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Charles Biderman Trashes BLS Flawed Payroll Model

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The CEO of TrimTabs, Charles Biderman, continues his crusade against the Bureau Of Labor Statistics. "These [BLS] numbers are a joke." Indeed.

 

 

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Mon, 10/05/2009 - 13:41 | 88972 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

People keep saying the BLS is a joke.  We get it.  They ARE a joke.  But none of it matters so long as Goldman and JPM have the HAL9000's running full steam ahead.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 13:47 | 88980 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

if it has always been a joke, then its still apples to apples right?

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 13:49 | 88984 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

How come everytime I see "TrimTabs" I think it's some diet pill company?

Could you have spent more than $29.95 coming up with your fucking corporate moniker?  Sheesh.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 14:16 | 89019 Strom
Strom's picture

Agreed - I think the same thing every time. When they were first referenced on ZH, I was wondering why a dietary supplement manufacturer was commenting on the markets...

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 18:41 | 89311 Bob Dobbs
Bob Dobbs's picture

It's a sailing term. 

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 13:53 | 88988 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

As far as I am concerned the entire goddamn US Government is a f**king joke.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 14:27 | 89037 deadhead
deadhead's picture

I've always tried to force myself to see some "good" in our US gov't.  I'm just about at the point that you are gg.  In fact, I'm really there but I guess I just don't want to admit it because it is so sad and I have 3 children under 24 who have to live through this shit that has been created for the rest of their lives.

my oldest, at my strong suggestion, studied and learned the arabic language in college for a skill set and I insisted to my number 2 who just started college that he at least learn chinese.  both are pretty fluent in spanish as a backup.

 

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 15:16 | 89076 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Wow... preparing them for life working as Chinese, Iraqi and Mexican call center operators.

We are totally screwed...

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 15:20 | 89083 deadhead
deadhead's picture

and, those will be the GOOD jobs left in the USA.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 15:18 | 89081 johnnyBoy
johnnyBoy's picture

Muy smarto!

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 18:40 | 89307 Bob Dobbs
Bob Dobbs's picture

Your right.  I basically talked my kids into nursing school.  At least they'll have jobs.  Spanish is a given in this part of the US.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 15:47 | 89106 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

it's been that way since 11/22/1963 12:30p cst....

on that day the rockefeller / rothschild axis of
evil took over this country.....

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 13:56 | 88991 digalert
digalert's picture

Every Sunday I see hundreds of new small businesses spring up locally. Unfortunately, come the end of the day, they all dissolve. It's the swap meet.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 20:15 | 89420 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Hell, all I saw was the birth. And as far as I'm concerned, they're still alive. Chalk up another 200 new jobs times 5000 small towns in America.

Hold on, where's my calculator. Oh shit, just call it one million new jobs and then round up to 10 million.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 13:57 | 88993 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Gordon: The entire f**king governement thinks were the butt of the joke...

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 14:00 | 89003 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

This methodology has been flawed for years.  It matters not the administration, the process is the same.  The government has real time data on taxes, new company formation and the rest yet the BLS uses models.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 20:18 | 89424 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You can't just pull a number out of your ass....er...hat. You need a government agency to work the numbers. Then when someone starts asking questions, we can show them the numbers.

Yeah, that's how it works. What's it to you buddy?

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 14:25 | 89030 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Unemployment, whatever its size, is the pig in the dark.

Unemployed receive gov't benefits.... a gov't liability

Unemployed cannot pay taxes.... a gov't liability.

Unemployed cannot spend at pre bubble prices..... a gov't liability as gov't now needs to "stimulate".

Unemployed are unproductive and weigh down the country.  This problem is what will cause recovery to be slow.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 14:33 | 89045 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

This problem is what will cause recovery to be slow.

how about non existent?

How can an economy based 70% on consumption recover when true unemployment is around 20%.

In the twilight zone of irrational exuberance, almost everyone acknowledges that government data is so massively flawed it is rendered almost devoid of meaning. The paradox is, the majority continue to trade off of it, like it has meaning.

 

 

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 15:17 | 89079 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Even if unemployment was at 25%, that means the glass is half full and 75% of the labor force is working, making $$, and for the most part consuming. Maybe not buying 64" flat screen TV's, and "investment" properties but they are still doing the daily grind.

It's just a matter of time for the confidence echoed by the media to take hold and the old spending machine will have smoke billowing out of it's smokestack.

BLS numbers are irrelevant until we are near 50% U-6.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 16:09 | 89136 snorkeler
snorkeler's picture

Interesting theories

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 16:24 | 89160 Great Depressio...
Great Depression Trader's picture

#89079

Your line of reasoning is based on the assumption that spending can continue with increasing unemployment. Unfortunately, because our economy is 70% consumer spending based, every job loss causes less spending which in turn brings about more job losses. Were we to have a strong export base, then your theory could possibly hold up. Also, too much credit destruction with the loss in income.

Watch as the feds pass a 2nd stimulus causing the 2010 deficit to be much larger then originally forecast. More pressure on the bondmarket. Will the treasury be able to sell the paper indefintely??? The answer is NO. So either severe deflation as the economy adjusts or more spending from borrowing and printing and the dollar goes to hell.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 16:31 | 89172 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

having just returned from the city with perhaps the highest retail saturation in the USA, i can say the only thing people were consuming in quantity, were lap dances (just guessing, from the stories i heard) and in&out burgers (ahhh, best burger).

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 17:57 | 89260 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Assume for a minute that we have a real unemployment rate of 20%. Most of those unemployed have spouses that are still working, so automatically the percent of households where spending is curtailed is around 40%. Think of it, 40% of households cutting their spending. No expensive electronics, no new furniture, no new car, no home remodeling (well maybe some new paint now that one member has time on their hands). Unemployed households do not go out to eat very often, they take inexpensive vacations (think camping) or none at all, they might window shop at the mall, but they don't buy much that they don't really need right now, and they tend to repair what they already have rather than replace with new. The unemployed do not need new work clothes, gas to go to work, and they eat lunch at home instead of out. Add to this that most of these people have an extended family that subconsciously pulls in their spending when one or more of their relatives are out of work for more than a brief period, and no one knows how long this might last.

So explain to me again how "the old spending machine will have smoke billowing out of it's smokestack" fueled only with confidence.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 19:36 | 89366 deadhead
deadhead's picture

89079...i take it you don't quite understand the whole "credit" or "debt" thingee?

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 15:13 | 89073 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Maria Bortolomo just diligently reminded everyone out of nowhere about how WRONG Mr Binderman is.

Propaganda is funny.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 15:58 | 89118 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Wasn't that Sue Hog-rerra?

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 16:11 | 89141 snorkeler
snorkeler's picture

Especially when Maria delivers it.

When I grow up I want to be a news reader too. Better start learning Chinese.

 

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 20:22 | 89429 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I lovingly call these idiots news repeaters, not reporters or even readers. In fact, it apples to just about anyone who works for a soon-to-be-out-of-business newspaper.

A group of news repeaters (aka newspaper) is really another word for a circle jerk.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 16:23 | 89157 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

LOL i thought that was Sue Hog-rerra?!!

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 18:04 | 89272 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Maria said it too. I think they have a one per hour quota for the reminder.

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 16:04 | 89131 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Dear Zerohedge,
If things are as bad as 99 percent of the posts on ZH seem to indicate, why does the market keep going up? Should i buy long triplers?

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 18:19 | 89288 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Hey guys look... I found one over here!

Listen... Anonymous my friend, if you have reason to believe that things are better than we think...

Please share the info with us cuz we would be very appreciative of good news... really we would.. ( except those of us who are currently short of course)

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 19:41 | 89370 deadhead
deadhead's picture

If things are as bad as 99 percent of the posts on ZH seem to indicate, why does the market keep going up? Should i buy long triplers?

I would respectfully suggest that you read several books about the economic history of the United States. I would then suggest you read double that number of books about the history of the United States financial markets, aka "wall street".  After that you may want to spend some time reading about the theories of the Efficient Market vs. the Behavioral Economists.

After that, make your own decisions about why the market (i presume you mean equity, because the government treasury bond market has been up lately as well) is up. Then, make your own decision about 3xers because it is pretty rare that you will get stock recommendations at zh

Mon, 10/05/2009 - 17:49 | 89247 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I just called, and left a nice message explaining why he is a douche bag. I suggest everyone reading this do the same.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!