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CFTC Weekly Options Update: Specs Get Drop In 10 Year Perfectly Wrong
Once again option speculators confirm they are nothing but macro momentum chasing lemmings who never anticipate an inflection point until it is well in the rear-view mirror. Last week's CFTC data, which was released with a delay today, due to Veterans' Day, shows that after the reflation trade appeared to be peaking in the past two weeks, so has non-commercial spec demand for commodities, all of which were virtually unchanged from the prior week.
In currencies, we saw a resumption of the same old, with the brief renaissance in the USD tapering, and net positions once again declining toward a short bias. CHF sentiment was flat, JPY was down, while the GBP was up: in essence mimicking the actions in the underlying.
And the most important chart which we believe is the UST spec distribution by 2/5/10Y, showed that bets for a decline in the 2 year accelerated, the 5 Year was flat, and speculation that the 10 Y would strengthen increased: precisely the opposite of what has since happened, even as expectations that the UST curve would continue surging near 2010 highs.
Here are additional CFTC charts courtesy of Libanman futures (traditional and financial).
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Wonder how many billions PIMCO lost today???
Poor Mohammed "Sugar High" El-Erian was probably found offsides by being in bonds instead of stocks this week.....
Is JPM bankrupt yet?
I'm gonna laugh my azz off if the stock explodes to the upside...... what a crazy world we live in. :D
"Is JPM bankrupt yet?"
Haw,Haw.
Not yet, no. On the other hand collection agencies must be calling you daily regarding your credibility, Dick:
"by Bigger Dickuson Thu, 10/21/2010 - 11:51
#667153
Gold priced in euros looks very bad in technical terms. We will revisit $1100 early next year before setting new highs" <emphasis mine>
Really? Hunh.
Yes, the technicals still look bad. Have you been copying and pasting all my comments into a word document? I am flattered.
Even I had forgotten about that comment
Yes, your TA still looks bad.
FWIW: it took me less than 10s to locate such an egregiously incorrect call of yours to illustrate this, which is hardly a compliment, so don't be too flattered.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZO4cqJ5IGro
"...see how that works?"
Regards
....... Aaaand the dollar longs roll over. How very interesting ........... :D
Yep and the Euro's been on a nice steady climb off its early lows.
Does not compute. What's high in the middle and round on both sides?
http://blogfiles.wfmu.org/JI/Guinea_Worms_-_Hello_from_Ohio.mp3
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thx for the charts!
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