CDS Traders Beating The UK Death Drums

Tyler Durden's picture

As we pointed out last week, nobody cares about either Greece or the PIIGs any more. The focus among the smartest money out there, in the face of CDS traders, for the third week running, is on the core of Europe, and specifically on the UK. Last week the net notional derisking in UK was a massive $1,063 million in 280 traded contracts, which according to our files is the single biggest one week derisking amount on record. all the Greek "speculators" are now focusing their attention squarely on the UK... and France, which came in second with $384 million in derisking. Incidentally, these two represented the greatest amount of of derisking in all top 1000 CDS reference names (third altogether was not surprisingly Goldman Sachs with $256 million). The bet is now squarely on that the PIIGS contagion will move to the UK, and that France will also not be spared. We wish Mr. Cameron all the best as he attempts to push the $50 billion austerity measure through. We have a feeling his popularity rating in under a year will be even lower than that of president Obama. And if it isn't it will be because the cable and the dollar will be at parity. After all, we are all money devaluing comrades now.

Top 10 sovereign deriskers:

Top 10 sovereign reriskers:

Total sovereign weekly activity:



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john_connor's picture

That's what I thought.

Anton LaVey's picture

UK is a much easier target than France since (a) it is not part of the Eurozone and (b) as such, it is not going to be "helped" by the EU/ECB.

My bet is on the UK - next stop, either Japan or the USA. The British Pound is going to go down in flames and things are going to become and more and more difficult as time goes on.

plongka10's picture

Just as well the swap lines are in place then....

Jacob Dreizin's picture

All the born-again bible thumpers on this board should know that Anton Lavey is a bona fide worshipper of THE EVIL ONE.  Woohoo!  Bombs away.

Anton LaVey's picture

Oh, please Jacob. We have been through that before, now, haven't we?

And bombs are such crude weapons of mass destruction, compared to the hexadecimal beauty of an HFT algo running millisecond trades.

Jacob Dreizin's picture

We have???  Anyway I don't have anything against people who warship satin or use satin warshippers as their avatars.  Just wanted to see if anyone got offended.  Due to the "doomer" commonality of ZH readers, people here often post comments indicating their assumption that most others here are coming from the same politcal-cultural perspective and background as themselves.  Which couldn't be further from the truth.

Anton LaVey's picture

Very true. And, yes, some people got really offended when I started posting here. There is a long thread between me and "ApocalypseNow" where I had to explain it to him.

JW n FL's picture

But why?


Hell Fire!


Spreadin the Good Word and Praying for the end!


Thats what bein a good christian is all about!


I hope you you are praying for the end too... in your own form... pontificating about the beauty of the end thru some dumbass copula... makes you the same as one of them.. idiot.. explain it to me.


Explain to me the difference between them praying for the end and you pontificating about the end? whats the difference, what have you rationalized that are the major differences?

Anton LaVey's picture

You are not making any sense. But that's OK, because, even in the ranting and insults of a deranged mind, there is some truth, like pearls lost in a sea of mud.

And, just so you know, I am not praying for "the end" (the end of...? what, exactly?). I don't think there will be an "end", so to speak. The folly of our times have happened before in the (short) history and it will happen again. As Einstein used to say, only two things are infinite: the universe and the stupidity of men. And he wasn't so sure about the Universe.

On this note, kind sir, I wish you a pleasant and very nice day.

Canucklehead's picture

...Satin is a nice cloth but I woodn't worship it...

tim73's picture

It seems like it. The speculator foxes got a little bit scared of the German Wolf. So cute little dog on the western flank is much easier target. :)

Quintus's picture

I'm counting on this happening.  It's a key assumption of my investment strategy.  It is also inevitable.

Missing_Link's picture

Any investment recommendations?  Short the pound, and what else  ...?

Internet Tough Guy's picture

Why try to pick the worst currency of the week to short and worry about intervention? Long gold is a short on all paper.

Quintus's picture

Short Sterling.  Long Gold and Silver.  Eliminate any variable rate debt.  Get out of UK real estate.

cossack55's picture

So what does that mean, specifically, on the price of fish and chips and do they have anything else in bloody ole England worth eating?

tim73's picture

Soon you will be able to combine American unhealthy cuisine with English bad tasting tortured fish and Scottish overboiled rotten lamb.

Mr Shush's picture

Boiled nothing. I like my rotten lamb deep fried, just like my oats soaked in fat, oaks soaked in blood, and Mars bars, thank you very much.

nathan1234's picture

After  the Euro - the British Pound- then the US$. The die is cast.

Renfield's picture

Wow. For the last 2 hours (here in Sydney) I've been saying to my husband, Why the hell are they selling GBP and EUR is just putzing around?

Thank God for the candles. We sold some GBP and couldn't justify a EUR position...the candles never lie!! I find these days I'm just following them, doing whatever they say, and then have to read around (especially here at ZH) to find out why.

Thanks for the Why, Tyler...for those of us less on the pulse of things. :-)

tim73's picture

I volunteer to the kicking them out party. We continental Europeans (part of Greater Germania now) donate UK to the US as 51st state or as cute pet. 

Quintus's picture

That would be great thanks.  Now can we have back the money you demanded from the UK last weekend to bailout your precious Euro?

Anton LaVey's picture

... Money that, if I remember correctly, was never paid, since the UK government essentially said: "not my problem" when asked for a contribution.

Quintus's picture

Umm no.  Under section 122 of the Lisbon Treaty, the UK was compelled to contribute £10bn to the initial €60 bn fund.  


It was a stitch up, since section 122 only requires qualified majority voting, so the UK had no veto and the Euro countries (of course) all voted themselves some of our money.

tim73's picture

Germans are putting something like 100+ billion euros total, so your point is exactly what? British are sometimes a little bit like that, making grand statements for their pitiful pennies while Germans actually pay for everything.

plongka10's picture

That's the price you pay for entering a fucked up monetary union and becoming France's bum chum.

Quintus's picture

The point is:  IT'S NOT OUR CURRENCY!  How much, exactly have the Germans contributed to maintain Sterling?

tim73's picture

UK has never paid their full share of the costs of EU budget so in that way, a lot more in savings. 

Quintus's picture

Well now that's interesting.  I was under the impression that we were overpaying so much that the EU gave Margaret Thatcher a rebate of several billion a year, which continued until Tony Blair recklessly gave it away in return for some promises (broken of course) to reform the CAP system a few years ago.  

So your point is that we got rebates every year for 20+ years because we were underpaying?  Doesn't sound right to me.  

tip e. canoe's picture

livin in a decaying empire's a bitch ain't it?

JW n FL's picture
by tim73
on Wed, 05/12/2010 - 09:05

Germans are putting something like 100+ billion euros total, so your point is exactly what? British are sometimes a little bit like that, making grand statements for their pitiful pennies while Germans actually pay for everything.



          You sound like a proud German... so lets review...


Germany pushed for Austerity measures for Greece... which caused so much distress in Germany's currency of choice that a $750b dollar non-Austerity printing session is still under way... to wit, America open a swap window to stabilize your shitty Euro's...


So, Germany pushed for Austerity and ended up with a Print Fest and America owning your Countries hard work going forward for how long? God Bless the exchange rate...


And to be clear, the last time Germany went all protectionist... well the last 2 times... lets just say the U.S. has enjoyed all of those patents we took from your German Patent office. I will not be pushing for troop depolyments for the next German problem... I will be pushing for tactical nukes, fuck you.


Swaps window is open German Bitches!!! Austerity my ass!

tim73's picture

FL like Florida? Just go to the beach and start cleaning up, bitch. And then go bitch about tourism collapsing to the Obama boys.

Votewithabullet's picture

Nein scheissekopf ist  JW... Fucking Loser.

plongka10's picture

I think you are getting our GBP 10 billion contribution to the "stabilisation mechanism" mixed up with our declining to stay out of the GBP 520 billion bailout fund. I know, all these numbers and bailouts floating around - so easy to get confused.

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

What!!!!! how DARE you trash Obama and say he is/ or is becoming unpopular. He is handling this!! All is well!!! You guys are a bunch of racists AND terrorists!!! GRRRRR you evil ones!!! I HATE you!! Eat Hope and Die @##% you.


FERAL SCREAMING, EYES bulging, running in circles until I pass out in anger.


Junk me people, junk me in all your glory   ;)


I heart ZH.

Renfield's picture


no,'re in the wrong house darlin. Nobody believes in pollies here. it's Huffington you want. Over thataway. ;-)

But running screaming & passing out is ALWAYS fun and never out of place in Fight Club. I do a lot of that myself when things get slow here at home.

chindit13's picture

Agreed.  I would never vote for anyone who sought public office.  Can't be trusted.

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

I love you guys. You all do know it was a joke, I hope. I worry for a few of ya. Very proud of the junk in my trunk ;)

WaterWings's picture

"Eat hope and die!"

My brain took me back to review because it said what I thought it did. Classic.

monmick's picture

Watch for Cameron to start airing out Brown's/Blair's 13 years of skeletons. Should be interesting...

Anton LaVey's picture

An investigation into the UK support for G.W.Bush's GWOT would be interesting.

But it's never going to happen - gentlemen's agreement, Oxbridge links and all that.

I mean, can't let the vulgum pecus in on the joke, if you know wot I mean.

zenmeister's picture

Greece all kicked off because a new government found the accounts filed by the preivous one to be ...well, wrong!

buzzsaw99's picture

Too bad the UK is too much of a pussy to use their nuke weapons on the hedgies. heh heh

I was shopping for recliners online yesterday and now a berkline ad pops up on zh. What a coinkidink! Dream on berkline, you pos.

Handle with care's picture

Vince Cable was appointed Business and Banking Minister.  He's probably the most anti-bank politician in the UK.  He's a Lib Dem and the Lib Dem official policy is to break up the banks retail from their investment banking arms.  (The Lib Dems call it their "Casino Arms").  The Tories agreed to implement this policy as part of the Alliance Agreement.

Both he and the Tory Chancellor believe there needs to be a special bank tax and that the bonuses are immoral and only earned because the banks are a cartel.

Pretty strong stuff and if there is any truth to the ZH meme that the big banks jerk the markets around to apply political pressure then the UK would be the obvious target as if the UK gets these policies in place, its likely the EU will copy them and then the pressure will rise in the US to do the same.


If I was a vampire squid and was directing my shoal of lampreys, I'd direct all of them to kill off the reforms in the UK before it spreads


Renfield's picture

"He pulls a knife, you pull a gun.  He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue.  That’s the Chicago way!  That’s how you get Capone."

I wonder what they are REALLY prepared to do.