currency, will the future be so kind as to refer to it as the "Brown-Snowe" act? That would be pretty funny for kids to learn in history class in 50 years.
China has their own problems and most likely will ignore this....or a trade war will break out. The end of the year could be very interesting.
"Brown Snowe" LOL!
I met both Senator Snowe and Collins back in a previous life 10 years ago in Maine when I was a partisan against Gore. They are what is wrong with the country. Career politicians that have accomplished nothing over the many decades in public life. She was for every bailout for the bankstas along with every never ending war under clinton-bush. The problem is the same as here in NY. The same idiots keep voting for the same snakes over and over, then have the nerve to complain why are things this bad, what is going on. The majority will always get what the deserve. As they should. "Brown-Snowe" act is very fitting indeed.
Remember the last time DC got all uppity about China revaluing their currency a month ago....we got 'airplane contrails' from the ICBM off California.
the Chinese will wipe their ass with this congressional act.
fine junk me , you know its the truth.
More deniers junkin.
on ZH, junk = 'recommend'
I know the unions want it, but if Congress were to ever levy tariffs against Chinese goods, all it would do is pull the cover off of inflation and destroy what little purchasing power Americans have left.
The whisper market continues to grow, and more and more expensive homes are hitting the market in California - Connecticut.
Friend in SF selling hers -- price reduced from 1.4 to 1.2. One of the stronger markets in the country.
In the Bay Area there is still plenty in the $500K-1mil range, but a lot more $1-3 mil than in the past 2 years, and continual reductions in price, and those that close are almost always 20-30% below price originally sought. Also, a first in Lafayette - an $8.5 mil.
In the Bay Area, at least in the South Bay, specifically, Cupertino, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Los Gatos - it's all driven by the API scores of the schools.
You can't buy anything decent for under $1,000,000
Here is a sample definition of "decent" -
More than 2,000 square feet, on at least a 6,000 square foot lot
I am seeing more and more homes in the $800k to $1.5 million range being listed in the South Pasadena and Arcadia, California region. They are not moving. The people are finally waking up realizing the reinflated bubble is about to burst and are hoping to get out with something, anything. People are attempting to downsize and finding no buyers.
Same for the multi-million McMansions of the Newport Beach Coast area. Incomes just don't cut it without the gimmick financing of the " the good old days ".
www.doctorhousingbubble.com
There is that double dip. Housing to be a leading indicator?
Foreclosure rate will increase in the new year as many owners opt to skip the mortgage payment in favor of gifts under the tree.
So at what point does the Fed not only buy the RMBS, but the homes behind them as well?
This is not the worst idea in the world.
So Uncle Sam becomes a landlord for a couple decades.
They said retail will soar because people aren't paying those mortgage payments and buying uggs and iPads.
What's the problem?
"New construction"??? I realize that builders build, that's what they do, but with something like 19 million empty housing units in the U.S. how much new construction do we need. And how does adding supply into an over-supplied market firm up prices??
My captcha question: "one times -34". Boo yah.
And ridicule for China's empty cities . . .
Though in China's case, one would expect the socialist masses to be moving into all that empty living space. What's up with that, anyway??
What's up with that is that the average citizen in Mongolia or wherever that empty city is located can't afford the empty apartments. And empty apartments in China are never rented because a "used" apartment is worth less than an empty one.
Speaking of new construction -- I was running a search yesterday on Trulia and saw a builder had reduced the asking price on a new house from $1,047,000 to $622k. When they started building in this neighborhood a couple of years ago, they were asking $1.2M for the lowest price houses. This house is one of the biggest models, so it was originally priced much higher (probably $1.8M+). The lower priced models that started at $1.2M are now asking in the $500K's.
Here is a link to Redfin that has the old price: http://www.redfin.com/MD/CLARKSVILLE/LOT-107-PREAKNESS-CIRCLE-Ln-21029/h...
Same house on Trulia: http://www.trulia.com/property/3035373918--Preakness-Circle-Ln-12f-Clark...
This should answer your question:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/home-sales-distressing-gap.html
I have cheap swampland for sale in Louisiana for anyone interested in owning land the government will never want to steal!
Will sell for serious buyers with Gold and Silver as payment...will also accept heads of bankers, corrupt politicians, Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke and Nancy Pelosi as well!
Call now!!!
You can sure get lost in the Louisiana Bayou.
If you invest in a thermal imaging protection suit it may be one of the last safe places to fight WWIII.
Looks like we're going to open right near the 50 day moving average in SPY at 117.85.
I just realized Obama was really saying, "Change you can bleed in"
Does anyone know if Obama or Bernanke started taking violin lessons?
I understand they are auditioning the "fat lady" part.
We need Harry to put a positive spin on this data... in the spirit of comic relief.
My captcha question: "Harry's IQ = 0.00". Boo yah.
Should be interesting with the China, Canadian, European, Australian and US housing bubble bursting at the same time.
Good thing that banks make their Q3's on declining loan loss reserves.
What is symbol again for the short john paulson recovery fund ETF?
When we see Erin Burnett break down in tears on air, then we'll know its shit hit the fan time.
See the Neg Canada GDP?
Canada? I thought they were doin great! Whoever thought CANADA was havin problems?
That was sequential and it was -.1%.
Chicago PMI better than expected.
Markets turning, don't worry be happy.
Oops, to be negated by Consumer Confidence at 10am.
You can't even get a free coke or a finger sandwich at the open houses anymore.
US in the grip if biflation as housing price and owner equivalent rent counts for over 40% of CPI. Meanwhile price rises for essential inputs and services will rise following Asia's lead.
I just made a stop at WalMart and it was virtually deserted (this is a mega-24 hour store.) I'm wondering if the end of extended unemployment benefits is starting to show (Michigan, county unemployment rate 12%.)
Housing costs hold down inflation for a rather good reason: the surveys of households indicate very clearly that it is a huge portion of monthly budget. Why would it therefore not hold down inflation? It is what it should be.
There is deflation. Not inflation. Housing is why. There is no fix visible. If Bernanke really wanted to fix the overall problem, he should have bought houses rather than MBS. Put a floor under the prices of houses and people would buy.
Goverment should give you a free house in return for any future Social Security claims
Looking at the Case-Shiller from 1890 onward indicates that the mean (intended to be 100) is actually about 110. Even so, this means that we need a combination of housing price declines and inflation increases in the area of 35% to get back to the mean.
However, since the measure of inflation (not actually sure what measure of inflation case-Shiller uses) is seemingly vastly understated because it does not take into consideration food and energy prices (and housing costs do), we might in reality be closer to the mean than the statistics currently indicate.
Trust fund drips are going to worth less and less going forward because of Bernanke and his printing press! Give me 3.5% on my Treasuries or give me death! Unless of course you can bequeath your income generating flat on the upper West side then I'll settle for a stubbed toe.
Case-Shill er is a pig with lip stick.
The housing market remains nicely bifurcated between capitulated and not-yet-capitulated segments, thanks to government support. The best chow is to be had where you can buy from the former and sell to the latter.
Fierce Freelancer takes us through a short-sale...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssl5yb7FewA&feature=player_profilepage