The CDS Wolfpack Is Now Coming After France... China
A month ago, Sarkozy was pissed that Merkel had dared to take the initiative over him and to ban naked CDS trading. Being a stubborn reactionary, this action only prolonged his inevitable decision to do the same (because politicians, being the wise Ph.D's they are, realize fully all the nuances of screwing around with the financial ecosystem). However, looking at this week's DTCC data, we have a feeling he may accelerate his decision to join the CDS-ban team. With a total of 456 million in net notional derisking, France was the top entity in which protection was sought in the past week. In a very quiet week, where the 5th most active name did not even make it past the $100 mm threshold, France was more than double the number two sovereign - Mexico (we are unclear if this is some sort of contrarian move to the Yuan reval, which Goldman was pitching as MXN positive, which means traders likely hedged by loading up on Mexican CDS). But what is probably most notable, is the sudden and dramatic appearance of China in the top 3rd position. Welcome China! And after tonight's surprise PMI miss and the resulting market drubbing, we are confident within a week or two, China will promptly become a mainstay of the top 3, and will quickly rise to the top position, where it rightfully belongs. We are also confident those perennial Eastern European underdogs, Romania and Bulgaria will shyly make an entrance in the top 10 next week.
Some interesting action was also seen on the rerisking end, where Italy saw a whopping $1 billion+ in bearish positions get unwound. This is probably the single biggest weekly sov rerisking we have seen in months. Nonetheless, without any concrete news out of the boot, we assume this is merely profit taking after numerous week of consistent derisking. Greece, which nobody cares about, continues to see rerisking, which however in light of this week's new record wides in 5 Year CDS, was somewhat unexpected.
Not shown on the table, but certainly in need of noting, was our very own state of California, which with 377 million in net derisking, was the 3rd most shorted entity of all. Is the last bastion of "all is well" propaganda about to fall?
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