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CBO on Migrant Workers
I came across this slide from the Census Bureau.
When you do the calculations on births/deaths/migrant workers you get the following results:
Annual births: 4.5mm
Annual deaths:2.9mm
Net change: 1.6mm
Net new migrant workers 790,000
From this one gets the total increase in population at ~2.6mm. Fully one-third of that growth comes from foreign immigrant workers.
I was surprised to see how big the migrant worker side of the equation
was. That comes to 66,000 a month. If you follow the monthly Non-Farms
Payroll report you know that there have been many months that we don’t
create that many net new jobs.
Our friends at the Congressional Budget Office just happened to have issued a report on this subject on Friday. Catchy title:
A slide that I thought was interesting shows just how much money is leaving the country from those foreign migrant workers:
The total came to $66 billion in 2009. That is a very big number. Of the
$31b that left the shores to go south of the border $20b ended up in
Mexico. Asia was the beneficiary of $17b of inward money flows. Of that,
$3.2b went to China. China manages to suck the blood out of the USA
every which way. We send them our money for interest on our debt. We
send them money for everything we buy from them. And those who come to
work here send back a few billion more.
Allow me to “play” with these numbers a bit. I believe that the vast
majority of the money going to Latin America (31b) is from undocumented
workers. The same is true for the $5b going to Africa. I will assume a
conservative estimate that only 50% of the $17b going to Asia is from
illegal workers (9b). I will be generous and exclude all of the money
(total 15b) going to Canada, Europe and the Middle East (there are many
undocumented workers in this set). My conservative estimate is that
~$45b a year is leaving the country from undocumented workers.
A question is, “How much of an illegal workers pay is being sent back home?” My answer to that is: “Somewhere between 0 and 50%".
Call it 25%. This means that a worker sends home one week of wages for
every month that they are here. I actually think the percent number is
lower. It is hard to get by in America with just three weeks of wages a
month. The savings rate for Americans is less than 5%.
If you accept my (conservative) one week in four argument then you can
conclude that the total wages being paid to these workers is ~$180b a
year (4 x 45b). That is a very substantial amount of money.
The average legal worker pays 7% in Social Security and other FICA
taxes. The average Federal tax rate is about 20% and the average state
income tax is another 5%. It comes to about 33 cents on the dollar.
Put that together and you get lost tax revenue of ~$60b (180*.33). I
think this is a pretty good estimate given that I excluded the $15b
going to Europe/Canada and 50% of Asia. But I will ‘haircut’ this
estimate down to $50b a year. That still is a hell of lot of money.
-A ½ Trillion over the next decade would be very welcome.
-$50b a year would solve all of the state’s problems if the money were committed to them over a long period of time.
-$50b a year would be a hell of a down payment on the energy infrastructure build out that we so desperately need.
-$50b a year would turn Social Security into a perpetual “pay as you go
system”. We could forget about any funding shorts falls forever.
-$50b a year would go a very long way to bring our educational system back up to par.
What would you do with an extra $50b a year? Let’s face it, we need this money and it would be very helpful if we had it.
The bottom line is that America needs immigrant workers. We also need
the tax dollars that come from the wages that are paid. We don’t need to
have all this money just leak out of they system while the social costs
of illegal workers stay in country.
This is America’s Black Economy. It stares us in the face every
day. For the life of me I can’t figure why we don’t confront the
problem. But notice that neither the Republican nor the Democrats have
even raised it as an issue for 2011. They are too busy fighting over
budget cuts, yet there is a big bucket of money right at their feet.
We don’t need to solve the broad immigration problem today. That is a
very complex/emotive task. We should start the process by making sure
that illegal workers pay their taxes. Just like the natural American
workers do.
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Brucie Babe, you're nothing but one of the sheep in the flock. You're being farmed by an Anglo-American Power Elite who also farms anywhere else that they can get away with (and some places they can't, which is why American needs such a large military). Don't look at those people as "illegal immigrants". Look at them as "rustled sheep" which is what they really are to your overlord Flock Owners. This is the reason the Sheep Herders have no interest in stopping "illegal immigration". As long as your owners continue to profit by the trade and their cost to maintain the rustled "illegal" sheep is just some of your rations, this "illegal" immigration will be defacto "legal". After all it was your owners that made it "illegal" originally. They can change their minds anytime they want.
On another note, do you have paperwork to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that all of your ancestors were "legal"? If not, why not?
If I can call you whatever I like, is it OK to call you a "nigger"?
Couldn't have said it better myself. Thx FeralSerf!
About that Nigga-stuff. I'm blond, blue eyes and 6foot+, (I look a little like that Alex Jones fellow, little skinnier) nothing you'll usually associate with it. However, and this is a fact, I've been called this, nigga, for a long period by many. Those who are working the tranches are quite self-aware. The N word bonds, it's used to differentiate "our group" from the man in the big house. Against the guy that holds your paycheck, making money hand over fist exploiting you. By the repetitive use of the N-word you feel reassured that your group is pretty big, and can take down the system all at once if you want. (But all seem lost on how and where to take action. Story of our time, I’ll guess).
Hear this; after I asked if “my homey” paid taxes he replied; "I'm not rich enough to pay taxes". ($7.15/hr). And threw whatever the IRS sent him straight in the trash can.
Dudes; it's that simple!
(disclaimer; I did and do pay taxes, I've been deemd unwanted twice (nothing to do with taxes btw), and eventhough I could do it again to make a stand, I pass this time around...)
I thought about using FeralNigger as my screen name, but I was afraid that Tyler was too politically correct to allow it. "Nigger" really should not be considered a racial epithet anymore. That's way too 20th centuryish. It really represents one that is owned lock, stock, and barrel by another. I can think of some politicians that fit this description. Many ordinary Americans fit it too with their debt enslavement. It's part of the Power Elite's agenda -- to make all of us one.
so you have a source for 10M not paying taxes?
Bruce let me try to alter your thoughts in a couple of sentences.
I’m not portraying to be an expert on the immigration issue. However, after been illegal in the USA AND illegal in my county of birth, I do have some profound firsthand experience.
To be legal or illegal is just one pen stroke away. Literally. And you’re not the one holding the pen. To be “Assanged”, as I call it, is one cheap trick that works well for your over lord.
Why not take the side of these none-tax-payers for once? With all the moneys flowing out, as you showed, I can make an argument that personal gain or greed is not the motivation for them to work here (or there, the US is not the only place where you can be illegal). Your over lord, the one you’re stimulating to crack down on illegals, puts up your borders. Let's face it: The bigger the bank is in a land, the bigger government, the bigger the immigration issue. That should open your mind right there.
Look at the people who are securing the banking system. As you know they have just as much of a tax burden as the -so called- illegals. Their staying out of their own system (and yours) as much as they can.
See it like this;
Isn’t this county great? Aliens are able to collectively set up a highly effective, and for society inexpensive, global foreign aid program? I think it awesome.
Sad thing though, and you know as well as I do, that if you would give the illegals an opportunity to pay taxes, they will. For some reason or another, people want to belong to “the group”. Because otherwise they, through postings like yours, make them feel expelled. That’s how you set up the people against each other. You’re working it. All while we can fight the same beast.
So, Bruce, go ahead and stir up the masses. Call for a crackdown. Let all those families starve! All because you pay your over lord, and you don’t want that. I don’t want that for you either. But you’re telling the aliens to eat dirt, because... your family took the land of the Indians first? What a joke!
O, and for the f#ckers who are asking themselves; is this Ray character legal? Go polish yourself! I don't give a f#ck about my (with is practically theirs) status anymore. They can close the system on you in a second. And you won’t even know it. For no legal or illegal reason at all! It’s all part of your over-contoling system, f#ckers!
(In my case; I was free for a year… stayed away from money treadmill… "they" can't handle that... And o-boy, did freedom come with a big price ticket).
Because he is illegal and doesn't want the same tax treatment?
One, we don't need illegal immigrant labor. We need to reduce unemployment benefits down to 4-6 weeks and force the lazy people like robot trader to work and quit collecting govt checks. The unemployment rate is north of 20% and these people could fill that void.
Also, they pay close to zero in taxes, outside of sales tax on food in certain states and occasional crap from wal-mart. They are paid in cash. They are not leaving. Do not let anyone tell you they are leaving because the job market is so bad now. The number of employers going 'under the table' now and hiring illegals is higher than ever.
Cockroaches...like robot trader
Well, you were doing OK up until your last statement. I'm sorry, but while I'm against illegal immigration, and even the rediculous "guest worker" programs, I really don't think people are aware that the U.S. is actually the cause of key parts of the situation.
For that, you can thank NAFTA.
At least in Mexico, what happened after NAFTA was signed is that U.S. Agribusiness moved in and decimated the local farm industry. Farmers there couldn't compete. One source for this is the movie "Food, Inc.". I strongly suggest people view it for the entire content, as it's well worth watching.
So, ask yourself this. If you were in their shoes, and you lost your farming business, what would you do?
If you want to blame someone, blame American "Free Trade" policies. These farmworkers are people, just like us, and to denigrate them like that is not only inappropriate, but also to distract from the real issue. We're seeing the elites in this Country benefitting from this misery.
NAFTA's consequences - intended and unintended - have been overwhelmingly negative for the majority of people ruled by its signatory regimes.
Recall that Juarez was the poster-city for NAFTA. Charles Bowden has done some terrific reporting about the Ciudad over the last fifteen years. Even before the recent violence, production was shifting from Juarez to SE Asia, because the Mexicans' wages (roughly $75 a week) were too high.
The Rio Grande is, so far as I know, the only place on the planet where a large, first-world economy meets a large third-world economy.
And while a cracked-down, walled-off, get-tough approach might seem emotionally satisfying, by choking off the remittance with this might well cause the total implosion of the Mexican political economy.
Seems to me that chaos in a nation of 100 million on our doorstep is not a desireable outcome, and would likely cost much more than any "savings" such a policy claims.
+1 blame and change the policy. I hate the prevalent attitude of blaming the poor for being poor. If you would just build a better liquor store, it wouldn't get robbed; If you just worked harder, you wouldn't be so poor, it's all your fault
You are correct that we have our own failed policies, partially to blame. I will not take back what I said about illegals being cockroaches. How many other countries in the western hemisphere is it a badge of honor to be a criminal? Mexico is an absolute shithole, everyone is corrupt from the top of the ladder all the way down to the bottom. Look up some of the statistics about crime in the US and see how much of it is from illegal immigrants. These rats come up here, supposedly "live in the shadows" and are still, BY FAR, accounting for a plurality of crime. If they are this troublesome living in the shadows, just wait until they come out. This whole country will look like that dump at some point.
Most cockroaches, especially the ones found more than a few miles from the borders, are red(?)-blooded natural born American cockroaches. I used to live in an apartment in San Francisco where my (non-foreign low-life) neighbors bred them.
I dont know why we dont sell american citizenship to any family with half a million in liquid assets. However there should be no loopholes for bringing in distant relatives later. Limit 6 per household and no eligibility for social services for ten years.
it sells,just no one wish to buy for half million,its overpriced,i will be not taking its for free,i currently have 8years off from my taxes in my country,why do i need america?or any one else need it,its the way to offer to rich people kind of taxation-who of them need it,to pay 0.5mln and then to pay some 50% to support futher Ancle Sam?people not crazy,soon america will pay for its citizenship as any other country which want someone real worker produce anything
http://www.businessinsider.com/glenn-hubbard-inside-job-2011-2
Oh and newsflash - they already have such a program
The U.S. Congress created the fifth employment-based preference (EB-5)immigrant visa category in 1990 for immigrants seeking to engage in a commercial enterprise that will benefit the U.S. economy and create at least 10 full-time jobs.
The basic amount required to invest is $1 million, although that amount may be $500,000 if the investment is made in a “targeted employment area.” The law defines a “targeted employment area” as (i) a rural area or (ii) an area that has experienced high unemployment of at least 150 percent of the national average. To be considered a rural area the commercial enterprise can not be located (i) within a metropolitan statistical area or (ii) within the outer boundary of any city or town having a population of 20,000 or more.
To qualify under the EB-5 program, the new enterprise must: (i) be one in which the person has invested at least $1 million (or at least $500,000 if investing in a “targeted employment area”); (ii) benefit the U.S. economy; and (iii) create full-time employment for at least 10 U.S. workers.
To encourage immigration through the EB-5 category, Congress created the Immigrant Investor Pilot Program in 1993. The Pilot Program sets aside 3,000 visas each year for people who invest in “designated regional centers.” The Pilot Program does not require that the commercial enterprise itself employ 10 U.S. workers. Instead, it is permissible for 10 or more jobs to be created directly or indirectly as a result of the investment.
is that your prediction? 36k...its mine as well
Because they have zero interest in coming here.
Try living in the third world. You might have a different perspective.
500,000 in India puts you where 10-15 million does in the West
With $500k in an undeveloped economy? Not likely.
LOL I have a freind that made millions and lives in Mexico - won't move back because he lives like a king
i suspect most illigals that are employed pay taxes, have them withheld, be tough to explain to the CPA's; why only withholding for a portion of workforce?
Plus they often don't collect a dime from their social security contributions. I've seen official estimates that exceed $100 billion of unclaimed social security from temporary foreign workers.
Good reply snowy,
Yeah 36er, everybody wants to come to usa man, its so free and lots of jobs...
have you ever been out of kentucky?
The poorest of the poor, ex-dictators and some indian new grads wanna come to usa but otherwise its pretty sweet elsewhere.
hahahahah 1/2 mill and no benefits for 10 years - they'll be no US$ by then
Well the FED is 'creating' 50B every 2 weeks so it's a drop in the bucket anyway
The saying goes "a drowning man will grab a razor to hold on" well but it won't save him anyway he'll just drown in pain
50B this way or the other what does it matter
Have to agree with you - 50B is about a month's worth of SS and SS-Disability payments from the Treasury. Of course, every little bit helps.
From personal knowledge - 'Ramone' worked in our medium size Southeastern city for a lawn service, lived with 8 other undocumented workers in a large apartment, and sent about 80% of his wages back to Mexico on a bi-weekly basis. He worked weekends at odd jobs for Beer, rode a bicycle purchased from the Goodwill store, and was careful to never come to the attention of the police for five years. When the economy stalled, he headed south with $5k saved to pay the mule to cross the border and return to his wife and family of 3 children, only to find the wife gone with the money he had sent and the kids living with a Grandmother. One of the hardest physical workers I have ever seen - for $8 to $10 an hour - and cheerful to boot.
Shopped for fence posts in January at HDepot where a DSA (Dark Skinned American) volunteered to "helpyaout, needsomework" and said he would be willing to dig holes - for $20 an hour, cash. But he would need some extra up front for gas.
I miss Ramone. Did the job myself over a couple of weekends - would have taken him a Saturday afternoon.
Agreed - the author acts like someone is holding a gun to our heads and syphoning off our wealth. Couldn't be further from the truth. I'm all for enforcing our laws on immigration, and foreclosure and so on, but whinging about those foreigners skimming off our money is ridiculous.
Did you know that these illegal immigrants don't pay taxes and steal ID's to get those jobs? How about we let illegal immigrants come in and work for GM and Ford to replace the unions? How about we get them to replace all government employees? I bet there would be a huge push for border security then.
dr dazed, let me guess, you are not impacted by the loss of earnings in industry like say meat packing where wages and benefits are 50% what they were in 1970's?? so lets just screw em those in construction and other labor areas like food and such..my guess you are in teaching where the gov forces us to support your life style?
The question isn't why don't we get THEM to pay taxes? It's why do WE pay taxes at all. Government is the mafia.
VAT, bitchez.
Do you really think they will repeal income taxes if VAT is passed? It will be in addition to income and payroll taxes just as in Europe. Then you still have the state and local taxes. VAT only gives the federal government more power and control.
agreed, VAT and Immigrant income attrition will not save us, in the face of exponential growth, get ready for zero growth coming;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY&p=964D5580AD36A281
Bruce Krasting's logic doesn't make much sense.
If someone does something illegal like steal a $100 from your wallet every week, what's the best course of action (A or B)?
A) Stop him from stealing and put him in jail
B) Tax him $10 out of that $100 so you can at least get some of your money back
I also wonder how he figured out that "The bottom line is that America needs immigrant workers"