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CBO on Migrant Workers
I came across this slide from the Census Bureau.
When you do the calculations on births/deaths/migrant workers you get the following results:
Annual births: 4.5mm
Annual deaths:2.9mm
Net change: 1.6mm
Net new migrant workers 790,000
From this one gets the total increase in population at ~2.6mm. Fully one-third of that growth comes from foreign immigrant workers.
I was surprised to see how big the migrant worker side of the equation
was. That comes to 66,000 a month. If you follow the monthly Non-Farms
Payroll report you know that there have been many months that we don’t
create that many net new jobs.
Our friends at the Congressional Budget Office just happened to have issued a report on this subject on Friday. Catchy title:
A slide that I thought was interesting shows just how much money is leaving the country from those foreign migrant workers:
The total came to $66 billion in 2009. That is a very big number. Of the
$31b that left the shores to go south of the border $20b ended up in
Mexico. Asia was the beneficiary of $17b of inward money flows. Of that,
$3.2b went to China. China manages to suck the blood out of the USA
every which way. We send them our money for interest on our debt. We
send them money for everything we buy from them. And those who come to
work here send back a few billion more.
Allow me to “play” with these numbers a bit. I believe that the vast
majority of the money going to Latin America (31b) is from undocumented
workers. The same is true for the $5b going to Africa. I will assume a
conservative estimate that only 50% of the $17b going to Asia is from
illegal workers (9b). I will be generous and exclude all of the money
(total 15b) going to Canada, Europe and the Middle East (there are many
undocumented workers in this set). My conservative estimate is that
~$45b a year is leaving the country from undocumented workers.
A question is, “How much of an illegal workers pay is being sent back home?” My answer to that is: “Somewhere between 0 and 50%".
Call it 25%. This means that a worker sends home one week of wages for
every month that they are here. I actually think the percent number is
lower. It is hard to get by in America with just three weeks of wages a
month. The savings rate for Americans is less than 5%.
If you accept my (conservative) one week in four argument then you can
conclude that the total wages being paid to these workers is ~$180b a
year (4 x 45b). That is a very substantial amount of money.
The average legal worker pays 7% in Social Security and other FICA
taxes. The average Federal tax rate is about 20% and the average state
income tax is another 5%. It comes to about 33 cents on the dollar.
Put that together and you get lost tax revenue of ~$60b (180*.33). I
think this is a pretty good estimate given that I excluded the $15b
going to Europe/Canada and 50% of Asia. But I will ‘haircut’ this
estimate down to $50b a year. That still is a hell of lot of money.
-A ½ Trillion over the next decade would be very welcome.
-$50b a year would solve all of the state’s problems if the money were committed to them over a long period of time.
-$50b a year would be a hell of a down payment on the energy infrastructure build out that we so desperately need.
-$50b a year would turn Social Security into a perpetual “pay as you go
system”. We could forget about any funding shorts falls forever.
-$50b a year would go a very long way to bring our educational system back up to par.
What would you do with an extra $50b a year? Let’s face it, we need this money and it would be very helpful if we had it.
The bottom line is that America needs immigrant workers. We also need
the tax dollars that come from the wages that are paid. We don’t need to
have all this money just leak out of they system while the social costs
of illegal workers stay in country.
This is America’s Black Economy. It stares us in the face every
day. For the life of me I can’t figure why we don’t confront the
problem. But notice that neither the Republican nor the Democrats have
even raised it as an issue for 2011. They are too busy fighting over
budget cuts, yet there is a big bucket of money right at their feet.
We don’t need to solve the broad immigration problem today. That is a
very complex/emotive task. We should start the process by making sure
that illegal workers pay their taxes. Just like the natural American
workers do.
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Here is the truth. At the end of the day it is not being dealt with because the businesses that employ the illegal workers don't want to pay the taxes. It comes out of their pockets and they pay the politicians in their pockets to make sure it doesn't happen.
Their costs are lower because they employ migrant workers. They don't have to pay SS Payroll taxes, they don't have to pay workers comp taxes, they don't have to pay unemployment taxes.
It's the businesses that don't want to raise their compensation of these employees. That's what ultimately would happen if the government started getting their rightly deserved share.
That's why it doesn't happen .........
Many Californian's would agree.
I'm sure that ZH has covered this in the past, but migrant (Mexican) inflows are a balancing (birthrate) force against Muslim concentration in this country. I have linked a story by the Economist although there is more complete (and better) coverage of the facts out there.
This isn't a beat down commentary on Mexican emigration, or Muslim influence in this country. However, it is a fascinating viewpoint if you are concerned about potential Islamic domination. The Mexicans are saving our collective Carnitas in this regard.
http://www.economist.com/node/18008022
Good link VI,
For those of you not inclined to read the left-of-center intellectual Brits at The Economist here's an excerpt:
The report assumes Britain has 2.9m Muslims now (far higher than the usual estimates, which suggest 2.4m at most), rising to 5.6m by 2030. As poor migrants start families in Spain and Italy, numbers there will rocket; in France and Germany, where some Muslims are middle-class, rises will be more modest—though from a higher base. Russia’s Muslims will increase to 14.4% or 18.6m, up from 11.7% now (partly because non-Muslims are declining). The report takes a cautious baseline of 2.6m American Muslims in 2010, but predicts the number will surge by 2030 to 6.2m, or 1.7% of the population—about the same size as Jews or Episcopalians. In Canada the Muslim share will surge from 2.8% to 6.6%.
Looking at the graph of 2030 by-country estimate the Swedes would be advised to go into immediate whack-a-mole mode.
You're kidding right? Potential islamic domination? Did you even read the article you linked?
Muslim population estimated to be under 2% by 2030. Wow, what a takeover. By 2030, Hispanics will 30-40% at least of the US population. Balancing force, lulz.
That is what I answered "best"
No longer propaganda. But fantasy. Out of 2pc, people make a takeover that needs to balance by 30 pc.
The US citizen nature is eternal.
dupe.
"You're kidding right? Potential islamic domination? Did you even read the article you linked?"
I did. Hence the disclaimer - "I have linked a story by the Economist although there is more complete (and better) coverage of the facts out there."
My original thoughts came from this piece, although there is more out there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-3X5hIFXYU
Tell me what you think? I know, Christian influence.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mINChFxRXQs
duly noted, thanks.
Fuck the Muslims.
It's important to first understand the fundamentals of Islam through The History of Mecca (Makkah)
For discussion of this page please join us in the forum by clicking here.
The following links to Islamic sites connect the Quran (Koran Kuran) and it's Messenger, to the number 666. Here's a link - and another. Or Search -submission quran 666. "GOD made His Messenger a witness with the letter Qaf and the number 666."
Revelation 13:18 Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number [is] Six hundred threescore [and] six.
"Allah" = 666
On the Zola Levitt program, Walid Shoebat, a former PLO terrorist now Christian evangelist, said that when he saw the Greek symbol that is translated in the Bible as 666, he immediately read it as the Arabic character “Bismillah” (some spell Bismilla) which means "in the name of Allah." (Though it looks more like the character for "Allah").
Here's a seven minute video of Walid Shoebat on 666 at a different venue:
Oh, you're that kind of nutjob.
No, I just read everything.
So kind of a literary septic tank, then?
Touche' ROTFLMAO
Thanks
Well if you don't believe in Heaven & Hell so be it .... Its kind of funny how things are playing out. Have you ever been to Jerusalem ? Would you have the balls to go check it out like Spalding, not on some church group trip, going alone ? The planes can't even go to the airport, you walk about two blocks off the runway. Soldiers everywhere .... Jerusalem is at the top of this mountain and as your driving up the highway huge cement blocks scattered about from wars past on the hillside.
It was really a cool place to visit even if your not a believer. Just so you know my original post was pulled because it was the first thing I pulled off the net that speaks about the correlation, but its funny how death and killing is embraced by the muslims. The direct opposite of Jesus. Everything is the opposite.
The grapes the size of golf balls at the local market ( arab quarters ) and the rest of the fruit was twice the size and taste. It's funny how things are playing out in the middle east just like a the Bible predicted over 2000 years ago. The moral mess we live in look around the USA is a moral graveyard. 14 year old girls walking dressing like whores ect ........
Good luck my friend.
Jesus embraced killing and death just as the Muslims did after him. It is all about killing the non abrahamic believers for Jesus. You should read the Bible (NT, not OT) before vomiting your diarrhea.
Interesting, 666 , Nostradamus predicted the antichrist to lead the west into flames and be in a war from 2001 to 2027.
Islam fits that bill and many others.
When they begin to take over europe there will be civil war or life will be fucked up there.
Morality does not require religion and the latter could use a heaping dose of the former.
absolutely right
and don't worry about the mentally challenged redneck junk merchants on here.
They were away buying guns and tins of beans when the brains were being allocated.
read on below...
village genius
Best.
um...well...yes...that thought has occurred to me but it is kind of like the "my left big toe is gangrenous so it kind of balances things out that my right big toe is too."
If we actually held legal immigration to a minimum and stopped illegal immigration people would have more income, more real jobs, a reason to think about having more children, and a reason to maintain allegiance to the nation.
You can't sell your soul for the sake of a quick fix and hope it ends well. Our governemnt and businesses and households have become junkies - addicted to the quick fix - and deploys euphamisms, equivoactions, and rationalizations to keep the dream alive no matter how much of a nightmare it is.
Just go to your local grocery store or wherever the Western Union is and watch the illegals come in with wads of cash (untaxed of course) to wire back to their home country.
They also fill the emergency rooms, the food banks, the public shools and after school programs.
Many states offer in-state tuition to illegal immgrants.
It isn't about race or politics - we have lost our f'ing minds.
And where do those 'wads' come from?
Getting paid in cash by any business or individual.
Think about it; no taxes, no Workmen's Comp., no labor laws, no lawsuits, etc.
Let's say you are "paying" $8.50 an hour.
Legal citizen = actually paying $12.50 an hour to do it above board.
Illegal = $7.50 an hour or less to pay them in cash; no paperwork, no accounting, no AAEO, no lawsuits for an injury or otherwise.
You forgot how deplorable the average legal worker is. Illegals show up for work and work. Legals play nothing but games and then expect a raise.
And when was the last time you saw one of these 'individuals' riding a bus to Tijuana? Paying a fine? Anything besides being lauded as a friend of the community who 'creates jobs'?
Most posters appear to have never interfaced with an actual undocumented person that sends monthly money back 'home' - not only does it usually cost a bundle of bucks - generally borrowed from relatives - to pay the mule Northbound, but the same sucky system applies going South. No cheap bus ticket without papers.
BTW, judging from the junks for most every S777 post, appears someone just plain doesn't like his comments non-withstanding that some are pretty erudite.
Yes, those lovely illegal immigrants.
Slave labor that reduces labor costs for businesses, increases church membership and donations (Catholic, LDS, etc.), votes, untrackable cash, apple/lettuce pickers to make the farmers $$$$, nice little mules...
...we love mules...especially when we get them south of the border AND going through the "system", including the meat-grinder of the military where they are indoctrinated into the holy trinity of crony capitalism-church-and the cult of personality.
ALL HAIL CAESAR
You prefer your slave labor overseas?
With risk. He/she gets hurt or hurts someone else, trouble.
Keep your eye on the ball, there gang. I gotta say, yeah, there's a problem. Is it the problem Bruce says? Not really, or at least not as much as he says. Is it the main problem or even close? No way. First of all, putting the aside the idea of who is fucking me and our country over more, greedy bankers we bailed out to the tune of trillions, the politicians who every day put party or the elite or their own reelection before country, or some Mexican day laborer loitering outside Home Depot, the taxes paid by illegal workers is fairly large. In fact, Social Security would arguably be bankrupt without the taxes paid by illegals. So I guess, while there is a problem, even a big problem, is it anywhere near the top of my triage list? Not really. I am always amazed how in any crisis, the victims of public outrage are rarely the ones who truly deserve it. Let's see: AIG, Fannie, Freddie and their politican lackeys or some Guatamalan who is sending half his shitty paycheck home to his shitty village. Ben Bernanke destroying the markets or a third grade teacher in Wisconsin working on a fat pension. I know who I think merits my attention first. Whenever I hear someone bitching about the Mexicans, I mentally substitute the word "Irish" for "mexican." Same shit. Different century.
Good post--well thought out. Milestones
This comment I saw over on Steve Keen's Debtwatch cuts to the chase and exposes the real problem which those who bitch about Social Security and Medicare would rather not confront: "For those honest enough to admit it, the primary cause of budget deficits in the future is the insanely inefficient private health care system of the US, followed by military spending. If the US implemented a public health care system which every advanced Western country has, and reduced military spending, then it would produce enormous budget surpluses into the short and long-term future. But because these two items benefit the rich in the US, they are thus untouchable, called “politically impossible” if someone suggests that they should be cut. As such, this means turning to the popular social security programs that keep many US citizens out of poverty. As SS, Medicare and Medicaid is of no use to the rich, they are attempting to eliminate it. Dean Baker’s CEPR has produced a “Health Care Budget Deficit Calculator” which shows how bad the US health care system is next to every other major countries’. http://www.cepr.net/calculators/hc/hc-calculator.html Also, the US is in the middle of its worst crises since the Great Depression of the 1930s. As the private sector is currently deleveraging, there is a need for the government to spend. Those who are throwing tantrums over the government producing deficits in a time of need are the same who did not notice the housing bubble and GFC, which is why the government is having to run deficits in the first place. To my knowledge, there is no other rich Western country that is attempting to eliminate its best poverty reduction programs as fervently as the US is doing – in the richest country in world history, that has a health care system with more than double the costs of our Australian system, spends over $1 trillion on the military a year, and recently bailed out the financial and banking sectors to the tune of $US23.7 trillion! The supposed budget crises is an ideological construct; taking the rich of welfare would result in massive surpluses now and into the future. Trashing the welfare programs for the poor is really quite miserable, given the the poor bear no responsibility for the crisis created by the rich."
LOL and how much of the "inefficiency" is actually due to illegal immigrants? Medicare and medicaid are fucked too
I have to laugh at how people think that health care is some yerkish button on a cash register. "I'll take a number one with a blood test". You people are fools.
This is nothing but liberal unicorn shit sprinkled with skittles.
Get real.
thanks, that's a great comment
Moneymutt: haven't seen you in a while.... good to see you 'round
Whenever I hear someone bitching about the Mexicans, I mentally substitute the word "Irish" for "mexican." Same shit. Different century.
WRONG, the Irish, and anyone else were invited then. This is the part that galls my ass,what part of ILLEGAL do some people not get?. Immigant, does not mean Illegal(all the time), but that's what I was discussing. The MSM always refers to Illegals as Immigrants, they are not the same..... I am all for limited Immigation, legal Immigation. I am not for Immigration , legal or otherwise, if you come here and try and live the WAY you did back home, and have your own nation state, at our expense.(Islam). Look at France, and the U.K. they are screwed.The Native Americans didn't "invite" any of them. The Irish weren't "invited" to America and the Gringos weren't "invited" to California in the 1840s either. The Americans were "invited", sort of, to Texas in the 1820s by Mexico without their slaves. They illegally brought the slaves anyway and proceeded to cause trouble for Mexico. Mexico regretted that one.
You need to enroll in an American history class that Rush doesn't teach.
How? The Indians did not have the technology to cross the seas... So how did they move to Europe to invite Europeans?
That is not even propaganda. That is fantasy. Fantasy world.
+1 Some people think that only Hispanic=illegal.
Here in ol' New England, there have always been illegals, from Ireland, Portugal, and Canada.
It is not the legal definition, but the numbers. The LA Times called it the largest mass migration of a people in the history of the world.
Oh come on. By the second generation they are fully clued into the whole welfare thing and cost even more.
Project much?
Never took a dime. And the Projects are all falling down.
You said you served in the military (Navy, IIRC), yes?
It was a minimum wage job, when all was said and done. Plus I buffed enough floors you got your money's worth.