Case Shiller Prolapse Hits New Lows As 20 City Composite Plunges Again, Below Consensus Of -0.2%, "New Recession Low" Plumbed

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite Goldman's expectations of a +0.1% sequential move, and the broader economic lemming consensus of a modest -0.2% drop, the just released March Case Shiller housing data confirmed there is no end in sight for the housing double (or triple, or quadruple, or who cares: take out the Fed's $2.7 trillion and housing really has been in a non-stop plunge for 3 years now), missing expectations and printing at -0.23%. In addition the February data was revised even lower from -0.18% to -0.25% (expect failed career economists at Goldman and elsewhere to disclose this as a huge positive as it is really an increase). The Composite 20 dropped -3.61% on expectations of -3.4%. The press release says it all: "This month’s report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation. The National Index hit a new recession low with the first quarter’s data and posted an annual decline of 5.1% versus the first quarter of 2010. Nationally, home prices are back to their mid-2002 levels." Cue QE3, 4, and so forth through QE 666, at which point we may see in uptick in worthless Bernankebux. And as we predicted earlier, bizarro day, with futures about to hit 3 year highs, now reigns supreme.

More from the release:

As of March 2011, 19 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down compared to March 2010. Twelve of the 20 MSAs and the 20-City Composite also posted new index lows in March. With an index value of 138.16, the 20-City  Composite fell below its earlier reported April 2009 low of 139.26. Minneapolis posted a double-digit 10.0% annual decline, the first market to be back in this territory since March 2010 when Las Vegas was down 12.0% on an annual basis. In the midst of all these falling prices and record lows, Washington DC was the only city where home prices increased on both a monthly (+1.1%) and annual (+4.3%) basis. Seattle was up a modest 0.1% for the month, but still down 7.5% versus March 2010.

The chart on the previous page depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 5.1% decline in the first quarter of 2011 over the first quarter of 2010. In March, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual rates of decline of 2.9% and 3.6%, respectively. Thirteen of the 20 MSAs and both monthly Composites saw their annual growth rates fall deeper into negative territory in March. While they did not worsen, Chicago, Phoenix and Seattle saw no improvement in their respective annual rates.

“This month’s report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation. The National Index, the 20-City Composite and 12 MSAs all hit new lows with data reported through March 2011. The National Index fell 4.2% over the first quarter alone, and is down 5.1% compared to its year-ago level. Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Since December 2010, we have found an increasing number of markets posting new lows. In March 2011, 12 cities - Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR) and Tampa - fell to their lowest levels as measured by the current housing cycle. Washington D.C. was the only MSA displaying positive trends with an annual growth rate of +4.3% and a 1.1% increase from its February level.

“The rebound in prices seen in 2009 and 2010 was largely due to the first-time home buyers tax credit. Excluding the results of that policy, there has been no recovery or even stabilization in home prices during or after the recent recession. Further, while last year saw signs of an economic recovery, the most recent data do not point to renewed gains.

And there you have it: fiscal and monetary policy is now proven to be a complete and total disaster, and Keynes can now be put to bed, except for another year of record 2011 US banker bonuses, of course, which have now tapped German taxpayers to guarantee payouts.

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Id fight Gandhi's picture

But the people on tv told me the recession was over two years ago and to buy stocks.

Stocks are up for the day all over. How can this be?

Oil surged on the news at 9am

Harlequin001's picture

Now really, who would have thought that without mortgages, house prices would fall. I'm stunned I tell you, stunned...

Id fight Gandhi's picture

But I don't want qe3. And most people can't afford it. It just makes food and fuel prices go up and house prices go down. Plus jobs are being lost heavy again.

Shit, chipole Mexican is now a 300 stock! Wtf?!

Why don't people care? American idol and jersey shore aren't worth the attention if you're homeless, jobless and hungry.

Apocalicious's picture

It's because they are homeless, jobless, and hungry. Opiate for the masses, my friend. Escape from reality...

Harlequin001's picture

I don't want QE3 either, but I know it's coming.

One day we will all realise that governments don't create money, they are merely the custodians of it. Only then will prices stop rising.

People don't care because you have food stamps and social security; for as long as they are fed they can be distracted with the belief that a recovery is just around the corner. They will wake up, one day...

Bob's picture

Deflation in assets held by the common man, as well as real wages,and inflation in basic costs of living, true--how else can we keep feeding the banksters and "investors", er, I mean, the productive class?

They do own the "mass media," i.e., the "news."  Not to mention the politicians who must act on it. 

Harlequin001's picture

Yes Bob but you own the money, and if you own real money then this is the best chance you'll ever get to get ahead in this life.

Sad to say you could argue that it is not you that is getting ahead, but that the rest of humanity is discovering just how badly they have been misled and just how badly off they really are, absent credit.

Who owns the media etc is largely irrelevant if you own the money, you simply need work out how to keep hold of it...

I am more equal than others's picture

The realturd spin...

low prices means now is the time to buy

Buy I say, BUY!  Please buy!  Damn it! Buy!  Prices are low, they'll never be this low again!

FEDbuster's picture

I saw a commercial on TV last night from the Realtors that stated for every house bought, two American jobs are created?
At the end of the commercial they said "Buy homes, create jobs". I wonder where that jobs formula came from? Sounded bogus to me.

I am more equal than others's picture

The two jobs are the real estate agent and the mortgage broker.  They should say the appraiser too  - that would be three jobs. 

FEDbuster's picture

It said "created" not "maintained". They were really waving the flag in the commercial. Here it is guys, now tear it apart:

Sorry about my prior post, they say it's 2 homes sold = 1 job created.

CH1's picture

Sounded bogus to me

It was that "saw it on TV" part that should have tipped you off.

trav7777's picture

lol...for how long?  Sure, there are people who get some work in a house, but people cannot just keep fucking buying houses.

The market is effing saturated...who are these realtor idiots?  Everyone who was creditworthy bought and a hell of a lot who weren't did too.

djsmps's picture

And futures jumped +10% on the news. It's great to live in America.

mayhem_korner's picture





        (Asset) Deflation &

          (Fiat) Conflagration



SheepDog-One's picture

Everyone now willing to cut their own throats, long as a stock can go up for 24 hours. Peak insanity breached.

PaperBear's picture

30 months of ZIRP and the on/off of various QEs and all of the economic indicators are now rolling over.

Gold/silver to the moon and the USD to the fiat paper currency graveyard.

Gordon Freeman's picture

This is all very bullish, in this best of all possible worlds...

gaoptimize's picture

Prepare for unforeseen consequences.  -From our mutual friend

SheepDog-One's picture

They can raise the debt as much as they want, matters nothing. In fact I hope they go for a big one, gold silver and oil to the moon, FRN to nothing.

scatterbrains's picture

Copper surges higher on the news. I'm wondering if each additional dose of herion going forward, more and more only serves to prevent equity prices from turning lower while the commodity baskets lurch higher and higher.  I can't imagine new highs in equities while   the world is in a depression but I can imagine eqities testing and falling back from the all time highs for many years while commodities double and double again until one day we observe the slightest uptick in commercial realestate prices.

FEDbuster's picture

Here in AZ we are back to late 90's prices. Down 40-60% from 2006 peak depending on area and price. Foreclosure numbers continue to rise. America's largest asset class is in a death spiral, but the "wealth effect" stock market pump continues to dominate the news. CNBS spent about 2 minutes on this bad news real estate story. The old dude from S&P was on for like 15 seconds.

youngman's picture

Bizarro day is right...I always thought those Athenians were I know they are celebrating..why...because the other European idiots just paid their welfare for another few on on..he who dies with the most welfare wins...

oogs66's picture

maybe we need to see riots in Germany protesting giving away any more money.  nothing seems to stop this market from going higher

flattrader's picture

If he who dies with the most welfare wins, the banksters are (of course) ahead of the game.

Welfare for the wealthy...printed money...oil subsidies...etc...

digalert's picture

Rumbles from the bowels of DC suggest a brand new "Cash4ClunkerHomes" stimuli program.

FEDbuster's picture

I am waiting for Fannie and Freddie to come out with a "rent to own" program for their REO properties. Eliminates the need for a down payment, perfect credit, etc... Rentals of single family homes have increased an avg of 700K/year over the past four years.

Milestones's picture

You may be a hellva lot closer to reality than many may think!!    Milestones

FEDbuster's picture

Imagine the "job creation" in property management and maintenance for millions of government owned "rent to own" homes.  I wonder if SEIU has thought of this one to boost membership numbers?

Id fight Gandhi's picture

I really don't like this new normal economy. It's painful to hear the talking heads champion stocks and recovery when we have housing collapse do broad and deep.

It's this bad with low interest rates and tax credits and all the other shit they threw at it.

CH1's picture

I understand, but that's what talking heads do!

The teleprompters give them happy talk to repeat... that is their job.


dbradsha's picture

Does SRS ever react the way you'd expect to this crap ?

pepperspray's picture

Looks like I'm stuck mowing my in-law's vacant For Sale house lawn again this recovery summer

Harlequin001's picture

and I could buy you a new mower with the money I saved not paying the mortgage I haven't got on the house I don't own which has just plunged in value again resulting in another loss I haven't seen...

It's not all bad...

Cdad's picture

Over at the BlowHorn [CNBC], an upcoming segment promises to debunk the usefulness of "backwards looking economic data points."  So we know that bankers are, indeed, pumping and dumping with an eye towards new their new bonus pool, as the people of the nation actually suffer from said backward looking data.

This is the period where any and all surviving credibility on the criminal lane known as Wall Street takes its last dying breaths.  

As for the equity market, the razor thin bid all morning suggest FUBAR and illegal trading galore as the algos do what they get paid to do...scalp any fool actually buying into any of today's BS. 

Ponzi scheme market.

Expect an announcement from Ben announcement of deafening silence.

oogs66's picture

maybe they could do a series debunking CEO commentary.  As far as I can tell, CEO's have had no better predictive ability than anyone else, yet we listen to their every word on conference calls.  maybe they could show how many CEO's were buying stocks hand over fist in 2007 and 2011 and were not able to buy any back in 2009?  Guess they won't do that, as it would make a lot of their guests irrelevant.

SheepDog-One's picture

Anyone actually buying into the stock pop may as well just jump in the Sea World great white shark tank wearing a T-bone wetsuit.

Cdad's picture

LOL!  You kill me, Dog.

alien-IQ's picture

no doubt this will be interpreted as a just and noble reason to induce another rally...

digitlman's picture

This is great news. Bring home prices back to mid 1990's levels where average folks could actually afford to put down a decent down payment and not have to use accounting parlor tricks to buy a home.

lizzy36's picture

If only people had actual savings for said down payment.

Average folks to busy paying for food and fuel.......

Gordon Freeman's picture

Just think how good the news will be for you, when the prices then go back to the mid-Eighties!  Free mullet with every open house!