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Cesar Chavez Day And Easter (For Second Week) At Fault For Latest Initial Jobless Claims Disappointment
Jobless claims missed consensus for the second week in a row, coming it at 484,000, 44k worse than expected, 24k worse than the week before, and the worst since February 20. Of course, the B(L)S has to provide a narrative for why the economy is not performing as expected by the propagandorium: and this week's explanation is hilarious. A Labor Department economist said Thursday that this latest rise can also be pegged to lag effects from the spring holidays including Easter and Cesar Chavez Day, which is celebrated in worker-heavy California, and blamed the increase on technical factors and not on rising layoffs. This is now the second week that Easter has gotten blamed for deteriorating economic data. Easter was also blamed for the delay in Greek bonds a few weeks ago (those particular investors now wish they had just slept in through the day they were getting their allocated share). As for initital claims, the four-week moving average, which aims to smooth volatility in the data to help paint a better picture of the underlying trend, also rose for the week ended April 10. The Labor Department said the four-week moving average went up by 7,500 to 457,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 450,250. Continuing claims also increased by 73,000 to 4,639,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,566,000. And while Extended Benefits declined by 99,716, Emergency claims increased by 261,817 to 5.855 million.
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I actually had the first "normal" person (meaning someone who doesn't comb blogs looking for details on "reported" information) tell me the other day that "everything on the news and in the paper is propaganda. With the introduction of Cesar Chavez day, I am pretty sure we are reaching a pinnacle of something.
no more holidays until Memorial Day, or does Cinco de Mayo count?
When is Guy Fawkes Day? That will have a serious upward impact on initial claims on the northern border states.
I think there is a royal wedding in June.... in Sweden
Of course it counts!
You forgot about May 1 (for all our Marxist friends out there). It's sure to drag down the numbers in Cali.
Or a nadir...
Cesar Chavez Day? was I knocked the fuck out for the past 30 years or is this still America where people like that are deemed unworthy of celebration on their behalf. wtf?
UGrev: I kind of feel as if all of us have been knocked out for that long. The absurdity doesn't stop, but my guess is that it will hopefully turn around in the next few months to few years. Let's hope and try to make sure there is something left of the country on the other side when it does.
"Let's hope and try to make sure there is something left of the country on the other side when it does."
What do you propose you personally can or will do to "try to make sure there is something left of the country".
Do you think there is a "other side" and if so please describe.
I'm assuming your assuming there is because you said "when it does." What makes you so sure and again, please describe? I think there are plenty of things we all can do but it requires that we get our hands dirty.
I'm not beating you up, just asking if you have something concrete to propose or is this wishful thinking?
Good questions, fair questions, and they need to be asked/answered:
- Start with ourselves. Ensure you are conducting yourself in life, in business, in any family/social setting, with the highest level of integrity (God knows we need quality traits to pass to the next generation or we are seriously fucked)
- Treat others as you would be treated
- Go out of your way to help those that are in need. Whether it be in need of your time, your experience, your advice (I don't necessarily mean money) give your time, spread the love
- Take time off work, spend it with your family.
- Live a frugal life, free of material attachments
- Be present, here, now. Pay attention, don't walk down the street hacking away on your I-Phone charging through pedestrians, hold the door for people, give up a cab for a woman, stand up for the elderly. Basic shit.
Just some basic stuff that everybody already knows, that we somehow need to keep in our conscious, everyday existence.
Thank you for your thoughtful comment. It does indeed begin within us. And this is precisely why TPTB wish to divide and disempower us, so that we don't discover that all (and I mean ALL) of the power of the multiverse lay within.
We simply need to go looking, which so many people have been conditioned to believe is extremely difficult and frightening. In reality, this journey is the single most rewarding journey we will ever conduct on a personal and/or social level.
Thank you again.
CD
I respect your opinion and most of what you write I agree with. Not that you need my endorsement, but just to let you know where I stand.
If we wait for the major part of society to come to these realizations then we will be waiting a long time. It didn't happen over night (our systematic dumbing down or brainwashing) and it will not be overcome quickly. The point is movements (MLK, Ghandi, ect..) aren't reliant on self awareness but rather unity and injustices. I would suggest any measure that inflicts damage on their revenue (legal) for starters.
by Cognitive Dissonance
*Gag* Thank you Oprah.
I, for one, will be heading out to the protest soon with my sign. I don't care if people call me names, and I don't care who I have to stand beside. It is imperative that the government start reducing its spending now, and return to a system that rewards hard work and honesty or else our future is very bleak indeed. As one person, I may not be able to do much, but so help me, when it's over, nobody will say I stood by silently and let it happen. No way will they say that about me.
Brother, not a day goes by that I don't try to learn something new so I can survive on that side if/when it happens. Call me preparednoid. I am not a market master by any means but I sure as hell am tired of not understanding it mainly because my ass can't take any more of this. The absurdity is out of control.. good becomes bad, bad becomes good.. I'm just beside myself with bewilderment at what has gone down and what is going down right now.
You guys/gals here on this site have enlightened me (market wise) quite a bit. I can't say that I follow it all and I've googled more stuff after hanging here for 30 minutes than I do when I'm trying to look for code examples on MSDN in a full weeks time. You guys make my head hurt and there's just not enough time in the day to catch up with you all. My hats off to you!
Get a copy of "Wall Street Words" by David L Scott. Excellent book
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=wall+street+words
My sentiments exactly, UGrev. I'm doing my damndest to figure it out, and ZH helps me feel like I'm doing my due diligence.
But at the end of each day recently, I'm left with my Kipling: "You are standing at the center of a gigantic PRACTICAL JOKE. Best to enter the spirit of it, and jest temperately."
To the left you see an open door.
>> look right
To the left you see an open door.
>> look right, damnit
To the left you see an open door.
>>I hate you Zork.. look to your other left
To the right you see the left which is an open door.
>>Look in bag
The bag is empty
>>put bag through door
The bag is taken by a gnome who calls himself the bank master.
>>quit
Are you sure you want to quit?
>>yes
You can't quit. The bank master won't let you..
CTRL+ALT+DEL
Ahhh....
Name is anagram of Grue V ing???
LOL??!!!
UGrev:
My hope is that there is something left of a functioning society on the other side, as well as something left of a functioning economy (the two are not independent). Of course, it doesn't look good now, but the first step is to identify the problem.
The dog ate my homework
"Cesar Chavez Day? was I knocked the fuck out for the past 30 years."
Yes you were. This year more "minority" will be born in the USA than "white" babies.:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/10/more-minority-babies-will_n_492...
Just reporting the news.....
This wouldn't be news at all if we all thought of ourselves as Americans. Unfortunately, we've spent the last 50 years rebuilding the walls from Europe within our own country.
Are you referring to the last amnesty push, when citizenship was demanded by those waving the flags of their homeland?
You've got to be a little careful of racial statistics. A child of a white parent and a hispanic parent is considered hispanic. A child of a white parent and a black parent is considered black. The only kids considered "white" are those of exclusively white parents.
Cesar Chavez day?!?! This is hilarious, if it weren't so pathetic...
In a University town in Cali... 98% white, the only people of Mexican decent are professors, phd's and some undergrads...
They renamed one of the elementary school "Cesar Chavez" and painted it pinata pink....
Cesar Chavez Day!?!?
The absurdity of blaming that for anything can only be exceeded if a poor jobs report in September is attributed to international talk like a pirate day.
Arrrrrrgh.
Where's the quote though? It's not anywhere I can see in the press release and the only other reference I could find to it was on other blogs. Never attributed to anyone specifically though...
WSJ etc have the quote, but they all say "the economist said..." or similar.
I'm guessing that they drew straws at the BLS to decide who had to pronounce that BS, but nobody wanted their name associated with it.
Pirate day! Fuck YEAH!
Oh yeah, Cesar Chavez Day and other "technical factors" are responsible for this 10% miss on Funemployment.
Comedy gold, that.
It seems that the justifications, qualifications, and outright excuses are becoming more and more absurd. I suppose if you say anything with conviction and perceived authority, and if you remain consistent in your message regardless of incredulity, you can persuade a lot of the people a lot of the time. The propoganda machines are truly in high gear which may be an indication of just how bad things may yet get.
"It seems that the justifications, qualifications, and outright excuses are becoming more and more absurd."
Wm the Shrubber,
I'm not pointing a finger at you, merely using your comment to make a point.
I understand the desire to blame the propaganda machines. We all have a tendency to fixate upon the source of the flames. But no one is strapping us to our seats in front of the computer or TV, tooth picks holding the eye lids from closing, as the propaganda is force fed into our brains. We are not helpless in the face of this propaganda, though we act as if we are.
We need to look at who is accepting, and then acting upon, the propaganda if we are to change. It all starts within those 5 inches between the ears, directly behind the eyes. I'm amazed sometimes how some people here on ZH can claim to be awake and aware and then spout some nonsense that's been programmed into them without a second thought.
People, we need to stop pointing fingers at others and take care of business at home.
CD,
Could not agree with you more on what you are saying. I read and enjoy ZH because I am in the Financial Biz and can not stand one more second of CNBC. The educations is great and I appreciate all the posts and comments that are well thought out either serious or humorous. That being said, a list of a couple things you can do; help someone, spend time with your kids, turn off the TV, plant a garden, grow something of use, work with your hands, spoil your husband/wife, volunteer, teach something, mentor someone, take a class, be mentored, learn to eat healthy. Take a minute and stop starring at your bank/brokerage account values or your hoard of gold and silver coins and do SOMETHING besides bitch and complain on a blog. I could go on but those are just my musings this morning.
Have a great day and thanks for putting up comments that move an actual discussion or idea forward, it is much appreciated.
484K people are now allowed to sit on their behinds for the next 1,900 days and collect unemployment, live in their foreclosed home and spend their money on iPads, iPhones, $300 jeans and beer.
I'm jealous.
+1
Damn you Cesar Chavez! Damn you Easter Bunny! When will your tyrranical grip on our economy be broken?
We only need to look to May Day for the proletariat to get their day and steal the glory from the easter bunny. No doubt, this will result in a downward revision in job numbers as well.
what about Pablo Escobar day?
What about "talk like a pirate" day ???
Or "Fist Bump" day.
Actually, today is National High Five Day. http://www.nationalhighfiveday.com/
That's gonna skew next week's report.
reminds me of,
Wes Mantooth: That's completely uncalled for, Burgundy. You know those rating systems are flawed. They don't take in account houses that have, uh, more than two television sets, and other things of that nature.
I guess I have to take your word for it....Number Two.
I wonder how long it will be before the BLS resorts to blaming TV shows (such as a popular episode of Dancing with the Stars) for high jobless claims.
Don't forget Festivus Day, Apr. 23.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Festivus
A Festivus for the rest of us, got to love it ;)
UNEXPECTEDLY??????????????
Not for ZH readers
Cesar Chavez?!?!?!? Who the fuck is Cesar Chavez and why is he diddling with my statistics?!?!?!?
Cesar Chavez IS the All Amerikan Story
He came here broke. Organized labor. Collected dues. Installed his family in all the key union posts and lived like a semi-king on the proceeds while being an artificial symbol.
" why is he diddling with my statistics?!?!?!?"
According to the BLS Household Survey
If you are unemployed, know who Chavez is in the last 4 weeks, then you are marginally attached and no longer counted as unemployed by U3...
See, it is simple B(L)S logic...
Actually two weeks in a row they've blamed poor Cesar. Can we get three or maybe in the monthly report as well?
So let me get this straight, if I take a day off for a holiday, lets say it is " get screwed financially day", I can apply for unemployment benefits.These people are fuking insane, who believes this crap.
Can someone explain to me how taking a day off can raise new unemployment claims? Doesn't one have to be unemployed for at least one week before eligibility? I gon't get it.
"Can someone explain to me how taking a day off can raise new unemployment claims? "
Easy... State workers had CC day off. Therefore they only had 4 days to pick their ass instead of 5 the last week of March.
Sooooooo, all those claims that would have been filed on that day last month are filed this month...
Orrrrrrrrrr, what that really means is the claims were filed but not processed. I get it. Calling them not filed doesn't shine the light on the state for not keeping up. Makes sense.
LOL. It ain't official until a state employee yawns and rubber stamps it...
don't
I'm going to boycott grapes untill all the jobs come back!
Didn't they mean Hugo Chavez day? It would have the same credibility.
I lol'd
++
Who knows the way this government is operating, next year Hugo Chavez day maybe on the calendar.
Oh, man. If Chavez Day and Easter can do this much after just two days, what's gonna happen during Lymphoma Awarness Month?
I blame all my problems on the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy. Sorry... I didn't know it was contagious.
On the other hand, I guess the death of free markets is a technical factor. All in how you look at it.
Nothing is ever good nor bad, but thinking makes it so. - Shakespeare
Is he a boxer? Shouldn't they at least blame it on an MMA fighter? This is 2010.
Was the B(L)S citing such ridiculous events this time last year or the year before? Pretty sure I know the answer, but just wanted to confirm...
Bastille Day, just wait and see what that does to France!
next week they'll be using the tax day protests, after this week pretending they don't exist.
From the WSJ:
>A Labor Department economist said Thursday that this latest rise [in unemployment claims] can also be pegged to lag effects from the spring holidays including Easter and Cesar Chavez Day, which is celebrated in worker-heavy California.
And...
>The largest increase in initial claims for the week ended April 3 occurred in Pennsylvania due to layoffs in construction, service, food and transportation sectors. New Jersey, Illinois, Ohio, and Washington also saw increases in claims. The largest decreases occurred in Texas, California, Florida, North Carolina and Puerto Rico.
So the rise in initial unemployment claims is attributed, in part, to celebrating Cesar Chavez Day in California, yet California experienced one of the largest DECREASES in initial claims.
Who's the tool here?
I get a mental image of Bullwinkle, "look, nothin up my sleeve." I cannot believe they have the balls to even suggest that a cesar chavez day had anything to do with this.
Any excuse except the truth seems to work for them.
Cesar Chavez Day! Ban he!
Seriously, what? We went to all this trouble for Daylight Savings for an hour here and there, but we lose whole months of workers because of a holiday I have never heard of before. Amazing!
I'm looking forward to the next IJC report ... either up or down, they will blame it on Tax Day
So national unemployment figures increased because California figures decreased by almost 3000?
No wonder that we've always been at war with Eastasia!
If cost cutting, ergo layoffs, is in part what is driving the "better than expected" earnings, then why would anyone think the publicly traded corporations would let off the gas on this trend? It makes sense to me that layoffs are continuing and productivity is increasing with the remaining workers left in the workforce as this is in part what is driving earnings....if it a'int broke then why try to fix it?
Propoganda Ministry full speed ahead.
They have no shame, nobody questions their authority..sounds alot like a dictatorship.
Ach Tung baby! Get out and vote.
The odd thing is that when you ignore the reality and simply crunch the numbers according to economic velocity, these snow days, holidays, etc. are actually starting to have an observable impact on the figures.
The "science" has nearly completely de-coupled from reality at this point.
SO let me get it straight, is anyone in their sane mind trying to call a potential low 400 (or even 300, not that we ve seen in in the last 3 years) a f. recovery? Are they mad? Is the stupid new normal?
In 2001-02 anything over 300 would make investors and pundits run for the hills & seek cover.
ok ok....so there is an obvious whistleblower in the BLS.
They are sending out coded messages in the employment level cause clause (har!) that can NOT be taken seriously by sane people and thus are blowing the whistle on the fact that all of the data is fraudulent.
I don't think that you can blame the consensus estimate for being too low. After all, who saw Easter coming?
Next Week's Excuse posted on Barrons:
"The department is warning the next report may be affected by quarter-end reclassifications for emergency compensation, but that the chances for downward revisions are greater than for upward revisions."
CESAR CHAVEZ, Must be recognized! To hell with accurate reporting. You Americans are just going to have to realize that we demand a party for Cesar with a two week maybe more hangover!
I walked in, the band just started,
The singer couldn't carry a tune in a bucket.
Was on a mission to drown her memory but,
I thought no wayway with all this ruccus.
But after one round with Cesar Chavez,
I cough my boots tapping along with the beat.
And after two rounds with Cesar Chavez,
the band was sounding pretty darn good to me.
Then some stranger asked me to dance,
And i reavealed to her, my two left feet.
Said: "Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you asked,
"but tonights about me an' an old memory."
Then after three rounds with Cesar Chavez,
I let her lead me out on the floor.
And after four rounds with Cesar Chavez,
I was shoing off moves never seen before.
Well, round five or round six,
I forgot what i came to forget.
After rpund seven, or was it eight?
I bought a round for the whole dang place.
And after nine rounds with Cesar Chavez,
They were counting me out and i was about to give in,
Then after ten rounds with Cesar Chavez,,
I lost count and started counting again.
One round with Cesar Chavez.
I went two rounds with Cesar Chavez.
Three rounds with Cesar Chavez.
(Fade out.)
Six rounds with Cesar Chavez.
Eight rounds with Cesar Chavez.