Case Shiller Misses Consensus As Home Price Decline Continues For 4th Month

Tyler Durden's picture

If Bernanke is hoping to eventually have restore HELOCs as a piggybank for the greater US population, he better come up with something quick. The Case Shiller for October, as always nearly three months delayed, shows that the double dip in home prices which started in June, is persisting. And since both new and mortgage refi apps have plunged in recent weeks following the spike in the 30 Year cash mortgage rate, do not expect to see any rise in Top 20 Composite MSA home prices. From the October print: the October SA Composite 20 came at 143.52%, a decline of 0.99% from September, and just down from a year earlier. There was a sequential decline in 18 of the 20 MSAs, with just Denver and DC posting an increase. The biggest drops were in Atlanta (-2.13%), Chicago (-1.80%), and Minneapolis (-1.76%). The decline was even worse on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, where the sequential decline in the Composite 20 was -1.32%. As the attached chart demonstrates, the double dip is accelerating, as the sequential drops are increasing in magnitude. This data flatly continues to refute claims that there is  any economic recovery going on, as the primary source of middle class wealth continues to decline in value.


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Robot Traders Mom's picture


TWORIVER's picture

Breaking into all time mean territory now with that avatar!

Arius's picture

would you mind to put a selling point too?

Caviar Emptor's picture

Score another one for Biflation, bitchez! 

Houses down, oil up. That's the news this week. Which just goes along with the theme-songs of employment down, food up and incomes down, cotton up. And tuition up. And healthcare up.

With credit card interest at 22% we're sure gonna have a 'Robust" consumer next year!

SteveNYC's picture

The Bernank is doing a beautiful job balancing "inflation" and keeping it at ZERO! Think about it, houses down/oil up = net result BALANCED! Yes, The Bernank truly is the greatest central banker of all time, Greenspan eat your heart out.

This has got to be great for the middle class....

Beatscape's picture

The Double Whammy Economy...

Wages down, job opportunities down, home prices down, commercial real estate down, cost of doing business is up with city, county, state governments all broke and raising taxes and the feds are layering in more and more bureaucratic burdens...

Oil and gasoline prices are up, cotton/clothing prices up, food prices are up, health care costs higher, college tuition prices higher...

Call it the middle class vise grip...

TruthInSunshine's picture

'The Great Bernank Milk Money Shake?'

Ricky Bobby's picture

Repeat after me "There is no inflation, There is no inflation, There is no inflation" That's what I hear from the talking heads so it must be true.

mikla's picture

So *not* a surprise.

Unless you pretend to be paid to report on such things.

LoneStarHog's picture
Futures Hold Gains After News on Home Prices

This is the CNBS headline and if one does not actually READ the release it gives the impression that the news was POSITIVE.

skohiu's picture

All that matters this morning is CNBS's headlights..........did you see Amanda Drury's puppies?

cossack55's picture

If you are implying that the worse the news, the more visible the cleavage, bring on the flash crash.  Thats about all she is good for anyway. 

velobabe's picture

i noticed them, on morning joe this AM. cleavage galore, nice puppies she has, and i bet they don't sag a bit.

put_peter's picture

Gold up, retailers on their knees and home prices down... something does not add up here...

Caviar Emptor's picture

Gold is protection against your buying power getting crushed. Anyone holding dollars wants to dump them as their buying power erodes daily. That means incomes, dividends and interest are also eroding. So gold provides actual biflation protection

put_peter's picture

But one could argue that buying power isn't going down when home prices are declining... However the world has gotten so weird that i think the mother of all crashes is just around the corner... JMHO

Caviar Emptor's picture

In an economy where housing prices are dropping (the bulk of people's net worth) and cost of living and doing business are rising fast it makes sense. It means businesses can't pass on rising input costs. Margins get squeezed. It sets up a vicious cycle where the Fed will unrelentingly print more in response, reinforcing the effect. Only gold is preserving your buying power.

put_peter's picture

Yes i understand the concept of preserving your wealth with gold. However to me i think market is telling: Housing prices are going go a way lower as the money is going to gold instead of homes. That on the other hand means that we are heading to deeper into recession... I hope i'm wrong because that could spell a total catastrophe. 

MachoMan's picture

One of the fundamental problems with our government and its pervasive involvment in our lives is that our citizenry has not the courage to believe in itself...  Do not rule out possibilities simply because you do not want to believe they could occur... 

cossack55's picture

Total collapse, total catastrophe, its all good.  The only way to fix a system this corrupt is to let it burn.  Burn, baby, burn.  Also, during the fire is a great time to seek and deliver retribution to those who have deserved it so long.

Everyman's picture

I think I get the pattern now, they sell Home builders now and buy NFLX and AMZN?

oh_bama's picture

You guys better believe that the Fed can throw enough money at this. hehe

Buy the fucking dip. Or you will be living in this bearish biased, end of day type of online community forever, with bitterness in real life.


Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This can't be happening. I mean we're right in the middle of a strong and sustained economic recovery, right? What do you mean house prices are dropping? Who dropped the ball?

This means we're gonna need to buy municipal bonds and every damn mortgage in America over the next 18 months. Where does this end?

emsolý's picture

It ends with the Fed. I mean the Fed ends it. I mean end the Fed.

Eternal Student's picture

It ends with the Bond market saying "no", with higher rates. Once we start getting cut off from the source of this heroin, i.e. cheap credit, then we can move on to getting back to normal. Unfortunately, that's going to be ugly. That's why the Fed can't effectively print unto infinity.

Re: Case-Shiller. A key thing has been left out of the article, and the comments to date. CS has said that the Seasonally Adjusted number should be ignored; the only thing which counts is the NSA. So this number is indeed very bad.


ElvisDog's picture

Yeah, I thought this was the "winter of recovery" that followed the "summer of hope" or whatever it was.

StychoKiller's picture

Guess this means you haven't planted your "money tree" yet...

HarryWanqer's picture

I see a lot of smaller homes of 800-1000 sq. feet selling for $90k in lower middle class neighborhoods.  The houses in higher middle class neighborhoods are selling for just over $100k of course.  What are people waiting for?  At these prices, you're practically stealing it.  Better buy why you can!

Caviar Emptor's picture

Not considered a value at these levels or even a good investment long term. Post bubble real estate prices can stagnate for decades. Even worse if the economic picture is spelling contraction. Even worse if nobody has any money left when they're getting squeezed from biflation.

thepigman's picture

Where do you live, Wanker? Kansas?

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This is Wanqer.

You have been Wanqered. :>)

Careless Whisper's picture

good weather and medical marijuana isn't enough to get me to move to cali. with a nazi loving governor, carbon taxes, and high unemployment, it's adios.

here's a house in compton for only $99,900 and it has a pool.

but then there's all those nasty drive-bys


bob_dabolina's picture

They're gona' have to remove that steel wire fence if they want the subprime ninja's in.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If you look carefully at the 14 photos, it appears the house has a mold problem. Look closely at the one of the closet and also just above the baseboard trim in several photos including the bathrooms.

That can't be good. Nice back yard though if you're not being shot on sight by the drive by shooters.

caconhma's picture

Nice people, nice neighborhood. After all, it is so close to Hollywood with all its glamor.

Will our next presidento be from this neighborhood? You never know.

Americans were brainwashed to an imbecile level.

StychoKiller's picture

Drink Brawndo!  It's got what plants crave!

Don Birnam's picture

"Home, Sweet Home ?" Not on Racquet Club Drive.

"Straight Outta Compton !"


Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Lots of "bargains" in Detroit.

cossack55's picture

HW. I junked you only because you deserved it.  My question to you, tho, is..... does the C/S report impact on my 100% cotton Teepee? It is my home, but all cotton.....what do you think?

TWORIVER's picture

they don't have the money and can't get the credit Harry, thats why. I wished that I lived in whatever little happy corner of he world you live in because it ain't like that where I am or anywhere else from what I see.

bob_dabolina's picture

Shut it Shit Banger.

Go back to selling your toilet bowl lids or whatever you do.

Fearless Rick's picture

Harry Wanqer (not the real Harry), with all due respect to the mentally-challenged, you are retarded. Those $90K homes will be worth $60K in a few years and the $100K homes worth maybe $70K. Housing is still in need of a 25-30% haircut before it even comes close to affordable, which, if you want to use a simple (old) rule of thumb, should be 25-30% of take home pay, not gross, which gets whittled to nothing by FICA and the rapacious tax code.

You make $40K, after taxes, plus maybe a refund, you take home maybe $30K. That's $2500 a month. Your mortgage, real property taxes and insurance should be in the range of $600-750 a month. A $100,000 home with 20% down, 80K financed over 20 years at 5% with 1.5% property tax is roughly $650/month. Decent value.

Wages are not rising. More single earners. Prices have to drop into $60-75 range for affordability to the lower end of the earning class - $20-35K, a growing demographic.

Eternal Student's picture

So, let's see how many fools don't realize that you're not HarryWanker, but someone else getting tremendous jollies out of posting as a look-alike, namely HarryWanqer. I see you've fooled 5 so far.



Miles Kendig's picture

You must live out beyond the Pocono's

Caviar Emptor's picture

Note the underwhelming rush to dollars in response to global gloom. Translated, they're getting dumped as fast as repatriation of hot money. This is extremely gold bullish

wiskeyrunner's picture

No such thing as a down stock market, stock index will close green everyday this week.