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Catching Up With Technical Analyst to the Stars, Charles Nenner
That was the gist of my conversation with my old friend, Charles Nenner, who flew over from Europe to spend a weekend jamming with fellow musicians in the Big Apple. The wily Dutchman is looking forward to a week of media appearances and consulting with his major hedge fund clients.
Charles is not yet ready to short the US stock market. While the rally is definitely showing advanced signs of age, the upside momentum is impressive, so he would rather stand aside. His extreme, best case target for the S&P 500 is 1356.
Nenner caught a short play in gold earlier in the year, on which I was able to ride the coattails. Now that we are back up to all times highly he is looking for a repeat. Ditto for silver. I’ll let you know when he pulls the trigger.
Charles is looking for further weakness in bonds, but doesn’t see a crash. His preferred play is a short volatility one whereby he shorts puts on both the 10 year and 30 year September bond futures contract at the 110 level. That equates to a yield of 4.2% on the 10 year and 5.2% for the 30 year. If yields don’t get that high, he keeps the entire premium from the short put trade. If he goes in the money, he is quite happy owning bonds at these levels which he can then sell on the next rally.
He agreed with my own view that we are in the midst of a major long term bull market for the grains and commodities. His next target is $4.84 for copper, up 5.6% from today’s level of $4.49. The food sector is getting an assist from high oil prices, as all types of farming have substantial energy inputs. He promised to get back to me on specific targets for corn, wheat, and soybeans. Suffice it to say, that you better be stockpiling your seven years of plenty.
We agreed that our previous bet over Cisco (CSCO) was a push. I was right, in that I was able to capture a quick double of my capital on my call spread, and then scampered. He was right when an earnings disappointment ultimately caused the stock to crash once again. We may well put on the same bet again, for a case of the fiery case of the Dutch liquor, Bols, when I strap this trade on again after the next generalized equity sell off.
I always end every one of our conversations by pinning Charles down on the one trade he would pull the trigger on today with new money. Wait for the Euro to hit $1.40 against the dollar, and then go short, with a $1.4050 stop. At that point the European currency will have had an impressive 12 cent rally against the greenback and will be well overdue for a correction. European Central Bank president Jean Clause-Trichet has shot his wad with his promise today of rate hikes, and from here traders will want to see the color of his money. But break the $1.4050 stop and you should run for the hills, as the next target is $1.46.
I promised to take him wave hopping in my plane on his visit to the West coast. He agreed, as long as I promised not to do it upside down.
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
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"I was talking to my old friend, the ex____ of _____" while zipping around in my plane. Which reminded of the time I met GWB tooling around in my Nissan Leaf which saves me $3.69 per year in fuel charges. I plug the Leaf into my big friggin mouth, but what?.. you've heard this story three times already. What, say you? I'm a senile old windbag? What, I never tell you when to get out of a trade I never really called but take all the credit? Well thank you for supporting my research and please come to see me at the Red Roof Inn in Newton, Iowa next week.
Didn't take too long to hit that $1.4050 stop loss did it?
Better run for the Hills mate, your short has blown up
1 4130 last bid
Hey, Money McBags is more humorous and certainly understands capital markets better than this name dropping "mad man". Is this supposed to be useful in any way? Why is this joker posting on this site? Comments were amusing though so not a total waste of time.
MHFT told everyone that Silver was a sell at $26,he should go back to giving sponge baths to hobos in boxcars.
madhedgefundtrader you are such a funny guy!!!
I read your articles like they are the beginning of a joke...and then everyone in the comment section completes the jokes you set up-- i always leave thoroughly satisfied from several great laughs!
Thanks everyone for the big laughs!!!
What a rough crowd. This is savage attack on the Mad Hedge who has been wrong recently. But to saveage him like this is not sporting.
The Mad Head Fudge Packer is very much deserving of this ridicule however "iconoclastic out of consensus" these truthfull comments may be.
Gold, silver topping.
Right, and the riots, protests and killings in the Middle East, Africa will be solved and ok in a few days. No problem with Japan, inflation is in check, oil at 103 is just for a day or so. Our govt. is doing fine, is honest, and confides in us and advises us daily and benny is going to stop printing since the recovery is now self sustaining. Oh, and I expect 250,000 new jobs each month for the rest of the year. And the easy trade now is bonds.
Yup, back to American Idol. All is well.
Man oh Man
What a self-congratulatory douche! Didn't he just say oil topped and is going down yesterday? Just fade his 'calls' and you can have your own plane too...
Gold and silver are topping?
What?
No more big moves all year?
What?
LOL
His hedge fund clients are getting fucked.
Bonds aren't going to collapse?
What?
P.S. Tyler should install a feature so we can junk articles.
This is Krugman writing this, isn't it?
MHFT looks suspiciously like a less pudgy, less Shrek, Jamie Dimon.
"Charles Nenner, who flew over from Europe to spend a weekend jamming with fellow musicians in the Big Apple."
Probably playing Smoke on The Water.
Twinkle Twinkle then Row Your Boat for an encore.
Look if the jewel of the crown (Japan) breaks then the dollar is DED dead.
This Mad Head Fudge Packer (MHFP) is a crock full of shit.
Tyler, please revoke his posting privledges now.
...fucking head giving fudge packing idiot to the "stars"...lol
but how do you really feel........
Bullish ;)
june euro futures target = 1.4237. let's see what happens.
oh, and saying, a week into the japan crisis, that not much more is going to happen in markets this year: that's a joke.
(11pm, same day)
stopped out! good thing it was only on the simulator.
target: 1.4237 (june futures)
This is a mixture of name dropping and investment detritus tossed off like used condoms.
...all that aside Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the show?
So, did you like the article?
er, like a dose of the first 4 letters of your nom be plume (no offense)
Aye, used condoms full of his salty wad inside and on the outside the DNA from the ground off bits of wart and shit from blankfein's arsehole.
:o
Buy Dollar/Yen at 83.20. What a great call that was a few weeks back.
I'm rich!!!!! I'm rich!!!!! Oh, wait a minute.
sorry but this article sucks completely more like cnbc cramer level
Gold and silver are topping? Hmmm.......
welcome to this week's edition of "I attempt to be subtly arrogant while plugging my butt-buddy's advisory service."
I hope MHFT uses plenty of lubricant when talking to Charles. I thought it sounded like he was moaning when he gave those ticker symbols.
MHFT flys Douche Bag Air.
I dunno why this guy gets airspace ... with old chuck nincumpoop as well. Dartboard anyone?
Are these the same 'stars' who invested with Bernie Madoff per chance??
I nominate this for moronic statement of the week.
"Many asset classes are about to settle down into boring, predictable trading ranges."
Please show me these "predictable" ranges so I can retire by the end of the year.
Does anyone take this moron seriously?
Seems every post this guy makes ends with "my airplane" or "chalet in the swiss alps"
No one gives a fuck.
"my airplane IN my swiss chalet" suits the zeitgeist better...
+3
LOL
How about "my swiss chalet IN my airplane"?
I need a(nother) green beer.
Nenner announced a short in crude oil, just before it jumped from $ 87 to $ 105 in 2 wweks time. If you are shorting crude while the middle east is burning, there is something seriously wrong with your investing method.
"Guys, I have an airplane. I know what I'm talking about."
I'm not an experienced trader and even I can tell this guy is kookoo for cocoa puffs - as in your investment goes puff and disappears!
To say that the biggest moves of 2011 are done is an idiotic statement.
Mayday, mayday the Captain is a suicidal kamikaze!
I like how whenever Nenner is pinned down to an actual prediction, he is wrong. But on something ambiguos like "someday do this", he counts that as a win. Nenner has been right only one time that I know of.
What does technical analysis have to do with the price of tea in China? Or in other words, an unforcasted natural disaster with serious ramifications?
"the best respnse would be to post zero comments on his next effort"
or as Sandy said to Spongebob, "you're a funnny little dood."
Technical Analyst to the Stars? Is this show on right after Dancing with the Stars?
Why .oh why does he write ?
just to annoy ?
the best respnse would be to post zero comments on his next effort
Damn I love the moronic call that all the big moves for 2011 were done LOL - since that statement was last weekend I found it hilarious!
Sheesh, MHFT! Yesterday Japan was on its knees and today its business as usual in your investment world. I understand you have to develop fresh angles but, as is so often the case in recent times, we resolve nothing but simply pretend that what was is over and go on to the next thing. Unfortunately, we can't do that here.
I read the MHFT's commentary on commodities as a leading indicator,
and use his commentary on anything Japaese as a contrarian indicator.
"I promised to take him wave hopping in my plane on his visit to the West coast. He agreed, as long as I promised not to do it upside down."
Why not run it into a ditch instead?
time to get some new technical analysis. this guy's recent calls have been atrocious...even in the trending markets