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Catching Up With Technical Analyst to the Stars, Charles Nenner

madhedgefundtrader's picture




 

That was the gist of my conversation with my old friend, Charles Nenner, who flew over from Europe to spend a weekend jamming with fellow musicians in the Big Apple. The wily Dutchman is looking forward to a week of media appearances and consulting with his major hedge fund clients.

Charles is not yet ready to short the US stock market. While the rally is definitely showing advanced signs of age, the upside momentum is impressive, so he would rather stand aside. His extreme, best case target for the S&P 500 is 1356.

Nenner caught a short play in gold earlier in the year, on which I was able to ride the coattails. Now that we are back up to all times highly he is looking for a repeat. Ditto for silver. I’ll let you know when he pulls the trigger.

Charles is looking for further weakness in bonds, but doesn’t see a crash. His preferred play is a short volatility one whereby he shorts puts on both the 10 year and 30 year September bond futures contract at the 110 level. That equates to a yield of 4.2% on the 10 year and 5.2% for the 30 year. If yields don’t get that high, he keeps the entire premium from the short put trade. If he goes in the money, he is quite happy owning bonds at these levels which he can then sell on the next rally.

He agreed with my own view that we are in the midst of a major long term bull market for the grains and commodities. His next target is $4.84 for copper, up 5.6% from today’s level of $4.49. The food sector is getting an assist from high oil prices, as all types of farming have substantial energy inputs. He promised to get back to me on specific targets for corn, wheat, and soybeans. Suffice it to say, that you better be stockpiling your seven years of plenty.

We agreed that our previous bet over Cisco (CSCO) was a push. I was right, in that I was able to capture a quick double of my capital on my call spread, and then scampered. He was right when an earnings disappointment ultimately caused the stock to crash once again. We may well put on the same bet again, for a case of the fiery case of the Dutch liquor, Bols, when I strap this trade on again after the next generalized equity sell off.

I always end every one of our conversations by pinning Charles down on the one trade he would pull the trigger on today with new money. Wait for the Euro to hit $1.40 against the dollar, and then go short, with a $1.4050 stop. At that point the European currency will have had an impressive 12 cent rally against the greenback and will be well overdue for a correction. European Central Bank president Jean Clause-Trichet has shot his wad with his promise today of rate hikes, and from here traders will want to see the color of his money. But break the $1.4050 stop and you should run for the hills, as the next target is $1.46.

I promised to take him wave hopping in my plane on his visit to the West coast. He agreed, as long as I promised not to do it upside down.
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.

 

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Wed, 04/06/2011 - 17:05 | 1142749 JennifersBody
JennifersBody's picture

"I was talking to my old friend, the ex____ of _____" while zipping around in my plane. Which reminded of the time I met GWB tooling around in my Nissan Leaf which saves me $3.69 per year in fuel charges. I plug the Leaf into my big friggin mouth, but what?.. you've heard this story three times already. What, say you? I'm a senile old windbag? What, I never tell you when to get out of a trade I never really called but take all the credit? Well thank you for supporting my research and please come to see me at the Red Roof Inn in Newton, Iowa next week.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 12:57 | 1071975 ExploitTheMarket
ExploitTheMarket's picture

Didn't take too long to hit that $1.4050 stop loss did it?

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 07:22 | 1070521 dojiman
dojiman's picture

Better run for the Hills mate, your short has blown up

1 4130 last bid

 

 

 

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 05:43 | 1070435 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Hey, Money McBags is more humorous and certainly understands capital markets better than this name dropping "mad man".  Is this supposed to be useful in any way?  Why is this joker posting on this site?  Comments were amusing though so not a total waste of time.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 09:25 | 1094758 oddjob
oddjob's picture

MHFT told everyone that Silver was a sell at $26,he should go back to giving sponge baths to hobos in boxcars.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 23:58 | 1070003 agrotera
agrotera's picture

 madhedgefundtrader you are such a funny guy!!!

I read your articles like they are the beginning of a joke...and then everyone in the comment section completes the jokes you set up-- i always leave thoroughly satisfied from several great laughs! 

Thanks everyone for the big laughs!!!

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 23:00 | 1069843 Rastadamus
Rastadamus's picture

What a rough crowd. This is savage attack on the Mad Hedge who has been wrong recently. But to saveage him like this is not sporting.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 23:31 | 1069936 VeloSpade
VeloSpade's picture

The Mad Head Fudge Packer is very much deserving of this ridicule however "iconoclastic out of consensus" these truthfull comments may be.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 22:17 | 1069699 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Gold, silver topping.

Right, and the riots, protests and killings in the Middle East, Africa will be solved and ok in a few days. No problem with Japan, inflation is in check, oil at 103 is just for a day or so. Our govt. is doing fine, is honest, and confides in us and advises us daily and benny is going to stop printing since the recovery is now self sustaining. Oh, and I expect 250,000 new jobs each month for the rest of the year. And the easy trade now is bonds.

Yup, back to American Idol. All is well.

Man oh Man

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 21:37 | 1069544 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

What a self-congratulatory douche!  Didn't he just say oil topped and is going down yesterday?  Just fade his 'calls' and you can have your own plane too...

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 20:30 | 1069252 Timothy
Timothy's picture

Gold and silver are topping?

What?

No more big moves all year?

What?

LOL

His hedge fund clients are getting fucked.

Bonds aren't going to collapse?

What?

P.S. Tyler should install a feature so we can junk articles.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 16:34 | 1068218 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

This is Krugman writing this, isn't it?

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 17:50 | 1068512 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

MHFT looks suspiciously like a less pudgy, less Shrek, Jamie Dimon.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 16:31 | 1068197 Freddie
Freddie's picture

"Charles Nenner, who flew over from Europe to spend a weekend jamming with fellow musicians in the Big Apple."

Probably playing Smoke on The Water.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 21:25 | 1069482 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Twinkle Twinkle then Row Your Boat for an encore.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 16:14 | 1068117 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Look if the jewel of the crown (Japan) breaks then the dollar is DED dead.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 15:51 | 1067988 VeloSpade
VeloSpade's picture

This Mad Head Fudge Packer (MHFP) is a crock full of shit. 

Tyler, please revoke his posting privledges now. 

...fucking head giving fudge packing idiot to the "stars"...lol

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 16:32 | 1068210 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

but how do you really feel........

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 16:57 | 1068315 VeloSpade
VeloSpade's picture

Bullish ;)

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 15:43 | 1067931 CIABS
CIABS's picture

june euro futures target = 1.4237.  let's see what happens.

oh, and saying, a week into the japan crisis, that not much more is going to happen in markets this year: that's a joke.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 23:05 | 1069861 CIABS
CIABS's picture

(11pm, same day)

stopped out!  good thing it was only on the simulator.

target: 1.4237  (june futures)

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 15:09 | 1067706 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

This is a mixture of name dropping and investment detritus tossed off like used condoms.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 19:36 | 1069034 Phat Stax
Phat Stax's picture

...all that aside Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the show?

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 15:40 | 1067885 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

So, did you like the article?

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 18:15 | 1068609 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

er, like a dose of the first 4 letters of your nom be plume (no offense)

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 03:15 | 1070346 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Aye, used condoms full of his salty wad inside and on the outside the DNA from the ground off bits of wart and shit from blankfein's arsehole.

:o

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 13:48 | 1067325 newstreet
newstreet's picture

Buy Dollar/Yen at 83.20.  What a great call that was a few weeks back.

I'm rich!!!!! I'm rich!!!!!  Oh, wait a minute.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 13:37 | 1067288 sulfur
sulfur's picture

sorry but this article sucks completely more like cnbc cramer level

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 13:21 | 1067222 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Gold and silver are topping?  Hmmm.......

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 13:07 | 1067136 Oquities
Oquities's picture

welcome to this week's edition of "I attempt to be subtly arrogant while plugging my butt-buddy's advisory service."

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 22:55 | 1077519 Ted K
Ted K's picture

I hope MHFT uses plenty of lubricant when talking to Charles.  I thought it sounded like he was moaning when he gave those ticker symbols. 

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 13:06 | 1067132 slvrizgold
slvrizgold's picture

MHFT flys Douche Bag Air.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 12:56 | 1067090 Freebird
Freebird's picture

I dunno why this guy gets airspace ... with old chuck nincumpoop as well. Dartboard anyone?

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 12:36 | 1067019 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Are these the same 'stars' who invested with Bernie Madoff per chance??

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 12:13 | 1066927 Keep It Simple ...
Keep It Simple Stupid's picture

I nominate this for moronic statement of the week.

 

"Many asset classes are about to settle down into boring, predictable trading ranges."

 

Please show me these "predictable" ranges so I can retire by the end of the year.

 

Does anyone take this moron seriously?

 

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 11:56 | 1066858 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Seems every post this guy makes ends with "my airplane" or "chalet in the swiss alps"

No one gives a fuck.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 18:50 | 1068790 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"my airplane IN my swiss chalet" suits the zeitgeist better...

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 21:34 | 1069498 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

+3

LOL

How about "my swiss chalet IN my airplane"?

I need a(nother) green beer.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 11:28 | 1066714 Nout Wellink
Nout Wellink's picture

Nenner announced a short in crude oil, just before it jumped from $ 87 to $ 105 in 2 wweks time. If you are shorting crude while the middle east is burning, there is something seriously wrong with your investing method.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 11:24 | 1066690 Mister Rumbles
Mister Rumbles's picture

"Guys, I have an airplane. I know what I'm talking about."

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 11:52 | 1066831 zaknick
zaknick's picture

I'm not an experienced trader and even I can tell this guy is kookoo for cocoa puffs - as in your investment goes puff and disappears!

To say that the biggest moves of 2011 are done is an idiotic statement.

Mayday, mayday the Captain is a suicidal kamikaze!

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 10:59 | 1066569 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I like how whenever Nenner is pinned down to an actual prediction, he is wrong. But on something ambiguos like "someday do this", he counts that as a win.  Nenner has been right only one time that I know of.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 10:44 | 1066523 Elmer Fudd
Elmer Fudd's picture

What does technical analysis have to do with the price of tea in China? Or in other words, an unforcasted natural disaster with serious ramifications? 

"the best respnse would be to post zero comments on his next effort"

or as Sandy said to Spongebob, "you're a funnny little dood."

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 10:24 | 1066442 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Technical Analyst to the Stars? Is this show on right after Dancing with the Stars?

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 10:23 | 1066438 campag
campag's picture

Why .oh why does he write ?

just to annoy ?

the best respnse would be to post zero comments on his next effort

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 10:33 | 1066434 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

Damn I love the moronic call that all the big moves for 2011 were done LOL - since that statement was last weekend I found it hilarious!

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 10:02 | 1066360 sangell
sangell's picture

Sheesh, MHFT! Yesterday Japan was on its knees and today its business as usual in your investment world. I understand you have to develop fresh angles but, as is so often the case in recent times, we resolve nothing but simply pretend that what was is over and go on to the next thing. Unfortunately, we can't do that here.

 

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 10:00 | 1066347 anvILL
anvILL's picture

I read the MHFT's commentary on commodities as a leading indicator,
and use his commentary on anything Japaese as a contrarian indicator.

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 09:49 | 1066309 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

"I promised to take him wave hopping in my plane on his visit to the West coast. He agreed, as long as I promised not to do it upside down."

Why not run it into a ditch instead?

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 09:33 | 1066246 pendragon
pendragon's picture

time to get some new technical analysis. this guy's recent calls have been atrocious...even in the trending markets

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