Chartblast for Thursday

An uninterrupted meltup in the $RLX with WMT lagging.  What happens if WMT takes off?  What happens if OIH, XLE, XOP breakout?  Dow 12,000?  Will retailers still go parabolic with oil at $90?

Where is Richard Russell these days?  Did he miss this entire rally again?  How about Tim "You Have Been Warned" Wood?

All those women who describe themselves in personal ads as "voluptuous" or "full figured" or "tons of fun" are now shopping again...

Here in Los Angeles, we have a number of banks considered to be the "subprime" lenders in the SBA loan market.  Like student loans, this is another government guarantee bonanza.  And as the Fed is mopping up everything these days, the junker lenders in Los Angeles are exploding:

But the stock that has the most insatiable demand these days is Limited Brands...

I'll let Leo post all the garbage bin runs today, I'm sure there were lots of them....

Party on.....

Comments

[Mr Lennon Hendrix]

"What happens if WMT takes off?  What happens if OIH, XLE, XOP breakout?"  This is the biggest question for me.  XOM keeping a lid on things?  Why spoil the party Rockefeller?  "All things in due time." 

[whatsinaname]

Will GOOG spoil the party tomorrow ?

maybe not..ISRG will make up for it..

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[Brokenarrow]

There are "interested parties," as we speak that will be having a discussion with XOM insiders about that very subject--

It will play something like this: "you keep the public and the media off our back and we will deliver you the numbers you want."  Last trade: $75.

And, I'm not trying to joke. Can it be any other way???

[Leo Kolivakis]

Mike Paulenoff wrote a nice comment on Ford (F) on Slope of Hope:

LDK Solar (LDK), GT Solar (SOLR), Yingli Green Energy (YGE) and Suntech Power Holdings (STP) all forged ahead on big volume:

Even the leader, First Solar (FSLR) is breaking out:

Finally, some feel data storage is the next big thing:

[Gunther]

Who junks the eye candy??

[john_connor]

apparently Leo posting models won't even prevent mass junking.  That's powerful.

[Rainman]

.....maybe they're just junking the Ford she sits in. Just sayin'.

[Pure Evil]

Or, maybe they're just junking Leo.

Sorry Leo, it seems you have at least 4 detractors. Just their way of letting you know they're sculking around the periphery.

Sculk: to lie or keep in hiding, as for some evil reason

[Leo Kolivakis]

You ZH fleas are funny. Listen to Soros publicly calling for a market crash while privately Soros Fund Management has been buying the ying-yang out of stocks:

http://www.mffais.com/123750

Notice the big positions in Ford, Citigroup, and Pfizer. Always look at what they're doing, not what they're saying. Soros and other top hedge fund managers know there is plenty of liquidity out there to propel stocks higher.

[john_connor]

No question Leo you have been right about stocks and hedge funds levering up.  I have never questioned that, although you do have a certain Cramer like quality about you which I think turns people off.  Anyway, I just find the mass junking interesting.  But as you say, who cares?  I sure as hell wouldn't if I had been holding Chinese Solars since the bottom.

I'll say it once and I'll say it again, more power to you.

[Yardfarmer]

cars, drugs, and money with a bimbo thrown in for laughs

[vanorton]

i have no idea what theyre doin...and frankly i dont care, but the info youre refering to is like 3-6 months old

[Leo Kolivakis]

Results are primarily from last quarter of 2009 (12-31-2009). Q1 results will be coming out in May. It gives you a snapshot of what they've been doing, and except for a few core positions, they turn over their entire portfolio several times a year. I use this info as to explore investment and trading ideas, and I never follow their moves blindly.

[dcb]

does mr soros mention a time frame, or when he would take his trading position? i know the bubbble will burst again too. but it doesn't mean i have to be short the whole ride up.

you are too smart for the comment made.

[Orly]

I wil take it for granted that Leo has super-thick skin by now having managed pension funds.

Don't let these plebes bother you.

[Leo Kolivakis]

John, Orly,

Thanks but I have dealt with my share of arrogant hedge fund and pension fund managers. I can eat these plebes for breakfast. :)

[El Hosel]

 Maybe some folks are tired of "Dorkboy"  trying to ride on Robo's wave.

Hey Leo,  get off.....parasites are out of vogue.

[Leo Kolivakis]

El Hoser,

STFUP and just buy some Chinese solars while you can still rub two nickels together. If Robo has a problem with my comments, he knows where to find me.

[Hulk]

Not me, even though I can't look at this stuff anymore. Thats my daughter's age and there is just something wrong about looking at it!

[IQ 145]

 Gay rights activists ? No seriously, I have no idea. it does seem a little pointless.

[omi]

I own STEC, what the hell is your problem with it? It's a decent company that makes money, doesn't have debt, has plenty of cash for operations, has decent profit margin, increasing revenue grown AND very low PE.

http://ycharts.com/companies/STEC

[Leo Kolivakis]

I don't have any problems with STEC, I actually like it and recommend it, which is why it's posted. Flag away!

[Catullus]

All very valid, but it was still a short covering rally.  Someone on the 13 calls got quite a run today. 

[WaterWings]

I'll take the fat one.

[Village Idiot]

taking one for the team - nice.

[Careless Whisper]

STEC short squeez. ouch.

SBUX had a perky day.

http://www.thevancouverite.com/pictures/megan-fox-coffee.gif

[Catullus]

Stec. Ramp it!

[Moe Gamble]

Retest of the highs in the DX, then down down down for the dollar as oil goes to $100. All excess oil and then some being loaded onto tankers right now.

Solars will go up with oil. Not sure about LTD, as I don't understand the kind of drunks who would be buying that stock in the first place.

[Leo Kolivakis]

Solars were flying today and oil went down marginally. The old thinking was solars are a leveraged play on oil. Not sure this will hold going forward.

[omi]

I find that solars follow natural gas.

[Orly]

Exactly what I was thinking.  It seems to me that the next decade is going to be a Solar v. NatGas collision.

It's going to be interesting.  Too bad for Leo he is on the other side of that trade.

:D

[chancee]

I guess GOOG's share price is out of the Fed's budget for a stick save

[chancee]

I guess GOOG's share price is out of the Fed's budget for a stick save

[ZackAttack]

Didn't you get the memo? Tech doesn't matter... only FIRE matters.

[crzyhun]

CIT, skelton walking....just like this market.

[pragmatic hobo]

just wait until we get GM IPO.

[omi]

CIT is a perfectly viable company as long as cash flow won't be abrutptly cut.

[anony]

Goog off $30.00 after the close. 

Ever so: Sell on the news.

[bchbum]

Sell on the news didn't work for intel.

[Gunther]

In my reading of Dow Theory a Bull Market started late in August '09. However, two things do not look right; the volume goes down with the price going up (usually Bear Market action) and at the start of the Bull run Dow/Gold was higher then now.

[omi]

Why would you buy USA stocks when you can buy BRIC or China stocks of companies that grow 3-5 times faster, it's simply a bad allocation of capital in an expanding phase. USA companies are great for writing options on, not very volatile and can hold a range.

[Don Smith]

USA companies are great for writing options on, not very volatile and can hold a range.

Yeah, if the range is "To Infinity and Beyond!"  I hope you haven't written any calls on US Equities in the last quarter. Writing puts, sure...

[omi]

Symmetrical (both put and call on the same underlying) ratios have been great.

[Gunther]

I made a statement about Dow Theory, not a statement about buying the DOW.

[Niskyboy]

"Why would you buy USA stocks when you can buy BRIC or China stocks of companies that grow 3-5 times faster" -- because you can't trust Chinese accounting any more than you can trust the paint on their toys.

[AnonymousMonetarist]

 Fútbol anyone?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgmAt3-ipM4

[Yardfarmer]

impeccable taste

[jakeman]

Robo, this truly is my favorite part of every day. You never disappoint.

[Brokenarrow]

Beautiful girl. But, I got news for ya: her breath smells like my dogs butt at 5am.

I wont mention what else.................

[Cyan Lite]

We'll get a pretty good pullback tomorrow.  200k open interest on the SPY $120-strike for April.  That means the big boys will want it to close at $119.99 or lower. 

[abalone]

Cyan great calls of late...can I ask what are your thoughts come Monday. Usual pump or unexpected dump?

[Cyan Lite]

No clue, but I'm buying more $123 May SPY calls on Friday assuming we do get a decent sell-off...

[abalone]

I must say that preacher face in your avatar exudes belief...You're the man where as I'm still burning in my shorts best of luck & thanks for sharing

[Kreditanstalt]

We'll never see a "failed bond auction".  But all it will take is a couple of weeks of unrelenting and unspinnable "bad" news - consumer confidence, durable good orders, (un)employment stats, credit outstanding, or retail sales - to start the panic selling.

Then maybe the Dash for Trash will become a Flight to Quality...   

[the grateful un...]

we already have the flight to trash, how about the dash to quality, followed by a couple feet of volcanic ASH, on Wall Street.

[the grateful un...]

oh and thats some nice ASH, too bad the plane is grounded.

[Augustus]

Any thoughts on why VNQ had the big drop today?  It has been on what seems to be a nonsense runup for months, today it ws down pretty hard.

[Ned Zeppelin]

The slow upward drift of the price of oil is the poison in the machine.  At some point it will start gulping down those few discretionary consumer dollars that green shoot smokes find so alluring.  Summer of 2008 taught us what the price of oil does to the US economy, and we're already over the $80 threshold that spells trouble.  And the summertime gas price increase is not even here yet.  H2 is not going to be pretty, and the liquidity tsunami means nothing to Joe 6P.

[dcb]

it is going to go this way.

fed ignores food and fuel other stuff too we will enter one more a commodity induced recession as wages go to fuel. bernanke will trat recession with more qe, therefore causing inflation in th long run again. this is how he plans to get out of debt hole. he must also dfo this to hide his crminial negligence about mortgage fraud, securitizatio, etc.

defaults would expose the rampant fraud in the financial sector and his role in it.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010
"Never Even a Whisper" at Fed's Open Market Committee Meetings

Ben Bernanke, William Dudley and Donald L Kohn are on the Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC).

They are also on the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - often called the "central banks' central bank". And Kohn is an alternate director for BIS.

Alan Greenspan, of course, was a BIS director for many years.

Dudley is also chairman of BIS' Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems. (Tim Geithner - previously on the FOMC - previously held that post).

So there is clearly quite a bit of overlap between the two groups.

In addition, BIS' chief economist - William White - and others within BIS - repeatedly warned the Federal Reserve and other central banks that they were setting the world economy up for a fall by blowing bubbles and then using "using gimmicks and palliatives" which "will only make things worse".

As Spiegel wrote last July:

White and his team of experts observed the real estate bubble developing in the United States. They criticized the increasingly impenetrable securitization business, vehemently pointed out the perils of risky loans and provided evidence of the lack of credibility of the rating agencies. In their view, the reason for the lack of restraint in the financial markets was that there was simply too much cheap money available on the market...

As far back as 2003, White implored central bankers to rethink their strategies, noting that instability in the financial markets had triggered inflation, the "villain" in the global economy...

In the restrained world of central bankers, it would have been difficult for White to express himself more clearly...

It was probably the biggest failure of the world's central bankers since the founding of the BIS in 1930. They knew everything and did nothing. Their gigantic machinery of analysis kept spitting out new scenarios of doom, but they might as well have been transmitted directly into space...

In their report, the BIS experts derisively described the techniques of rating agencies like Moody's and Standard & Poor's as "relatively crude" and noted that "some caution is in order in relation to the reliability of the results."...

In January 2005, the BIS's Committee on the Global Financial System sounded the alarm once again, noting that the risks associated with structured financial products were not being "fully appreciated by market participants." Extreme market events, the experts argued, could "have unanticipated systemic consequences."

They also cautioned against putting too much faith in the rating agencies, which suffered from a fatal flaw. Because the rating agencies were being paid by the companies they rated, the committee argued, there was a risk that they might rate some companies too highly and be reluctant to lower the ratings of others that should have been downgraded.

These comments show that the central bankers knew exactly what was going on, a full two-and-a-half years before the big bang. All the ingredients of the looming disaster had been neatly laid out on the table in front of them: defective rating agencies, loans repackaged to the point of being unrecognizable, dubious practices of American mortgage lenders, the risks of low-interest policies. But no action was taken. Meanwhile, the Fed continued to raise interest rates in nothing more than tiny increments...

The Fed chairman was not even impressed by a letter the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America (MICA), a trade association of US mortgage providers, sent to the Fed on Sept. 23, 2005. In the letter, MICA warned that it was "very concerned" about some of the risky lending practices being applied in the US real estate market. The experts even speculated that the Fed might be operating on the basis of incorrect data. Despite a sharp increase in mortgages being approved for low-income borrowers, most banks were reporting to the Fed that they had not lowered their lending standards. According to a study MICA cited entitled "This Powder Keg Is Going to Blow," there was no secondary market for these "nuclear mortgages."...

William White and his Basel team were dumbstruck. The central bankers were simply ignoring their warnings. Didn't they understand what they were being told? Or was it that they simply didn't want to understand?

Yet, White said in a short, must-see talk last week that former long-time St. Louis Fed president William Poole told him that there was never even a whisper of these basic concepts at a single FOMC meeting.

Indeed, White says that - even today - the Federal Reserve is doing the same old thing, reading off of the same playbook that caused the Latin American crisis, the Asian meltdown, the Long Term Capital meltdown, and all of the other financial crises of the last couple of decades. And see this.

White, of course, argues for more accurate models which take into account real-world factors such as debt stocks, and include a time-frame longer than 2-year inflation targets or 4-year election cycles.

But as Simon Johnson has repeatedly pointed out, economics used to acknowledge that politics had an important affect on economic policy, but now the economics profession - as a whole - tries to pretend that it is strictly a mathematical and technical art form.

And as I documented last October, economists are trained to ignore - and central bankers and regulators rewarded to the extent that they ignore - the real world.

And we cannot improve our models and understandings of how to prevent another crisis unless the truth of what caused this crisis is openly discussed (under subpoena power). If the government's entire strategy remains to cover up the truth, then we won't have the chance.

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