Ceasefire Between Germany And ECB Has Expired: Greek Compromise Plan Now "Off The Table"

Tyler Durden's picture

The one catalyst which sent the EURUSD (and thus its first derivative, the SPX) surging on Friday was the Guardian story that Germany, Sarkozy and most importantly, the ECB, have reached a consensus over the form of the second Greek bailout. In the immediate aftermath, Greece, sensing European weakness, announced that it would seek to pass the Troica plan however with substantial changes, a development which prompted us to say that "now that Merkel has effectively thrown in the towel to her, and the
CDU's, political reign by agreeing with the ECB's and France's demands,
a move which will be brutalized by Der Spiegel in T minus 5 minutes,
the fact that Europe blinked to Greece's bluff, just may mean that every
demand out of Greece will be met." Well, sure enough here is Der Spiegel, however instead of seen as bending over to Greece, Germany appears to have had a dramatic change of heart, and told not only Greece to take its demands and shove them, but the ECB to go fornicate itself.

Per AFP: "A German compromise plan to resolve a dispute with the European Central Bank over the Greek rescue that was reported by Der Spiegel magazine is no longer on the table, a government source said Sunday. Der Spiegel had reported ahead of its Monday issue that the German finance ministry called for a beefed-up version of Europe's temporary bailout mechanism lending to Greek banks to insure they have adequate collateral with the ECB. Germany's share of guarantees would climb to 246 billion euros from 123 billion euros, according to the report. But a German official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that while "several options" were being debated to involve private creditors in an Athens rescue, the reported proposal was "no longer on the agenda". The source added that the initial plan had differed from the reported proposal in "key aspects". German officials say they seek a plan with as few "unwanted side effects" as possible." Naturally, key among these being the perception that German is a toothless power, happy to invite inflation now that wanton Euro printing will be the next step in the bailout chain of command. And so the ball is back in the ECB's court which will have to scramble once again to prevent Jean-Claude Jun(c)ker's greatest nightmare: the 20 big figure plunge in the EURUSD predicted by John Noyce earlier.

The ECB has repeatedly warned that requiring creditors to swap existing Greek debt for new bonds with longer maturities could amount to a default, something which could send shock waves through the European and global financial systems.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy agreed Friday to a plan through which private bondholders could volunteer to buy new government bonds to replace ones that matured.

This "rollover" option was favoured by the ECB and France, since it avoids the risk of rating agencies declaring Athens in default.

Germany had previously called for full-scale debt restructuring but Merkel appeared to back down after the meeting with Sarkozy.

Eurozone finance ministers were to meet in Luxembourg later Sunday for talks on saving Athens from default as early as next month.

Merkel said in a separate interview released Sunday that she was upbeat about the eurozone despite the Greek crisis.

"We are already far better equipped now in Europe," Merkel told Super Illu magazine, referring to austerity measures taken by debt-laden member states.

But she said the countries sharing the euro still had to work through "significant failures" and "sins of the past" in terms of fiscal discipline.

Merkel said Greece had "achieved a great deal in the last year -- we should recognise that".

Enjoy the remaining several hours of FX peace. War may be coming as soon as 5pm.

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bob_dabolina's picture

This is so funny. I'm gussing tomorrow it's back on.

cossack55's picture

Then off. Then on. Then off. Then on again. Then...oh , just screw it. 

Ahmeexnal's picture

European pipedreams always end in world wars.

Latin Monetary Union -> WWI

Thousand year empire -> WWII

EUROZONE  --------------> WWIII


It's not the EURUSD that will light the fuse.

It's the EURCHF.

Orly's picture

"It's not the EURUSD that will light the fuse.

It's the EURCHF."


Okay.  I'm intrigued.  Please explain.


Ahmeexnal's picture

TPTB have tried to cover the PIIGS flank.

But the Austrian flank has been left unattended. The EURCHF will blow up eastern european debt denominated in CHF. Austrian banks who hold the bag will burn.  Austria has mountains for sale.  When TSHTF, I'd like to buy me the Kahlenberg, as it will be available for a few PM coins worth.



Orly's picture

It was my understanding that the Eastern European debt had already been nationalised by the Austrian banks.

From mid-December 2009:

"Meanwhile, Austrian banks could face another €10bn in writedowns over the next two years, Austria’s central bank warned on Monday. Austrian banks have about €200bn of exposure to central and eastern Europe and have written down €15bn since the start of the crisis.

However, the big three lenders – UniCredit Bank Austria, Raiffeisen Zentralbank and Erste Group – have all remained profitable this year, in spite of making large loan-loss provisions."


The Swissie should reverse its nominal status as a world-reserve currency by the simple fact that they are surrounded by Europe and sell most of their goods to Europe.  Europe is in the tank, ergo Switzerland is in the tank.

Watch the GBPCHF and the USDCHF for what could be spectacular reversals.


Ahmeexnal's picture

Europe is in the tank, ergo Switzerland is in the tank.


Actually, the confederation prospered during WWII.  I'm sure they will benefit this time around as well.

Urban Redneck's picture

Switzerland JOIN the ECB (as in admit the ECB is a successful or viable model) - no thank you.

Fox Moulder's picture

Is there a news blackout on the riots/revolution in Spain?



(30 second ad at the beginning.)

ThoughtCriminal's picture

yep, as well as blackout of largest protests of economic "reforms" (read bankster directed thefts) in Czech Republic; Czech unions halt subways in Prague

you'll have to search for this story on your own, as new communist/fascist internet censorship laws of the USSA prevent linking to certain info sources

trentusa's picture

Would you mind please explaining to me why the spx is the first derivative of the EURUSD and the correlation thereof? I tried to google it and it didn't come up exactly immediately

Tom_333's picture

This post is good.Was that you Gonzo who wrote the piece? Love that clarity of language. Anyway - there seems to some who believe,based on TA that the worst is over.From an European perspective I do not feel that complacent.Next week should be interesting? BTW - if all organic bid goes away can the bot´s keep the index up anyway.Does anyone know what algos the bot´s are on. Do their programs exclude all posssibility of large-scale "events"?

masterinchancery's picture

Yes, Greece "had achieved a great deal"--i.e. they took the EU and IMF money and used it to pay their vast army of public officials and employees.  Time for a reload, ala Argentina.  Has Merkel lost her mind?

RobotTrader's picture

Will SPY gap down under the 200-day Monday morning?

Will the CRB Index fall apart?

Gap up in the USDX to break out over the previous highs?

10-yr. yield collapse to 2.90%?

Yep, sure feels like it.

Bears get ready to rumble!!!!

wisefool's picture

Not an expert, but based on my arbitrage of true experts here at ZH and the MSM .... (poor attempt humor only, not trolling or sarcasm)

The "come hither" techniques being used on china have worked. They will be there this week. They will inject huge amounts of soon to be worth(alot)less Euros and USD, with the rationale of keeping the regime change activities in the Middle East and the FX markets going till they can get the sphere of influence more firmly established.

We need WB7 to make a stylized "Its on like Donkey Kong" image with Chinese characteristics applied as possible (very hard to do the facial features in 8/16 bit), but maybe some signage branding on his apparel. The most important thing will be to have Kong throwing barrels marked with the various currencies they can dump directly or indirectly  into any situation like this moving forward. Maybe have him sitting on a barrell marked "Au/Ag/rare earths."

Even the chinese are keynsians now. Maybe they'll get a nobel peace prize out of this. Beats the heck out of continuing to  financing americans I-Pods version n+1.

cossack55's picture

Sounds like a sure winner in the flagging gamer market.  Seek some royalties with WB7.

wisefool's picture

Naw. The only reason I was able to see so far was because I stood on the shoulders of giants like Ron Paul, Schiff, WB7, Tyler, Marla and all you folks.

And further along those lines, a very popular flash game published by ninjakiwi has monkeys, throwing metaphorical "darts" at ballons (market bubbles). The "currency/funding" in that game is produced by upgradable structures

Banana Farm->Banana plantation->Banana Republic -> Banan research Facility -> PhD!

wisefool's picture

What's with the junks? Tell me and I'll improve. I admitted that this issue is serious, and that my humor was mostly plagarized.

I only tucked it under robot traders thread cause I thought he is known here for some comedy relief.

And I meant "the on the shoulders" comment to relate to being a parrot, repeating, often out of context what smarter people have said before. Not in the Issac Newton sense.

scratch_and_sniff's picture

Nah, dont worry about the junks, the junk botton is for spastics.

i-dog's picture

Indeed. Some think they must click it each time they play with their own (hence, some threads get sprayed with them). The Sunstein Sock Puppets™ use it to keep track of which posts they've read.

The Fonz's picture

People beleive many things, collecting a junk here and there means nothing. I have not noticed you being a troll, so I suggest ignoring it until you aquire a few more :)

equity_momo's picture

Ok traders, thats your cue to go long for a short term rally. RobotDouche just got all doom and gloom. Expect a base this week and the market to then push back above 1300.

Orly's picture

I do so wish that commenters would get off Robo's back.

I can actually speak for myself in this regard, so I will:

He sticks his neck out, says what he sees and he calls it like he sees it.  In this market, it is very easy to look like a fool.  Overt manipulation doesn't necessarily make him wrong.

On the other hand, where's yours?  Monday-morning quarterback and suddenly you're Joe Montana?  Easy to shoot a 67 on Tiger Wood's Golf, now isn't it?  Put your ideas out there for all to see...

just once...

I dare you.

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

many of us proud robottrader bashers have done exactly as you have requested, ad infinitum, namely to buy physical gold and silver.

respectfully, the poster known as robottrader as you must must have observed by now changes his mind from day to day and from post to post. he has no thesis in his investment strategy. he is chaff blowing in the wind in all directions according to the changing weather patterns from day to day.

robottrader is not a trader. he is a commenter. he doesn't trade. he doesn't stick his neck out. he reports yesterday's news. anybody can do that.

Orly's picture

I appreciate the response, Leftenant.

I'll pay more attention to his posts if you say he is waffling.  I don't trade stocks, so I am not that keen on what he says.  I just hate to see someone with an opinion get bashed because we need more studied opinion on the boards, instead of...well, you know, all that other stuff.

You're right in that one should have a definite idea and stick with it, or at least admit when he's wrong and maybe explain why he was wrong.

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

orly, another commenter (internet tough guy stands out), others and myself have copied and pasted his very words (not extrapolations of what we translated that he said) which change position, and without exaggeration, from post to post.

robottrader doesn't trade. he works contract processing 1099's for a small commercial bank in los angeles. he owns a few stocks such as mo, dd, vz and hd. i won't bore you with the details, although i could, but he is a fraud writ large upon the zh community.

Crisismode's picture


Hear, Hear!

Words of Wisdom, regarding the Fraud commonly known as RobotTrader.

Luke 21's picture

I would not bet against RoboTrader. He is one of the few who does not let his emotions influence his trading.

Crisismode's picture

RoboTrader is one of those whose Little Head rules his trading.

His Large Head is left behind.

The Fonz's picture

I am glad you post robot, many people consider that your views are wrong and seem to confuse that with trolling. I have been reading this site for some time and I have come to value your calls even if my opinion of how you get to them or the reason behind them differ from my own.  Your mindset is very different than most who post here and I am impressed that you continue on with your own dicipline in spite of massive booing. You don't have to be right to post here, but I can tell you even when I disagree with you I tend to learn something. That is all I require from others, further I feel your really trying to help and am impressed that you dont' stoop to the level of insult that is often dished at you.


Thank you for your posts :)

SMG's picture

I don't know how this is going to turn out, but I've just got this feeling in my gut this is the beginning of the next crisis phase.  

Wish I were an oligarch with a copy of the latest plan.

Lionhead's picture

You give the oligarchs too much credit; they don't have a plan. They have "tools" to extend & pretend, but their original plan was a plan for failure. Any student of history, including the US, knows that issuing a Euro without absorbing the member states debt is a guaranteed fail.

Expect failure & have your plan in place. Remember, whilst these folk have power, it doesn't automatically give them any brains. They are dumb as bricks the lot of them. Their greed & hubris will defeat them as the tyrants they truly are.

Djirk's picture

Angela is fjuked either way. Bail out Greece and destroyed in the polls, let them fall and have a serious bank melt down.

C'mon Meine Liebe sneak out a few billion and lets run off to Panama.  

Ahmeexnal's picture

Lionhead is correct. The power elite are far from intelligent.

In reality, their sociopathic way of life has led them through the ages to engage in the art of  inbreeding.  This is true not only of royal families, but also of behind-the-scenes players.

disabledvet's picture

as an oligarch myself i give you my copy.  I've entitled it "the European Union's collapse:  Big Screen Version."  The banks are "that Death Star thingy."  I leave it to you to decide who the Emperor is.


SMG's picture

Somebody posted this in another Greece thread. Negro Primero I think.   Here's a great quote from that article:

Money is a commodity, invented to help people by facilitating transactions. It is not wealth in itself. Wealth is natural resources, water, food, land, education, skill, spirit, ingenuity, art. In those terms, the people of Greece are no poorer than they were two years ago. Neither are the people of Spain or Ireland or the UK. And yet, we are all being put through various levels of suffering, in order for numbers (representing money which never existed) to be transferred from one column of a spreadsheet to another.

This is why the matter concerns you directly. Because this is a battle between our right to self-determine, to demand a new political process, to be sovereign, and private corporate interests which appear determined to treat us like a herd, which only exists for their benefit. It is the battle against a system which ensures that those who fuck up, are never those that are punished – it is always the poorest, the most decent, the most hard-working that bear the brunt.  The Greeks have said “Enough is enough”. What do you say?


Josh Randall's picture

+++ - BEAUTIFUL! Thats good stuff - viva La Revolucion!

oldman's picture

I say do not a thing

take two weeks off and go fishing

call in sick and get paid for it

the powers that be will lose their power without we serfs

this does not have to be violent

it can be fun

no gofers no go              this has been true for the last 60 years and still we talk on and on and on--------------------------------------------------------------------------------and on

Raymond K Hessel's picture

This should be reposted on its own thread as a quasi manifesto. 


I see it as a distallation of most of the posts and comments on ZH.

bigkahuna's picture

I saw the plan. They are winding down major western currncies together and then issuing their own currency with their pics on it. It's more about the pix than the power I was told. On the bright side, there will be no tp or kindling shortage. 

Trillax's picture

It's like a retarded game of table tennis with a suitcase nuke...

The Fonz's picture

So this would be like a ping pong ball... nuke. I suppose we are fucked when china gets to the table. Anyone have the tourney schedule? I need to work out worst case senario for time to get out of the building...

Reese Bobby's picture

Gee, I thought the Hun were really going to bail-out the deadbeats this time...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

shortus cynicus's picture

In the meantime: the German so called "supreme court" confirmed start of eu-bailout hearings on 5. July.


cossack55's picture

Is Roland Friesler still on the court?  That would be entertaining.