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Charles Nenner: "Long-Term Investors Should Wait Until Dow Hits 5,000"
Charles Nenner, who prior to founding the Charles Nenner Research Institute served as a technical analyst for Goldman for about 10 years, has been looking at charts and not seeing much to write home about. In his interview with the TechTicker, Nenner says "I expect the bear market rally to continue for 4 more years, with big upswings like in Japan before coming down again. I don't expect the market to totally fall out of bed. It is going to be very difficult few years to make some money. We will test the lows of 2009 to be tested over the next couple of years. I don't expect the economy to pick up until 2020." How charts can give him macroeconomic perspective with a 10 year bogey, we are not too sure. As to trading, he believes that as long as the S&P does not close below 1,085, the market will continue bouncing, and if 1,085 is taken out "it should be all over." For longer-term investors, Nenner suggests to wait until the Dow goes below its trendline average, with a Dow target of around 5,000. Of course, whether Brian Sack will allow stocks to drop that low is a different matter altogether.
h/t Slim Beleggen
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The bears always look disheveled. lulz
"The bears always look disheveled. lulz"
Yeah, and many seem to have an unintelligible accent/mumble. WHAT?!
2020 is roughly when the next cohort of consumers, large enough to offset the declining spending habits or retiring baby boomers, begins to hit its peak spending years.
How will they do that, as half their earnings are confiscated by thug politicians, "Entitlements" swallow 90% of the budget, and we still can't come within $1000 billion of breakeven for a single year?
Solars! (Leo's gone missing here, so....)
I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin, like what that finook Nenner is thinkin Danneskjold.
That seems like an optimistic target according to some: http://www.scribd.com/doc/26276296/Dow-1000-is-Not-a-Silly-Number
Interesting read, Bill... thanks for posting
2019, do I hear 2019? ok, 2018? do I hear 2018??? sold at 2018
If a fiat currency is very easily diluable, then what does this auther think the true value of 5000 is? Meaning, how can one put a physical number on something when they do not know what the quantitative easing plans of the federal reserve is??
I have a question, can the FED hit the easing button without congress approval?
They can't, but they have, so I guess they can.
Give me the power to print currency and I care not who writes a nation's laws. It rings true every time.
Well, that's kind of a murky grayish area that they'll take the liberty of assuming themselves fully authorized, unilaterally, to do.
hahahahahahahaha....
>US Law Jurisdiction for 400, Alex: "US Laws that apply to the Federal Reserve Bank because they are actually Extra-US."
"What is none?"
Yay! A winner!
They are outside the US Corporation and as a result outside the US Law.
Good!
Because that means we are also outside THEIR law, so when we repudiate the debt they can go pound sand in their @$$.
The Fed Still has the ABBAnomics (Swedish) model open to them. That would be a total freakout for our credit and FX markets.
+1
They will inflate away the value of the currency so that 5000 may never be seen again. However, DJIA 36,000 will be equivalent to DJIA 1000 measured in gold before it is all over.
Agree, IF we don't have genuine deflation. Then we could hit 5000, turnaround and hit 36,000 a couple years later with the inevitable hyper-inflation. It ought to be a hell of a ride one way or the other.
If we can't even close in the red today then it's gonna take one heck of a long time to get down to 5000.
My target too! Dow:Gold parity...+/- 5 bux
http://www.chartsrus.com/chart.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/charts...
No way parity with gold. That would the DOW at 950 in a year.
NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!!!!
This will not be finished for many many decades. Last time basically a lost generation, my guess 2 lost generations at least, for the Japanese it will probably be 3 or more lost generations.
Japan will be back to test 28 year lows. Hahahaha. There is no out, well, unless you think going through a meat grinder is an out.
The ultimate capitalist will play the bounces and short the raids until there is no more dead cat bounces and there is nothing more to short, they will go in hibernation while the bottomfeeder lemmings decide who is going to be liquidated.
People just aren't getting it. There will be no fall in the down. The markets will simply GO AWAY. No more publicly traded companies. No more bullshit "common stock".
I would have to agree. There's a reason why we don't have a tulip exchange anymore.
In terms of techincals, there's nothing in the market right now. Only thing shoving it around are the ETF's which are just debt instruments at the end of the day. Hate to say it but the PINK sheets have more value to them right now which isn't saying much.
As long as there are folks to be conned there will be cons.
Please make a case for how a PINK/OTCBB has any value whatsoever besides a lottery ticket in a scammer's toolbox.
As long as Eur/USD is rising like it has been doing for the last two weeks, whether we close below or above 1085 is irrelevant. Herbs such as this guy tend to miss the big picture due to a an under emphasis on market correlations, produced by quant strategies.
Lot of analysts going really bearish lately - HS Dent, Richard Russell, Prechtor - hmm.....
It's because they are no longer accepting the term correction with the highest levels of debt ever from public, private and personal sectors.
Those long-term investors might not have tooooo long to wait.
But I'd also question the very phrase "long-term" in today's environment.
What is long-term investing anymore? Anyone investing for their retirement? Nope, only funds do that.
It's all short-term circle-jerking spirals downward from here.
Outta bed! Now!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
double.
New highs for the Dow?
Ne-ne-ne-ne-ner, ne-ne-ne-ne-ner!
I am sure the too big to fail banks will make loads of money no matter how the outlook for the next 10 years look like. HFTs will get better over time to convince your PC to give up your bank accounts.
This guy sells hocus pocus. How he gets so much media attention is beyond me.
You CAN wait until the Dow reaches 5000 to buy, or
you can wait until 2:30 pm each day
This. So stupidly easy.
This guy is actually a circus clown, cleverly disguised with the beard, black suit and a yarmulke.
Ever since he called "the top" last October, I have stopped listening to his schtick.
"I don't expect the economy to pick up until 2020." How charts can give him macroeconomic perspective with a 10 year bogey, we are not too sure.
what about soybeans or pork bellies? where will they be in 2020? i gotta know, Chuck.
I wouldn't ask an economist a question about food production considering how baddly they do their own jobs to begin with.
I believe he is referencing bubble burst charts like this one:
http://dshort.com/articles/2010/mega-bear-2000.html
You can see the bubbles bottom 2-3, 12-13 and 19-20 years after peaks.
And...viola, the market is back above 1085 on mystery buying.
TA DAH!
i know, shocking, right?? no volume, magical, levitating bid. Cant let the market go down when JPM reports, otherwise plebs might think the ship is actually sinking!
Not a hair out of place
Not a hair out of place
What a crock of shyte.
hoorah. fin reg is passed. does this mean dodd and frank refi @ 1.75%, no points and 1 10k broker rebate.
obama owns the banks
LOL GS goes green.
checks in the mail mr obama
i think he said 1025 rather than 1085.
I heard that also
Actually he said both numbers.
First 85 then 25.
I have to hand it to Scott Brown. He parades around MA in his truck vowing to strike down the healthcare bill.
Months later, we have healthcare anyhow and Mr. Brown voted yea for a bill called "Dodd/Frank". Hell, the bill's name speaks for itself.
And here, the people of MA thought their vote would make a difference. Comedy!
Once a person is sucked into the vortex of Capitol Hill they are immediately infected with numerous viruses. Their memories are erased. All campaign statements made are null and void. That's why we always gits what we got.
I knew this guy was a joke, but wanted info to confirm it. I went back to the cnbc video archives and found that from 12/2007 to 9/2009 he made 2 right calls and 6 wrong calls, almost as good as flipping a coin. He's not a clown, the people who take his advice are. I have high respect for ZH, but between this and mad hedge fund trader, I'm losing some.
Duplicate post, stupid phone.
OT - bernie sanders is out with an email regarding the passing of fin-reg. what is fascinating are the results, albeit limited, to a poll he attaches. the perceived benefits of fin reg, as seen by constituents, is promising. i'm going to check the results again after more people have responded.
http://sanders.senate.gov/polls/index.cfm
I just can't get behind any chartists that don't account for QE/stimulus money and forex. Static number predictions mean absolutely zero.
This market will probably trade wildly higher once QE v2 is finally announced (or stealth announced). The Fed and its cronies cannot afford for deflation to take hold long-term. They would much rather risk hyper-inflation. They all fail if there is deflation on a long enough scale.
I knew this guy was a joke, but wanted info to confirm it. I went back to the cnbc video archives and found that from 12/2007 to 9/2009 he made 2 right calls and 6 wrong calls, almost as good as flipping a coin. He's not a clown, the people who take his advice are.
I have high respect for ZH, but between this and mad hedge fund trader, I'm losing some.
Nah, I flipped that coin and the outcome was much better.
This is one of those guys you learn to fade.
That's right. Nenner is wrong, more than he is right. He has been spectacularly wrong most of the time for the last couple years. But he keeps coming back, like the bad penny he is.
Well, if you had read Harry Dent roughly 15 years ago, you'd already be on top of this ....
at least he is on TV right?
I have been tracking Nenner for about a year. His predictions are no more accurate than anyone elses. He keeps changing them too.
OK so another item for notice: Here from Amsterdam, Charles Nenner
You don't have to ask what he's smoking anymore.....
Ex Goldman. Fancy hat. And a batting average of 0.15%. Hes either clueless or a plant.
His predictions can definitely be way off timing wise. That being said, and from an interview last month - he sees gold at $2500 in a couple of years, he likes silver better than gold. He's very bullish on commodities starting next month for a few years. He sees deflation for the rest of 2010. He sees serious inflation in 2011 to 2012. He sees bonds getting whacked in 2011.
He quite often hedges his predictions if x, then y, but if z happens than a. Hard to be "wrong" that way.
You'd think the nice folks at TechTicker would be smart enough to say, "Hey Chuck, here's a new bottle Head and Shoulders, do us a favor..."
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