This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Chartblast for Wednesday
Another plethora of breakouts, scalded dog runs, maniacal squeezes, as short sellers run for the hills and fund managers desperately search for dips to buy leading stocks. Nothing's changed, as long as the financials are leading, there is no stopping this run yet.
Top 5 percent gainers:
Wow, auto sales are still booming? Wonder how far this runs off this 9 month base:
Anybody see last Sunday's NYT Styles magazine? Every page filled with fancy ads for exotic furnishings for your Park Ave. apartment. Must be all those Goldman Sachs boys doing the buying. As a result, ad revenue must be ready to explode:
And as Rasputin pointed out today, instead of "Great Depression II" soup lines, we lines of people at the Apple store and Best Buy for the latest electronic gizmo, router, networking device, or whatever...
The fabled "V-Shaped Recovery" led by tech is here:
Oh, don't forget the acute shortage of single family homes....
And don't forget the wicker baskets and other useless impluse purchase clutter:
Flat out, this is the strongest tape I've seen since the 1990's......
I gotta run, check back later and I'll see if I can find more junkers to put up...
»
- 5389 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
how are the prison stocks doing ? Percentage of American men (10%) & women (7%) in prison have had quite a huge run since 1971. The same numbers were less than 1% in 1971. The gold standard economy brought to you by our loving Fed.
End the War on Drugs, now.
For those that oppose this idea, I would tell you that this fraudulent police state fabrication of a war is not what you think it is. Do you know anyone that has trouble finding drugs that wants them? Hmmm? Did you know that the hardest substances for underage kids to obtain are cigarettes and alcohol? Hmmm?
If you are a friend of violent murderous cartels, like seeing your potential tax dollars flee the country, and love the idea of teenagers getting whatever substance they want from an unregulated black market... then by all means support the unwinnable police state action known as the Drug War.
The Drug War was never designed to be, and never could be, won. It makes me want to puke.
Fuck the police state.
They can't even keep drugs out of prisons, how in the hell are they suppossed to keep them out of society???
And drug abuse is a nedical problem, not a judicial one. FWIW
I've been thinking that the prison-industrial complex would make great fodder for an incarceration index of some sort.
No doubt there will be more people heading up the river in the future.
Dude, you keep posting this. It's NOT 10%! Didn't you have to do a Captcha to post here? 1,000 prisoners per 100,000 population = 1%. As I said in my other corrective post - it's still ugly. One of the worst rates in the world, and it makes no sense, but stop posting this error. It detracts from the message.
I have never seen anything like this in all my days.
The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be. - Valery
We cannot truly plan, because we do not understand the future--but this is not necessarily a bad news. We could plan while bearing in mind such limitations. It just takes guts. - Taleb
The Fed's never printed this much money.
You see this happen on the moon a lot, everything defies gravity.
Fed oxygen and fitted with a proper pair of wings, pigs could fly on the moon.
Credit Heinlein's 'The Menace from Earth'
I (heart) PIR. Only trash I'm willing to go long on.
NYT is skying on Fed bailout possibility.
It will happen, gotta subsidize the Libs and their warped views of reality.
Put call today .33 (was .47 in January 2010)
Has been this low 3 times in the last decade:
1. Today
2. January 2004 (was actually .34)
3. March 2000
This time is different.
Scariest trivia tidbit I've heard for quite a while. I was in B-school in March 2000. Most surreal time of my life watching my small portfolio and job prospects simultaneously dwindle a little more every day.
It is happening at a great speed. America, act now! Voice yourselves now!
It really is true what they say...It's just no fun being a bear, especially one who has a chain hooked through his nose & has been dancing for Ben & Timmy for the last I don't know is it 50 f#*king days straight...good luck everyone & a very commendable well done to Leo, Cyan & that Wagner fellow who seem to have nailed it. Oh special thanks to Robot Trader for keeping me sane whilst burning alive.
You gotta hand to them. It sure looks like the all US companies are in unison and sh*tting gold coins according to the indices. Someone needs to get the memo to the real economy which can't get a loan.
This is either really f*cked up, or some kind of "new economy," and we've heard that one before in the tech craze. This one the new biz is "recovery."
We really do need the ZH monogrammed towel so we have one to throw in. Time to capitulate. Again. Up is the new up.
As for those gold coins if you rub them hard enough I swear you can see the brass
SouthPark - Cartman Craps Gold
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKanY1nS900
we need Cartman on this blog. You know if he were real, he'd be working at the JPMorgan prop desk.
I recall the tech bubble quite well, and this has the flair, and then some, of the final leg. That's not to say we can't go much higher, because we can.
It won't end well, I promise you, but I won't pretend to be able to call a top.
tech bubble? come on this isnt the tech bubble - people are more optimistic on and overweight tech now than then. this is worse.
merrill lynch fund survey:
Blended sentiment at record high
In our April fund manager survey published today, blended tech sentiment hits a record high level with regional sentiment in the US, Japan, Asia Pacific and UK improving while Europe and global mandate investors fell.
Everyone's favourite sector (except Europe and UK)
Tech is now investors' favourite sector in all regions except Europe (#5, #1 industrials) and the UK (#4, #1 financial services). Energy (Global mandate, US and Asia Pacific) and materials (Japan) are the second most overweight sectors in the regions where tech is top
like I said, "and then some." the mania is reaching new epic proportions, I agree.
The wildebeests are stampeding full blast ahead! All accounts green, no need to manage. Dow 12K by May 12 - party like it's 1999! Yihaaa! We need some chicks on this one...
Erm ... It's a bubble ... really ... just like China real estate ...
Well, China tonight again says they are going to fix that http://www.gov.cn/english/2010-04/14/content_1581085.htm
I just have no words for this. You can't even analyze this. There's no need. it is better not to see the charts because the parabolic will scare you out of getting in.
The only analysts who seem to matter are the fundamental guys who can tell people what retailers/REITS to buy now that everyone has missed the rally and needs to get in.
For laughs, here are comments from America's two biggest bankers in back to back Bloomberg stories.
Look at the comments from Bernake (top) and Dimon (bottom) and tell me which reflects reality?
First, Bernake comes out and gets all down in the mouth:
Bernanke said in testimony to Congress today. “Significant restraints on the pace of the recovery remain, including weakness in both residential and nonresidential construction and the poor fiscal condition of many state and local governments.
Then Dimon from JPM contradicts:
"China’s growing, India’s growing, Japan is growing, home prices have stopped going down, consumer income is up, consumers are spending, service and manufacturing indexes are up, inventories are still low, I could go on and on,” Dimon said. “This could be the makings of a good recovery. We don’t know for sure, but if you look at those factors, it’s pretty good.”
WTF?!....
When they say that the shorts are getting squeezed, my question is "What shorts?" Who is dumb enough to be short in this mess?
<raises hand meekly>.
I am prepared to receive my reward in the afterlife.
I am one of the idiots trying to short this crap - luckily I had a lot of Ford stock that kept some sanity within me
Last week, Steve Cohen's ex-wife said she is seeking to bolster her lawsuit. Fed up, he apparently ordered the troops at SAC Capital to "UNLEASH THE BEAST!!!":
Steve looks happy with #2:
And he's a lot more charitable. The Steven A. and Alexandra M. Cohen Foundation recently donated $50 million to pediatric care development at the campuses of the Long Island Jewish Medical Center in Hyde Park, New York and the North Shore University Hospital in Manhasset, New York.
Good work, nice gesture, and most of all, good luck with the crazy ex!!! When it's all over, you might want to buy another one of Munch's masterpieces:
Leo, you posted LSCC yesterday, nice call dewd !!!
Rambo (RMBS) had a nice day. next stop 25 ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjptQSfuTy8
Yup, all these semis are flying, including RMBS, AMAT, AMD, NSM, and RFMD:
The Proshares Ultra Semis is breaking out:
Cohen hopefully will be a 300 pound gorilla's girlfriend in the pokey soon.
I'm not participating in this -- at all. I feel like the designated eunich driver at a drunken orgy. I see what's happening, and know it's not right.
I did the opposite in the tech bubble -- I bought companies that had no earnings, whose products that had no intrinsic value, and whose management/leadership was just barely old enough to drink legally. And I did extremely well. But unlike last time, I don't think the market will be orderly when reality reasserts its grip. I'd hate to be out fly fishing on a Tuesday when the market decides to blow-up. What took 3 months to accumulate may take 3 hours to divest.
So I'll just remain an interested spectator in this amazing stunt!
Same here, but I'm taking a lot of crap from my wife for not being in. It ain't easy having convictions
You'll really be kicking yourself come Dec. 31 when the market hits 36,000.
+24877!
Amen, brother. Mine was in full-on freakout last year when she opened her 401k mailings, but I caught enough of the updraft to get us darn near even. (Thank you God, or PPT!) Progressively gone to 80% cash, the fraction of a percent I'm getting in money markets allows me to sleep at night. Cold friggin' comfort.
There is no alternative place to put savings right now. Savings account at .009% interest in a soon to be insolvent bank? Real estate? Manufactoring venture in a country with labor costs mega times the competitor? Only growth ventures in my town are consignment shops. My husband won't let me buy more gold so I am in WMT where everyone will go to horde supplies after this blows. I also have norweigan krones but know someone here can tell me that's a dumb idea.
I was but a young child in the great moderation. I remember lots of things such as Ronald Reagon patting me on the head, getting on a plane without TSA all up in my shit, and the little things like using checks and computer games like Oregon Trail. But I definetely don't remember the stock market being this demented.
I seem to recall the indexes moving like this between 1995 and 2000 and again between 2005 and 2007. As far as individual stock prices, oh, you ain't seen nothing yet if we get back to the tech bubble. And judging from the charts and 0% interest rates and the state of the economy this is a stock bubble. So, given that, how do you play the bubble?
Well, as for me, you buy the dips, using risk capital only, and pick a few leading stocks, a few popular spec plays, and some market exposure with ETFs. And don't forget the oil (USO).Oil will continue the upward march as well - I agree. It has to.
Total agreement. Risk capital only, remaining nimble and paranoid. Played thusly, the returns can be outrageous.
The Fourteenth Banker
http://thefourteenthbanker.wordpress.com/
the commenters are Fight Club II
please get your own domain .. all wordpress.com blogs are blocked in china .. thanks
vb asks: why are all wordpress blogs blocked?
Interesting. I see that a commentor there has your same outlook.
Thanks to the reference to a new, thoughtful blog.
The name of the game remains LIQUIDITY. Keep buying them dips, the financial elite will do everything they can to reflate assets. All non-believers who "refuse to participate" will eventually throw in the towel as they fight the tape led by $2 trillion in hedge fund assets, funded primarily by your underfunded public pension funds. Get on the liquidity express or you'll miss out on some huge gains, especially in the bubble sectors.
Nope, that whore is all yours.
Will the bubbles in those sectors ever pop?
Leo, I've seen you post this before, I very seriously want to understand it.
Your premise is pension funds are underfunded because of poor historical investment returns and lopsided cost structures (too few paying in, too many having claims), so they are giving 2 trillion dollars to hedge funds, now, after the market is up 75%
The hedge funds (a large number of which got so badly killed in 2008 that they had to throw gates up, not allowing money out) will now (after the 75% move, mind you) take that money and apply leverage to it and buy the lowest quality stocks they can find because they are "breaking out"
They will do this because some omnipotent being is pumping a never ending stream of "money" into the system and is guaranteeing the hedge funds that the low quality stocks never trade down, so the hedge funds can then guarantee the pension funds that they will recoup all prior losses and return themselves to fully funded status
In all sincerity, is that the argument?
So what if the market is up 75% from March lows? I can show you stocks that are up 300, 400, right up to 3000% from March lows. Many hedge funds got killed in 2008, but the better ones came roaring back in 2009. Don't forget, that even though there are thousands of hedge funds, only about 100 to 200 control these markets. Pension funds are looking for juice and they'll keep shoveling billions into hedge funds, propelling these markets higher. Watch, you'll see.
While I understand your basic premise that the market will keep rising because...just because. Do yo really believe that given the state of the RE market, to site one example, it is really justifiable for REIT's, homebuilders and banks to be trading at these prices? I suspect you know fully well the the vast majority of banks are sitting on mountains of toxic worthless shit which they are currently marking in their books at fantasy levels.
Do you really believe this market will continue to rise ad infinitum? Will there ever be a point at which people stop to ask..."is a triple digit PE ratio really reasonable"? "Is a stock with no real equity value worth chasing after it's ramped up over 200% in just a few days"?
I guess what I'm saying is...at what point are people too drunk on the kool-aid for you to deem the road to be too dangerous to travel?
If the point you're making is that there's money to be made chasing the momo of the CNBC pump de jour if you plan to trade in and out very quickly...just scalping...I cannot disagree with you. However, if you are in some way implying that there is any real fundamental value or logic in this market...I'll I can say to that is...sell crazy somewhere else..I'm all stocked up.
Yes, of course there will be a point where fundamentals kick in and prices correct, but don't forget what I keep telling all of you, the financial oligarchs want to reflate this sucker, and so far, they're succeeding.
and with no risk, no reward.
it sucks watching all this reward go by... must be some serious risk...
i'm still out - wasn't it thrifty that went up 3300% since march? and i would have been happy with 10%
heh
'Can you dig it'
Checkout SD with 30% short, looks like it turned.
Look at MGF down to the 200day, 7.1% agency junk is still guaranteed,
are rates going to rocket? Who knows?
"see if I can find more junkers to put up..."
Don't forget retail clothing. Can people really still be shopping?
Shopping you say...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLXQltR7vUQ&feature=related
In March 2000, there were numerous sectors that bottomed as tech topped, sectors that started declining in 1997-8. Think homebuilders, HMOs, general boring industrial co's.
Today the list is smaller, but . . . there is no bubble in insurers/reinsurers, discount retailers or even MCD. Or in gold.
Remember it's all just a fashion show.
With the trend remaining up, being anything other than long will hurt. Why ask why?
A stock market bubble is a good way to generate some juicy cap gains revenue for the Treasury (worked wonders in the 1990s), and reflate sagging pension and retirement assets. It's win win. You just can't let the bubble burst...lol.
So, we have "sanctioned" assets like stocks and Treasurys, and "non-sanctioned" assets like precious metals. One is sponsered, the other suppressed.
Diversification is key.
Gold smackdown ahead of each Treas auction. clockwork. They will do anything legal or otherwise to prop fiat.
I like NLC for boring -- water treatment (low $24s) and 40% revs from China, there's a boring for a reason. Water has to be future crisis. China can't use just cesspools for farm- fishing.
>> China can't use just cesspools for farm- fishing.
Well, um, actually ...
They saturate the fish farms with cheap antibiotics. This is standard practice everywhere (Thailand, Vietnam, ...).
Don't forget you're talking about people (Chinese producers) who will poison supermarket milk, in the pursuit of profits, even if it kills children. If non-cesspool water is too expensive, they're not going to use it.
I'm amazed aat all the bullishness from the normal bears on this thread--
It looks like the Kool Aid is being drank here, too???
who said you cant eat stocks
HOTT up another 13%
What do these emo and goth kids have to be so gloomy about?
anyone following COIN by chance?