Cash For Clunkers Moves To Toxic Financial Stocks
AIG (short interest of 16%) and CIT (13%) are today's latest squeeze puppets (on massive volume). Because non-bankruptcy prospects before both companies are just so hot. Will whoever is pulling all the borrow please fess up already (or will this rumored 3 day unwind finish already so the market can keep going up day after day peacefully please).
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on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:23
#25896
Can you screen for huge reverse split POS stocks with huge short interest? Very solid moon shot investments for the FAS/FAZ crowd.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:24
#25897
Did i get the sum right? Can i have a million dollars please.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:27
#25903
Thanks for finally posting on this insane squeeze in C BAC et al. I have been watching it all morning with amazement and can hardly find anyone even mentioning it. Like we all know - manipulation is only bad when it's on the downside...
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:35
#25915
BAC hurts too much to mention anymore. Might as well talk about those taxpayer losses on AIG...
Number 5 reason for all of the above: DXY just about testing the recent low again.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:44
#25926
I'm just waiting for the DXY to go below previous low .... it is a high probability .... watch how the 75 bil Treasury auction goes this week, and pay close attention to direct and indirect bidders ... that should give you some clue to where the DXY is headed ..
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:02
#25963
Moved to Canadian dollars last year... so the lower the DXY goes the happier I am... the only investment where there is a small illusion that I might be gaining a little real ground. US dollar down... US stocks up... its a wash as far as I'm concerned... and a minefield that non-insiders should not be playing in.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:10
#25975
i was in NZD till April, then got into CAD and some European non-Euro zone currencies, and i watched how the DXY goes lower and lower ... If you can remember the failed auction last week, you can see where the Dollar is headed ...
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:17
#25983
I will soon (for entertainment purposes) have to drive across the Canadian border... so I can drive back into the United States on a shopping expedition and fully understand the new buying power my Canadian dollars will have in the United States :-)
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:21
#25997
buy California
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:36
#26030
Sorry... no go... California is to far into junk status... my asset allocation plan says that I have to stick to higher valuation items like the "Blue Light K-Mart Specials" we call CMBS here in United States.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:28
#25905
check out the bond market...stocks are going to riiiiip higher this afternoon...1:28pm SPX 1000
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:29
#25906
ABK and AHR offer similarly bright prospects. At least AXL can actually claim it's a beneficiary of Cash for Clunkers (but still in the Buys Before Bankruptcy category). All of these +30+% now.
Hmm, wonder what I'll see after I get past A on the alphabetical list...
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:32
#25909
You think THAT'S crazy - check out FRE, FNM and even fucking ABK, for christ's sake; all up 30%.
And, ironically, the Financial Times released an article today on a study done by S&P that showed that the dollar value of prime mortgages in default or delinquency jumped 13.8% between March and June.
That's PRIME mortgages, folks. We are officially through the looking glass.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37add6e8-8159-11de-92e7-00144feabdc0.html
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:34
#25914
But, then again, I'm not really complaining, as I bought me 3K of AIG the other day @ a little under 13. Saw this coming a mile away. I'm just going along to get along at this point (as of now AIG is up 58%.)
If you can't beat 'em...
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:18
#25991
hey Lord
Im not so much concerned about the prime mortgages as im concerned about the coming wave of Alt-A and CRE mortgages. And also if you look at the available data you can see that there is a high percentage of real estate which is officially in foreclosure but, the tenants still live in their houses and the houses are not put on the market ... I expect that the situation will change gradually, but eventually the market will be over-supplied and that will drive the prices down and trigger a new wave of defaults ... and also, while looking solemnly at PrimeM it is a serious problem, but comparing it to the size of the problem in Alt-A, ARMs and CRE this is nothing .. expect that SHTF sometimes next year and during the whole 2011.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:37
#25917
I got an even better one - TGIC. This company is insolvent - officially. No new business. Negative net worth. Their regulator is holding back 40cents on every claim dollar in case they can't pay all claims.
Stock up 35% today.
Such is the world of penny stocks, I know, but the exchanges are embarassing themselves allowing them to stay listed.
2001-redux.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:53
#25945
Hussman (http://www.hussmanfunds.com/weeklyMarketComment.html) has been all over the default of prime. His estimates is that we'll clear the bulk for prime defaults within 2 years and majority of them are still ahead of us.
On a side, here's an interesting quote from one of his recent opines:
"While it's generally true that bull markets are largely spent above the 200-day moving average, it doesn't actually follow that taking 50-day / 200-day crossings as discrete buy and sell signals is unusually profitable, lacking other methods to get you out near the peaks or to avoid whipsaws. Suffice it to say that the true record of those "Golden Cross" signals is bronze at best, with actual 1, 3 and 12 month total returns in the S&P 500 (since 1940) coming in at 1%, 3% and 14% on average. Even those figures, however, benefit from three particular instances where the S&P 500 gained over 40% over the following year – those instances were 1942, 1953, and 1982 – each which began at multiples of just 7-8 times normalized earnings (not the current multiple of nearly double that). Excluding those three instances, the subsequent returns from the Golden Cross are no better than throwing dice. "
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:58
#25951
At least ABK popped on the open from RDN. FNM and FRE didn't pop until after noon. Think it was just being mentioned on ZH?... Party like it's 1999.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:35
#25913
Off topic - Why are people paying $22 for CSCO? That's a forward P/E of almost 20 for stock with no growth this year or next year, based on the forecasts. Looks significantly overvalued to me, but I'm sure that won't stop Wall Street.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:37
#25919
Brand name. Yup the same overspending for brand name goods.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:42
#25923
I guess so. In my opinion stocks with no growth should trade on about 10 times, so even if you allow a premium rating because it's Cisco, then we might push that up to 14 times. That would put the stock around $15.80, roughly 30% lower than it is now.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:38
#25921
Why did they pay $80 in 2000? Greater fool theory. Stocks like that have never traded on fundamentals.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:47
#25925
It was nearly 10 years ago and the internet was new and seductive, the madness of crowds ect ect. However, today the internet is not new, in fact many of us have been using for 10 or more years. Perhaps this is why Cisco has little or no growth.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:17
#25987
Wait until they beat earnings by .00025/cent tonite, they will likely "soar" to $30.00.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:41
#25922
posted on other thread:
ramp in the banks, aig, fnm, fre etc are due to comments RDN made on conference call this morning.
apparently losses on 09 originations are coming in below expectations.
yes, 2009. not 05-07, where the bulk of principal and poor underwriting may lie. 2009.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:50
#25940
I know you are just reposting, but there is no way that's the cause.
This was an effort to push the market higher at a turning point where enough shitty data was getting through to possible cause a pull back.
This market right now is living by the "one day at a time theory."
19 days and counting without more than a 20 point high to low S&P pull back.
If anyone has ever seen that before please let me know.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:42
#25924
we'll see how many taxpayers $billions went to the "counterparties" in second Q when AIG reports this Friday.
short this pig
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:57
#25931
We need a downtick rule!
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:48
#25935
AIG cannot get a downtick - I think we are witnessing the market blowing up before our eyes. Only this blowup is good for the sheeple - until no one's left to cover that is....
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:49
#25937
Old totalitarianism: Set prices by decree. (So USSR.)
New totalitarianism: Set prices using surrogate buyers, robots, and unlimited fiat money.
Using new methods, enlightened leaders can at last control prices properly! No longer will mobs acting selfishly in unregulated marketplaces set prices too high or too low!
Banking is the lifeblood of the economy, and bank stocks should always be expensive so as to recognize the importance of banking in a modern state.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:50
#25941
Fast asset price increase is going on for FASB 'mark to market' rule change. We are in the matrix.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:20
#26249
very good thought. the fasb rule change to bring spv/siv shit back on the balance sheet in 2010 has the ABA (bankers) very, very unhappy.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:52
#25944
The only way to make money in this market is by going long on high short interest stocks. This rally won't stop until every last short has bled to death.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 12:59
#25952
After reading your post I found CMG,- supposedly 45% of the float short interest.
Hahaha
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:04
#25966
I'm also long on DRYS and ANR. I took a small position in CMG too, thanks for the heads up.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:42
#26290
Check out LDK. Something like 60% short....
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:04
#25964
Oh my this is what it has come to. AIG FRE FNM etc etc. This is desperation. Companies are not matching 401ks meaning a 33 percent fall in money going into the market. More unemployed = less market money. More and more people not contributing due to prices skyrocketing think gas it has almost doubled food , utility bills etc. CRE crashing, people living in homes they have not sent in payments for months, banks holding millions of forclosed propertys hoping prices will double in the next year. FDIC not closing banks with neg teir 1 etc etc. The only question is will s+p 1000 be the line in the sand? Just look how many stocks are trading at negative PE or PE of 50 or more. Thought i had seen it all in the nasdaq bubble. Do not know when but this is about to get really ugly.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:15
#25985
Don't forget all the money that is going to get pulled out of the equity market by Baby Boomers that are retiring and need the income. Not to mention wanting to take the tax hit on anything now, rather than future 99% rate.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:05
#25967
Folks have made their money in APPL and AMZN and IBM, so it's time to look for some REAL value, and nothing says Graham and Dodd like AIG and CIT.
Clearly they'll be some new stars on the Morningstar rankings, and it's not going to be Ken Heebner. That fool will be buried beneath stocks with earnings and low multiples and real cash flow.
And none of the talking heads on TV shows even the slightest embarrassment.
They'll be a few dozen fewer hedge funds in the universe after these shorts are covered.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:13
#25982
"...nothing says Graham and Dodd like AIG and CIT." Thank you, you made my day.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:06
#25968
Another 1 PM shift in momentum on SPY. If you are short, you cannot blink because then you are road kill.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:10
#25974
$800 billion goes a long way. Masturbate, rinse and repeat.
I guess if they gave me 4K to buy 30k worth of clunker stock, I might day trade it.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:19
#25994
Don't you guys get it? they have officially short squeezed the last of the junk at this point. hedgies are doing all they can to make huge quick money before the momo of this market is gone. once again the junk is flying
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:31
#26021
Is the SEC going to do something about this or will they continue this behavior? The US stock markets are turning into a fucking emerging markets piece of shit with it's reliability and ability to get manipulated.
Wait, of course the SEC won't do FUCK ALL. They don't give a fuck.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:35
#26026
The SEC is not allowed to to anything, as far as i can tell from the people outside the government, this is not about business anymore, its about saving America from evaporating into historical oblivion .... This market is of high national priority and they will not let it crash ... if they need to, they will print all the fucking greenbacks they have to, just in order the preserve the meaningless simulacrum this market and this economy is ..
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:38
#26031
When even the Icelanders and Latvians are laughing at you, you really are a joke.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:40
#26035
and when a communist country ( China ) laughs at you Treasury Secretary and is teaching you about conservative debt policy you know something is so fucking wrong that it is beyond comprehension ...
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:41
#26036
I am waiting for FAZ to go to $5 and then I will retest the waters. I got burned earlier and figure that between Goldman Sachs, the Chinese and TARP money, a 99.5% decline in FAZ might be almost riskless.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:25
#26255
I hear that on FAZ I rode some calls all the way to worthless. First hit was on PPIP day. Man it sure is hard to be part of this community and watch the market. Talk about separation from reality.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:44
#26041
Pretty much all the bears that are on margin have been killed. The only bears left are the brokerage houses, trying to squeeze each others shorts. The real insult will be the SEC closing the door on shorting once the top is hit at the end of this month.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:50
#26052
CASH FOR CLUNKERS: Where’s The Automotive ETF?
www.etfdailynews.com
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:54
#26063
Just evidence of the irrepressible American spirit. It's what makes us lovable.
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:05
#26083
hahahaha the 'financial trash bins' index went parabolic today
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:58
#26207
Bears be patience.
Whatever comes out of these gates, we've got a better chance of survival if we work together. Do you understand? If we stay together we survive...
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:34
#26275
Found this posted on marketwatch forum about AIG. AIG reports friday with just press release.
"A friend of mine who is a professional trader/money manager was recently forced out of most of his AIG shorts with NO NOTICE. His broker got a call from the SEC, which cited an "emergency mandatory short-covering" rule. The broker had to sell out of the positions *before they even contacted* my friend. "
Link http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/commentstab?guid=9474B05B-7B4B-4DD7-A41F-D6CDE6D82FF5#comment2596094
on Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:35
#26279
What's the big deal, <20% short interest on two blasted stocks, seems like a good risk/reward for a small part of the portfolio, at least with CIT. Look at IRE, AIB, GNW, plenty of cos up from the rubble.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 08:03
#27101
shouldn't "cash for clunkers" be re-named "my tax money for clunkers"
Of course it's successful, giving other peoples $ away, *$@&@#!