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The Cause of the Oil Spill: Peak Oil
Sarah Palin and many others
claim that the BP Gulf oil disaster happened because environmentalists
have prevented drilling in shallower waters and safer locations.
In other words, they claim that oil producers were forced into deeper, more dangerous conditions because of environmentalists.
Are they right?
BP was clearly criminally negligent, and government regulators were wholly captured by the oil industry.
But we have to take a step back to see the bigger picture.
As McClatchy pointed out last month:
Conventional
U.S. oil production has been in decline since the 1970s, and near-shore
production along the Gulf Coast peaked in 1997.***
Globally,
one in every 10 barrels of oil produced in 2030 will come from
ultra-deepwater operations, [Leta Smith, director of oil supply
research for Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a leading oil
analyst] said, adding that roughly 70 percent of the deep water in the
Gulf of Mexico remains unexplored.
In 1990, the deep waters of
the Gulf of Mexico yielded about 20,000 barrels per day of crude oil.
By 2009, that number had grown to 1 million, according to CERA.
Nine
projects that are coming onstream will add at least 200,000 barrels per
day this year, said CERA researchers, who expect deepwater production
to account for 17 percent of U.S. liquids production this year, which
includes oil and natural gas.
Today there are at least 42 active
deepwater projects for exploration or production in the U.S. Gulf of
Mexico or international gulf waters, and at least another five projects
in the works. Seventeen of those are ultra-deepwater.
***
Outside
the Gulf Coast region, Brazil is the world's most promising
ultra-deepwater producer, with new discoveries in the past five years
in the so-called Santos basin that experts think will make the South
American giant a powerhouse in the oil business. Deep waters off the
African nations of Nigeria and Angola also hold promise.
Nigeria has next to no environmental controls. So the fact that deepwater drilling is being explored off the coast of Nigeria speaks volumes.
As the Post Carbon Institute notes:
With
Federal regulators approving a new Gulf of Mexico oil well and the
Canadian government continuing to support deepwater drilling off its
own coasts, it looks like business as usual for the oil industry ....***
Anyone wanting to understand the issue should turn to an 87-page Minerals Management Service document, Deepwater Gulf of Mexico 2009: Interim Report of 2008 Highlights [which] states:
In
February 1997, there were 17 producing deepwater projects, up from only
6 at the end of 1992. Since then, industry has been rapidly advancing
into deep water, and many of the anticipated fields have begun
production. At the end of 2008, there were 141 producing projects in
the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.If 141 producing
deepwater projects in that area seems larger than expected, note that
there are many more leases on oilfields in the area – 7,310 active
leases in 2008 - and that the trend is towards ever deeper water. The
document continues:Over the last 15 or so years,
leasing, drilling, and production moved steadily into deeper waters.
There are approximately 7,310 active leases in the U.S. GOM, 58 percent
of which are in deep water. (Note that lease statuses may change daily,
so the current number of active leases is an approximation.) Contrast
this to approximately 5,600 active GOM leases in 1992, only 27 percent
of which were in deep water. There was a maximum of 31 rigs drilling in
deep water in 2008, compared with only 3 rigs in 1992. Likewise,
deepwater oil production rose about 786 percent and deepwater gas
production increased about 1,067 percent from 1992 to 2007. Production
from seven deepwater fields began in 2008, including Thunder Horse, the
largest daily producer in the GOM.
So why is drilling happening in such deep waters off the coasts of the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Angola, Nigeria and other countries?
In two words: peak oil.
As the head geologist of one of the world's largest oil companies - the guy whose job it is to find new oil - told me a year ago:
Yes, it is true [that we have peak oil]. We are no longer on the ascending part of the curve.
In other words, the rate of petroleum production (and also the rate of
energy return for a given amount of investment) is no longer on the
rising, left-hand side of the bell-shaped curve:
And the world's leading oil experts say that peak oil is real.
Peak
oil doesn't mean that the oil flow will suddenly stop. What it does
mean is that more and more extreme methods will be used to find and
extract oil, such as deepwater drilling or crushing literally tons of sand to squeeze out some petroleum.
Energy and oil expert Byron King explains in a new interview:
[Interviewer]
We know about peak oil already. But… is it really THAT bad that we’re
having to search for oil buried beneath 12,000 feet of water? And after
the water, another 10,000 feet of dense rock? That’s a lot of risk to
take. Seems to be proof for the end of cheap oil theory, right?
[Byron
King] Exactly. The days of drilling a hole beneath the soil in Texas,
inserting a pipe and watching oil gush out are gone. We’re never going
back to those days.
It gets into what we’re dealing with here in
the search for deep sea oil… The energy industry has to go deeper and
deeper to make things work. Risking more and more capital – and
unfortunately, lives – along the way.
Look at what we’ve seen in
the last 20 years or so, since 1990, when the oil industry really
started to go deep. There was something like an “arms race” to develop
better and better deepwater technology, to go for the next levels down.
We’ve seen this race to deeper and deeper water. And it’s all because
the so called “cheap oil” is gone.
It used to be that drilling
at 1,000 feet water depth was the edge of technology! Youknow, back
then in the early 1990s it was 1,500 feet, then it was 2,500 feet, then
it was 5,000 feet…7,500, 10,000. Now they’re drilling at 12,000 feet of
water.
***
Offshore development is the future of oil. The oil
industry wouldn’t be taking these risks if cheap oil was still with us.
We’re just starting to scratch the surface of this deep-sea stuff. The
cheap stuff’s gone. Gotta go offshore…
The cheap stuff - and the less dangerous to get stuff - is gone.
Because
oil companies will go to more extreme measures and operate in more
dangerous conditions to extract oil, there will be more accidents. As
the Guardian reports:
One
industry insider, who asked not to be named, said: "Major spills are
likely to increase in the coming years as the industry strives to
extract oil from increasingly remote and difficult terrains. Future
supplies will be offshore, deeper and harder to work. When things go
wrong, it will be harder to respond."
And because it will
be so expensive to produce, companies will try to cut corners - just as
BP did with the Deepwater Horizon drilling operation.
Therefore,
there will be more catastrophic accidents, which are much harder to
clean up than a little oil gusher in the nostalgic oil fields of Texas.
Unless we switch to smarter forms of energy, the Gulf oil spill will end up simply being one of many catastrophes.
Note: While there are many promising prospects
for alternative energy, it is important to be honest. Many types of
alternative energy currently either use more energy than they produce,
require substantial amounts of fossil fuels or toxic chemicals to
produce, or only appear economical because of massive, hidden subsidies
(I'm all for subsidies, as long as they are out in the open). Of
course, oil is massively subsidized as well.
- advertisements -
And then there is the DEEP HOT BIOSPHERE a book by Thomas Gold
http://www.amazon.com/Deep-Hot-Biosphere-Fossil-Fuels/dp/0387985468
Get over peak oil --- Titan a moon of Saturn has oceans of natural gas
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=2479&dat=20070315&id=21Y1AAAAIBAJ&sjid=eiUMAAAAIBAJ&pg=3276,12508896
Carbon is just a very plentiful product in our Solar system
How many dead dinosaurs did it take to create the Gulf Oil Spill
Answer --- none
Are you stupid?
can we run a pipeline to Titan?
Do you even understand that when it costs you one BOE to extract one BOE that there is no point in further extraction?
Notions like recoverability and EROI totally fly over your head, don't they?
I'm totally sick of cornucopian idiots who cannot do basic fucking math.
"How many dead dinosaurs did it take to create the Gulf Oil Spill
Answer --- none"
You are correct, the VAST majority of the oil created in the Gulf Oil Spill, was not dinosaurs, but plankton which existed in the shallow seas that covered the eastern US, millions of years ago.
You have it figured out. Oil is not subsidized. Oil and gas taxes keep the nutters in power. The UK would collapse if they allowed the people to enjoy $2.00 a gallon gasoline that the producers sell it for, at a profit that is further taxed.
XOM pays more taxes than they earn in profits. IIRC, the XOM taxes paid to the US govt. are greater that the total income taxes of the bottom 30% of taxpayers. If they are writing a check to the govt., it is not subsidized.
The nonsense wind, solar, and ethanol groups get checks written OUT to them. The only way they exist is through subsidies and they will call for higher taxes on XOM to increase XOM's costs while sucking it all back for themselves. Is everyone flying on the private plane to the Tax and Trade conference a math flunk out?
Gosh I only talk about this like every other post lol
GW, I like the pretty charts and you get to post at the top of ZH.
The C&C peak is the most important one to look at, as all-liquids can be fudged by translating one form (NG) into another. C&C hit peak in 2005 and has shown NO signs of making a run at a new production high.
Nonconventional and deepwater is an express train to EROI unity.
What is "C&C"?
Crude & Condensates.
Command & Conquer
Bollocks
Sandra Bollocks?
hey GW, welcome back. I knew you could not have stayed away for too long.
Did you consider my ad request for your site? I e-mailed you but on that very day you wrote that you were signing off.
Addict, stand up and say, My name is GW and.....
Anyways, I believe in the Peak oil scenario. What you have presented is the Production or Supply side perspective.
I think the true impact will be felt from the demand side (sliding demand and the combined in-efficiency of how we use what we do extract). The combination of the two is what will bring us to the full-impact of the Peak Oil scenario.
Please check out my Oilternative Engineering solutions site
www.squareandc.net
And pass the word around.
And welcome back again. Sane voices needed.
I hope this stays front and center on the contributors list.
Such a hush hush topic.
Should be numero uno, and at the forefront of every single person's mind.
US oil production peaked in 1970 flat.
Agree completely.There is no issue as serious as peak oil, since oil is literally the life blood of the modern economies.
Not sure if anyone saw this already, or I missed it being posted before, but Skip the first 49 minutes and listen from that point for just a few minutes.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/293762-1
That is the President of the United States acknowledging "Peak Oil"... just not in those words.
2 points:
1. You state: "BP was clearly criminally negligent, and government regulators were wholly captured by the oil industry."
nice comment, but I did not realize you were on the rig monitoring the drilling from Day 1 and therefore are the true authority on exactly what occurred.
2. You may want to scream peak oil from the roof tops and point to deep water drilling as proof positive, but have you even considered that 80% of the world is actually covered by oceans???
"have you even considered that 80% of the world is actually covered by oceans???"
Wow, 80% you say.
Oil deposits only exist at certain depths, a zone called the "hydrocarbon kitchen", where ancient deposits of organic plant and animal biomass have accumulated, been covered by sediment and "cooked" at the right temp and pressure in the kitchen. Most deep water ocean deposits occur at the mouth of river deltas such as the Mississippi delta in the gulf, also in Brazil, Africa, etc., etc.
Oil is destroyed once it is pushed past the "kitchen" window, in short, we truly are tapping the last reservoirs on the planet...and no, the oceans do not contain oil, it's only along existing and ancient river deltas.
Seconded and thirded.
It is the wake up call of our times.