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Chanos vs. China?

Leo Kolivakis's picture




 

Via Pension Pulse.

Svea Herbst-Bayliss and Matthew Goldstein of Reuters report, Top hedge fund chiefs: short green tech, store gems:

Bet
against solar energy, says famed short seller James Chanos. Squirrel
away gems, advises bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach. Go long on discount
retailer Family Dollar, counsels activist investor Bill Ackman.


 

These
and other hot -- or unusual -- ideas emerged on Wednesday from an
annual conference where top hedge fund managers pitch their best
investment ideas.

 

Chanos
threw cold water on alternative energy companies, saying that shares
in wind turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems and solar panel maker First
Solar Inc likely will fall.

 

Arguing
that alternative energy may not create the jobs politicians predict,
Chanos said he would likely offend the green movement with his bets.

 

"The
cost of wind is 50 percent more expensive than natural gas," Chanos
said, adding that Denmark-based Vestas would be a good company to bet
against or sell short.

 

The environmental benefits of solar power are also questionable, he said.

Chanos
said he is certain that he is on the right path on First Solar because
top managers are leaving the company. "We advise you to heed their
warnings," he said, drawing both applause and laughter.

 

Ackman,
who has cemented his reputation as a polite activist, said his new
idea is on the passive side -- indeed it is not even his own, but
investor Nelson Peltz's idea. He likes retailer Family Dollar Stores
Inc for being accessible to shoppers and selling unique and inexpensive
products.

 

While lagging behind
chief rival Dollar General, its managers are trying to close the gap,
and the company may be a buyout candidate for private equity firms, he
said.

 

Retailers seem to be popular.
HSN Inc which runs a home shopping television network, rose 5.3
percent after KKR's Bob Howard recommended it. Crosstex Energy Inc
shares rose 11.3 percent after Harbinger Capital's Philip Falcone said
the company's shares, which traded the day before at about $9.13, could
rise to $18 to $20.

 

Most of the
speakers touted what they already owned. Trian Fund Management's Peter
May, who is Nelson Peltz's partner, talked about jeweler Tiffany and
Co. He did not discuss Family Dollar, the idea Ackman presented, even
though he owns it and his bid for the company was rejected in March.
Dinakar Singh, who founded TPG-Axon Capital, likes telecom company
Sprint Nextel Corp.

 

Greenlight
Capital's David Einhorn, whose fund long has owned shares of Microsoft
Corp, again touted that stock, but he did it with a twist -- he called
for the software company's board to oust CEO Steve Ballmer.

 

"Almost everyone agrees that it is time for the Microsoft board to tell Steve Ballmer lets give someone else a chance," he said.

 

The
industry's elder statesman Carl Icahn plugged his own company and said
the management is good and he would like to continue to acquire
companies.

 

"We like to do it friendly," he added.

 

Gundlach,
lacing his talk with slides of artwork by Pablo Picasso, Andy Warhol
and others, forecast the U.S. economy's problems would escalate and that
investors should protect themselves.

 

However,
instead of recommending gold, a common safe haven, Gundlach urged
investors to buy gemstones. "For real wealth preservation portability
has got to be an issue."

 

But the bulk of speakers did not surprise.

 

Steve
Eisman, who made his reputation with a bet against subprime mortgages,
said investors may be down too much on financial stocks, and said
there were some gems in property and casualty insurance.

 

He
said there are three ways to play them, beginning with buying
insurance brokers. Next, investors could buy large reinsurers, and the
very brave could buy the bigger and more diversified property and
casualty company stocks. He offered a chart of the companies, but did
not pick any in particular.

 

"When the cycle turns, the upside in earnings could be considerable," he noted.

I
agree with David Einhorn, time for Steve Ballmer to leave Microsoft.
He's done absolutely nothing for shareholders. As far as Chanos, the FT
blog beyondbrics comments, Chanos: short China, in New York:

 

Poor Jim Chanos. The man who has made headlines in recent years for his strident bearish call on China has run out of stuff to short.

 

 

 

His
latest suggestion is to short New York-listed Chinese stocks – if only
he could get his hands on them. Other people, it seems, have got there
first.

 

Chanos sees shorting US-listed China stocks as a great way to broaden his wider bet against China as a whole. Bloomberg reports:

“Almost
all of them have odd looking financial statements,” Chanos, the
president and founder of New York-based Kynikos Associates LP, said on
Bloomberg Television yesterday. “We wish we could borrow almost all of
them.”

But that’s easier said than done – with some
stocks seemingly impossible to get hold of in order to sell/short them.
More from Bloomberg:

Renren Inc., a Beijing-based
social-networking company that went public in the U.S. earlier this
month, is among the most expensive U.S. equities to short. The stock is
difficult to borrow with 72 percent of the lendable supply out on
loan, according to Data Explorers, a New York-based research firm.

 

Short
sellers have borrowed 96 percent of Beijing-based China Shen Zhou
Mining & Resources Inc. (SHZ)’s lendable supply, meaning there is
almost no equity available for short sellers to bet against. Its shares
are also among the most expensive for short-sellers to borrow
according to Data Explorers.

It’s easy to see why. Aside from the growing concerns over financial statements, as highlighted by the SEC probe launched this week into Longtop, the stocks in many cases just aren’t that attractive.

 

Of
453 US-listed Chinese stocks, only 7 of them have ever paid a
dividend. Of that same list, only 265 have a booked a dime of profit,
while many of them have seen their share price fall off a cliff this
year.

 

Some of those that haven’t are trading at eerily high multiples. Baidu (BIDU:NSQ) – China’s Google – trades at 71 times this years earnings, while Sina (SINA:NSQ) – other internet portal – trades at 132 times earnings. And then there’s elong (LONG:NMQ)
– the travel website – which, despite its impressive growth prospects,
already trades at a nose-bleed-inducing altitude of 246 times
earnings.

Which raises the question: what took Chanos so long?

Before you go shorting BIDU or SINA, you should check out the detailed institutional holdings on BIDU and SINA. There are some elite funds like Coatue Management and others that increased their positions on both companies during Q1 2011. I trust what Coatue and other elite funds are actually doing more than what Chanos is saying to mainstream media.

And
what about Chanos' call on First Solar and solars in general? Have a
look at price action on First Solar (FSLR), and Chinese solar companies
LDK Solar (LDK), Renesola (SOL), Suntech (STP) and Yingli Green (YGE)
during Wednesday's session:

The drop in Chinese solars has been beyond insane in the last couple of weeks. Again, check out LDK Solar's chart:

 

Look at the volume on LDK Solar over the last week. According to Yahoo Finance key statistics,
LDK Solar is now trading at a trailing P/E of 2.7 and a forward P/E of
2.6. Yes, it has lots of debt, but it isn't going bankrupt, it's not
"another Chinese fraud" and with all due respect to Jim Chanos, the
environmental benefits of solars are not questionable nor are the costs related to solar energy.

I'll tell
you what's questionable, the sneaky practices of big banks and big hedge
funds which routinely and systematically engage in naked short selling
of solar shares using multi-million dollar computers, bringing the
prices down to scare retail investors away so they can scoop up a ton
of shares on the cheap. I wouldn't be surprised if they bring LDK Solar
down to $5 or lower again and I'll be ready to scoop up more shares.

Jim
Chanos has become a claptrap for big hedgies. He made a great call on
Enron years ago but he's way off his realm of expertise when it comes to
China or solars. If you don't believe me, go check out the institutional holdings on First Solar
and you be the judge. When it comes to Chanos vs. China, I'm putting my
money where my mouth is, going long Chinese solars and shorting Chanos!

 

 

 

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Thu, 05/26/2011 - 11:24 | 1313244 nscholten
nscholten's picture

Good luck cowboy

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 11:44 | 1313323 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

You'd better cover fast shorty or else you're going to lose your shirt:

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 11:18 | 1316715 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

That's a big gap to fill before you can expect it to even start toasting shorts. :)

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 09:37 | 1312843 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Leo I'll take the other side of that bet. In a long enough time line we all go to zero ,and that is exactly where LDK is heading. Too much debt, too little demand. Solar (while I would like to see more) is not at this time not economically feasible.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 09:24 | 1312805 Dolemite
Dolemite's picture

Chanos is right.
We are headed south right along side China

http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 09:12 | 1312761 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

I think China is the biggest bubble in the history of markets by a factor of at least 3x: Shanghai Composite went from 30 in the early 90s to 6000, then halfway back. Even the Nasdaq, from 300 to 5100, was only 17x.

 

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 09:11 | 1312729 magpie
magpie's picture

Puts on FXI, but i know my timing is shitty.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:52 | 1312645 ahamer
ahamer's picture

Chanos is just "short" fullstop, fuggedaboutim

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:25 | 1312556 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Leo, LDK was once a $40 stock. Now it is 6 and headed to 5. Do you know the number of stocks that fall like this and then recover?

The answer is very few. Keeping buying the dips. Soon it will trade at $2.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:47 | 1312606 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Bruce, stick to currencies, let me worry about stocks:

http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2009/01/outlook-2009-post-deleveraging-blues.html

And for all of you who think like Bruce, take a look at the five year chart on Las Vegas Sands (LVS):

 

Pictures are worth a thousand words. Come back to me in five years on LDK!!!

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:54 | 1312672 Deep
Deep's picture

HA HA HA HA

Was 160 now 40

your a fucking joke.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 11:44 | 1313313 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Deep, you couldn't make money in the stock market if your life depended on it.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:29 | 1312554 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Dup.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:22 | 1312544 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Jesus Leo, you had a great string of articles going.... till this one.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:02 | 1312495 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Yes, the power elite will do anything to prevent another crash. However, that doesn't mean they'll be successful. The dynamics of debt and negative gdp don't lie.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 07:28 | 1312429 Josephine29
Josephine29's picture

Any thoughts on Greece Leo?

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:01 | 1312482 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Yes, I have thoughts on Greece. Surprise, surprise, austerity is killing their economy! Greek politicians need to get their heads out of their collective asses and start focusing on economic development because right now they're heading down the road to hell.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:08 | 1312498 Doc
Doc's picture

Pal, what do you know about Greece? You're a fuckin' xeno. Just because you've shown up for a month or so here or there in the summer doesn't mean you know jack about the place.

The whole Greek mentality of getting something for nothing needs to change. The place is a cess pool. Public workers working 9am to 2pm, rampant corruption, a monopolistic economy, 30 year old college students talking about anarchy and communism etc. The place is essentially a pre-industrial society still based on familial relations. People have to wake up and realize that they have to work like the rest of the world does.

Power elites and MALAKIES, give me a break, no elite can pay off or wipe away a debt of 150% debt to GDP... like any damn place in the world, if you spend more than you make for a chunk of time, you end up going bankrupt.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:19 | 1312535 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

''The whole Greek mentality of getting something for nothing needs to change''

I've been going to Greece every summer (and some winters) of my life, worked in Greece (briefly for four months) and my sister, brother-in-law and nephew live in Crete. I know all about Greece and the Greek mentality: the good, the bad and the downright ugly. I also know about the myths northern Europeans perpetuate about their southern neighbors in regards to their work ethic. So do me a favor, pal, don't lecture me on Greece or the Greek mentality. There are lazy assholes everywhere in both the public and private sector. Stop perpetuating myths that are not based on facts.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:57 | 1312670 Doc
Doc's picture

Yeah my sister's a surgeon and I spent a bit of time at the hospital with her, hardly means I'm ready to operate.

Like I said before you're a Kanathezo! Unlike you I grew up for a decent chunk of my life in Greece and know how it works. Beautiful country, great food, great life-style during the 90s and the 2000s (courtesy of EU structural funds), but on the real-side of things it's a shithole. Most people under 30 make 700-1000 euros a month. The whole place is based on rousfetia, kobines, and lamogies (pull out your Greek to English dictionary to figure those out).

No one is spreading "lies" about Greece. It is a fact that it is corrupt. It is also a fact that it has one of the lowest productivity rates around. It is also a fact that they cooked all the books for YEARS in order to join the Euro and to borrow. Well at the end of the day you have to pay the piper, and that day is today for Greece.

Stop pasting yourself with souvlaki grease and pretending you're Greek just because you roast a lamb once a year on Easter. Patriotism and being proud of one's origins are great, but letting them blind you when it comes to investing is just plain stupid.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 11:43 | 1313305 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

''It is also a fact that they cooked all the books for YEARS in order to join the Euro and to borrow.''

It is also a fact that Goldman helped them cook the books. It is also a fact that German banks knew they were never going to pay back those loans. It is also a fact that large private equity funds are salivating at the thought of buying incredible Greek assets on the cheap. What is your point re mounopano?!?!

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:09 | 1313427 Doc
Doc's picture

Prosexe psefto-dai mi sou gamisw to spiti!

Goldman didn't hold a gun to their head. The private equity funds didn't hold a gun to their head. It was the political class and the electorate TOGETHER that chose short-term policies. Goldman merely enabled them to do so. The vast majority of the debt however wasn't run up by Goldman, it was run up by the GREEK STATE.

Your response is EXACTLY what is wrong with Greece today. Blame EVERYONE else except yourself. But I guess for a people whose only pride is what their forefathers did 2000 years ago, it makes sense that pettiness, pseudo-narcissism, and the abbrogation of all responsibility would rule the day.

The fact is Greece still lives in the shadow of its Ottoman past and never went through either the rennaissance or the industrial revolution. The way things are done there is part of a world that died two centuries ago in the rest of Europe. It's either time to modernize or stagnate; not sit around blamming everyone else...

 

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 16:22 | 1314233 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I blame Greeks too, especially the ones who have severe entitlement issues.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 07:50 | 1312474 Doc
Doc's picture

Thoughts? Nah... lights are on but no one's home.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 07:23 | 1312418 fundmanagernews
fundmanagernews's picture

Leo,

I have a few issues with your article.

First of all, why don't you attack Chanos based on his reasons for shorting FSLR?

 

http://fundmanagernews.com/shorting-solar-stocks

 

  1. continuing austerity in places like Germany and Italy and Spain where there were big government subsidies to put in solar
  2. massive insider selling – insiders have sold about 3.5 million shares of FSLR in the last year. This is significant given that the stock trades at $140/share (now trades at 120)
  3. key executive departures. The operations chief left FSLR

You only talk about the fact that elite funds own FSLR. However, elite funds own almost every stock. To short means that you have to bet against at least one elite fund.

 

Chanos has never recommended shorting Chinese solar stocks. He has an issue with Chinese property stocks and solar stocks. They are two separate themes that you have joined together.

 

As someone who has a finance background I'm surprised that you are dismissing the accounting issues at many Chinese companies.

 

 

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 07:36 | 1312450 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Smoke & mirrors. Insider selling means nothing to me...terrible indicator. Key departure in solar industry is laughable because these guys are being recruited and poached all the time. As for the cuts in German and Italian subsidies, people should pay more attention to what is going on in China and now Japan. Bottom line: solar is in the early stages of a long secular bull market. It will be very volatile but prices will keep heading much, much higher.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 07:59 | 1312491 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

I am divided on this. On one side I am a huge fan of Chanos and I think he's doing a great job, not only with Enron (in fact, you should read more about his career). And I agree on his bearishness about China, I think that there are many signs for a huge property bubble and that the outlook for China will be grim short-term (IF China should get a different, somewhat more open political system (not speaking about a Western democracy type (where things aren't perfect) - I think that China will have a great future)

But speaking about China solars I am not on Chanos side. As a German I know the competition that is going on -there is a huge demand for solar energy and German companies profited very much between 2000-2010. But lately, they are having a difficult time because of the competition from China. I don't know about the quality of the products, but we will not be able to compete with them in the price area.

The discussion in Germany is still very big about energy production (we don't want to have nuclear energy anymore) and consumption (products will be produced that won't consume too much energy - the next step for German population is to reduce the energy consumption - and I think, we're able to do it (based on our experiences with recycling and a higher awareness of the environmental situation)). And there are signs that the German government, if it will get the possibilty (depending on the PIIGS situation) - it will definitely push private investment again - the possibility will even increase, if the Greens should win the next election (which seems to be possible - just look what happened in Baden-Wurttemberg - 50 or 60 years of CDU (conservative) reign - and now the Greens are the leading political party)

Fukushima has only helped to push this over the edge. There was always a strong resistance against nuclear energy within Germany (remember - Chernobyl isn't that far away - parts of Southern Bavaria are still contaminated).

 

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 07:57 | 1312479 HistorySquared
HistorySquared's picture

"The primary way most people use judgmental heuristics is to preserve the status quo. We typically trade our beliefs  about the market, and once we've made up our minds about those beliefs, we're not likely to change them. And when we play the markets, we assume that we are considering all of the available information. Instead, we may have already eliminated the most useful information available by our selective perception."  Dr Van Tharp 

Before the facts by Chanos that insiders are leaving the company, the fact that it's uneconomical energy,  and that it's dependent on insolvent buyers, you seem to have already favored solar. Are there any facts in the world that would cause you to change your mind? It's certainly not plunging stock prices or statistics.  

 

Solar may very well be part of the future - just not with current technology that costs 4 times more current energy sources. 

 

 

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 10:41 | 1312484 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

''Solar may very well be part of the future - just not with current technology that costs 4 times more current energy sources.''

Thank you for showing me how utterly ignorant you are on solar energy. Solar may be part of the future? Listen up, solar IS the future:

GE Sees Solar Cheaper Than Fossil Power in Five Years

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 07:07 | 1312402 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Leo, your call on China would have more credibility if you hadn't point-blank refused to see or acknowledge the Greek catastrophe last year, despite it being plainly obvious to most other people.  It appears that you are, by nature, an optimist but surely the reality of the past couple of years must have given you pause for thought?

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 07:31 | 1312437 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

There are big bets being placed on Greece right now. My call remains that the world's power elite will do whatever it takes to avoid another global credit crisis. Btw, here are the Q1 2011 detailed institutional holdings for the National Bank of Greece:

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=NBG&selected=NBG&FormType=Institutional

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 07:49 | 1312467 Doc
Doc's picture

Yeah, and everyone is going to do as well off of your Chinese solar recommendations as they did last year buying Greek bonds.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 07:51 | 1312477 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Talk to me in a year, two years and ten years...you can blast me all day but I got the balls to make the calls!

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:02 | 1312488 Doc
Doc's picture

Yeah, so does the retard in the street with the sign up saying "THE END IS NIGH"... fact is you've been wrong about most of your calls and if anyone had listened to you, it would have cost them a bundle of money.

At the end of the day it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool rather than to speak out and remove all doubt.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:32 | 1312565 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

'' fact is you've been wrong about most of your calls and if anyone had listened to you, it would have cost them a bundle of money.''

Hmm, let me easily discredit your statement:

Outlook 2009: Post-deleveraging blues

That comment was written back in Jan 2009. Did you buy Priceline at $40? What about all the other stocks I recommended back then (my only scewup was I avoided banks). What about the fact that I've been consistently busllish on the stock market since then, pounding the table to keep buying the dips while everyone on ZH was calling for the sky to fall?What about the fact that I lost my job as a senior investment analyst for being ''too negative'' after warning of an imminent credit crisis back in the fall of 2006?

Bottom line: I put my money where my mouth is and will continue buying Chinese solars and shorting Chanos and his big hedge fund buddies.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:15 | 1313445 Doc
Doc's picture

Bottom line is you lost your job and are losing money because your calls suck. I've heard you blame everything from how you were right but too bearish to your MS (I truly hope you get better from it whatever our disagreements) for losing yoru job.

Plus I have seen you be rude and brutish on plenty an occassion in your replies. At the end of the day you suck at what you do and have been wrong most of the time. If you were good at it you would have job offers gallor and you wouldn't be sitting around like a broadcaster merely talking about the game; but you'd be playing it.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 17:22 | 1314476 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Playing it on my terms! :):):)

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 07:04 | 1312397 ackbar
ackbar's picture

"Jim Chanos has become a claptrap for big hedgies. He made a great call on Enron years ago but he's way off his realm of expertise when it comes to China or solars. If you don't believe me, go check out the institutional holdings on First Solar and you be the judge. When it comes to Chanos vs. China, I'm putting my money where my mouth is, going long Chinese solars and shorting Chanos!"

FD: long BDW?

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 02:03 | 1312157 chump666
chump666's picture

3-6 mth China crash.  Locked in.  Primary for QE3

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 02:02 | 1312154 chump666
chump666's picture

3-6 mth China crash.  Locked in.  Primary for QE3

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:00 | 1312486 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

 

China will do what China thinks is right for the Government 1st and the People 2nd

 

 

 

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:46 | 1312615 Burnsy
Burnsy's picture

Stay short Leo Kolivakis.

The risk of a chinese hard landing is much greater than you think.First Solar will be crushed. So will Vestas. I'm taking the other side of your bet with confidence, Leo.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 08:51 | 1312643 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Go for it, but will you crawl under your rock when I am proven right?

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 09:06 | 1312706 Burnsy
Burnsy's picture

I don't have posting privileges. But please post something on it in a years time. We'll see who's right. Mind you, this applies to First Solar and Vestas only. Not your other stocks, those I am not familiar with. If I am wrong, I will happily admit it and give you credit for a prescient call.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 10:37 | 1313075 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I am long Chinese solars, LDK in particular

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