Case Shiller Confirms Housing Double Dip Accelerates, Misses Estimates For Rebound, Snow Not Blamed

Tyler Durden's picture

Something funny happened on the way to the "wealth effect": we call it affectionately, the "poverty effect." At least for those who have homes. The November Case Shiller index confirmed that the double dip in housing is accelerating, with the composite index posting its 5 sequential decline. The 20 city composite came at -1.59% Y/Y on expectations of a rebound to 1.7%. Perhaps the Chaircreature should finally consider lowering those mortgage rates instead of focusing so much on the Russell 2000. What we are amazed by is that all that abundant California snow was not blamed on this one particular negative surprise.

Full release which merely confirms all we have been saying all along.

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gwar5's picture

They'll adjust for snow in upward revised figures next month, "unexpectedly"

TruthInSunshine's picture

The National Association of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders and National Mortgage Brokers Association all said it's the best time to buy any house, anywhere - and have been saying so since they were formed as organizations, including during the peak of the housing bubble.

Why would they lie?

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

They're not making any more land...

rassillon's picture

Yes because that postage stamp size piece of land (surface only) you get with a house makes it worth it. 

Temporalist's picture

You can't eat dirt.


And in other news...

Bloomberg reports on the "recovery":


Payrolls Decrease in 35 U.S. States, Led by New York

"Payrolls decreased in 35 U.S. states in December, while the unemployment rate rose in 20, showing the labor market recovery is slow to gather momentum."


I love how the Ministry of Alternate Reality phrases things.  "Recovery is slow to gather momentum" - like 3 years slow? 

Sean7k's picture

Lol. The economy is like a depressive on prozac, keeps thinking he's cured after every dose.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

UK blames snow for negative GDP.

The U.K.'s snow-battered economy shrunk for the first time in more than a year during the fourth quarter of 2010, a surprise negative hit that will trigger debate about the country's aggressive fiscal tightening and the direction of interest rates amid high inflation.


Clearly the major factor over the period was heavy snow which consigned the U.K. to a standstill over much of December. According to an assessment by the ONS, the weather subtracted 0.5% from GDP growth over the quarter as a whole. The point here is that, even then, the official ‘snow adjusted’ GDP estimate for Q4 would be a very disappointing ‘flat’. 
– Philip Shaw, Investec Securities

ConfusedIdiot's picture

Payrolls decreased in 35 U.S. states in December, while the unemployment rate rose in 20, showing the labor market recovery is slow to gather momentum. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home values in 20 cities fell 1.6 percent in November from a year earlier, the biggest 12- month decrease since December 2009,


“This kind of mixed picture, combined with some of the positives we’ve seen in retail sales and manufacturing data, rising credit, tells us we’re at a turning point,” said Steven Cochrane, director of regional economics at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania.


A turning point? No, please. Dec 7, 1941 was a turning point. August 6, 1945, was a turning point, Jan. 31, 1968, was a turning point.


Racer's picture

More bad news? Of course not, BTFD, it is merely the peasants who are suffering.....

Sudden Debt's picture

Looks like the banks are out of the woods



Mercury's picture

Perhaps the Chaircreature should finally consider lowering those mortgage rates instead of focusing so much on the Russell 2000.

No, we don't need lower mortgage rates.  We need to de-lever not re-lever.  The housing market needs to reach something close to equilibrium and we ain't there yet in many sub-markets.

Tyler Durden's picture

Obviously we were merely referring to the Fed reverting to its original 2 mandates, and pulling off the throttle on the 3rd one.

SheepDog-One's picture

220, 221, hey whatever it takes!

bronzie's picture

"220, 221, hey whatever it takes!"

classic scene from "Mr. Mom"

Careless Whisper's picture

the privately owned federal reserve bank may have 2 mandates, officially, but their real mandate is to do what is in the best interests of the banks that literally own it.

Temporalist's picture

"Takin' advantage of some of the time off to uh, add a whole new wing on here."

Mercury's picture

Thought that was a liitle out of character (could have been a snow-day Tyler fill-in).

Maybe the banks should be swapping debt for equity in many cases of under/non-performing mortgages since that's what often happens when corporations can't make payments.  Families get to stay in houses, pain is shared between the two primary interested parties and the market get's frigged with less.

Deathtöngue's picture

In other news, several ducks were seen lining up in a row.

Sudden Debt's picture

interesting. I've once seen 4 ducks and one was leading the way and the others followed.

The other day, I have also seen a flock of birds that where flying in a V patern!! I think the birds where trying to tell me something...


kridkrid's picture

I saw the same thing.  I think the Visitors are coming.  Maybe the'll buy up some debt. 

jus_lite_reading's picture

Are those the same ducks I just saw fall out of the sky from "hypothermia?"

BEnron's attempt to kill the black swans has led to mass kills of all acquatic and avian life...

Sudden Debt's picture

European banks are suing BAC for Countrywide scams!!!



Spigot's picture

Much more to come on the "big orgs who got sold shit are going to eff over the shit shovellers" meme...

Hephasteus's picture

Lifes a bitch and her name is Sue Yu.

rassillon's picture

Why's everything got to be the Chinese' fault?

umop episdn's picture

But...but...the California snow I know of is definitely responsible for at least some of the 'poverty effect.' It was half of the 'hookers and blow' equation.

TeMpTeK's picture

Expect home values to meet up with 2002 levels again...Its the only way

Max Hunter's picture

That would mean an increase in some places that i'm aware of..

Alcoholic Native American's picture

My rent is only 225 a month. I honestly don't see how people can afford these 600+ rents.

MachoMan's picture

Where the fuck do you live for $225 lol?  Do you have the house paid for or something and that's your property tax and utility costs?  Insurance? 

In BFE, we can get $350/mo out of a shitbird apartment...

If you have two wage earners that each make ~$25k/year, $600/mo on home payments is pretty easy...  you're looking at ~20% of takehome for rent...  you can easily tuck away 20% for savings/retirement under this scenario...  depending on where you live of course.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

$27 per month, coming soon to the Friday Real Estate Section of your local newspaper:

Like the choice in color?

Oh regional Indian's picture

News had it that KaliFornication was due for the storm of storms, not the quake of quakes.

I think NUMBers will not tell any tales for now. It's all about geo this and geo that.

You know, politics, graphy, engineering, all of those geos.

And then there is Helios action. And Luna's distortions.

Homes are going to find their foundations trembling in this tipping point time, literally and figuratively.


monopoly's picture

It just affects the middle class. Those 43 million on food stamps already lost their home. I mean, just 60% of the economy. As long as the bonus money on wall street keeps moving up BMW and Mercedes will be fine.

What planet am I on. Do we break 12,000 today.

Alcoholic Native American's picture

The middle class isn't shrinking, there's just an overcapacity of middle class McMansions in Suburbia.  I think, no, it's probably a combonation of both.

DonnieD's picture

"Middle class McMansion". That's our problem in a nutshell.

The Limerick King's picture

So housing is still in the gutter

Is the recovery starting to sputter?

"No way" says Bad Ben

To all middle-class men

"Just bend over and pass me the butter"

jus_lite_reading's picture

Keep the limericks comin'! LOVE IT!

Sudden Debt's picture

Here in Belgium it was on the news this morning that if you bought real estate in 2000 for the value of 200.000 euro, that property is now worth 600.000 on average. AND IT KEEPS ON RISING! IT EVEN DID SO DURING THE CRISIS!!


Belgium is clearly the exception and is in no way in a bubble :)

TheGreatPonzi's picture

Same here in France.

There is big bucks to make in this time of pre-peak insanity, but I wouldn't risk being left holding the bag.

Many people are going straight to a wall of disenchantment. The prices are high but there is very few buyers, and even less people who buy with cash. When the old-timers who typically own the houses will need to sell, and thus have to lower their prices, we'll have a downward spiral.

rassillon's picture

"that property is now worth 600.000" 

I always cringe when people say what something is worth. I called BS back in 06, 07 when people were telling me their house was *worth* X-amount.00. I always said, then sell it. Something is only *worth* what you can get someone to pay for it.


Those people sure wish they had listened.

bbucks's picture

Oh yes, the good ol days of 2006.  I remember people telling me the same stuff.  "My house is worth such and such--I'm rich!"  I would simply tell them that it is not the house that is really worth more, it is that the dollar is worth less!   Again, a deer in the headlights look.

SheepDog-One's picture

They didnt blame the snow? LOL, slacker US media...

papaswamp's picture

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue...

bingaling's picture

But the economy is recovering as corporations are taking out more and more loans and selling less while raising prices to make it appear all things are good . Next bubble Corporate bonds  . 

bronzie's picture

"I'm expecting housing prices to have to go back to 1997 levels."

I think we'll see 1998 values in SoCal

1998 is when real estate valuations started increasing faster than the rate of inflation - ie, the start of the bubble

according to bubble dynamics every financial bubble retraces itself fully and reverts back to its starting point - an overshoot to the downside is also common so values below 1998 levels are possible

I'll be waiting with cash in hand ...

TruthInSunshine's picture

We're already back to 1997 where I'm at, if not 1994.

Next stop: 1984

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I doubt that some markets will ever recover.  There will probably be more ghost towns in the Arizona and Nevada deserts.