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CDS Traders Beating The UK Death Drums
As we pointed out last week, nobody cares about either Greece or the PIIGs any more. The focus among the smartest money out there, in the face of CDS traders, for the third week running, is on the core of Europe, and specifically on the UK. Last week the net notional derisking in UK was a massive $1,063 million in 280 traded contracts, which according to our files is the single biggest one week derisking amount on record. all the Greek "speculators" are now focusing their attention squarely on the UK... and France, which came in second with $384 million in derisking. Incidentally, these two represented the greatest amount of of derisking in all top 1000 CDS reference names (third altogether was not surprisingly Goldman Sachs with $256 million). The bet is now squarely on that the PIIGS contagion will move to the UK, and that France will also not be spared. We wish Mr. Cameron all the best as he attempts to push the $50 billion austerity measure through. We have a feeling his popularity rating in under a year will be even lower than that of president Obama. And if it isn't it will be because the cable and the dollar will be at parity. After all, we are all money devaluing comrades now.
Top 10 sovereign deriskers:
Top 10 sovereign reriskers:
Total sovereign weekly activity:
Source: dtcc.org
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That's what I thought.
UK is a much easier target than France since (a) it is not part of the Eurozone and (b) as such, it is not going to be "helped" by the EU/ECB.
My bet is on the UK - next stop, either Japan or the USA. The British Pound is going to go down in flames and things are going to become and more and more difficult as time goes on.
Just as well the swap lines are in place then....
All the born-again bible thumpers on this board should know that Anton Lavey is a bona fide worshipper of THE EVIL ONE. Woohoo! Bombs away.
Oh, please Jacob. We have been through that before, now, haven't we?
And bombs are such crude weapons of mass destruction, compared to the hexadecimal beauty of an HFT algo running millisecond trades.
We have??? Anyway I don't have anything against people who warship satin or use satin warshippers as their avatars. Just wanted to see if anyone got offended. Due to the "doomer" commonality of ZH readers, people here often post comments indicating their assumption that most others here are coming from the same politcal-cultural perspective and background as themselves. Which couldn't be further from the truth.
Very true. And, yes, some people got really offended when I started posting here. There is a long thread between me and "ApocalypseNow" where I had to explain it to him.
But why?
Hell Fire!
Spreadin the Good Word and Praying for the end!
Thats what bein a good christian is all about!
I hope you you are praying for the end too... in your own form... pontificating about the beauty of the end thru some dumbass copula... makes you the same as one of them.. idiot.. explain it to me.
Explain to me the difference between them praying for the end and you pontificating about the end? whats the difference, what have you rationalized that are the major differences?
You are not making any sense. But that's OK, because, even in the ranting and insults of a deranged mind, there is some truth, like pearls lost in a sea of mud.
And, just so you know, I am not praying for "the end" (the end of...? what, exactly?). I don't think there will be an "end", so to speak. The folly of our times have happened before in the (short) history and it will happen again. As Einstein used to say, only two things are infinite: the universe and the stupidity of men. And he wasn't so sure about the Universe.
On this note, kind sir, I wish you a pleasant and very nice day.
...Satin is a nice cloth but I woodn't worship it...
LOL
Worship satin? Hm.
http://www.worldtropicsgirls.com/headers/satin-sexy-red-thong-bikini.jpg
It seems like it. The speculator foxes got a little bit scared of the German Wolf. So cute little dog on the western flank is much easier target. :)
I'm counting on this happening. It's a key assumption of my investment strategy. It is also inevitable.
Any investment recommendations? Short the pound, and what else ...?
Why try to pick the worst currency of the week to short and worry about intervention? Long gold is a short on all paper.
Short Sterling. Long Gold and Silver. Eliminate any variable rate debt. Get out of UK real estate.
Love it Quintus
So what does that mean, specifically, on the price of fish and chips and do they have anything else in bloody ole England worth eating?
Soon you will be able to combine American unhealthy cuisine with English bad tasting tortured fish and Scottish overboiled rotten lamb.
Boiled nothing. I like my rotten lamb deep fried, just like my oats soaked in fat, oaks soaked in blood, and Mars bars, thank you very much.
After the Euro - the British Pound- then the US$. The die is cast.
Wow. For the last 2 hours (here in Sydney) I've been saying to my husband, Why the hell are they selling GBP and EUR is just putzing around?
Thank God for the candles. We sold some GBP and couldn't justify a EUR position...the candles never lie!! I find these days I'm just following them, doing whatever they say, and then have to read around (especially here at ZH) to find out why.
Thanks for the Why, Tyler...for those of us less on the pulse of things. :-)
I volunteer to the kicking them out party. We continental Europeans (part of Greater Germania now) donate UK to the US as 51st state or as cute pet.
Oh, the hubris!
That would be great thanks. Now can we have back the money you demanded from the UK last weekend to bailout your precious Euro?
... Money that, if I remember correctly, was never paid, since the UK government essentially said: "not my problem" when asked for a contribution.
Umm no. Under section 122 of the Lisbon Treaty, the UK was compelled to contribute £10bn to the initial €60 bn fund.
It was a stitch up, since section 122 only requires qualified majority voting, so the UK had no veto and the Euro countries (of course) all voted themselves some of our money.
Germans are putting something like 100+ billion euros total, so your point is exactly what? British are sometimes a little bit like that, making grand statements for their pitiful pennies while Germans actually pay for everything.
That's the price you pay for entering a fucked up monetary union and becoming France's bum chum.
The point is: IT'S NOT OUR CURRENCY! How much, exactly have the Germans contributed to maintain Sterling?
UK has never paid their full share of the costs of EU budget so in that way, a lot more in savings.
Well now that's interesting. I was under the impression that we were overpaying so much that the EU gave Margaret Thatcher a rebate of several billion a year, which continued until Tony Blair recklessly gave it away in return for some promises (broken of course) to reform the CAP system a few years ago.
So your point is that we got rebates every year for 20+ years because we were underpaying? Doesn't sound right to me.
livin in a decaying empire's a bitch ain't it?
on Wed, 05/12/2010 - 09:05
#345977
Germans are putting something like 100+ billion euros total, so your point is exactly what? British are sometimes a little bit like that, making grand statements for their pitiful pennies while Germans actually pay for everything.
tim73,
You sound like a proud German... so lets review...
Germany pushed for Austerity measures for Greece... which caused so much distress in Germany's currency of choice that a $750b dollar non-Austerity printing session is still under way... to wit, America open a swap window to stabilize your shitty Euro's...
So, Germany pushed for Austerity and ended up with a Print Fest and America owning your Countries hard work going forward for how long? God Bless the exchange rate...
And to be clear, the last time Germany went all protectionist... well the last 2 times... lets just say the U.S. has enjoyed all of those patents we took from your German Patent office. I will not be pushing for troop depolyments for the next German problem... I will be pushing for tactical nukes, fuck you.
Swaps window is open German Bitches!!! Austerity my ass!
FL like Florida? Just go to the beach and start cleaning up, bitch. And then go bitch about tourism collapsing to the Obama boys.
Nein scheissekopf ist JW... Fucking Loser.
I think you are getting our GBP 10 billion contribution to the "stabilisation mechanism" mixed up with our declining to stay out of the GBP 520 billion bailout fund. I know, all these numbers and bailouts floating around - so easy to get confused.
What!!!!! how DARE you trash Obama and say he is/ or is becoming unpopular. He is handling this!! All is well!!! You guys are a bunch of racists AND terrorists!!! GRRRRR you evil ones!!! I HATE you!! Eat Hope and Die @##% you.
FERAL SCREAMING, EYES bulging, running in circles until I pass out in anger.
Junk me people, junk me in all your glory ;)
I heart ZH.
LOL
no, no...you're in the wrong house darlin. Nobody believes in pollies here. it's Huffington you want. Over thataway. ;-)
But running screaming & passing out is ALWAYS fun and never out of place in Fight Club. I do a lot of that myself when things get slow here at home.
Agreed. I would never vote for anyone who sought public office. Can't be trusted.
+1
JUNK BITCHES!!!
I love you guys. You all do know it was a joke, I hope. I worry for a few of ya. Very proud of the junk in my trunk ;)
"Eat hope and die!"
My brain took me back to review because it said what I thought it did. Classic.
Watch for Cameron to start airing out Brown's/Blair's 13 years of skeletons. Should be interesting...
An investigation into the UK support for G.W.Bush's GWOT would be interesting.
But it's never going to happen - gentlemen's agreement, Oxbridge links and all that.
I mean, can't let the vulgum pecus in on the joke, if you know wot I mean.
Greece all kicked off because a new government found the accounts filed by the preivous one to be ...well, wrong!
Too bad the UK is too much of a pussy to use their nuke weapons on the hedgies. heh heh
I was shopping for recliners online yesterday and now a berkline ad pops up on zh. What a coinkidink! Dream on berkline, you pos.
Vince Cable was appointed Business and Banking Minister. He's probably the most anti-bank politician in the UK. He's a Lib Dem and the Lib Dem official policy is to break up the banks retail from their investment banking arms. (The Lib Dems call it their "Casino Arms"). The Tories agreed to implement this policy as part of the Alliance Agreement.
Both he and the Tory Chancellor believe there needs to be a special bank tax and that the bonuses are immoral and only earned because the banks are a cartel.
Pretty strong stuff and if there is any truth to the ZH meme that the big banks jerk the markets around to apply political pressure then the UK would be the obvious target as if the UK gets these policies in place, its likely the EU will copy them and then the pressure will rise in the US to do the same.
If I was a vampire squid and was directing my shoal of lampreys, I'd direct all of them to kill off the reforms in the UK before it spreads
"He pulls a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. That’s the Chicago way! That’s how you get Capone."
I wonder what they are REALLY prepared to do.
dammit. deleted double post
Doesn't matter. We are going to bail out the entire world. Like I said months ago, short CDS now in these new areas while rates are high and cover while rates are low in greek CDS. You can make a ton of money off of idiots who don't realize that we don't even need to print paper to bail out the banks (sovs too) now.
The day the UK collapses will be one of the happiest days of my life.
Take your cable profit at 1.40. Won't ever start a new month below that level.
The day the world's sixth largest economy and largest financial centre 'collapses' ain't gonna be too peachy for the rest of the world.
Personally I don't want to see gold at $10,000/ounce...
hell, I do....and the world needs restructuring (why delay the inevitable?)
Based on historical experience, the 'restructuring' will be world war. Can't wait.
Go long fallout bunkers and canned food...
Bingo.
Now, that is just mean. Careful there, British are drilling a relief well in your backyard...they might use it for exactly that. Double hole is better than single hole :)
Gekko isn't trying to make it personal. It's just inevitable. Decades in the wings. We will actually witness collapse! It's not sadistic, it's that Orwellian alternatives are unacceptable.
Who doesn't like the cheeky Brits?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1267500/Meet-SWAGS-Service-Wiv...
+1000. I'm done paying taxes to King George's descendants.
It's very coincidental that the Fed was created at the tail end of the biggest immigration boom in history. They simply followed the people and created shackles using counterfeit fiat.
The new American revolution starts soon, bitches.
Why Commie Gordo?
+1, +1 and on and on
This Summer Blockbuster:
"Bond Vigilantes Does Japan"
After the succes of:
"Bond Vigilantes Does Athens"
and
"Bond Vigilantes Does The King"
:)
As I mentioned in my latest comment on sacrifices to market gods, the UK is very vulnerable right now.
The UK is swimming alone outside the euro bait ball, allowing easy targeting for large predators.
on Wed, 05/12/2010 - 09:05
#345979
The UK is swimming alone outside the euro bait ball, allowing easy targeting for large predators.
Debtless,
The U.K. is a Remora... tucked away under the very Large Pectoral Fin that is the United States Marine Corps...
The U.K. is family, the U.K. has loyalties and I like thier accent... and fuck the Euro trash across the fucking creek, river and / or channel.
The U.K., has the U.S. whenever they need us.
German Austerity measures for Greece equals print and print some more and swap it all out at the U.S. swaps window... Germany crushed the Euro! and the U.S. will now end up owning all of Europes hard work going forward for 50 years?? fixed rate, is not fixed exchange rate... BOOM! Head Shot!! Bitches!!!
I don't know if I should be mad at Germany or send them a Thank you note.. with the money I have made this week, from thier Austerity push... maybe a lil more something than just a card would be aprapos.
"and the U.S. will now end up owning all of Europes hard work going forward for 50 years..."
Hard work?!?
I have never seen anybody on the European side of the pond work hard. This is all being exposed right now and is the ultimate driver (not the final straw breaking the camel's back...the momentum driver) of the Euro devaluation.
"The U.K., has the U.S. whenever they need us."
Certainly true under previous administrations. Based on evidence available so far, it's unclear whether that will be true for the balance of the present administration.
Arent the US citizens primarly Germans?
...kinder-garten?
If CDS are used more as 'nuclear warheads' than 'insurance policies,' then they certainly seem to be doing more harm than good. Everything is going along fine. The CDS 'financial terrorists' attack. Completely ruin a company or country. And then the move on to the next entity. They seem to have nearly a 100% success rate with causing death & destruction.
Bear Stearns-->AIG-->Lehman-->Dubai-->Greece-->EU
The only *surprise* is that GS is on the list. What, 100% winning trades for the quarter isn't enough?!?!? With their access to information, I'm sure they know who is betting against them. Wouldn't you order a counter-offensive if you were attacked? So who are the largest holders of GS CDS? Does anyone know?
Cause and effect is key here.
Do the CDS traders cause the problems? or do they just expose the problems?
Maybe the huge deficit and dept is actually the problem?
so whats the answer when it happens to the UK Leo?
more bailouts? more printing? more debt?
The Obama dig is pointless (even if you hate the dude) because his approval is 50% which is pretty decent with all the bullshit going on. If Cameron's approval is 40-45% after any austerity measures and whatever else goes in this crazy world, hes doing good.
Obama's approval rating is at 50% because American Idol is on tv...the great popular opinion derailer.
The second leg down for him, toward Congress' numbers is coming.
Can't see any reference to the $50billion of cuts Cameron wants to make. Most I've seen in the press is a pitiful £6bn and an emergency budget in JULY! No hurry there then.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5ggUzj86WarqhTO7zRyk-3ujBTzHg
"The markets will be waiting to see whether the £6 billion worth of cuts promised in the Conservative manifesto will get implemented. Every move with respect to fiscal policy the new Government makes is likely to be scrutinised carefully."
How the heck can Turkey be least riskiest
country in the world??
The country has been turning
into an islamist run government
who is in bed with iran,
syria and sudan.
Political risk is way underbought
by CDS traders, imho.
Watch Turkey to unravel
due to boiling political risk
denominator.
Classic Jesse Livermore maneuver--if securities are being artificially propped up, attack the proppers and eventually the whole thing will collapse. I suspect Soros is quite familiar with "Confessions of a Stock Operator."
How can UK CDS possibly make sense? No country that prints its own money is going to technically default, however clear it may be that it will default in real terms, so CDS won't pay out. Surely the way to express skepticism about the UK's finances is to short Sterling?
You are exactly right. I can't understand why anyone would buy speculative CDS against UK debt.
The only way to attack the UK IS to sell stirling and I wouldn't be suprised if that isn't what the BOE want people to do.
With the pound at parity with the dollar and below parity with the euro, UK workers and manufacturing would be by far the most competetive in Western Europe.
I'm not saying things aren't going to get bad in the UK over the short/medium term and some public sector workers are going to be in for a shock but I would bet money that in five years time the UK will be in better position than most of the Euro Zone.
The UK is not Greece.
I agree. The smartest thing the uk ever did was to not shackle themselves to the euro. They can now make unilateral moves with the speed of a puma.
UK workers and manufacturing... How will the City do?
Competitive in what ? Crackers?
No, it's not like Greece, it's worse.
If indeed the UK is next, that is some delicious karmic justice.
The UK is unmatched when it comes to meddling in other countries’ affairs, toppling governments, exploiting resources and local populations, etc.
Even the US is second fiddle.
on Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:03
#346183
If indeed the UK is next, that is some delicious karmic justice.
The UK is unmatched when it comes to meddling in other countries’ affairs, toppling governments, exploiting resources and local populations, etc.
Even the US is second fiddle.
frippy,
"All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
But for you... in your pixie dust, unicorn and rainbow filled world that doesn't make sense... If you think the English are evil... well you should see whats on the other side of the English.
Now lets all sing a song and hug it out! YAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYY!
On second thought, you might look better in a Burka... a step up.
No, I am just kidding... the English would never make you where one of those...
An apologist for the British Empire?
Huh.
I thought they were extinct.
soooo 19th Century
I think the US has made an exemplary effort to date to surpass our past Imperial actions.
Hmmmmm....UK says no to the EURO bailout. EURO trash threaten them and tell them don't come calling to us to bail your ass out when the financial crisis hits you guys........
Doesn't the UK realize they are under attack by the EU nations? The French and German bankers smell blood in the water and are nowattacking UK financially. I hope the new UK leadership steps up and bitch smacks them all!!!
Exit Gordo Brown stage right....
you mean stage left? :-)
TD, regarding the website that you have listed as a source for your information (dtcc.org), the domain name doesn't resolve. but then again, it could be a problem with the dns server on my end...
dtcc.com?
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