Charles Nenner: "Long-Term Investors Should Wait Until Dow Hits 5,000"

Tyler Durden's picture

Charles Nenner, who prior to founding the Charles Nenner Research Institute served as a technical analyst for Goldman for about 10 years, has been looking at charts and not seeing much to write home about. In his interview with the TechTicker, Nenner says "I expect the bear market rally to continue for 4 more years, with big upswings like in Japan before coming down again. I don't expect the market to totally fall out of bed. It is going to be very difficult few years to make some money. We will test the lows of 2009 to be tested over the next couple of years. I don't expect the economy to pick up until 2020." How charts can give him macroeconomic perspective with a 10 year bogey, we are not too sure. As to trading, he believes that as long as the S&P does not close below 1,085, the market will continue bouncing, and if 1,085 is taken out "it should be all over." For longer-term investors, Nenner suggests to wait until the Dow goes below its trendline average, with a Dow target of around 5,000. Of course, whether Brian Sack will allow stocks to drop that low is a different matter altogether.

h/t Slim Beleggen

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buzzsaw99's picture

The bears always look disheveled. lulz

Village Idiot's picture

"The bears always look disheveled. lulz"

 

Yeah, and many seem to have an unintelligible accent/mumble. WHAT?!

jvota's picture

2020 is roughly when the next cohort of consumers, large enough to offset the declining spending habits or retiring baby boomers, begins to hit its peak spending years.

Ragnar D's picture

How will they do that, as half their earnings are confiscated by thug politicians, "Entitlements" swallow 90% of the budget, and we still can't come within $1000 billion of breakeven for a single year?

TBT or not TBT's picture

Solars!     (Leo's gone missing here, so....)

jvota's picture

I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin, like what that finook Nenner is thinkin Danneskjold.

PatrickBateman's picture

Interesting read, Bill... thanks for posting

oklaboy's picture

2019, do I hear 2019?  ok, 2018? do I hear 2018??? sold at 2018 

tgatliff's picture

If a fiat currency is very easily diluable, then what does this auther think the true value of 5000 is?   Meaning, how can one put a physical number on something when they do not know what the quantitative easing plans of the federal reserve is??

Young's picture

I have a question, can the FED hit the easing button without congress approval?

tmosley's picture

They can't, but they have, so I guess they can.

Give me the power to print currency and I care not who writes a nation's laws.  It rings true every time.

Boilermaker's picture

Well, that's kind of a murky grayish area that they'll take the liberty of assuming themselves fully authorized, unilaterally, to do.

LeBalance's picture

hahahahahahahaha....

>US Law Jurisdiction for 400, Alex: "US Laws that apply to the Federal Reserve Bank because they are actually Extra-US."

"What is none?"

Yay! A winner!

They are outside the US Corporation and as a result outside the US Law.

dnarby's picture

 

Good!

 

Because that means we are also outside THEIR law, so when we repudiate the debt they can go pound sand in their @$$.

johngaltfla's picture

The Fed Still has the ABBAnomics (Swedish) model open to them. That would be a total freakout for our credit and FX markets.

hungrydweller's picture

+1

They will inflate away the value of the currency so that 5000 may never be seen again.  However, DJIA 36,000 will be equivalent to DJIA 1000 measured in gold before it is all over.

SwapThis's picture

Agree, IF we don't have genuine deflation.  Then we could hit 5000, turnaround and hit 36,000 a couple years later with the inevitable hyper-inflation.  It ought to be a hell of a ride one way or the other.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

If we can't even close in the red today then it's gonna take one heck of a long time to get down to 5000.

curbyourrisk's picture

No way parity with gold. That would the DOW at 950 in a year.

 

NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!!!!

Mako's picture

This will not be finished for many many decades.  Last time basically a lost generation, my guess 2 lost generations at least, for the Japanese it will probably be 3 or more lost generations. 

Japan will be back to test 28 year lows.  Hahahaha.  There is no out, well, unless you think going through a meat grinder is an out.

The ultimate capitalist will play the bounces and short the raids until there is no more dead cat bounces and there is nothing more to short, they will go in hibernation while the bottomfeeder lemmings decide who is going to be liquidated. 

 

Hephasteus's picture

People just aren't getting it. There will be no fall in the down. The markets will simply GO AWAY. No more publicly traded companies. No more bullshit "common stock".

CPL's picture

I would have to agree.  There's a reason why we don't have a tulip exchange anymore.

 

In terms of techincals, there's nothing in the market right now.  Only thing shoving it around are the ETF's which are just debt instruments at the end of the day.  Hate to say it but the PINK sheets have more value to them right now which isn't saying much.

LeBalance's picture

As long as there are folks to be conned there will be cons.

ZeroPower's picture

Please make a case for how a PINK/OTCBB has any value whatsoever besides a lottery ticket in a scammer's toolbox.

Abiggs's picture

As long as Eur/USD is rising like it has been doing for the last two weeks, whether we close below or above 1085 is irrelevant. Herbs such as this guy tend to miss the big picture due to a an under emphasis on market correlations, produced by quant strategies.

MGA_1's picture

Lot of analysts going really bearish lately - HS Dent, Richard Russell, Prechtor - hmm.....

CPL's picture

It's because they are no longer accepting the term correction with the highest levels of debt ever from public, private and personal sectors.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Those long-term investors might not have tooooo long to wait.

But I'd also question the very phrase "long-term" in today's environment.

What is long-term investing anymore? Anyone investing for their retirement? Nope, only funds do that.

It's all short-term circle-jerking spirals downward from here.

Outta bed! Now!

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

b_thunder's picture

New highs for the Dow?  

Ne-ne-ne-ne-ner, ne-ne-ne-ne-ner! 

 

King_of_simpletons's picture

I am sure the too big to fail banks will make loads of money no matter how the outlook for the next 10 years look like. HFTs will get better over time to convince your PC to give up your bank accounts.

Jason T's picture

This guy sells hocus pocus.  How he gets so much media attention is beyond me.  

Smiddywesson's picture

You CAN wait until the Dow reaches 5000 to buy, or

you can wait until 2:30 pm each day

Bam_Man's picture

This guy is actually a circus clown, cleverly disguised with the beard, black suit and a yarmulke.

Ever since he called "the top" last October, I have stopped listening to his schtick.

bigdumbnugly's picture

"I don't expect the economy to pick up until 2020." How charts can give him macroeconomic perspective with a 10 year bogey, we are not too sure.

 

what about soybeans or pork bellies?  where will they be in 2020?  i gotta know, Chuck.

 

CPL's picture

I wouldn't ask an economist a question about food production considering how baddly they do their own jobs to begin with.

uno's picture

I believe he is referencing bubble burst charts like this one:

http://dshort.com/articles/2010/mega-bear-2000.html

 

You can see the bubbles bottom 2-3, 12-13 and 19-20 years after peaks.

 

 

Boilermaker's picture

And...viola, the market is back above 1085 on mystery buying.

 

TA DAH!

Oso's picture

i know, shocking, right??  no volume, magical, levitating bid.  Cant let the market go down when JPM reports, otherwise plebs might think the ship is actually sinking!

Remington IV's picture

Not a hair out of place

Remington IV's picture

Not a hair out of place

scratch_and_sniff's picture

What a crock of shyte.

NOTW777's picture

hoorah. fin reg is passed. does this mean dodd and frank refi @ 1.75%, no points and 1 10k broker rebate.

obama owns the banks

NOTW777's picture

LOL GS goes green.

checks in the mail mr obama

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

i think he said 1025 rather than 1085.