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CBO on Migrant Workers
I came across this slide from the Census Bureau.
When you do the calculations on births/deaths/migrant workers you get the following results:
Annual births: 4.5mm
Annual deaths:2.9mm
Net change: 1.6mm
Net new migrant workers 790,000
From this one gets the total increase in population at ~2.6mm. Fully one-third of that growth comes from foreign immigrant workers.
I was surprised to see how big the migrant worker side of the equation
was. That comes to 66,000 a month. If you follow the monthly Non-Farms
Payroll report you know that there have been many months that we don’t
create that many net new jobs.
Our friends at the Congressional Budget Office just happened to have issued a report on this subject on Friday. Catchy title:
A slide that I thought was interesting shows just how much money is leaving the country from those foreign migrant workers:
The total came to $66 billion in 2009. That is a very big number. Of the
$31b that left the shores to go south of the border $20b ended up in
Mexico. Asia was the beneficiary of $17b of inward money flows. Of that,
$3.2b went to China. China manages to suck the blood out of the USA
every which way. We send them our money for interest on our debt. We
send them money for everything we buy from them. And those who come to
work here send back a few billion more.
Allow me to “play” with these numbers a bit. I believe that the vast
majority of the money going to Latin America (31b) is from undocumented
workers. The same is true for the $5b going to Africa. I will assume a
conservative estimate that only 50% of the $17b going to Asia is from
illegal workers (9b). I will be generous and exclude all of the money
(total 15b) going to Canada, Europe and the Middle East (there are many
undocumented workers in this set). My conservative estimate is that
~$45b a year is leaving the country from undocumented workers.
A question is, “How much of an illegal workers pay is being sent back home?” My answer to that is: “Somewhere between 0 and 50%".
Call it 25%. This means that a worker sends home one week of wages for
every month that they are here. I actually think the percent number is
lower. It is hard to get by in America with just three weeks of wages a
month. The savings rate for Americans is less than 5%.
If you accept my (conservative) one week in four argument then you can
conclude that the total wages being paid to these workers is ~$180b a
year (4 x 45b). That is a very substantial amount of money.
The average legal worker pays 7% in Social Security and other FICA
taxes. The average Federal tax rate is about 20% and the average state
income tax is another 5%. It comes to about 33 cents on the dollar.
Put that together and you get lost tax revenue of ~$60b (180*.33). I
think this is a pretty good estimate given that I excluded the $15b
going to Europe/Canada and 50% of Asia. But I will ‘haircut’ this
estimate down to $50b a year. That still is a hell of lot of money.
-A ½ Trillion over the next decade would be very welcome.
-$50b a year would solve all of the state’s problems if the money were committed to them over a long period of time.
-$50b a year would be a hell of a down payment on the energy infrastructure build out that we so desperately need.
-$50b a year would turn Social Security into a perpetual “pay as you go
system”. We could forget about any funding shorts falls forever.
-$50b a year would go a very long way to bring our educational system back up to par.
What would you do with an extra $50b a year? Let’s face it, we need this money and it would be very helpful if we had it.
The bottom line is that America needs immigrant workers. We also need
the tax dollars that come from the wages that are paid. We don’t need to
have all this money just leak out of they system while the social costs
of illegal workers stay in country.
This is America’s Black Economy. It stares us in the face every
day. For the life of me I can’t figure why we don’t confront the
problem. But notice that neither the Republican nor the Democrats have
even raised it as an issue for 2011. They are too busy fighting over
budget cuts, yet there is a big bucket of money right at their feet.
We don’t need to solve the broad immigration problem today. That is a
very complex/emotive task. We should start the process by making sure
that illegal workers pay their taxes. Just like the natural American
workers do.
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QQQ,
And all these illegals have jobs that Americans won't do...my arse.Ask now and see what answer you get.
I have seen 10-12, living in a deserted one room apt.No children/women.
They pay weekly to survive there, and a place to hide out,no one else could stand the squalor.
Contractors lose their work staff to a degree that they almost shut down from end of Nov - January, because they high tail it home to visit families.
Stop at any 7-11, Stop n Go, in the a.m, or noon, you will be the only cauc in the place.They use the Microwaves for their lunches, and buy only a drink, or ice for coolers.
True that. I had crews of them doing landscaping back in the 80's.
They would get $10 a month conscripted into the Army back home, but $6 an hour in the U.S.
Talk about a reason to come to the U.S. and economy of scale...
Bernanke is going to get that back on the equivalent of $10 a month real soon.
Bernanke is Krasting in disguise!!
Conservative estimate? It sets that all from South America, Africa and half Asia are undocumented workers.
The US tracks its citizens all around the world to get them to pay the tax on revenue and stuff. Where is the difference if not one is a volunteer transaction, the other is a tax...
I actually think the percent number is lower. It is hard to get by in America with just three weeks of wages a month. The savings rate for Americans is less than 5%.
Bruce, I disagree living in Texas as I do, when you see 6-8 MEN living in a single home,with 4-6 vehicles parked in front, the cost of living is a lot lower than it is on a normal family of one.
This is how the Koreans, and Pakis get businesses started, they pool their funds until one can go into business, and so on,and so on.
Like a Mother bird, one baby at a time out of the nest.
They are very smart for doing this. Americans have nice big houses but really only use the kitchen, living room & the bedroom. A total waste of money on taxes, energy ect.
I wonder how many unemployed americans are sitting back waiting for $30,000 dollar jobs because the cost of living / dreamland they live in. Many foreigners pooling resources will take that same job for $15,000 and never think twice. They have a long term plan and good for them or they do this just to survive. The USA is a fantastic place to live even for the poor. Travel, doctors, outdoor activities with ones family, maybe more Americans should be grateful for being here and start taking the same mindset.
But most feel they " must " keep up with the Joneses and worry about ones image.
+++++
I can't fault someone who is willing to work hard for being the victim of the labor supply equivalent of Gresham's Law.
"This is America’s Black Economy. It stares us in the face every day."
it stares us in the face every day because it's by design....
Globalization=the New Feudalism
Trouble is, when your economy hits 50% Black market (like Mexico's) really BAD things start to happen....
for oligarchs and peasants alike
If this is the new feudalism then we should all strive to be lords of the manor. Got land?
Bananamerican
When your black market GDP hits 40% (like Mexico and Italy) it's a good sign not a bad one. Black markets are almost pure cash and illegitimate, how fantastic is that! Why? Because it has zero taxes, has zero regulatory expenses and because it has zero banking control (ie. no mountains of debt).
Namely the black market is the free market, the legal markets are all the ones that are fuked by Govt and the bwankers. The black market is also an endorsement for freedom and a sign for how shite the Govt is at dealing with peoples reality (clearly there's so much demand between consumer and producer that the Govt is socially dysfunctional).
If I have one tip for peoples survival in the coming economic storm it's to get out of all that is fuked and learn to trade in the black market because it's the only (free) market that will continue to hold up and indeed prosper in the coming meltdown.
In the Soviet Union, the black market was the place to buy a chicken if you wanted meat to eat.
Feralserf: La Raza left a message: your check is ready to pickup....get moving there are other sites to propagandize and more checks to be had.
Yup craigslist and ebay are great - texasguntrader is the best
Most illegal workers have either fake or real social security numbers. You can get a tax id or SS number as an alien worker. Proof of being legally allowed to work wasnt required. Perhaps now the SS office has recently asked for proof, but many foreign registered companies have SS numbers or Tax ID's as they are called for businesses. I interact a lot with illegal immigrants and everyone I know has a SS or tax ID or SS number of some sort, fake or real. They are all trying to prove how long they have been in the country because they all expect amnesty eventually.
Is it easier to chase 12M illegals....or the hundreds of thousands profiting on their backs?
It's far easier to punish the 535 in CONgress for letting them in in the first place. Punishing businesses is BS since we already paid the federal govt taxes to enforce the borders and they have shirked their responsibility.
It's like a bar hiring a cop to card people at the door and then that very same cop writing a ticket to the bar at the end of the night for serving minors.
idiotic logic again, is this really your argument; "business have a right to break the law, blame congress for not enforcing the law"
Not all businesses are hiring illegals.
What's good for the goose...
The businesses being 'punished' are the ones not taking advantage of the 'under the table' labor.
And how precisely would you enforce several thousand miles of border, genius?
How many border patrol agents are you willing to pay for?
How about a border wall? It won't completely stop it, but it would slow it down drastically. The agents can round up those who make it over the wall. Have cameras along the wall to monitor groups that congregate on the other side. It's really not that difficult. I'm sure you will counter that it's not friendly or neighborly blah blah. The tens of billions we've spent providing education, medical care, prison etc could have been better spent on the wall.
How about a wall like the one between France and Germany or the one between Italy and Austria?
You want to live in a prison with TSA guards checking to make sure you don't leave with some of the government's money.
If illegal invaders were shot it would reduce border crossings by a large % IMO
I don't know about you, but if my kid was going to starve, I'd risk it anyway.
If the chance of being ripped off by coyotes, tortured by the likes of Joe Arpaio, and being paid slave wages only to end up deported anyway isn't a deterrent, then why would gunfire make a difference?
Why not risk your life to overthrow your corrupt government instead of starving?
@ sun tzu ...because every thing is largly controlled by the US.gov . Only the Americans can overthrow America.
But they're to bussy with Mexicans and Muslims at the moment... But don't blame our heroic Americans for being a little distracted, "Mexicans speak spanish and Muslims speak... hmmm, what ever the hell they speak ;). It's not American, that's for sure!". (to paraphraze some I met).
That confuses our patriots.
But they'll get there... just takes a little longer.
snowball, get some mental health support.
your far left persona is becoming a cliche of the doped out hippie marxist, "I planted the weatherman bomb but I didn't kill the cop."
is that you bill? bill Ayers?
Employers who knowingly allow illegals to work for them should go to jail for twenty years without a chance of parole.
Illegals who are caught the first time are sent back to their home nation.
Second time illegals are shot on sight.
End of problem.
Social Security Administration is counting on these illegal immigrants to help fund SS (reference "Other Workers/Contributors"), which is why Obamatron and Eric (place)Holder do nothing to enforce the Border(s) -- it pays to look the other way!
These illegals are not paying into SS. They are mostly 1099 employees and payroll taxes are not withheld. They pay no income or payroll taxes.
Gold 3600:
There is a move to have SS pay to workers who used illegal or borrowed SSNs. They want there SS benefits, even though they worked illegally.
Another good argument for cutting SS off at the knees.
1/3 of social security recipients are disabled, think their knees are already "cut off"
One of the unintended consequences of cracking down on employers who weren't checking for green cards is that workers learned to get fake documents, and employers learned to put workers on the books. Workers would then negotiate a wage that would net out to an acceptable amount after taxes, since they can't file a 1040 and request a refund. This has been the case in the California construction industry at least, and I imagine it's probably true of other places and businesses as well.
So the question is, how much money do these undocumented workers leave on the table every year in the form of taxes withheld and never returned? To what extent does this money offset the social costs associated with illegal immigration?
excellent point!
"the Treaty of Gaudalupe-Hildago is being renegotiated one mujado at a time"
Yeah....It looks like the USA was merely renting the southwest.
i live in san diego, i would estimate 50% of illegal immigrants had gone back to mexico since 2006. i say this cuz my neighborhood once was 50 % mexican now it maybe 10%, im guessing. in 2006 there would be 50 to 100 mexicans hangin out on street corners or at the home depot everyday now there is none, many have gone back. the ones that r left r gaming the system, what disgusts me me is i was doing construction at a very large free clinic that had dental, optometry along with medical a year ago and i could not believe how many expensive cars these people were comin in. IT IS REALLY FUCKED UP WHEN MY FELLOW CONSTRUCTION WORKERS LIVE A LOWER QUALITY OF LIFE CUZ WE WORK. everyday we all would just shake our heads
How do you know they weren't stolen cars? Or borrowed? Or RepoMan looking for car?
Just because someone drives a car that is relatively expensive on the showroom floor does not mean they are flush with cash. You could be living a higher quality of life driving an old F-150 than someone else that driving a Cadillac.
Furthermore, the current Federal Reserve Board policy of substantially zero % interest on savings has caused many people that used to have taxable income to now be below the poverty level as far as income is concerned. That's often the deciding factor to receive some sort of low INCOME benefits. They may qualify even if they have a million $ in the bank at no interest.
Hey, Monkey in your face, “you’re enacting on the system, that discuses me!”. From your example I can only make up that they’re better organized. They have healthcare, and everything. The collective has even 66bn left over to send abroad.
So, let me get this straight, you were all shaking your head. And envy the construction worker next to you. Never looked up to your "land lord" and concluded that he is the one who sells you out? No, apparently not, instead of joining the new-bees you bashed them.
Way to go, face monkey: Kill ‘m, burn them, and kill ‘m again. And their kids too! That shall teach them!! Just because it has been done to you, you shall do it to them, squared! (…such a stereotypical reaction of an American, it’s not even funny…).
If it’s about the money you unwillingly let steal from you, and supposedly ended up in their coffers? Remember then that today’s money is an imaginary construction of thin air. Find the workers that construct that, then start shaking their heads.
You’ve been gamed, buddy.
=
They all went to Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Penn etc
You are seriiously overestimating the income taxes that migrant workers would pay if they were fully compliant with the system. Most of them would fall below the level at which they would actually pay taxes, and many would also qualify for things like the EITF, which means even more money would be thrown at them by the rest of us. Add to that they they and their families would be net consumers of local and federal aid, and the deal gets worse for the rest of us. Better to deal with the bigger problems their presence here presents us rather than fret about the money they are remitting back home.
Most of them are paid by 1099 and do not pay their self employment taxes
? they get aid anyway so you are wrong there - ER visits,education etc
"I actually think the percent number is lower. It is hard to get by in America with just three weeks of wages a month." WRONG- They often live 4-8 in a 2 - 3 room apartment in the cheapest neighborhoods.
While many migrant workers are relatively unskilled, they aren't all that way and many earn much more than you'd think because of they have a superior work ethic to a huge percentage of Americans. Especially if you can't underpay them or pay them under the table.
My (naturalized) bro-in-law from Mexico City makes six figures in upstate NY. He pays quite a bit. He had to submit literally inches-high paperwork for a period of years to do so.
I work with many people who are here on H1b visas...they pay SS through the nose and their spouses aren't allowed to work even though qualified for $80k/yr jobs. Simply idiotic.
Rather than fret over largely imaginary or localized problems, consider the implications of a world with no immigrant workers. -10% GDP for starters.
-10% GDP for starters. assuming the idiotic illogical; that all these jobs go unfilled = not
I'm over estimating? I thought I cut the numbers down quite a bit. I didn't include any of the numbers from the EU or ME. $18b excluded. Have you been to a NYC restaurant or cab of late? Lot's of undocumented from EU in this group.
I used one week a month but argued it had to be less. If it were only 20% it would mean revenues were 200b vs my 180. I cut my # with a 15% haircut for no particular reason.
If anything my number is low. Hard to prove. But one thing to look at is the $66b that left the country. That is a hard number from a reliable source. You tell me (us), of this money, how much of it has been taxed in the US? Give me a number.
Immigrant speaking. (SO. FL, hello neighbor ;) )
Bruce, if I may call you by your first name, you’re drawing some wrong conclusions here.
Perhaps the monies are leaving the US because it’s none of YOUR business! What you wanna do? Make regulations preventing people to do with their earnings what THEY seen right?
O-no, it’s about taxes. You pay them, and so should they… Since when did it become fashion in your head to encourage uncle O to force taxes on everyone and everything? Just asking…
Because their Illegal? Or legal, doesn’t matter, they’re aliens for sure. Once an alien, always an alien. Right?
You’re probably in favor to of that policy they now have: Block off a street, bring all man and woman and children out in the street. Separate them and put the “cockroaches” on transport.
Guess your long on gas.
You can call me whatever you like.
I pay taxes. Lots of them. I don't like it it and I wish that I did not have to pay them. I'm not in favor of higher taxes.
Here's my new law: If you're over 55 you pay no taxes. Screw everyone else. If your under 55 you have to pay for me.
That would be idiotic right? Completely unfair to an entire class of citizens. It would never happen.
So why are you defending a system that lets 10,000,000 people work here and pay no taxes? I don't get your argument.