Case Shiller Confirms Housing Double Dip Accelerated, 20-City Composite At Lowest Since June 2009

Tyler Durden's picture

As of December, so almost three months ago, the housing double dip was getting increasingly worse. This was confirmed by the latest Case Shiller data, according to which the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual rates of decline of 1.2% and 2.4%, respectively. The 20 City Composite printed at 142.16, the lowest since June 2009 when it was 141.75. Luckily, NAR's now completely disgraced Larry Yun is nowhere to be found in this release, from which we quote: "Data through December 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index declined by 3.9% during the fourth quarter of 2010. The National Index is down 4.1% versus the fourth quarter of 2009, which is the lowest annual growth rate since the third quarter of 2009, when prices were falling at an 8.6% annual rate. As of December 2010, 18 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down compared to December 2009." Bottom line: the chart says it all.

Those hoping for some soothing Kool Aid will not find it in the following quotes:

“We ended 2010 with a weak report. The National Index is down 4.1% from the fourth quarter of 2009 and 18 of 20 cities are down over the last 12 months. Both monthly Composites and the National Index are moving closer to their 2009 troughs. The National Index is within a percentage point of the low it set in the first quarter of 2009. Despite improvements in the overall economy, housing continues to drift lower and weaker.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. “Unlike the 2006 to 2009 period when all cities saw prices move together, we see some differing stories around the country. California is doing better with gains from their low points in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco. At the other end is the Sun Belt – Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa. All four made new lows in December. Also seeing renewed weakness are some cities that were among the last to reach their peaks including Atlanta, Charlotte,  Portland OR and Seattle, where news lows were also seen. Dallas, which peaked late, has so far stayed above its low marked in February 2009.”

“The 10- and 20-City Composite indices remain above their spring 2009 lows; however, 11 markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007. We have seen more markets hit new lows in each of the past three months.”

“Looking deeper into the monthly data, 19 MSAs and both Composites were down in December over November. The only one which wasn’t was Washington DC, up 0.3%. With December 2010 index levels of 99.73 and 99.48, respectively, Cleveland and Las Vegas have the dubious distinction of average home prices now below their January 2000 levels. Detroit was the only market that was in that group prior to December”

Full report.

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Caviar Emptor's picture

Biflation bitchez!

Caviar Emptor's picture

Not! Stagflation was a term designated to describe the 1970s, a time when housing prices were skyrocketing. Clearly not the case in this economy. Also in the 1970s wage inflation was considered a key cause of general inflation. Clearly not the case today. And sequential GDP growth was higher then 

DonnieD's picture

It's not any kind of -flation. It's a bubble popping and price normalization. Someone tell the Fed their job isn't to reflate bubbles. The sheeple actually like it when 60% of their take home pay doesn't go to their mortgage.

Quinvarius's picture

Stagflation is when unemployment and inflation are high.  Like now.

Caviar Emptor's picture

Stagflation does not adequately describe what is going on today. Wrong diagnosis will engender wrong treatment. This is not like the 1970s stagflation which Ben's idols, Milton Friedman, Volcker and Greenspan made their careers out of dealing with. If we fail to recognize the key distinctions, then the economy will go even further south since the treatment is now aggravating rather than helping the problem

bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

Who cares, Ben is here.  And didnt you know?  The economy is self sustaining now!

Zero Govt's picture

Ben's simply not blowing asset bubbles hard enough ...blow Ben, blow.....

Deflation Benny-Bitchez, Deflation

bankonzhongguo's picture

Considering how much Case-Shiller is used in housing futures, it should come as no surprsie that it is as inflated as BLS numbers.  People just like to say "Case-Shiller."  It makes it sound very important.  A ton of data is missing in these indices.  Right now I can think of 10 pocket listings in my home town that never made it onto MLS and therefore the 10-30% cash discounted sales prices will never make it on anyone's radar as sold comps - and you use known comps to write the offers.  Market still overpriced 20% never mind the 2 year shadow inventory.  Look to the local rents for value.

papaswamp's picture

As more sink underwater. Round 2 of the walk-away fest?

101 years and counting's picture

This was before mortgage rates hit 5%.  Can't wait to see the next 3 months' of data.

youngman's picture

"Can't wait to see the next 3 months' of data"


From who?  lol

longjohnshorts's picture

Buy low, sell lower.

apberusdisvet's picture

"buy cheaper later".  I agree, but the bottom is nowhere in sight.  A declining universe of qualified borrowers, more stringent LV ratios, income standards, etc plus rising interest rates indicate to me that the current median home price of $168K has to drop to the $120 level.  The other metric is the median family income, now at slightly less than $50k and dropping.  When that number reverses, it will be time to buy; but definitely not until then.

SteveNYC's picture

Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding!!!!

We have a winner, great call.

swmnguy's picture

Absolutely correct.  Both the call, and recognition of the call.

snowball777's picture

Yes, the bottom is years away with current inventory and qual buyer scarcity, but I expect (maybe just hope) those rates will drop back to mid 4s before the -30% trough is reached.


StychoKiller's picture

What goes down, must come out.  Numbers so bad that denial becomes non-functional.

Dexter Morgan's picture

I thought the recession was over!

Zero Govt's picture

that'll be Steve Liesmans CNBC 'happy data''s Rick Santelli that's the sane one

redarrow's picture

It will not rise again for another decade. Of course unless Ben's printers just decide to buy the entire inventory to stimulate the economy.

duo's picture

"Dallas, which peaked late".  LOL.  My house (in a nice neighborhood) is still worth less than it sold for in the 1985 RE bubble here.  You would have been better off buying gold!

Confused's picture

No one saw this coming.



Fearless Rick's picture

+0 down, no-doc, interest only ARM.

Zero Govt's picture

fantastic deal isn't it? ..backed by Freddie Mac (bankrupt), Wall Street (bankrupt) and the US Govt (bankrupt)...

...what could possibly go wrong!

GreenSideUp's picture

I think you forgot The People (bankrupt)

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Whens uncle sucker gonna come up with a no money down, no interest payments until 2015 or some other kind of gimmick?

Print away more tax payer money to pump a busted bubble.

snowball777's picture

The Fannie and Freddie announcement wasn't enough to scare kids back into the pool?

onarga74's picture

Better yet he could have the banks bend over by resetting everyone's credit score to 750 for 5 years.  If they keep it there all debts relieved, if they don't losers for life.  Makes more sense than buying overvalued stocks while the whole world is still correcting.  This guy has an odd title for his website but knows where everything is falling apart and why.  In other words the boom in earthquakes isn't done yet.



Quintus's picture

There you go using the term 'Double Dip' again.  When did the first dip end?

snowball777's picture

The graph above says mid-2009...note the use of the word 'Housing' in the headline.

Caviar Emptor's picture

Oil hot, housing not. 

That's core biflation. It's why headline CPI looks so good! Housing drags down consumer inflation numbers in the calculation. But buying power is cratered and middle class existence is getting vaporized. While America sleeps, half the middle class will slide into the lower part of the pyramid. No more 'bulge in the middle'

SheepDog-One's picture

Things you own plumeting down (less PM's),  things you need to buy rocketing up. Biflation!

morph's picture

Well this seals QE14.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

They should start using roman numerals, it just looks cooler.

Cleanclog's picture

No surprise here.  But it is a FAIL for the Bernank, who wanted all asset values to rise, not just stocks.  If housing prices had risen, then the consumer really would have had more confidence and become spenders again.  However, the ridiculously high prices seen in housing before the bubble burst back in 2005 will only be seen with much more dollar devaluation.  And we'll feel poorer.  So Bernank is in a box on this - which is why you never hear him talking about housing prices anymore.  Unemployment a tad, but not housing.

John McCloy's picture

Exactly. Also further proof regarding how false those home prices were all along. They were inflated long enough to create temporary profits for Wall Street and a mess in CDOs and CDS.
Wages are stagnatating
Savings and equity account wealth was vaporized
Credit scores destroyed
Constate job loss and job exportation
Already tangled buyers who are treading water in underwater homes from the past bubble
Record housing inventory
0% savings at banks for the middle class
And rated with nowhere to go but up. Even this record intervention could not budge home prices.
Oil was also not at 80/90 while the bubble was forming.

He is in a box alright.

Ragnarok's picture

OT: Four Americans Aboard Yacht Captured by Pirates Reportedly Killed

Fearless Rick's picture

If this is true, then no mourning for them. These people knew full well they were heading into dangerous waters on their self-proclaimed "mission" to deliver bibles to people around the world, direct from their 72-foot yacht.

They told friends they were going radio silent so as not to alert the pirates to their location. Sorry, but these people were just plain stupid, bordering on delusional. Like what the people on the Horn of Africa really need is bibles.

Good riddance. Saved the country some tax dollars rescuing them.

Am I bitter. No, just realistic.

Ragnarok's picture

I don't care what they were doing just wondering what the US response to this will be. A stiffening of posture, or bury in the headlines?

Confused's picture

+ 72 feet of luxurious final resting place

John Law Lives's picture

The loss of life is unfortunate, but yachting in those waters is pretty damn dumb.

I Got Worms's picture

Damned fools. Story is fishy though, they were probably spooks posing as bible thumpers. In any event, won't shed any tears for folks galavanting all over the uncivilized world - gotta save those tears for the people dying right here in the continental U.S.A.

Richard Head's picture

It's crazy to cruise around in a target like that unarmed.

MachoMan's picture

No shit.  I guess they weren't snake handlers...

gaoptimize's picture

Some people at were going to buy a retired Coast Guard cutter at auction in shares and take a "bring your own weapons and ammo" cruise to the coast of Somalia.  If it happened, that would be a reality show I would watch.