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Cassandra's Nightmare
By Jawad Mian of Q Invest
Cassandra's Nightmare
In Greek mythology, Cassandra was a princess of the legendary city of Troy, and the most beautiful of King Priam’s daughters. She was seduced by Apollo, who gave her the ability to predict the future. But when she refused herself to him, he cursed her by making people disbelieve her predictions. So she went around knowing and predicting the future, telling people what was going to happen, but no one ever believed her. She foresaw the fall of Troy, but couldn’t prevent it. Cassandra is a figure both of sagacity and of tragedy, where her combination of deep understanding and powerlessness exemplify the tragic condition of humankind.
I find the mythic origins of the Greek prophetess and the metaphorical application intriguing in so far as it relates to financial markets. What Cassandra sees is something dark and painful that may not be apparent on the surface of things or that objective facts do not corroborate. She may envision a negative or unexpected outcome; or a truth which others, especially authority figures, would not accept. In her frightened, ego-less state, she may blurt out what she sees, perhaps with the unconscious hope that others might be able to make some sense of it. But to them, her words sound meaningless, disconnected and blown out of all proportion.
The stock market will soon start a steady erosion that will scar the life of anyone invested on the wrong side. Profit-taking, profit-taking the savants will say. Do not listen. Markets are very Darwinian, and their tendency will be to deliver an outcome that would make a greater fool of the investing majority. The sentiment amongst equity mutual fund managers clearly illustrates that the consensus is fully invested today. Mutual funds’ cash holdings have reached a record low of 3.4%, the lowest reading in the 60 year history of the indicator. That means investors are even more fully invested than they were in 2000 and 2007, despite having been through two merciless bear markets in the previous decade.
Changing viewpoints is a gradual process. Flipping from bullish to bearish, and vice versa is difficult. We remember what most recently rewarded us, and internalize that. After a period of economic expansion, we are slow to grasp the change for the worse. Consensus earnings estimates for 2011 and 2012 are still greater than $95 and $108, respectively, at the same time that GDP estimates are plummeting. To put these figures into perspective, analysts were forecasting a near 20 percent decline in earnings at the market’s trough. Today, expectations are for 22 percent growth in the year ahead. Following that idea, the analyst community is typically too bullish at tops and too bearish at bottoms. Hence, they miss the inflection points. We are right on the cusp of falling forward earnings.
It is not that the price level of the market is unsoundly high. The fall in the market is going to be very largely due to the psychology by which it is going down because it is going down. The psychology of panic will then permeate social and economic interactions, influencing consumption of goods and assumption of debt as well as smaller everyday decisions that are difficult to measure, but which add up to a decreased sense of well-being. In due course, it will also serve to tip us into another economic recession. The weight of the evidence clearly points to a double dip. Those that can’t see this simply don’t want to.
Cassandra has become the archetype for many prophetic characters who are either ignored or cannot be comprehended until after an event has occurred. Our catastrophic failure to heed caution has much to do with our preference to look at the surface rather than what underlies appearances. Sometimes illusions are far more comfortable than reality. That may explain the unchecked investor optimism and the market’s deluded state of mind. Make no mistake - the current rally is a myth. From the standpoint of the Greek philosopher Solon: ‘Observing the numerous misfortunes that attend all conditions forbids us to grow insolent upon our present enjoyments. For the uncertain future has yet to come, with every possible variety of fortune.’
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Once again, all I needed to know I learned last Monday.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/primary-dealers-prepare-invest-27-billi...
If AAPL goes red, look out.
uh...now
Don't forget that the next POMO is tomorrow. And again on Friday. They're going to try and keep these balls in the air as long as possible. Or die trying.
Inevitably, they will die trying.
Though some might tie dying
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tie-dye
Yes I'm that old
excellent. i will replace my BAC short at noon tomorrow.
Not AAPL! Say it ain't so, Harry. Say it ain't so.
Whew! No kidding! Almost looked like it might close red there for a minute.
so, uh, where do we think JPM opens tomorrow when gold goes thru 1300 tonight....and silver hits 21.50?
or, in his dying act, is Larry going to force the taxpayers to take that loss as well? to "save" JPM?
You have to love the JPM mad rush to reorg to go after growth in emerging markets. At what point does the Dimon cult get shattered once and for all. the guy arrived in 2004? While he was so rpeciently cutting back his mortgage operation he obviously wasn't focused the retail footprint (narrow banking) or the "growth" markets. too busy trying to pick up CITs factoring business on the cheap. This guy is worse than the teflon don
prediction muse, beautiful muse, bitchez.
Myth - you can bail out countries by loaning them money.
Myth - printing money creates wealth.
Myth - consumerism creates happiness.
Myth - the Fed has the country's interest at heart.
Myth - the two party system actually presents a choice.
Myth - homes are a good investment.
traderjoe, the destroyer of public myths. All hail traderjoe.
+1
"homes are a good investment" is not a myth. You need to escape the american mentality of buying stuff on credit. Right now buying homes cash and renting them gives the best and safest return. If you dont believe me i invite you to come see my properties and the cash flow they generate.
Homes as rental properties can be good investments, depending upon local factors. But, then I might call them commercial real estate.
The current paradigm of owning a home for 30 years as a piggy bank, has been packaged as a part of the American Dream by realtors, local taxing districts, large corporations (creating debt slaves), and banks. And those gains people are making? Take out cost of carry, insurance, maintenance, depreciation (remodels), etc. and I'd be willing to bet it's a push at best. And it keeps you strapped down as the job market gets increasing mobile.
it worked for me, almost for 30 yrs. landlord business. nothing easy, but the IRS if very favorable towards rental income of property.
"almost for 30 yrs." That is the key phrase. The ones raking in the cash are the people who bought in before the boom (e.g. - the pre-Robert Kiyosaki era). All the rest of the real estate "investors" are just suckers or late to the party.
don't know about raking. can you believe i bought my 2 acres, from a classified ad i saw in the local paper, for $12,000. and paid cash in 1974. my father-in-law fcked up building the house, big time.
homes are a good investment.
They were for 107 yrs...............until you start allowing deadbeats into them for free.
Myth - The Decepticrats "care" about people.
Myth - The Republicons "know" what businesses need from Govt.
The Fed, Treasury, banks, and stock market are a closed loop through which "money" is being pumped to make things appear better than they are. They aren't letting any cash out into the "real" economy. Their plan is to make things appear good enough with the help of the MSM to make people start spending money and get the economy going again, at which point the "money" would be extracted from the system. The main reason the NBER called the end to the recession in June '09 was because the markets have been pumped up since the Fed started QE. The real truth is that we're still in a depression.
The Fed isn't in any rush to get it's "money" back since it was created out of thin air. It's main goal is to try and preserve for itself the obscenely lucrative position it has been in since it's origination as America's money creator.
+1 insightful
Next, the Fed will saw a lady in half!
Only if she has evidence of their wrongdoing!
I know of one Charles Biederman who fits your role of Cassandra. Has stated that government figures on the economy "make no sense" and are likely made up. Maybe his day has come at last.
maybe Zh can reconcile how the personal income gains since 2007/8 reconcile with the lst 8M workers at the average weekly wage? Then reconcile how DPI of a cume 1.9T since 2007 has somehow gone missing instead of either reduced debt or resising financial assets - gold notwithstanding
It was the full on Bulltard parade at cnbs did it climaxed by Cramer hoot-rant at plus 75
uh...what?
LOL, exactly!!!
The Wall Street/Pennsylvania Avenue duo are the ultimate keepers of the public myth, the so called "stock market". It's supposed to represent "economic reality". I suspect it ceased being so many many decades ago.
Wasn't it Greenspan who essentially started that myth? I would say that the myth is still in play unless you want to call it propoganda, which is closer to our reality. It is a useful lie, created for a purpose, and sourced as truth.
You cannot be an oligarch if you cannot control people. Fact. To control people you need to program behavioral buttons into their brains that you can push when you need to. Tie people's sense of worth to something you can actually control -- like market performance and stock prices -- then you can control their moods up and down to suit you just by fiddling with the market. Get them to do all sorts of crazy things, like buy housing they cannot afford on the premise that everything is going up in value to the moon.
If you are an oligarch and you allow people to actually think about Things That Matter (tm) then you cannot control their mood nearly as easily, and then only by out-right lies. Or murder. It gets ugly.
Used to be, nobody cared about stocks and bonds. They were investment vehicles, not trading platforms like baseball cards. You bought into companies you thought had value to own the company. You took dividends quarterly and maybe every few years sold stocks where the company in question either deviated from earnings or became a different company from what you invest in originally or when new industries or companies caught your fancy. Meaning, you had a strategy.
There is no strategy now. Only gambling. Technical readings. Goat entrails.
Only it's not working any more, is it Sparky?
Cassandra Peterson?
http://celeblust.net/cassandra_peterson/
Christine O'Donnell is not a Nazi
I used to watch her show for ... the humor. She's fairly funny in a boisterous, obnoxious way.
The first movie she made was a real hoot!
S&P can't hold its erection. Sad....
Hard to be bearish with cyclicals like CAT and CMI making fresh, new, 52-week highs.
No commentary on yellow rocks? Heh.
There are trend followers and forecasters. You see a continuing trend, I see the completion of the fifth wave in the primary sequence with bullish sentiment at an extreme, oscillators overbought, and traders thinking unreasonable thoughts as to why this can go on (FED POMO, for example). The greater fool has not arrived, the hands of the players have already been cleared (mutual fund cash levels at a historical low), even the banksters are short (see COT reports for details). Who wins in the end, the trend followers or the banksters?
Put it all on Black! (Oops, I meant 00!)
Again zeroHedge missed the rally and wants all of you to think that it is a myth.
Well, I'm looking at my SPY's position and what can I tell you, the "myth" brought me a lot of money since the start of September.
Just face it, you were wrong. It is no shame to admit it.
Hey Cramer, Is that you? Booo yaah!
Maybe ZH was wrong...maybe not. It's like that fantastic line from Charlie Wilson's War: "Wait and see."
Dow 2000. Prechter's WTF forecast
http://tinyurl.com/3yf6fwm
It's not a matter of ZH being wrong. ZH mostly posts the reality of the ECONOMY and the looniness of it. Been dead on with that.
Again, repeat after me, the stock market has no correlation with the economy. Not a whole lot of (other than guest posts) of ZH calling the market, just giving you macro economic data.
+1
Were doing just fine, in fact GOLDEN.
Don't be a jack off
This head and shoulders breakout on SPY is coming on zero volume.. when it fails it's going to fail big just as it failed big back in the summer of 09 going the other way.
I think most on ZH acknowledge short term bull based on manipulation and padded stats..
Stay by the door and make sure you can reach it once you smell the smoke..
CNBC/Yahoo boards slow today, eh? Or is dumbassinvestor.com site down, too?
PRU has just delivered a $2 spike on 2.5 million share.
Update: PRU buying 2 AIG units in Japan.
I dub this rally...
flat and dead...with no volume...TZA is back in the "buy" cycle btw if anyone is concerned about making money.
Keep the stop loss tight.
Sorry, but almost all the humans I know are over-powerful idiots -- just ask the polar bears.
They would have spared the polar bears if they could have, if they had been allowed to, if preserving them wasn't treason.
Powerless. Defined.
Be careful when discussing polar bears...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/wildlife/8014541/ITV-embarrassed-by-report-of-polar-bear-washed-up-on-beach.html
Oh I thought we were talking about "polar bears" in the abstract. Like market bears and bulls. Only polar bears are really down on the market. Way down, like sub-zero. Like S&P500 at sub-zero points relative to gold. Get it? Huh? Am I funny?
You mean real polar bears might be in trouble? In which case, never mind.
I just now made that up. About the market polar bears. I really do sense the real polar bears will become extinct in the wild before too long. Reproductive failure. Will be a great loss, once it happens. We are and will remain powerless to save them.
"I really do sense the real polar bears will become extinct in the wild before too long. Reproductive failure. Will be a great loss, once it happens. We are and will remain powerless to save them."
More Global Warming Al Gore Lies............a REAL Count was done, and debunked that BS in a huge way.
Fact, there are MORE Polar Bears than there ever have been........
So much for Global Warming Bullshit.
.06* increase in last 12 yrs.
Your personal demons are charming, I'm sure. I suggest you seek help from a qualified mental health practitioner who deals in delusional episodes.
I'm a biologist. Don't ever fuck with me in my domain. If I tell you the polar bears are at risk of reproductive failure, then they are. You are permitted to ask me why they are at risk. Otherwise you are permitted to shut the fuck up.
Cheers.
(See, that's what Cassandra should have done. "I've seen it, that's why. Precognition is my god-damned domain. You don't believe it, fine then you can die along with everyone else. Now get the fuck away from me you dead POC.")
cougar, i thought i read a while back i read from one of your posts, you wrote novels?
A biologist who writes novels and network software and engineers bicycles and builds houses.
There are days I cannot even keep up with myself.
I probably should not have been too hard on that guy. It's not like he knew in advance that I'm a polymath hard ass living each day on the bleeding edge of what is humanly possible. Oh well.
your the shit† oh well!
the mafia probably did it.
No one ever said that quality night table reading can be absorbed by simply reading the lead paragraph of the executive summary.
Cassandra was right. And we all know what happened to her.
For all you bulls out there, if it is not the FED via POMO, who is putting money to work in the market??
This whole thing/run since the breakdown from the top is getting less and less real. In fact it is Surreal. There it is, make what you want of it, just know that it is like a mirage in the desert...cool clear water, it is mirage not a man...as the song goes.
Most of the belief has to do with the believing the crutch of sophistry. People need to stop believing that bullshit. Seriously.
When someone makes a dumbass decision, when the info was right there around them, it's usually because they believed the sophistry.
Sometimes there isn't two sides. Sometimes only ONE is valid. The other pure bs. (think fox news...kings of sophistry) We let YOU decide if what we say is bs. Oops, you don't have it in you to dispel it, so you believe it.
Usually mental sloth and the lack of intellectual curiousity allows sohpistry to be substituted for what's really going on.
Then people take these real life implementation of what sophistry devises, see derivaties, 401ks, housing always going up (and thus buying homes), statistical modelling, and just about everything going on in this world and screw you over.
Hell if you've been working on wall street since 1971, you've never seen a day, or experienced anything other than one big giant sophistric lie. No wonder all these experts are looking like Forrest Gump. Because they were only experienced in a rigged and controlled system. Now that the system has lost control and is collapsing, don't expect much more than even more bullshit sophistry from the idiots that believed it the whole time, and still can't pull themselves away from it now that it's finished post 2007-2008.
Empiricism isn't the best, in fact, it is quite flawed. Our Queen's Imperialist Monetary System (said as an American who doesn't wish it, but recognizes it for what it IS) has driven trucks through this, using sophistry, and most beiieved the sophistry the whole time and will continue to until it kills or bankrupts them. (not to mention America and the whole world).
Mental Sloth, ain't it amazing what it can happen when its allowed to fester for a couple of generations? So many 'smart' people, stupider in practice than Forrest Gump. Because the economic religion they espouse is no more truthful than some guy in the 1800's writing a bunch of bullshit on golden tablets (in two different ways no less).
You mean Native American Tribes aren't the 13th tribe of Israel?
You mean these statistical models, and every monetary tool we used is a lie, not to mention every bit of wealth we've extracted has been a conincidence within the framework of a rigged market, and thus everything we learned is bullshit nothing?
Yep.
It's the physical economy stupid.
Impeach Nerobama
Glass/Steagall or die
Cancel the bailouts
North American Water And Power Act
Real space program
Nuclear, now. Fusion, later. (funding for research NOW)
No other way out. Don't let the sophistry of the Queen and her banksters, or any other idiot dissuade you. We won't survive otherwise. We're getting close to last call, so make up your mind. Continue being an idiot (the world...including America), or wake up and change. Support REAL measures, that REALLY work, and REALLY progress the human mind, spirit, and have the added benefits of making things better and more sustainable (in a non-queen's WWF fascist way). Or lose it all. Your choice, if you choose wrong, you'll have the rest of your life (probably short) to ponder the sophistry of how you made the wrong choice, but there was nothing you could of done or thought to change it. BS.
All the laws we needed to right our economic ship were on congresses' desk in 2007. Meaning the experience of this whole downturn, was chosen. It was not a given, it was just a given, given our propensity to keep the bullshit going...and THAT'S why we have the downturn.
It didn't need to be this way. It doesn't need to get worse. BUt by god it will if we don't completely stop this crap from happening RIGHT NOW. Once things collapse, all the answers we have today, probably won't work. SO take the offer NOW. Or cry like a baby later, and yes, you will.
Sophistry bitchez!!!
+10000 internets for you my friend.
As a youth attending religious instruction classes, I was informed by Father Riley that the Irish were the lost tribe of Israel, God's most chosen people. The Polish and Italian kids in the class didn't buy it.
jmc,
It didn't need to be this way. It doesn't need to get worse. BUt by god it will if we don't completely stop this crap from happening RIGHT NOW. Once things collapse, all the answers we have today, probably won't work. SO take the offer NOW. Or cry like a baby later, and yes, you will.
Absolutely correct, but they NEEDED it this way.Yes it does, so they can finish the PLAN.
And, regardless of what we do, there is no stopping it..........
The fact that some here still do not get this.....is beyond me.
All right, put the brain down and back away slowly so no one gets hurt here. :>D
The author is correct, but he has a myopia similar to the fund managers he criticizes.
The author's expected "double-dip" is already happening in the US markets.
You just have to measure the market in gold, not FRNs.
Use gold as your unit of account, and the expected double-dip is already here.
This is called by some the Dow:Gold ratio.
Look at this ratio over 100 years, and you will see that the US Markets have much lower to go, when measured in gold.
If you measure in FRNs, the market could stay flat or even go up, because the FED can print infinite FRNs at will. But they can't print real gold.
Darn it, rulers made of rubber are all the rage around the world! :>D
To the editors of ZH....I've read your fantastic blog for months now. Without a doubt it is a source for some of the most honest financial information out there. However, I just have to say, that the relentless bearishness is getting to be too much. Of course there are real, structural issues with the global economy, but the endless amounts of depression present in your writing is at times ridiculous. I would hate to see what your P&L looks like if you trade based on your sentiment.
ZH is pretty bullish on gold. "There's always a bull market somewhere..."
"relentless bearishness is getting to be too much".. Well you can look at ZH as reality, or fantasy. Take a guess where CNBC and WSJ lies..
Nature abhors a vacuum, thinking that the law only applied to power and gas is very silly.
No worries, it's always darkest just before it's completely black! :>D
"The lapse of time during which a given event has not happened, is, in this logic of habit, constantly alleged as a reason why the event should never happen, even when the lapse of time is precisely the added condition which makes the event imminent." -Silas Marner
I've been on the sidelines for several years now, and I'm getting tired of the Chinese Water Torture of my money being devalued drip by drip each day. Tired is the wrong word -- antsy is more accurate. I'm feeling that soon I will have to get back into stocks, and I'm guessing I'm not the only one getting fidgety. If there is truly a large amount of fiat currency on the "sidelines", sooner or later it's going to get funneled into an asset. People are going to get tired of watching their money rot away slowly. I actually feel sorry for the Fed because they have pumped so much money into the economy, it is going to cause major turbulence when they try to withdraw money with interest rate hikes.
Gold, silver, land -- all excellent choices at this juncture.
How humble Tyler.. So you are saying that like Cassandra Gods have endowed you with ability to see th future .. Where is the empirical evidence for that? You come across like a one trick pony.. Always short .. I am bearish from here for the next 8-10% but I am willing to take both sides of the market .. Your framework either doesn't exist or absolutely wrong.. Yes economy sucks and will suck for a while but what does that have to do with the stock market? S&P 500 only represents 10% of all business revenues in the economy and the best quality revenue at that.. I think you need a more robust framework than saying "everything sucks - let's sell some stocks.." .. Chump!
Say that again? I do not recall ever seeing any financial advice from Tyler here, only economic (and related) news -- things the MSM never seem to find room for -- therefore, another JUNK for you!
Mutual funds’ cash holdings have reached a record low of 3.4%, the lowest reading in the 60 year history of the indicator. That means investors are even more fully invested than they were in 2000 and 2007, despite having been through two merciless bear markets in the previous decade.
most of this cash is probably in bonds rather than stocks
"In Greek mythology, Cassandra was a princess of the legendary city of Troy"
Hmm, btw, Troy was found. Does that change anything? Does it make Cassandra more or less mythical or real?
Does it make todays economic mumblings by B.S. Bernanke more intelligible?
Look at the market, yes it is going up and down. Look at gold. It is going up. Look at the dollar. It is going down. Look at the economy. It is going up on inflationary measures and cost cuttings and mark to something accounting, but stand back for a big picture view it is going down.
Common thread; those which can be manipulated are. Lesson, play a different game if you want to not lose (not the same as winning...)
Cassandra says she likes gold and silver, but all that glitters is not gold (paper???)
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