Centrist Think Tank Conducts Study, Finds US Default "Could" Push Country Into Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

And for today's second most surreal piece of news (the first being that Osama was a fan of RedTube and Adult Friend Finder, whose stock tumbled 25% after its IPO on news that such a loyal customer is now dead), we turn to Reuters which brings us news of a "report" by centrist think tank Third Wave, due out on Monday, which finds that "the United States
could plunge back into recession if inaction in Washington forced a debt
default, according to a new analysis that arrives as the country
reaches the legal limits of its borrowing authority....
Some 640,000 U.S. jobs would vanish, the housing
market's woes would deepen, stocks would fall and lending activity would
tighten if the country were unable to pay its bills, according to a
report by the centrist think tank Third Way due out on Monday." And yes,
first Dow Jones and now Reuters confirms what we have been warning all this week, namely that "the Treasury Department is expected to hit its
$14.3 trillion borrowing limit on Monday, making it unable to access the
bond markets again. Lawmakers from both parties say they won't approve a
further increase in borrowing authority without steps to keep debt
under control.
" Yet back to the topic at hand: which is that someone actually paid money to discover what will happen to America when it filed for bankruptcy. If this was a paper out of the San Fran Fed we understand, but private industry? If there is one margin hike we approve of it is for the CME to hike the margin to 1000% cash in trivial common sense BS.

And for those who don't have blood shooting out of their eye sockets at this point, here are the details of what the debtors prison circle of hell would look like for the US.

  • Treasury bonds would lose their aura of safety, leading to a half-point increase in their interest rates. That would push up the U.S. government borrowing cost once lending activity resumed, leading to a $10 billion increase in annual budget deficits over the short term.
  • The higher interest rates would ripple through the economy, causing gross domestic product to decrease by 1 percent and employers to shed 640,000 jobs.
  • Banks would curtail lending. Small businesses would have a harder time expanding and credit-card interest rates would rise. Student loans and car loans would become more expensive.
  • The S&P 500 stock index would lose 6.3 percent in value over three months, causing retirement portfolios to shrink, the report said, citing research by financial services firm Janney Montgomery Scott.
  • The U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency could be threatened as investors move cash to Swiss francs, Japanese yen, or Euros. That could boost U.S. exports but raise the cost of consumer goods like gasoline and electronics.
  • Home mortgage rates, which are tied to U.S. Treasury rates, would rise. Homebuyers taking out an average mortgage for a new home, currently $221,900, would pay an extra $24,738 over the life of the loan, dealing another blow to an already struggling housing market.

"Defaulting on our debt is not an abstract idea that might affect a few institutions on Wall Street; it would harm tens of millions of Americans in profound and lasting ways," the report says.

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anonymous_user_000001's picture

Is this a joke?  The stock mkt would gingerly lose 6% over a three month period if the US defaulted?  Uh, yeah, I'll take the under on that.

6 String's picture

In the 90s the stock market went up when the U.S. defaulted. Stupid, eh? You just gotta love arbitrary numbers pulled out of a hat too: 6%, 640,000 jobs plus 1, etc.

But, sure, why not? No one is going to be afraid to EVER own stocks again since 1% declines are not allowed, 6% is off the fucking table.

What a circus show.

Landrew's picture

I don't believe the U.S. Treasury ever defaulted. If you mean the government shutdown yes. However during that time all debts were paid. New debt was issued. The debt ceiling has never failed to be raised.

Popo's picture

So...I'm trying to understand the think tank's position... If we stop borrowing from ourselves, we're in danger of running out of play-money. Did I get that right?

onthesquare's picture

Most people are forgetting the money the government saved in killling Bin Laden; His $25 million bounty.

He was killed by an American soldier so there is no pay off. The governmnet has an extra $25 million.

With saving like these the defishit will be gone in no time.

Happy daze.

A Nanny Moose's picture

Spend billions, to find a guy, to kill him to save $25 million. Looking back, even $100 million bounty would have been a bargain.

Still, it begs the question, as to why nobody ever came to knocking on OBL's door to collect?

Cleanclog's picture

1 US soldier in Afghanistan for 1 year =$1.2 million in US expense ($300-400,000 in costs associated with energy to get soldier there, move around, feed and eat).  How many soldiers, how many years?  That doesn't include the fake 9/11 response in Iraq.

jeff montanye's picture

like the 6% decline, the 50 basis point yield backup seems "conservative".

anonymous_user_000001's picture

Agreed, the U.S. didn't default in the 90's. If you want to see what happens to an equity market when a sovereign defaults, look at Russia in 1998.


I think the US market would be down more like 60%-80% than 6%.

weinerdog43's picture

"Centrist" think tank is bullshit.  This is a neo liberal goof ball organization that thinks offshoring is great and the war in iraq/afghan/libya, etc... is great.  It is not 'Centrist' unless you think the Fed is fantastic.  Screw this report.

Popo's picture

And Russia is a great example of how *not* fucked a country can be after defaulting.   A couple years later they were kicking ass.

Milestones's picture

By chance is the author's name Henney Penney??     Milestones

camaro68ss's picture

This is bullish then right? Should i buy Netflix now?

bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

AMZN puts up the ying yang over here.

jus_lite_reading's picture


"Overturning a common law dating back to the English Magna Carta of 1215, the Indiana Supreme Court ruled Thursday that Hoosiers have no right to resist unlawful police entry into their homes."

OHHH SHIIIIT! TPTB have lost control!!!


ursus.peracto's picture

Damn. I knew I should have kept those Claymores hanging around for a rainy day!

cossack55's picture

There are some nice "perimeter defense" items for sale on the net using trip wires and 12 gauge rounds. They send you a blank with the device. I guess you can reload with sabot or ooBK.

1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Equipment check.. The time to lock & load draws nearer by the day..

Coldfire's picture

The ruling is a consistent extension of the 20th century erosion of the Fourth Amendment (cf. the faux "War on Drugs"), but it clearly violates the Fourth Amendment proper. It will be overturned, if appealed, on the dissent's basis.


jeff montanye's picture

imo you are an optimist; i hope you're right.

cossack55's picture

Another reason to "Vote for Mitch in 2012".  Little sawed-off shithead.

Urban Redneck's picture

The legislature can return the right to the people, bitch slap the justices, and corner the governor in a single move.  Will the people demand action by their legislators?   

trav7777's picture

this is odd because the SCOTUS has ruled that there is a right to resist unlawful arrest, even by deadly force.  Several state courts have so ruled as well.

This notion that you can just arbitrate all this crap post-facto through the courts is bullshit.  The police will fucking lie their asses clean off

onthesquare's picture

a right to resist an unlawful police entry into a home is against public policy and is incompatible with modern Fourth Amendment jurisprudence

The cop is breaking the law ergo "unlawful"

When is a cop not a cop? When he/she breaks the law.

Your actions to defend are against public policy; POLICY has no place in a court. Courts only look at written law and maybe regulations. Policy is not passed by governments.

Actually this is more of a statement against cops and their past practice of planting evidence to support their actions.

Or I watch too much TV.

ColonelCooper's picture

Just one more little nitpicking, back of the neck hair tweaking, grab you by the left nut and give a quick squeeze just to make sure you know who's really in charge, infringement of personal property rights. 

One puff of wind on a smoldering fire.

It is little events like this that are going to result in this entire country going up in flames.  Someday, the wrong fucking guy is going to get pushed just a little too far, and a city block or two is going to look like Beirut.

Keep fucking pushing.

serotonindumptruck's picture

Only when that guy has nothing left to lose except his life. There may be quite a few of these people already.

BTW, I recommend a high-power/magnum rifle for such endeavors. Virtually all body armor is useless against such muzzle velocity.

NOTW777's picture

i think this was written by timmy

Silver Bug's picture

Could push the US into a recession?? what is this nonsense hah, we are already in a depression!



TheTmfreak's picture

So that means we should celebrate because our situation would IMPROVE!

Go ahead and default then woooooo!!!

Sudden Debt's picture

TO  BOLDLY GO WHERE.... so many others have gone before....



magpie's picture

There is only one rule, to default first is to default best.

(Motto on the new Drachma Notes)

wandstrasse's picture

statement during the Titanic sinking process: If the Titanic sinks, the clothes of some passengers could get wet.

White.Star.Line's picture

This could very close to the sinking of 1912.
You either came out of it a bit wet, or drowned.

Mec-sick-o's picture

Please restrain from wearing wool.  Prewashed cotton only.

Thomas's picture

I bet rocket surgeons don't come cheap.

King_of_simpletons's picture

"Defaulting on our debt is not an abstract idea that might affect a few institutions on Wall Street; it would harm tens of millions of Americans in profound and lasting ways," the report says.


What tens of millions are we talking about here ... ? Tens of millions of Americans are already in the shitter....


ursus.peracto's picture

If the disease won't kill you, the cure probably will.

Atch Logan's picture

WTF,I thought we were already in Recession???

Keri at Bankster Report's picture

No, no, no.  Blinder told us last year he "ended the recession," and that is why we need QE3 right away.


Dr. Engali's picture

And the world will blow up and we all will be dead.

NOTW777's picture

ha - raise the debt ceiling or we'll start bombing

ursus.peracto's picture

We could nuke ourselves. That could be bullish.

docj's picture

Yea - that's a tad more subtle that "Raise the debt limit or we start skinning puppies on live network television", but same sentiment, really.

clymer's picture

redtube? he was getting that kind of bandwidth in a cave in Pakistan?