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Case Shiller Misses As Usual, Back To 2009 Lows, Discloses "Little, If Any, Good News About Housing"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Another month, another accelerating double dip. And this just in as futures are about to rip, "With an index level of 139.27, the 20-City Composite is virtually back to its April 2009 trough value (139.26); the 10-City Composite is 1.5% above its low...In February, the 10-City and 20-City Composites were both down 1.1% from their January 2011 levels. Nineteen of the 20 MSAs and both the 10-City and 20-City Composite fell in February versus January. Of these, 14 MSAs and both Composites posted negative monthly returns for more than six consecutive months. With the February 2011 report, 11 of the 20 MSAs and both Composites are down by more than 1% compared to their January levels." So much for that particular part of the recovery. And why buy houses when you can buy Netflix at 100x fwd P/E and retire un 3 days?

From the release:

There is very little, if any, good news about housing. Prices continue to weaken, trends in sales and construction are disappointing.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Ten of the 11 MSAs that recorded index lows in January fell further in February. The one exception, Detroit, is 30% below its 2000 price level. The 20-City Composite is within a hair’s breadth of a double dip. Fourteen MSAs and both Composites have continued to decline month-over-month for more than six consecutive months as of February.

“Atlanta, Cleveland and Las Vegas join Detroit as cities with home prices below their 2000 levels; and Phoenix is barely above its January 2000 level after a new index low. The one positive is Washington D.C. with a positive annual growth rate, +2.7%, and home prices more than 80% over its January 2000 level. Other cities holding on to large gains from 11 years ago include Los Angeles (68.25%), New York (65.19%) and San Diego (55.05%)”

“Recent data on existing-home sales, housing starts, foreclosure activity and employment confirm that we are still in a slow recovery. Existing home sales and housing starts rose in March, but remain close to recent lows. Foreclosure activity showed decreases in mortgage delinquencies in the fourth quarter of 2010, but are still close to historic highs. The nation and 34 states registered a decline in their unemployment rates for March.”

 

 


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Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Your daily Biflation news: Housing down, food and energy transitory. 

Lotsa Luck!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:16 | Link to Comment Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Biflation exactly.

But eventually . . . it will be good to buy housing to be landlords as the sea change of not wanting to be homeowners expands, housing starts aren't at replacement levels, so rents shall rise.  Further exacerbating biflation.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:03 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

As we are in the initial stages of international dollar hyperinflation, and we are facing a paradigm shift and a metamorphosis into a replacement world currency, we must consider:

What would the world accept as a world standard currency, after what we've been through? Wouldnt there need to be a legitimization of said currency with backing by some resource?

Why would you trade out of gold or silver into federal reserve notes, when asia is dumping them and the FED is the only buyer, using nothing but thin air to buy them?

This sell off is clearly a 'buy rumor sell news' effect; where those with dollars can still get something for them. But we must assume china has already dumped most of their dollars and we are just waiting for the shoe to drop... making this latest move and pullback 'drops in the bucket".

The tidal waves of unwanted dollars must come home to roost, in the form of higher prices across the board.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Deep
Deep's picture

And futures up. Go figure

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:54 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Simply a side effect of a monkeystomped USD, but that wont last long either as the REAL blowoff top is not at all PM's but these ridiculous equity (401K) markets.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 12:52 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

In other housing stats, the new home print of +11% month-over-month looks wrong, but the -20% year-over-year is likely accurate, probably by accident.  How they could manage to fit the two together shows the mystical irrationality of X-12 ARIMA.

A rolling 12 mo of new sales is likely closer to 350k nominally, but I can see the 300k being the eventual figure for 2011 given how poor the stats look.  But the rolling 12 figure is down at least 2% from the same calc in February, and March alone is at least 20% off from a year ago at a non-seasonally adjusted figure in the 25k neighborhood.  That's a weak number for what is supposed to be the start of the new home buying/selling season.

No good news that I can see, but they'll try to tease some seasonally adjusted positive numbers out of all of it I'm sure.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:12 | Link to Comment Deep
Deep's picture

And futures up. Go figure

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:20 | Link to Comment LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Of course the futures are up.  Didn't you hear, "earnings" were better than expected!  I just find it funny that Netflix is basically ignored, they talk up all the other reports on CNBC but you know damn well if Netflix beat and raised guidance it would be front, center, left, right, up, and down all over CNBC. 

The way things have been going lately I would seriously be stunned if the Dow even comes close to turning negative today.  Every day is the same, ramp the futures overnight/early morning, open +50 or so, maybe trade down to +30, then drift up on 0 volume to about +75 by the close.  There is no volatility, never any meaningful reversals, and laughable volume. 

Back to the "earnings" they are telling me Ford posted some good numbers.  That's funny because I know a lot of people, I keep close contact with several small business owners in the area, I also pay attention when I drive by restaurants/stores etc, and I just don't see how a company like Ford could possibly be selling lots of new cars.  Nothing against Ford but everyone I know is trying to drive their car basically until it falls apart, and this includes local restaurant owners as well as the lower level employees like servers and busboys.  I know it's highly anecdotal, but if I sat down for dinner tonight and asked the owner if he was looking for a new car he would probably laugh me out of the restaurant. Sometimes I wonder if the numbers big companies report are just total bullshit.  Like who the fuck is buying a brand new car right now?  With so many people underwater on their homes, out of work, or making the same/less than 5 years ago, who the fuck is there to buy?  Also with the price of gas going up, why would anyone spend money on a new car unless it was a total necessity? 

Although I was at the casino a few days ago and business was certainly brisk there FWIW. 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:47 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

I see lots of shiny Ford, Fysler and Government Motors gas guzzlers around town. Waiting to see how many are junked when gasoline goes north of $5.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:14 | Link to Comment A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

I blame speculators for driving down prices.  They should launch an investigation to root them out, then it will recover...

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:12 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

good - let prices and sales decline...until this happens there will be no recovery....market enemas are not always pleasant...what the fed gave it is has taken away to give again to the banksters....

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:12 | Link to Comment youALREADYknow
youALREADYknow's picture

Yet another month living in DC and renting. Great. These prices are absurd... I've seen shelled out crack houses going for $300K.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:13 | Link to Comment j0nx
j0nx's picture

I live in Manassas Park and we are down to all time lows again here. Nothing but illegals and section 8 losers here. Under water with no way out short of sending in the keys. There are many zipcodes in the DC area that took it and are still taking it DEEP in the pooper with property values.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 16:21 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

last time I rode up round Great Falls I saw for sale signs fkin everywhere.

There's been a lot of compression, but DC is gentrifying and so has held up.  Arlington and Alexandria as well

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:15 | Link to Comment digitlman
digitlman's picture

"Little if any good news"?

Bullshit. It's great news. Keep the prices declining.

Let's get home prices back to where they are affordable with reasonable financing and down payments that people can afford.

I figure a house should cost no more than 3x the median income in any given area.

Fuck the "a house is a retirement investment vehicle" folk. It's a fucking house. Eat, shit, sleep. maybe fuck and watch some TV.

*END*

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:19 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

It is right now if you adjust your expectations.  1200 sq feet, not 3000.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 16:24 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

how much more do the materials cost for the bigger unit?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:16 | Link to Comment wang
wang's picture

Whitehouse attempts to oust Pharma CEO

The campaign against drug-company CEOs is part of a larger Obama administration effort to pursue individual executives blamed for wrongdoing rather than simply punishing companies. The government has tried to prosecute Wall Street executives in connection with the 2008 financial crisis, but with limited success.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870412320457628328385162695...

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:22 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

No one surprised here. Yes, housing needs to get to the price where a family can afford to buy a house with 20% down, and not take every dollar of earnings. Slowly getting there. I guess gold bounced a bit from Asia. Nice.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

It would appear that where there is a great sucking-in of taxpayer largess and Fed promiscuity (DC, NY, LA), housing prices are still ethereal.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We continue to see devastation of the Midwest (Minneapolis showed biggest decline) and West (SF was 2nd with notable drops in Denver and all coast cities) and Sunbelt (Miami, Atlanta omg). 

DC is the only exception where politicos use Fed stimulus cash to bid on their own homes anonymousy :-)

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

 

Amerika can do nothing...except die...slowly

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:50 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Youre right.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Anyone want to make a side bet that REITS continue to close at 52 weeks highs on this glorious news?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:31 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

 

Cost of Home Ownership

From Freddie Mac publication: Can you pick out which ones are UP?

 

"IT'S NOT JUST THE MORTGAGE:"

Among expenses to factor into a home-buying decision:

-Utilities: Heat, electricity, water and sewer, telephone, cable television, Internet and cell phones. You also may have to pay a fee for trash collection and recycling. CHECK!

-Food/entertainment: Dining in and out, movies, hobbies. CHECK!

-Children: Day care, tuition, lunch money, supplies, clothing, sports gear. CHECK!

-Health costs: Braces, eyeglasses, medicine. CHECK!

-Debt: Credit-card payments, car/student loans. CHECK!

-Maintenance/repairs/decor: Furnishings and appliances, landscaping, snow removal. CHECK!

-Job expenses: Transportation (gasoline or transit costs), auto maintenance. CHECK CHECK ChECK!!

 

SOURCE: Freddie Mac

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:49 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Massive clusterfuk....and PM bloggers are panicking to sell their PM's! 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:37 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

Should help with stock market crash- but all eyes on FED:

http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=180#p31988

 

 

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:43 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

just a renting bitch, i have rent money for May!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Everyone rents to some extent. The property "owner" pays rent to Politicians that call it property taxes. If you "own" your property the government can cancel your ownership using eminent domain laws transferring ownership to someone else willing to "rent" the property at a higher "tax" rate.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:08 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

In the 60's we had a "window tax".

You had to pay extra taxes on the amount of windows your house had.

They won't need to take your house, they just have to make you work for it.

Propositions:

- Brick tax (taxes calculated on the number of bricks in your house)

- Spider tax ( taxes calculated on the number of spiders in your house)

- Furniture tax (taxes calculated on the pieces of furniture you have)

- Windows and door taxes of course

- ...

 

I bet they can get really creative on this one and find funding for their soon to be 18 trillion debt.

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:48 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

2 scoops.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:13 | Link to Comment bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

Saw a couple of pieces about Fannie and Freddie being "shut down" as part of the US "fixing its balance sheet.

What is THAT going to do for housing when homeowners need 20% down and a job at McDonalds and Wal-mart is feeding a family of 4?

Prices could drop another 30% if that program is carried out overnight.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

 If government gets out of the mortgage guarantee business then housing burns to the ground.  Not that I don't think prices should collapse.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:06 | Link to Comment I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

I live in Austin. Sold my home of 7.5 years in January, and got asking price in a week. Put all proceeds into gold and silver, rent a home now, and have been very happy with the decision. Friends keep telling me what a mistake it was, that the Austin market is "different." I have no regrets at all (other than missing my neighbors). Though I am a surprised to see that the housing market remains quite stable, and see new home construction all over the place. So is Austin truly "different," or just on a different timetable than the rest of the country?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

So Obama didn't get elected in that state he?

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:30 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

"Home prices have stablized, so that means we are not getting poorer right? "stable" home price with 0% ann growth while inflation is 5% means 5% loss. Stable for 3 years means the home's equity has 15% loss over 3 years. This is the psy ops game the Fed is playing. They are not counting in investment opportunity costs. That same home buys a lot less food, energy, gold, education, medical services, etc. now.

 

 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:36 | Link to Comment I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

Very good point, didn't look at it that way. I basically got the same price for my house that I could have got 3 years ago. Factor in inflation and, well, there you go.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:07 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Home price decreases ARE Good News!

Watch consumer spending increase as they are less burdend by mortgage debt. Also more stable future since growth will be based on true growth instead of inflated asset prices that eventually settle back down to par.

But then banksters have already figured out another debt scheme: student loans. This one, there is no option to walk away.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

total US residential mortgage debt =$12 trillion,

 

how much has the FED now blown with no RE recovery in sight?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:31 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Who cares what the data says! News is irrelevant! Information is irrelevant! Analysis is irrelevant!

We have printed prosperity now!

Current growth rate of US government debt: 12%

Current growth rate of US economy: 2% (if we're lucky)

There's something wrong with the math when debt is growing 6X faster than our economy!

Calamity this way comes! Plan and prepare accordingly!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:36 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

That just means American leaders are just idiots who can only pull off delusions of growth by using government credit cards.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:40 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

That just means American leaders are just idiots who can only pull off delusions of growth by using government credit cards.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:34 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

What's good for housing aint good for the banks so it's a great depression in housing or until the masses get sick of this shit and decide to throw down their Jersey Shore/American Idol for one second and rise up-- I ain't holdin my breath.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:35 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

What's good for housing aint good for the banks so it's a great depression in housing or until the masses get sick of this shit and decide to throw down their Jersey Shore/American Idol for one second and rise up-- I ain't holdin my breath.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 12:13 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Jobless recovery, Homeless recovery,

Please define recovery...

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 13:05 | Link to Comment glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I am amazed there are people who insist that there is and ever has been any type of recovery.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 02:41 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

Lots of people are that stupid.

This is exactly like observing your neighbor buy new cars, ATVs, yachts and other toys every year... and assuming "wow, they are doing great".

Never mind they borrowed ALL the money to buy those goodies, and are more massively in debt every year.

Your neighbor is exactly like the federal government and GDP.  Both are the exact same fiction as "the neighbor's wealth".

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