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Not! Stagflation was a term designated to describe the 1970s, a time when housing prices were skyrocketing. Clearly not the case in this economy. Also in the 1970s wage inflation was considered a key cause of general inflation. Clearly not the case today. And sequential GDP growth was higher then
It's not any kind of -flation. It's a bubble popping and price normalization. Someone tell the Fed their job isn't to reflate bubbles. The sheeple actually like it when 60% of their take home pay doesn't go to their mortgage.
Stagflation is when unemployment and inflation are high. Like now.
Stagflation does not adequately describe what is going on today. Wrong diagnosis will engender wrong treatment. This is not like the 1970s stagflation which Ben's idols, Milton Friedman, Volcker and Greenspan made their careers out of dealing with. If we fail to recognize the key distinctions, then the economy will go even further south since the treatment is now aggravating rather than helping the problem
Who cares, Ben is here. And didnt you know? The economy is self sustaining now!
Ben's simply not blowing asset bubbles hard enough ...blow Ben, blow.....
Deflation Benny-Bitchez, Deflation
Considering how much Case-Shiller is used in housing futures, it should come as no surprsie that it is as inflated as BLS numbers. People just like to say "Case-Shiller." It makes it sound very important. A ton of data is missing in these indices. Right now I can think of 10 pocket listings in my home town that never made it onto MLS and therefore the 10-30% cash discounted sales prices will never make it on anyone's radar as sold comps - and you use known comps to write the offers. Market still overpriced 20% never mind the 2 year shadow inventory. Look to the local rents for value.
As more sink underwater. Round 2 of the walk-away fest?
This was before mortgage rates hit 5%. Can't wait to see the next 3 months' of data.
"Can't wait to see the next 3 months' of data"
From who? lol
Buy low, sell lower.
Rent now, buy cheaper later.
"buy cheaper later". I agree, but the bottom is nowhere in sight. A declining universe of qualified borrowers, more stringent LV ratios, income standards, etc plus rising interest rates indicate to me that the current median home price of $168K has to drop to the $120 level. The other metric is the median family income, now at slightly less than $50k and dropping. When that number reverses, it will be time to buy; but definitely not until then.
Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding!!!!
We have a winner, great call.
Absolutely correct. Both the call, and recognition of the call.
Yes, the bottom is years away with current inventory and qual buyer scarcity, but I expect (maybe just hope) those rates will drop back to mid 4s before the -30% trough is reached.
What goes down, must come out. Numbers so bad that denial becomes non-functional.
I thought the recession was over!
that'll be Steve Liesmans CNBC 'happy data' ...it's Rick Santelli that's the sane one
It will not rise again for another decade. Of course unless Ben's printers just decide to buy the entire inventory to stimulate the economy.
"Dallas, which peaked late". LOL. My house (in a nice neighborhood) is still worth less than it sold for in the 1985 RE bubble here. You would have been better off buying gold!
No one saw this coming.
+0 down, no-doc, interest only ARM.
fantastic deal isn't it? ..backed by Freddie Mac (bankrupt), Wall Street (bankrupt) and the US Govt (bankrupt)...
...what could possibly go wrong!
I think you forgot The People (bankrupt)
Whens uncle sucker gonna come up with a no money down, no interest payments until 2015 or some other kind of gimmick?
Print away more tax payer money to pump a busted bubble.
The Fannie and Freddie announcement wasn't enough to scare kids back into the pool?
Better yet he could have the banks bend over by resetting everyone's credit score to 750 for 5 years. If they keep it there all debts relieved, if they don't losers for life. Makes more sense than buying overvalued stocks while the whole world is still correcting. This guy has an odd title for his website but knows where everything is falling apart and why. In other words the boom in earthquakes isn't done yet.
There you go using the term 'Double Dip' again. When did the first dip end?
The graph above says mid-2009...note the use of the word 'Housing' in the headline.
Oil hot, housing not.
That's core biflation. It's why headline CPI looks so good! Housing drags down consumer inflation numbers in the calculation. But buying power is cratered and middle class existence is getting vaporized. While America sleeps, half the middle class will slide into the lower part of the pyramid. No more 'bulge in the middle'
Things you own plumeting down (less PM's), things you need to buy rocketing up. Biflation!
Well this seals QE14.
They should start using roman numerals, it just looks cooler.
No surprise here. But it is a FAIL for the Bernank, who wanted all asset values to rise, not just stocks. If housing prices had risen, then the consumer really would have had more confidence and become spenders again. However, the ridiculously high prices seen in housing before the bubble burst back in 2005 will only be seen with much more dollar devaluation. And we'll feel poorer. So Bernank is in a box on this - which is why you never hear him talking about housing prices anymore. Unemployment a tad, but not housing.
Exactly. Also further proof regarding how false those home prices were all along. They were inflated long enough to create temporary profits for Wall Street and a mess in CDOs and CDS.
Wages are stagnatating
Savings and equity account wealth was vaporized
Credit scores destroyed
Constate job loss and job exportation
Already tangled buyers who are treading water in underwater homes from the past bubble
Record housing inventory
0% savings at banks for the middle class
And rated with nowhere to go but up. Even this record intervention could not budge home prices.
Oil was also not at 80/90 while the bubble was forming.
He is in a box alright.
OT: Four Americans Aboard Yacht Captured by Pirates Reportedly Killed
If this is true, then no mourning for them. These people knew full well they were heading into dangerous waters on their self-proclaimed "mission" to deliver bibles to people around the world, direct from their 72-foot yacht.
They told friends they were going radio silent so as not to alert the pirates to their location. Sorry, but these people were just plain stupid, bordering on delusional. Like what the people on the Horn of Africa really need is bibles.
Good riddance. Saved the country some tax dollars rescuing them.
Am I bitter. No, just realistic.
I don't care what they were doing just wondering what the US response to this will be. A stiffening of posture, or bury in the headlines?
+ Mark 8:34
+ 72 feet of luxurious final resting place
The loss of life is unfortunate, but yachting in those waters is pretty damn dumb.
Damned fools. Story is fishy though, they were probably spooks posing as bible thumpers. In any event, won't shed any tears for folks galavanting all over the uncivilized world - gotta save those tears for the people dying right here in the continental U.S.A.
It's crazy to cruise around in a target like that unarmed.
No shit. I guess they weren't snake handlers...
Some people at AR15.com were going to buy a retired Coast Guard cutter at auction in shares and take a "bring your own weapons and ammo" cruise to the coast of Somalia. If it happened, that would be a reality show I would watch.
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