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Ceasefire Between Germany And ECB Has Expired: Greek Compromise Plan Now "Off The Table"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The one catalyst which sent the EURUSD (and thus its first derivative, the SPX) surging on Friday was the Guardian story that Germany, Sarkozy and most importantly, the ECB, have reached a consensus over the form of the second Greek bailout. In the immediate aftermath, Greece, sensing European weakness, announced that it would seek to pass the Troica plan however with substantial changes, a development which prompted us to say that "now that Merkel has effectively thrown in the towel to her, and the
CDU's, political reign by agreeing with the ECB's and France's demands,
a move which will be brutalized by Der Spiegel in T minus 5 minutes,
the fact that Europe blinked to Greece's bluff, just may mean that every
demand out of Greece will be met." Well, sure enough here is Der Spiegel, however instead of seen as bending over to Greece, Germany appears to have had a dramatic change of heart, and told not only Greece to take its demands and shove them, but the ECB to go fornicate itself.

Per AFP: "A German compromise plan to resolve a dispute with the European Central Bank over the Greek rescue that was reported by Der Spiegel magazine is no longer on the table, a government source said Sunday. Der Spiegel had reported ahead of its Monday issue that the German finance ministry called for a beefed-up version of Europe's temporary bailout mechanism lending to Greek banks to insure they have adequate collateral with the ECB. Germany's share of guarantees would climb to 246 billion euros from 123 billion euros, according to the report. But a German official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that while "several options" were being debated to involve private creditors in an Athens rescue, the reported proposal was "no longer on the agenda". The source added that the initial plan had differed from the reported proposal in "key aspects". German officials say they seek a plan with as few "unwanted side effects" as possible." Naturally, key among these being the perception that German is a toothless power, happy to invite inflation now that wanton Euro printing will be the next step in the bailout chain of command. And so the ball is back in the ECB's court which will have to scramble once again to prevent Jean-Claude Jun(c)ker's greatest nightmare: the 20 big figure plunge in the EURUSD predicted by John Noyce earlier.

The ECB has repeatedly warned that requiring creditors to swap existing Greek debt for new bonds with longer maturities could amount to a default, something which could send shock waves through the European and global financial systems.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy agreed Friday to a plan through which private bondholders could volunteer to buy new government bonds to replace ones that matured.

This "rollover" option was favoured by the ECB and France, since it avoids the risk of rating agencies declaring Athens in default.

Germany had previously called for full-scale debt restructuring but Merkel appeared to back down after the meeting with Sarkozy.

Eurozone finance ministers were to meet in Luxembourg later Sunday for talks on saving Athens from default as early as next month.

Merkel said in a separate interview released Sunday that she was upbeat about the eurozone despite the Greek crisis.

"We are already far better equipped now in Europe," Merkel told Super Illu magazine, referring to austerity measures taken by debt-laden member states.

But she said the countries sharing the euro still had to work through "significant failures" and "sins of the past" in terms of fiscal discipline.

Merkel said Greece had "achieved a great deal in the last year -- we should recognise that".

Enjoy the remaining several hours of FX peace. War may be coming as soon as 5pm.

 

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Sun, 06/19/2011 - 11:59 | 1382507 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

This is so funny. I'm gussing tomorrow it's back on.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:24 | 1382565 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Then off. Then on. Then off. Then on again. Then...oh , just screw it. 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:14 | 1382655 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

"Turn-signal" bailout?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:01 | 1382682 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

European pipedreams always end in world wars.

Latin Monetary Union -> WWI

Thousand year empire -> WWII

EUROZONE  --------------> WWIII

 

It's not the EURUSD that will light the fuse.

It's the EURCHF.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:16 | 1382755 Orly
Orly's picture

"It's not the EURUSD that will light the fuse.

It's the EURCHF."

 

Okay.  I'm intrigued.  Please explain.

:D

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:45 | 1382786 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

TPTB have tried to cover the PIIGS flank.

But the Austrian flank has been left unattended. The EURCHF will blow up eastern european debt denominated in CHF. Austrian banks who hold the bag will burn.  Austria has mountains for sale.  When TSHTF, I'd like to buy me the Kahlenberg, as it will be available for a few PM coins worth.

 

http://www.rawstory.com/rawreplay/2011/06/austria-puts-two-mountains-up-...

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:51 | 1382813 Orly
Orly's picture

It was my understanding that the Eastern European debt had already been nationalised by the Austrian banks.

From mid-December 2009:

"Meanwhile, Austrian banks could face another €10bn in writedowns over the next two years, Austria’s central bank warned on Monday. Austrian banks have about €200bn of exposure to central and eastern Europe and have written down €15bn since the start of the crisis.

However, the big three lenders – UniCredit Bank Austria, Raiffeisen Zentralbank and Erste Group – have all remained profitable this year, in spite of making large loan-loss provisions."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ebfa6b22-e890-11de-9c1f-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PkW4J0JY

The Swissie should reverse its nominal status as a world-reserve currency by the simple fact that they are surrounded by Europe and sell most of their goods to Europe.  Europe is in the tank, ergo Switzerland is in the tank.

Watch the GBPCHF and the USDCHF for what could be spectacular reversals.

:D

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:05 | 1382832 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Europe is in the tank, ergo Switzerland is in the tank.

 

Actually, the confederation prospered during WWII.  I'm sure they will benefit this time around as well.

Mon, 06/20/2011 - 07:15 | 1384370 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Switzerland JOIN the ECB (as in admit the ECB is a successful or viable model) - no thank you.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:46 | 1382808 Fox Moulder
Fox Moulder's picture

Is there a news blackout on the riots/revolution in Spain?

 

http://12160.info/page/spanish-revolution-sol-live

(30 second ad at the beginning.)

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:11 | 1382851 ThoughtCriminal
ThoughtCriminal's picture

yep, as well as blackout of largest protests of economic "reforms" (read bankster directed thefts) in Czech Republic; Czech unions halt subways in Prague

you'll have to search for this story on your own, as new communist/fascist internet censorship laws of the USSA prevent linking to certain info sources

Mon, 06/20/2011 - 10:24 | 1384736 trentusa
trentusa's picture

Would you mind please explaining to me why the spx is the first derivative of the EURUSD and the correlation thereof? I tried to google it and it didn't come up exactly immediately

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:37 | 1382683 Tom_333
Tom_333's picture

This post is good.Was that you Gonzo who wrote the piece? Love that clarity of language. Anyway - there seems to some who believe,based on TA that the worst is over.From an European perspective I do not feel that complacent.Next week should be interesting? BTW - if all organic bid goes away can the bot´s keep the index up anyway.Does anyone know what algos the bot´s are on. Do their programs exclude all posssibility of large-scale "events"?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 20:40 | 1383388 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Yes, Greece "had achieved a great deal"--i.e. they took the EU and IMF money and used it to pay their vast army of public officials and employees.  Time for a reload, ala Argentina.  Has Merkel lost her mind?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:02 | 1382512 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Will SPY gap down under the 200-day Monday morning?

Will the CRB Index fall apart?

Gap up in the USDX to break out over the previous highs?

10-yr. yield collapse to 2.90%?

Yep, sure feels like it.

Bears get ready to rumble!!!!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:17 | 1382555 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Not an expert, but based on my arbitrage of true experts here at ZH and the MSM .... (poor attempt humor only, not trolling or sarcasm)

The "come hither" techniques being used on china have worked. They will be there this week. They will inject huge amounts of soon to be worth(alot)less Euros and USD, with the rationale of keeping the regime change activities in the Middle East and the FX markets going till they can get the sphere of influence more firmly established.

We need WB7 to make a stylized "Its on like Donkey Kong" image with Chinese characteristics applied as possible (very hard to do the facial features in 8/16 bit), but maybe some signage branding on his apparel. The most important thing will be to have Kong throwing barrels marked with the various currencies they can dump directly or indirectly  into any situation like this moving forward. Maybe have him sitting on a barrell marked "Au/Ag/rare earths."

Even the chinese are keynsians now. Maybe they'll get a nobel peace prize out of this. Beats the heck out of continuing to  financing americans I-Pods version n+1.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:22 | 1382568 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Sounds like a sure winner in the flagging gamer market.  Seek some royalties with WB7.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:37 | 1382588 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Naw. The only reason I was able to see so far was because I stood on the shoulders of giants like Ron Paul, Schiff, WB7, Tyler, Marla and all you folks.

And further along those lines, a very popular flash game published by ninjakiwi has monkeys, throwing metaphorical "darts" at ballons (market bubbles). The "currency/funding" in that game is produced by upgradable structures

Banana Farm->Banana plantation->Banana Republic -> Banan research Facility -> PhD!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:54 | 1382715 wisefool
wisefool's picture

What's with the junks? Tell me and I'll improve. I admitted that this issue is serious, and that my humor was mostly plagarized.

I only tucked it under robot traders thread cause I thought he is known here for some comedy relief.

And I meant "the on the shoulders" comment to relate to being a parrot, repeating, often out of context what smarter people have said before. Not in the Issac Newton sense.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:52 | 1382815 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Nah, dont worry about the junks, the junk botton is for spastics.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 22:33 | 1383586 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Indeed. Some think they must click it each time they play with their own (hence, some threads get sprayed with them). The Sunstein Sock Puppets™ use it to keep track of which posts they've read.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 19:44 | 1383260 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

People beleive many things, collecting a junk here and there means nothing. I have not noticed you being a troll, so I suggest ignoring it until you aquire a few more :)

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:01 | 1382728 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Ok traders, thats your cue to go long for a short term rally. RobotDouche just got all doom and gloom. Expect a base this week and the market to then push back above 1300.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:31 | 1382773 Orly
Orly's picture

I do so wish that commenters would get off Robo's back.

I can actually speak for myself in this regard, so I will:

He sticks his neck out, says what he sees and he calls it like he sees it.  In this market, it is very easy to look like a fool.  Overt manipulation doesn't necessarily make him wrong.

On the other hand, where's yours?  Monday-morning quarterback and suddenly you're Joe Montana?  Easy to shoot a 67 on Tiger Wood's Golf, now isn't it?  Put your ideas out there for all to see...

just once...

I dare you.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 19:02 | 1383173 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

many of us proud robottrader bashers have done exactly as you have requested, ad infinitum, namely to buy physical gold and silver.

respectfully, the poster known as robottrader as you must must have observed by now changes his mind from day to day and from post to post. he has no thesis in his investment strategy. he is chaff blowing in the wind in all directions according to the changing weather patterns from day to day.

robottrader is not a trader. he is a commenter. he doesn't trade. he doesn't stick his neck out. he reports yesterday's news. anybody can do that.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 19:18 | 1383194 Orly
Orly's picture

I appreciate the response, Leftenant.

I'll pay more attention to his posts if you say he is waffling.  I don't trade stocks, so I am not that keen on what he says.  I just hate to see someone with an opinion get bashed because we need more studied opinion on the boards, instead of...well, you know, all that other stuff.

You're right in that one should have a definite idea and stick with it, or at least admit when he's wrong and maybe explain why he was wrong.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 19:35 | 1383225 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

orly, another commenter (internet tough guy stands out), others and myself have copied and pasted his very words (not extrapolations of what we translated that he said) which change position, and without exaggeration, from post to post.

robottrader doesn't trade. he works contract processing 1099's for a small commercial bank in los angeles. he owns a few stocks such as mo, dd, vz and hd. i won't bore you with the details, although i could, but he is a fraud writ large upon the zh community.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 22:45 | 1383651 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

+100

Hear, Hear!

Words of Wisdom, regarding the Fraud commonly known as RobotTrader.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:17 | 1382862 Luke 21
Luke 21's picture

I would not bet against RoboTrader. He is one of the few who does not let his emotions influence his trading.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 22:48 | 1383661 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

RoboTrader is one of those whose Little Head rules his trading.

His Large Head is left behind.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 19:51 | 1383270 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

I am glad you post robot, many people consider that your views are wrong and seem to confuse that with trolling. I have been reading this site for some time and I have come to value your calls even if my opinion of how you get to them or the reason behind them differ from my own.  Your mindset is very different than most who post here and I am impressed that you continue on with your own dicipline in spite of massive booing. You don't have to be right to post here, but I can tell you even when I disagree with you I tend to learn something. That is all I require from others, further I feel your really trying to help and am impressed that you dont' stoop to the level of insult that is often dished at you.

 

Thank you for your posts :)

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 11:58 | 1382513 SMG
SMG's picture

I don't know how this is going to turn out, but I've just got this feeling in my gut this is the beginning of the next crisis phase.  

Wish I were an oligarch with a copy of the latest plan.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:29 | 1382575 Lionhead
Lionhead's picture

You give the oligarchs too much credit; they don't have a plan. They have "tools" to extend & pretend, but their original plan was a plan for failure. Any student of history, including the US, knows that issuing a Euro without absorbing the member states debt is a guaranteed fail.

Expect failure & have your plan in place. Remember, whilst these folk have power, it doesn't automatically give them any brains. They are dumb as bricks the lot of them. Their greed & hubris will defeat them as the tyrants they truly are.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:46 | 1382601 Djirk
Djirk's picture

Angela is fjuked either way. Bail out Greece and destroyed in the polls, let them fall and have a serious bank melt down.

C'mon Meine Liebe sneak out a few billion and lets run off to Panama.  

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:41 | 1382690 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Lionhead is correct. The power elite are far from intelligent.

In reality, their sociopathic way of life has led them through the ages to engage in the art of  inbreeding.  This is true not only of royal families, but also of behind-the-scenes players.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 18:45 | 1383150 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

+1

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 19:20 | 1383203 Reptil
Reptil's picture

+2

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 22:38 | 1383646 i-dog
i-dog's picture

+3

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:39 | 1382597 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

as an oligarch myself i give you my copy.  I've entitled it "the European Union's collapse:  Big Screen Version."  The banks are "that Death Star thingy."  I leave it to you to decide who the Emperor is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGMvadAFqLQ&feature=player_detailpage

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:06 | 1382633 SMG
SMG's picture

Somebody posted this in another Greece thread. Negro Primero I think.   Here's a great quote from that article:

Money is a commodity, invented to help people by facilitating transactions. It is not wealth in itself. Wealth is natural resources, water, food, land, education, skill, spirit, ingenuity, art. In those terms, the people of Greece are no poorer than they were two years ago. Neither are the people of Spain or Ireland or the UK. And yet, we are all being put through various levels of suffering, in order for numbers (representing money which never existed) to be transferred from one column of a spreadsheet to another.

This is why the matter concerns you directly. Because this is a battle between our right to self-determine, to demand a new political process, to be sovereign, and private corporate interests which appear determined to treat us like a herd, which only exists for their benefit. It is the battle against a system which ensures that those who fuck up, are never those that are punished – it is always the poorest, the most decent, the most hard-working that bear the brunt.  The Greeks have said “Enough is enough”. What do you say?

 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:54 | 1382708 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

+++ - BEAUTIFUL! Thats good stuff - viva La Revolucion!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:33 | 1382776 oldman
oldman's picture

I say do not a thing

take two weeks off and go fishing

call in sick and get paid for it

the powers that be will lose their power without we serfs

this does not have to be violent

it can be fun

no gofers no go              this has been true for the last 60 years and still we talk on and on and on--------------------------------------------------------------------------------and on

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 17:47 | 1383083 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

This should be reposted on its own thread as a quasi manifesto. 

 

I see it as a distallation of most of the posts and comments on ZH.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:10 | 1382841 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

I saw the plan. They are winding down major western currncies together and then issuing their own currency with their pics on it. It's more about the pix than the power I was told. On the bright side, there will be no tp or kindling shortage. 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:02 | 1382515 Trillax
Trillax's picture

It's like a retarded game of table tennis with a suitcase nuke...

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 20:10 | 1383310 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

So this would be like a ping pong ball... nuke. I suppose we are fucked when china gets to the table. Anyone have the tourney schedule? I need to work out worst case senario for time to get out of the building...

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:01 | 1382525 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Gee, I thought the Hun were really going to bail-out the deadbeats this time...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:04 | 1382531 shortus cynicus
shortus cynicus's picture

In the meantime: the German so called "supreme court" confirmed start of eu-bailout hearings on 5. July.

 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:24 | 1382573 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Is Roland Friesler still on the court?  That would be entertaining.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:10 | 1382540 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Really they just need to get on with it and monetize a good portion of the debt.

Then take the banks into custodianship.

Break them up and sell them back to the market fully capitalised and with better oversight.

If they carry on with this charade things will spiral out of their control.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:18 | 1382563 oogs66
oogs66's picture

first time i've agreed with you in awhile, but yes, take the haircuts on the sovereigns that can't pay, let the banks take the hits, take over the banks that are savable, but truly take them over, don't just prop them up so they can survive the downturn, then piss on all the people who saved them when (if) times get good again.

 

the debt needs to be cleaned up, losses need to be taken, then, and only then can we properly move forward. 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:34 | 1382569 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

And the same applies to the sovereigns.

Tidy up their balance sheets.

And then say you will not be getting another penny.

You're one your own. Now balance your budget.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:44 | 1382694 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Sounds easy when you say it. But if this were to be implemented it would mean bank runs. And we all know there ain't enough moolah in the banks. This would imply social unrest, violence, repression, heads rolling.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:26 | 1382765 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

It looks like either the banks get a haircut, or the people do. Has the next phase of the struggle between the two just started?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:26 | 1382769 murdomcsponge
murdomcsponge's picture

ogs66 and Wellington. Good stuff. Spot on!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:04 | 1382836 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

problem is "here's where the EU actually is right now":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuJ1fGAxMD0&feature=player_detailpage

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:09 | 1382544 misterc
misterc's picture

My call: Merkel's bluff will be called in parliament / CDU fraction.

CDU fraction is dumb, but not stupid. Merkel PROMISED a substantial compromise involving creditors. She blatantly LIED to her own fraction.

This will get very ugly. EURUSD will look like a earthquake chart next week.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 19:23 | 1383205 Reptil
Reptil's picture

Yes, and now they're backpaddling like crazy. Dutch ministers too.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:16 | 1382552 sunny
sunny's picture

Yes, indeed, we do live in interesting times.  At least it isn't boring.

sunny

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:18 | 1382559 russwinter
russwinter's picture

EuroZones Sudden Re-Definition of Default Will Roil The Markets

http://www.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=3990

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:42 | 1382594 Thomas
Thomas's picture

The waffling over the definition of default--let's call it a banana instead--is correct, IMO. Even the mainstream press is sensing this one. The dynamite juggling will have a predictable conclusion to it.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 20:13 | 1383323 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

Of course it does, jugglers will swap the dynomite with puppies and it will be  CUTE! wait... where those dynamite sticks? Wern't those fucking things lit? RUN!!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:16 | 1382753 unununium
unununium's picture

Great piece Russ, worth a read by everyone.  Any chance you will ever go back to a free ad-and-donation model? 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:18 | 1382560 navy62802
navy62802's picture

WWII part deaux, anyone? It feels like the longest period of continuous, widespread peace in Europe is quickly coming to an end. This kind of stuff is what real wars are fought over.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:19 | 1382561 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

And again for the "slow" ones, SHORT EVERYTHING NOW!!!...and go fishing! :))

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:21 | 1382562 AG BCN
AG BCN's picture

S&P, Fitch et al have their "default" statements ready on direct orders from the Fed, carnage will ensue and the US will look like the model of fiscal prudence whilst covertly conducting QE3.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:27 | 1382581 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I like the way you think

                  Sam Kinnison

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:24 | 1382574 hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

Well as long as there is no QE3 announcement I'm going to exchange my HUF to USD.

 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:26 | 1382576 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

...and man am I glad I left my short EUR/USD and /ES positions open...

now I just have to hope for no 11th hour surprises on the other side of the trade....

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:02 | 1382634 decon
decon's picture

I'm with you brother.  I opened a monster FAZ position late Friday and intended to monitor it closely with my usual late close out but because of exigent circumstances I was unable to close the position even in afterhours.  It's looking like it might be a serendipitous situation!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 20:12 | 1383333 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

Yep I left my shorts on too over the weekend, that took big brass balls. I am proud of myself... I hope :)

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:30 | 1382580 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Eyes Wide Shut:

The EU was so sure that nationalism was already a relic of the past. No one in the EU could have foreseen that German people would balk at ponying up as the EU backstop for every broke country in the EU. Mmmm...

Outside the EU echo chamber, there has already been speculation that Germany many eventually have no choice but to look Eastward and move closer to ally with Russia so they can ditch the EU freeloaders. Appearing more plausible with the EU going tits up.   

Another bad day for the NWO rollercoaster. 

 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:46 | 1382602 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Countless thousands predicted precisely this end game to the Euro. Whether it leads to conflict (monetary or other) is unknowable but the bettors and surely bellying up to the table.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:48 | 1382605 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Yeah I hope so.

NWO is global fascism.

The EU was a nice idea, until you find out what its real goals are.

And by whom it was dictated.

 

It was not the free will of the European people, but a Rockefeller / Kissinger construct.

Fuck em !!!

 

The promotion of peace is still a sensible and valid point.

The enslavement of nations by bankers is not.

To us Germans the EU was sold as a tool to cure the wounds of the past.

 

Helmut Kohl, always talking about "building the European house".

 

Shame on those who abused our well-meant intentions to ram through their globlist agenda through the backdoor.

Shame on them !

 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:16 | 1382659 HeadintheGame
HeadintheGame's picture

The "back door" is something bank(st)ers know a lot about.  Let's face it.  They have all the chips; get to leverage their falacious capital 10+ times; get their stupid decisions socialized to the masses and STILL they are a bunch of fucking losers.  I'd rather trust the future of the 'free world' to the guys who pick up my garbage every week--which is where most bankers would be working if there were no banks!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:20 | 1382866 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Germany needs to stop being the European whore, any1 who wants anything from Germans only need to mention the holocaust and Germans fall to their knees crying

regardless of whether you belive in the holocaust or not, enought is enough!

Germany is being flooded with 3rd world immigrants that go straight for a social security check, 80% of crime in Germany is perpetrated by foreigners the 3rd world turdlers don't give a shit about Germany's culture or language or contributing to the economy they are just here for a free ride, it's time to kick them out to whre they came from. And stop giving a blank check to the PIIGS

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:39 | 1382585 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I believe the solution to the Greek economy is to follow Jeff Coremelt's advice to the US: Reduce building permit red tape and make it easier for Chinese tourists to get Visas. 

This will expedite the construction of shopping malls where Chinese tourists can come to buy Chinese goods.

I suggest we ship Coremelt over there without further delay.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:44 | 1382599 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

The solution is default....

Banksters, we know their ambitions. People of PIIGS what are your ambitions debt slave or default to save yourself? A question in which the U.S. may want to ask themselves as well.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:58 | 1382625 Rainman
Rainman's picture

...subprime lending goes sovereign. I now see the sad irony of it all....option ARMs for entire countries.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:42 | 1382686 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

"...option ARMs for entire countries."

LOl...Yeah ARM's will set them free...perhaps with the appropriate spin the banks can sell it in the form of a new and improved MBS....

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:11 | 1382745 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Actually, with enough arms used well they may become free.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:58 | 1382916 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

....or a feast for the IMF.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SAi_n3_FVo

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:57 | 1382615 So Close
So Close's picture

Correct me if I am wrong...  In regards to how the US markets might move here....

In the up corner

QE3

Flight to "safety?"

Talking heads

 

In the down corner

Market turmoil in EU in general

Bank crisis contagion

End of QE2

Slowing growth

High unemployment

 

What am I missing?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:55 | 1382621 So Close
So Close's picture

And even though I don'y know you that well....  I have a purley platonic man crush on you Tyler.  :-)

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:43 | 1382799 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

In the up corner, only QE3 matters for equities. Flight to safety will help Treasuries, but that's all.

You named most of the stuff in the down corner, except for the one most important thing: crisis of confidence.

Once confidence is lost, it's 2008 all over again, but exponentially worse. There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 12:59 | 1382626 falak pema
falak pema's picture

punt punt punt...merkel and trichet...now heading for the moon... two who wont come back again this decade to euro zone... "Clean it up first...then we may consider it."

"Find yourself another european Obammy. We are of the Euro 'GWB/Greenspan' breed. Goodbye and good luck! Don't call us on the Moon, we'll call you."

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:00 | 1382627 partimer1
partimer1's picture

if we go down in the morning and back up, we may be at the bottom, and big rally can follow.  it can also fall apart and crash big time.  this is the critical time, right here, right now.  the house is burning, we either put out the fire, or we collapse in next 3 days. 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:09 | 1382640 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Anytime we get one of those headlines about a rescue package we know that is it meant only to juice markets and spin plates. That is all it has been and ever will be. When will people learn. You can always count on a Bullshit rumor from either the Fed or ECB each week just to give the markets a false sense of security. GTFO and never look back until the reset. 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 17:19 | 1383035 anony
anony's picture

i'd refine that a bit: the rumor is known beforehand to an inside informed cabal to provide a sure bet for them, to know how and where to bid, buy, or sell.

It's as close to minting as you can get with none of the hassle.

 

 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 20:22 | 1383349 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

Actually the quick pacework of the switcheroos do in fact have a bias. Too many switches too fast and people get scared, and that means DOWN. However this stuff isn't on Bloomberg much they still talking about the .1% GAIN in the SP500 and the stopping of the slump more than the stuff Tyler brings to us. I bet the big boys are noticing the liquidity thing though.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:13 | 1382644 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Also don't forget we have a Fed meeting coming up this week.  Shit's about to get real. 

Is there any chance at all that the Fed raises rates?  That would certainly spark the collapse that they need to start another round of QE. 

They could raise rates, send everything lower, then after the "failed debt ceiling meeting" we plunge to ES 400 or so, then all is clear for QE3+. 

I just don't see how they can even signal QE3 with oil above 90.  Gas has come down a bit but if oil jumps the price at the pump follows. 

Should be a very interesting week. 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 17:11 | 1382975 anony
anony's picture

Chance FED raises rates:  - 0 

Have been half a portfolio short for 2 years.  If FED raises rates, that would probably at least make a b/even, maybe even provide a 2% return over 730 days. Which is the very reason it won't happen. 

The cosmos has it out to get Anony's portfolio.  It will not permit me to make a profit, and little by little is taking my meager fortune away. I have done something immoral, illegal, unethical, odiferous, self-masturbatory or pornographic in several previous lives and have not yet learned what those transgressions are.  I suspect it has something to do with my driving which borders on the mortal Italian style, or even worse, the Ohio brainless, oblivious style.  Or it could be that I was gang-raped by a group of Amazonian wimmin, with bodacious ta-tas and must now pay for it for eternity.

Irregardless (sic) of the cause you would do well to bet against a rise in rates. Had you taken the opposite of my bets the last 3 years you would have long retired your keyboard, traded in your previous life for one of unparalleled luxury, surrounded by nubile young females (or whatever your proclivity) begging you for some attention.

 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 19:22 | 1383201 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Dude, I hear ya. We're kind of in the same boat, karma-wise. But, perhaps this is a test of patience, cause when this bitch blows up, it's gonna be epic. Would not want to be long equities, period. I know my patience has been tested, but hang in there and your shorts will pay off. If you haven't gone broke yet, you will be richly rewarded for your wisdom and patience, and the bad karma will be burned off.

So sayeth the prophet.

 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 20:41 | 1383399 anony
anony's picture

Down by 1/3, so if Fibonacci is right, I might yet........naw, that would be too kind of the universe.   But I found a quarter on the golf course last week.  Hope/despair, Hope/despair, Hope/despair....

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 20:25 | 1383362 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

I have been considering a senario where the expedature of political capitol on signaling QEIII before the debt ceiling debate might too high. I imagine Bernake might have got a call letting him know that if he makes that debt cieling debate any tougher to win they mill string him up.  If I were him I'd sell the political capitol of the market slide in return to save my banking masters with QE III. 

 

Further there is this little matter of needing bond buyers. I think that since we pumped over 700B to the euro banks we have gotten the pick of the survivors and the banks that will be destroyed. I cannot help but consider that destroying the ECB would install the IMF in power and lock those foreign banks into buying our bonds cheap cheap.  This is a currency war and we want hegemony. I cannot help but think that once France is spanked that the ECB is toast too. So France gets extra political power from the faction of the currency war that is not against the US but not explicitly with us.  Lots of guesswork and instinct there, just ideas.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:10 | 1382650 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Teutonic twat tweets titanic twits twilight.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:16 | 1382653 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Screw all the EU bullshit but will a liquidity event put Gold and Silver on sale for us here in the U.S.?

This is all I care about...the end game has been decided so it is simply down to how much an when to buy more "real money" with this shit in my bank account!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:13 | 1382654 kito
kito's picture

rock paper scissor and shoot............

 

best out of 3? no lets play best out of 7... 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:37 | 1382684 Dr Zaius
Dr Zaius's picture

So, this is bullish. Right?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:47 | 1382701 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Here we go with this fiscal discipline meme again.

The Euro crisis is primarily the result of core surplus countries that were unable to get into healthy fiscal debt ratios and thus exported truely  massive amounts of credit deposits to a weak periphery creating a malinvestment nightmare.

If Germany grew up and spent its money on a French scale nuclear programme and other capital intensive projects we would not be in this mess.

But it just wants to export its surplus savings into second world housing projects forever.

I suspect Germany is full of ex stasi-agents left over from the GDR days.

Its a Russian wet dream.

  

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:51 | 1382705 Dick Darlington
Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:51 | 1382709 oogs66
oogs66's picture

headline after headline coming out of Europe.  Every nation seems to want to say something, but clearly no agreement coming today :)

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 13:54 | 1382714 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

When I read the Der Spiegal Miester I get the sense that "Private Bondholders" are the equivalent of Primary Dealers in the US of A.

Is it possible that this will be a EU POMO event? And, that as soon as all eyes are off Greece the ECB will backend those bonds onto their balance sheets just like the FED does with Treasuries?

And, if that works smoothly, will this be the path taken for the rest of the PIIGS?

Is this the introduction of POMO style funding, or the backend work-around to allow the ECB to monetize debt via Dr. Evil's Preperation H plan?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:24 | 1382762 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

And, as far as Merkel is concerned, she didn't get to her position without being a team player when it comes to EU integration, ahem, Bilderberger.

Undoubtedly this whole thing was cooked up, like meth, way before Greece was invited to sit at the adult table. And, just like any drug dealer they continued to feed the drug debt to addicted Greeks.

Iceland was more than likely supposed to be the first victim of the EU boa constrictor, it managed to wiggle free from all IMF/ECB constraints. I doubt Greece will be as lucky.

I also doubt the good folks that brought us the EU will stand by and watch the whole project go down in flames. They have way too much invested in accomplishing their goals.

Unlike the Italians who could see the writing on the wall and capitulated to the Allies during WWII. The EU proginators, will, like the Nazi's, fight on till the bitter end, even if they have to watch Europe go up in flames.

Of course, these are just the opinions of a clickbaited crack monkey.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:22 | 1382729 Negro Primero
Negro Primero's picture

From "Keep Talking Greece"

"DER EURO IS DEAD – LET'S BURY IT!"

German weekly magazine DER SPIEGEL dedicates the front page of its Monday edition with a sophisticated funeral arrangement.  The coffin is covered with the Greek flag, the picture of the deceased shows the relatives’ deep mourning through a black ribbon. The Title reads: “Sudden and Expected -Obituary for a common currency”

http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/0,1518,ausg-4929,00.html

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:05 | 1382730 mt paul
mt paul's picture

Bavarian beavers 

building  debt dams 

across the Rhine river...

 

all is not lost...

yet....

 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 20:53 | 1383421 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Did you know the beavers number one cause of death is falling trees?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:19 | 1382750 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Looks like the German people see through the Bailout Scam. Merkle is history anyway but the scary issues are these Bailouts push more peope to the right extremem and set up another extreme political atmosphere....whena  country gets desperate there usually is some sort of major conflict, i.e., war.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:23 | 1382758 zippy_uk
zippy_uk's picture

If you were a German tax payer, what are your thoughts going to be on all this ?

You work hard, you pay your taxes, you may be skilled, creative or driven. Then your government decides to sponsor, for the second time a group of foreign, tax dodging, un-competative (not the same a lazy) populace who keep voting themselves social favours on borrowed money.

Are you happy about this ?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 22:30 | 1383629 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Another idiot comes out of the nazi closet. Must be really crowded in there, eh?

Come on and say it out loud already. What's your "final solution"? Send greeks to death in concentration camps and steal their gold&land?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:20 | 1382759 Akrunner907
Akrunner907's picture

Further guarantees that QE3 will move forward and be put in place to assist the bailout of the EU.  I guess all things are going according to the script. 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:31 | 1382770 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Give 'em script that can only be spent in Germany ? Tit for twat ? Monedas 2011 Greek Tragi-comic Amphitheatre Play

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:35 | 1382789 oldman
oldman's picture

Brilliant solution! I wonder why no one thought of this before you?

That will really make this a better cartoon-----thanks, Monedas

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 16:51 | 1382994 Monedas
Monedas's picture

I told you I was brilliant ! Well, it was a little tongue in cheek (my own cheek, thank you very much !) HOWEVER as Rush Limbaugh, our mentor, has taught us....humour must have a kernel of truth ! I'll bet that stupid Merkel bitch screws her own people worse than my little joke suggests ? They only fuck the producers....they don't know anything else ! Monedas 2011 Any takers ?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:35 | 1382780 George Costanza
George Costanza's picture

This is US subprime all over again.  The Greeks will be foreclosed out of their remaining assets, the banks will be kept whole by the government bail outs. The governments will protect the status quo.  There has to be a version of QE for Europe, print their way out of this.   Similar problems, similar solutions.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:43 | 1382804 JPG101
JPG101's picture

What would make a lot of sense is if the Euro was broken up into different currencies and called different names. Then all the different countries could come up with the idea of a commun currency all over again.

They could do this every 10 years or so?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:53 | 1382816 zippy_uk
zippy_uk's picture

Brilliant idea - I made good money of a contract to fix asset systems to be ready for the EURO.

Good money going back the other way I think...

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 14:59 | 1382820 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Its just another twist in the Merkel put.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:00 | 1382825 Slap That Taco
Slap That Taco's picture

YAWN.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:06 | 1382834 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i like those pictures of angela and sarko together.  they agreed before they agreed to diasagree.  they are just trying to freak china out to the max, of course and try to get these bonds cheaply, while they go into technical default before shooting straight up.  this will be known as The Great Firewall Of China Play.  

trust me. 

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:37 | 1382883 DCon
Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:12 | 1382844 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Greece is saved!  Greeced is fuked!  Greece is saved!  Greece if fuked.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 20:38 | 1383390 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Hard to keep up for sure.

Looks like germany might be tougher than i thought.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:09 | 1382848 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

139.50 then 132ish....without a doubt now.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 16:29 | 1382963 anony
anony's picture

Wanna bet?

God would never do that. She would make me too happy.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 15:20 | 1382865 jbc77
jbc77's picture

Only a few questions remain in just how this goes down. So what will the banking cartel do? For how many more days or months will the can be kicked? Fire up the Euro printing press I suppose. All goes back to owning hard assets now, primarily gold and silver than key consumables. I hope reality detached Americans would awaken from their slumber in time although American Idol is a power to be reckoned with.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 17:50 | 1383005 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Monedas is going to take a little nap...but he'll be back for the market opening after a quick rinse shower and a leaf blower drying ! In the other corner of the bathroom I'm thinking about putting my Sears Wet/Dry Shop-Vac....my own personal wind tunnel hygiene system ! Monedas 2011 No bitch can stop me now !

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 17:54 | 1383099 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Yeah I hope so.

NWO is global fascism.

"The EU was a nice idea, until you find out what its real goals are.

And by whom it was dictated.

 

It was not the free will of the European people, but a Rockefeller / Kissinger construct.

Fuck em !!!"

Just figured it needed repeating.....and repeating...and......

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 18:01 | 1383101 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Father's Day advice from Monedas to Greece: "Grow up and get a job ! Move out or start paying your room and board !". Greeks, take a look at your country on a map ! Yeah, it looks like a frayed udder flappin' in the breeze after a goat walked into an old German mine field ! So you still want war reparations ? Maybe that's the ticket ? It has a little more dignity than handouts ! Monedas 2011 Greek Comedy Armageddon Get It On !

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 18:14 | 1383117 Monedas
Monedas's picture

In the old days, if the Greeks got a little depressed, they'd eat some goat meat and drink ouzo then break the plates and smash the glasses ! Some of them were so depressed....they got married ! The work created for the potters and glass blowers would give a little Keynesian bump to the economy ! That ended when the Chinese flooded the market with cheap table ware ! Monedas 2011 The Chinese should be buyin' up some of that paper, after all !

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 18:16 | 1383119 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

In the endthe Neo -Facist ECB will declare Greece not in default even as it does thereby voiding any CDs contracts by decree.  Move along!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 20:39 | 1383385 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Wrong.

The ECB has no authority to declare compliance or default. That will be done by the credit rating agencies.

It doesnt matter what the ecb says or doesnt say.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 20:36 | 1383380 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

It is about time the germans put an end to greek nonsense.

kick them out of the euro, now. when an immature child cant handle a credit card the parent must cancel it.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 21:35 | 1383496 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

Isn't this all really Goldman Sachs' fault?

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 21:52 | 1383533 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

Just like the other "poster" said: just downgrade the whole world and get it over with!

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 22:31 | 1383625 daneskold
daneskold's picture

What an epic non-event.

 

Kick the can down the road.

 

EURUSD barely budged.

 

es swooned slightly, then right back to Friday's close.

 

SQUIRRELL!

 

Hah!  Made you look!

 

BTFD and get rich before the coming economic collapse that we've been warned about constantly for the last 30 years.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 22:38 | 1383639 Orly
Orly's picture

What is your opinion on how long they can keep it up, Dane?

It seems they're running their street-cred into the dirt pretty quick, when the credibility the public put into the banking system has been the glue that has kept us blind and gullible to their lies for lo these many years.

This suspension of disbelief is drying up fairly quickly all over the world, wouldn't you agree?

Mon, 06/20/2011 - 02:24 | 1384174 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

It keeps getting more and more expensive and they don't trust what the other banks are saying.

Mon, 06/20/2011 - 03:05 | 1384213 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

The Germans are trying their damndest to re-start WWII.

The Greeks won't let the Germans (of all people) shaft them again. Of all the people invaded by the Third Reich, the Greeks were the most ferocious in their gorilla activities.

Memories and hatreds run deep?

Mon, 06/20/2011 - 04:04 | 1384259 lucylary
lucylary's picture

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