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Case-Shiller Home Price Adjusted-Unadjusted Index Divergence Continues, Unadjusted Deterioration Accelerates, Hits -0.4% In January
Even as the adjusted Case-Shiller index came in at a 0.4% sequential increase, the deterioration in the index' unadjusted series continues, with the number a mirror image across the X-axis, coming in at -0.4%, the biggest decline in over a year. After having troughed in October of 2009, the unadjusted index had declined by 0.2% in November and December, and in January took another new leg down by 0.4%, as house price declines across the major MSA accelerated yet again.
To be sure, the adjusted-unadjusted divergence is nothing new, and has been seen in numerous other official government statistics, most notably the initial jobless claims series, where the spread in adjsuted and unadjusted unemployment has recently been at record levels.
Below is a sumary snapshot of unadjusted Case Shiller data by composite and by major MSA.
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Stop paying your mortgage; there is no reason to maintain a depreciating asset. I guess all the stock gains haven't translated to home prices, lol.
Housing is a lagging indicator.....by about 20 years
The only way to accommodate higher income tax rates would be to dramatically reduce the price of servicing RE (mortgage) debt.
As incomes are flat and falling, something has to give. Either the banks get stuffed or the Treasury learns to plan budgets with year over year declines of 15%-18%. For 20 years.
There's no "inflation" - only deflation. On the road to hyperinflation.
who cares, the media has already spun this as a good report, buy buy buy buy
"To be sure, the adjusted-unadjusted divergence is nothing new, and has been seen in numerous other official government statistics, most notably the initial jobless claims series, where the spread in adjusted and unadjusted unemployment has recently been at record levels."
Daddy, tell me another lie so that I may pretend it's the truth.
The Bureau of Making Shit Up is evidently expanding into the private sector now.
The willingness to engage in doublethink never ceases to amaze. On bb's front page you get the rosy view, and yet in the article on the subject is the admission that the rebound is "fading," that the next foreclosure wave is coming and inventories will increase again (which problem will not be overcome unless, in part, the jobs picture increases dramatically, which everybody already admits will not happen), starts remain at depressed levels, and I read elsewhere that better than half those whose mortgages were "modified" have already defaulted again. Every day I throw up in my mouth a little more.
"On bb's front page you get the rosy view, and yet in the article..."
When in denial and seeking information that confirms their denial, no one is going to actually read the article. The headline satisfies the need for confirmation of their rosy worldview. No sense digging deeper and risking cognitive dissonance when they stumble across contrary information.
This is how the mainstream media can say they "reported" the bad news. The article can say all it wants. It's the headline that's where most people stop reading, after getting their confirmation bias fix mainlined directly into the brain.
Mabelous Mabelous
Spring is the time of bubbles. Housing is a Buy... in the Spring of 2020.
These bubbles take a loong time to unwind & I may be too optimistic.
virgil remembers the RE recession in 1988 it took until 2001 to break even, it taught me a valuable lesson to learn how markets work but there were no bailouts at the time either.
They just want the gain now no pain.. most expereince and knowledge comes from the pain.
Bloomberg interviewed Schiller this morning. When asked what he thought the odds of a double dip in housing were he replied, "50/50". Which in his opinion was "very high". Apparently, with one close exception('81-'82), the US has never experienced a double dip in housing.
and they say you can't be a half pregnant, can you? Apparently, Yeah we can !
how about obama forces the banks to foreclose and unload the houses.
because i am tired of the banksters.
they are stupid.
There is housing, and there is housing. The fastest growing segment of residential "real estate" in the Home of the US' Paymaster General (China) is 20' containers. Since exports are not quite what they used to be, but real estate prices in China have been on a tear, it seems the current fad in "starter homes" is a steel shipping container fitted with all the comforts of home. The typical countryside peasant trying to make it in the big city, such as Shenzen, can rent The People's Bungalow for 2000 yuan per year (less than $300).
At current cap rates, that just about puts a Shenzen container on par with the median home price of Detroit. In addition, given America's virtual cornering of the market in empty shipping containers, the result of twenty years of massive trade deficits both in value and bulk, it looks like the Shadow Inventory just got a lot bigger. The good news is Angelo Mozilo is writing Option Arms on the containers at Long Beach.
In other news, homes are seeing multiple offers again here in the San Jose, CA area.
Could I ask, what is the unemployment rate in San Jose (Santa Clara county), that is, Silicon Valley? Perhaps the last bastion of prosperity in the state of CA?
Mark Beck
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