This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Charting America's Transformation To A Part-Time Worker Society, Following 6 Straight Months Of Full Time Job Declines

Tyler Durden's picture





 

It is surprising that over the past several years very little has been said in the popular media about the fact that America is slowly (but surely) transforming from a full-time to part-time employed society. And while much has been said about the temporary and now past impact of census hiring, and government jobs on the workforce, there are still few mentions in mainstream media that since the depression started in December 2007, America has lost 10.5 million full time jobs, offset by a 2.8 million increase in part time jobs. Two recent mentions of this extremely troubling phenomenon were those by David Stockman, who characterized the recent unjustified economic (and naturally market) euphoria in terms that could have come straight from David Rosenberg's mouth, and, more recently, Van Hoisington. And since the Teleprompter in Chief has now made it a monthly pilgirmage to extol the NFP number no matter how manipulated by Birth-Death and seasonal adjustments, perhaps next time someone can ask him why the US not only lost 478k seasonally adjusted full time workers in November but has lost full time jobs for 6 months in a row, for a total of 1.6 million job losses! And since it is now clear that Americans only watch cartoons when it
comes to financial reporting, and, at worst, demand a chart, here is,
straight from the BLS' table A-9, the historical change of the US labor force.

And here is the sequential change in both full and part-time jobs. Note that after peaking in April and May, full time jobs have declined for 6 straight months:

In a nutshell: in December 2007 there were 121.7 million full time jobs, while 24.8 million Americans were part-time workers for economic reasons; fast forward to November 2010 where we find that 111.1 million employees are now full time, while the rank of the part-times have increased to 27.6 million. And it is not rocket science, that converting a population to part-time workers has a disastrous impact on wealth. As Stockman presented previously, discussing part-time employment "with an average wage of $20,000 a year, that is not a breadwinning job, you can't support a family on that, you can't save on that. Those jobs will not generate income that will become self-feeding into spending." Yet more and more people are forced to work part-time, even as full time working Americans are now at their lowest since February 2010. But for some odd reason the market remains transfixed that 39k very much adjusted and completely unrealistic people may have found a job on private payrolls in November, even as full time jobs dropped by 478k.

We can only hope that now that it has been charted for them, some of the less than captured MSM outlets will take this information and present it to the broader public which, when watching CNBC or tracking the S&P may get the impression that things are actually improving in the USSA.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:07 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

not only is obama america's prime turd and greatest liar, he is a quack of an economist....

www.obamacrimes.com

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:16 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

America's problems began long before Obama came along.  This is what you get when you let corporate greed run wild and send a bunch of "academics" in to solve the problem.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 00:15 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

academics became corporate prostitution like the rest of them and what idiot is junking anyone who admits the problems are bigger than one more whore? 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:30 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

Obama wasn't president in December 2007, or December 2008. This was a creation decades in the making.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:36 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes it really is ALL about kicking the can either forward in time, or back in time...the PRESENT is never relevant! Very convenient for the belly button gazing cowards, its always someone elses fault.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:40 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

The Afghan war and the Iraqi wars were both planned long before they were started also. 911 was not the real reason why we invaded either of those countries. It was just some convenient excuse, like someone said one time, a pivot point. Also if you will notice the so-called Patriot Act was lying around gathering dust, having been written long ago, and when the time was right, they dragged it out of hybernation and whola, guess who voted it in?  We have many traitors that must be dealt with in a most harsh manner, this I know.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:01 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

... er ... Clint:

"The Afghan war and the Iraqi wars were both planned long before they were started..."

There are a thousand "wars" (campaigns) planned within the five-sided puzzle palace.  That's their fricken jobs, after all.  We're watching 5027 with the FDOs and etc. in action as we speak.

Pop Quiz: Who was the proponent of the nascent "Patriot Act", who had it in his drawer?

- Ned

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 22:23 | Link to Comment loc-nar
loc-nar's picture

A- Joe Biden

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:43 | Link to Comment samseau
samseau's picture

Obama has made things 10x worse

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 22:17 | Link to Comment prophet
prophet's picture

I think you ascribe too much potential to the position.  No doubt, its been disappointing to say the least.  I wonder if the other side of that is that by tackling (in a most ugly way for sure) the biggest long term fiscal threat to the country there is bound to be much short term pain.  

If the housing/mortgage fix ever sees the light of day I think we may clear the last of the near term hurdles and see a melt up.

 

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:07 | Link to Comment unky
unky's picture

I guess the first chart should say "in thousands" instead of "in millions"

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

In essence, we have to start taxing "robots", that have created great efficiencies and reduced labor positions.  Then we'll just give those displaced workers a new job.  We'll give them money and tell them that consuming is their job now.  Multiplier effect, everything fixed in time.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:12 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

VAT

 

-not that I want one

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 06:36 | Link to Comment Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

But get one you will.

It is the last grasp at a straw.

It will be grasped.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

My reticence toward the VAT is all the shenanigans that will go into determining what constitutes VA and who will get exemptions.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:10 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Not possible, I was watching CNBC earlier and they only had good news to report.  There must be some kind of mistake.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:32 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

you see those 4 colored buttons on your remote?

THAT ARE YOUR DIGITAL PILL SELECTORS

I guess you pressed the blue one

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:59 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

...bootiful tutorial !

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 21:05 | Link to Comment Str8Gain
Str8Gain's picture

I presume they're meant to be taken orally? :-)

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:42 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

At least Mandy was on this morning. :)

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

My favorite to :)

Just press the mute button and watch those tits jiggle :)

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:13 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

Part-time work is good for Keynesians who believe they can cause prosperity by raising the minimum wage - by fiat. Dollars for everyone - because it is a human right!

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:02 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

I was raised on "sticky wages" thing.  Until I actually had to work and hire people.  Then, well, not so much. - Ned

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:16 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

For all who like to make comparisons with where the US is headed and Japan, their 5.1% unemployment rate hides a 34% rate of less than full-time workers.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:10 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

I was about to make the same observation, but you beat me to it.

According to the figures quoted above, part-timers are approximately 20% of the US labor force.

In terms of bubble economy collapse, Japan has at least a 15-year head start on us. But I would confidently bet that we get to (and well beyond) a 34% part-time ratio long before 2023.

 

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:27 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

Still, they will never catch Japan who continues to move in the wrong direction.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 06:44 | Link to Comment Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Want to bet a bottle of  Junmai Daiginjo sake, my manga friend.

Americans are not slow in competition. Proven in the past.

They will succeed in in winning this race (to the bottom)

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 20:32 | Link to Comment TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

they have a term in Japan for those who are in this constant struggle

it is called the herbivore man

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/07/japans-herbivore-men-young-ameri...

The 29-year-old laborer is one of a burgeoning class in Japan -- the working poor. The number of Japanese earning less than $19,610 a year surged 40 percent from 2002 to 2006, the latest data available, the government says. They now number more than 10 million.

In a country that boasts the world's longest-living population, where young women with Louis Vuitton bags crowd the sidewalks, Murasawa's is a voice of hopelessness and despair -- a voice increasingly heard in Japan.

"It is unprecedented to see such a widening income gap in Japan," said Yoshio Sasajima, economist at Meiji Gakuin University in Tokyo. "Our society is definitely becoming a class society."

A key to the growth of the working poor has been the explosion in temporary employment agencies, which allow corporations to take on labor without having to pay benefits -- and then unload workers at will.

The spike in the number of the working poor is already taking a toll on Japanese society. More people are putting off marriage because of tight finances, exacerbating a declining fertility rate. Part-time workers unable to afford rent sleep in 24-hour Internet cafes to escape the streets. Some have stopped going to the doctor because they can't afford it.

------------

Sound familiar?

Glad to see the mainstream economists (some of them) are picking on what some no name bloggers have been talking about for years.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:19 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

finite planet, finite growth.  Who is really surprised by any of this?  At what point does any dominant economic model deal with this?  The laws of Nature (thermodynamics and Physics) will always win in the end.  Too bad Americans don't study these fields anymore.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:37 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So the rumor that the FED has built a perpetual motion money machine is false?

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:20 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

"finite planet, finite growth."

"finite growth" is a meaningless statement in economics, because there is no means to quantify growth. There is no means to compare or to sum the subjective valuations of different people or even that of the same person at different times. According to Ludwig von Mises's Human Action,


"The attempts to determine in money the wealth of a nation or of the whole of mankind are as childish as the mystic efforts to solve the riddles of the universe by worrying about the dimensions of the pyramid of Cheops... what is the meaning of the items in a statement of a nation’s total wealth? What is the meaning of the computation’s final result? What must be entered into it and what is to be left outside? Is it correct or not to enclose the “value” of the country’s climate and the people’s innate abilities and acquired skill? The businessman can convert his property into money, but a nation cannot."

"The laws of Nature (thermodynamics and Physics) will always win in the end."

Your statement is specious because there is a yawning chasm separating the sciences of physics and economics. Physics can place no limit on the subjective value of a beautiful piece of art, or an engaging piece of music, or a delicious piece of food.

Entrepeneurs seek to alleviate people's felt uneasiness and are ultimately concerned with money returned over money invested, not bureaucratically-favored contrivances such as energy returned over energy invested; or other irrelevant calculations involving physical quantities.

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Sure, thats great. Physics isn't economics, got it.

Ok so how do you deal with the fact that growth requires greater physical inputs? Increase efficiency? Some conucopian solution no doubt. The scientists will create something! The OP was pointing out that scientists are worried about real world limits. There isn't a solution to what he's pointing out that I've ever read in an economics book. Unless we're talking Malthusian options. I'm guessing the blue bloods are leaning more towards old Thomas M. more by the day.

Seems like we need to figure out how to work on a contracting system until we can hit some sort of dynamic equillibrium point. Of course it requires voluntary limitation of population expansion as well. Again how is this dealt with ethically without drawing upon the nightmares of eugenics past?

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 20:41 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

"Ok so how do you deal with the fact that growth requires greater physical inputs?"

Not all economic growth requires greater physical inputs. For example, computers are physically much smaller and yet more powerful than they were in the past. Information like music can now be duplicated millions of times with virtually no physical presence, comprising mere electrons.

And if there is a dearth of physical inputs, say sunlight or food, that overwhelms mankind's ingenuity to cope, then one possible outcome is that people will die.

>Seems like we need

"We need" - a socialist's words.

>Again how is this dealt with ethically without drawing upon the nightmares of eugenics past?

I'm not sure what catastrophe you're worried about exactly. If it is overpopulation, note that in developed countries, people need children to help with agricultural labor much less, and reproduce much less often. I suspect people will colonize other moons and planets long before the inconceivably massive Earth is somehow overwhelmed.

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 22:37 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

Jevon's Paradox, bitch.

All you idiots with your efficiency shit...there are WAY MORE COMPUTERS NOW consuming WAY MORE megawatts!

Colonize other moons...HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.  Which ones, genius?

but...but...MUSIC can be duplicated.  Yeah, um all those electrons require power.  I can't be expected to waste time explaining this to you any further.  With all the extra efficiency, it's AMAZING that oil consumption has increased and so has electrical power demand, eh?

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 07:11 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

"there are WAY MORE COMPUTERS NOW"

Yes, I would call that growth. Thanks for backing up my argument.

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 22:42 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

what is so nightmarish about eugenics?

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 02:35 | Link to Comment MurderNeverWasLove
MurderNeverWasLove's picture

There wouldn't be anything nightmarish about eugenics if the eugenicists would all just FUCK OFF and DIE.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:39 | Link to Comment RKDS
RKDS's picture

It's not so much eugenics in and of itself as the people making the decisions.  The worthless boobs who will inevitably put us into a hole that something like eugenics is the only way out of will certainly not be among those written off as collateral damage.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:40 | Link to Comment Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

In nominal terms your correct - in real terms, you are very wrong.  In the world of actual physical transportation of real goods and the production of actual goods, depletion of the necesary raw inputs signify the potential for an economic/societal collapse.

  Classical economics says that innovation and creativity will manage transitions to new materials, but "creativity" cannot create real growth when we are confronted with collapsing EROEIs. 

Absent a scientific revolution in energy, our future will be characterized by a systemic contraction, rather than any kind of expansion [other than a hyperinflationary one, that is].

Sorry, physical limits win over economic fantasy.

Got shelter, water, & food?

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 20:44 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

""creativity" cannot create real growth when we are confronted with collapsing EROEIs... Sorry, physical limits win over economic fantasy."

For one who knows only physics, EROEI itself is meaningless: because of the conservation of mass-energy, one must have a unit EROEI in all cases. (When I throw a ball in the air I invest energy to yield a ball with a greater potential energy and slightly warmer air - the resulting increases in energy precisely equal to the amount expended.)

It is ingenuous to reject the science of economics as "fantasy" and then say we are imperiled because of a concept that only has meaning in the framework of economics.

My point is simply that EROEI is no more important or valid in the science of economics than is TROTI - taste returned on taste invested - another contrived ratio that a winery operator might confront.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 22:43 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

well, that just means that you're stupid, that's all.

Because EROI is critically important.  If you EXPECT or NEED that ball to return more energy coming down than going up, then you're fucked, aintcha?

See, without surplus power none of this shit you see blinking in front of your face right now would exist.

EROI matters in economics because surplus energy is what does all the doing. 

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 06:48 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

You are speaking complete nonsense.

 

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 00:02 | Link to Comment samsara
samsara's picture

Suppose I gave you 10 gallons of gas to you per day.  But,  I kept moving 1 mile away from you each day.   Pretty soon,  you would be using all the gas I was giving to you just to come and get the gas I am giving you.  

Then my friend it doesn't matter what the price is anymore, because it's irrelevent, and extraneous to the physics involved.

EROEI

 

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 06:44 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>Pretty soon,  you would be using all the gas I was giving to you just to come and get the gas I am giving you.  

If no workaround (like an extensible tube) were possible, then the transactions with you will begin to generate financial losses and I will cease them. I need not consider EROEI at all in my entrepeneurial calculations.

In fact, if I pay attention to EROEI, I will err. Because I will be neglecting the wear-and-tear on my car and consumption of my time (spent driving) and I will end up dealing with you longer than I should have. More useful than EROEI would be the financial revenues divided by financial costs. And of course you know that (a/b) + (c/d) does not generally equal (a+c)/(b+d). EROEI is a contrived ratio of partial data and it conveys useless if not harmful and misleading information.

>Then my friend it doesn't matter what the price is anymore, because it's irrelevent

I'm not sure what you're trying to prove exactly. Human beings, as elements of the universe, are of course subjected to the laws of natural science. But laws of physics are only a part of one's planning. What about mathematics, chemistry and biology? One must consider the thoughts and plans of those around them. One must consider market prices and predicted future market conditions.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 08:56 | Link to Comment samsara
samsara's picture

If it takes you all the energy you get just to get it,  It's a no win situation.  Plain and simple.

If it takes you a barrel of oil to discover, drill and pump and transport that barrel of oil.... 

If you don't understand that,  Then stay in the field of Finance.

Drilling in 5000 feet of water then another 10,000 feet in rock,  well, the industry is almost there.

Now mention how bakken will save us.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 00:22 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

EROEI is about the most unmeaningless concept we deal with. The doctorate is in what?

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 07:07 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>EROEI is about the most unmeaningless concept we deal with.

Why do you deal with it? I'm guessing it's for one of the following reasons:

1. You are subjected to the desires of an entrepeneur or manager, who is ultimately interested in financial profit and views EROEI as a good approximation for achieving the real objective (money), even though it is essentially a meaningless ratio of partial data (physical quantities) and not a meaningful ratio all relevant financial aspects to the problem.

2. Or, you are in some kind of academic or bureaucratic environment disconnected from production aimed at satisfying consumer's felt uneasiness.

I know successful farmers who have NO CLUE what EROEI is.

What is the EROEI of a potato? The return is the caloric energy yielded through digesting the potato. The investment is the energy expended on digging, maintaining, and harvesting the potato. Now, do potato farmers spend their time wringing their hands over optimizing EROEI? Or do they worry about other factors, like choice of land, potato prices, potato futures, crop rotation practices, kinds of potatoes, capital investments, etc.? Why is it that EROEI is not on their radar?

Could it possibly be because contrived ratios like EROEI have no general economic significance?

 

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 04:57 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

For one who knows only physics, EROEI itself is meaningless: because of the conservation of mass-energy, one must have a unit EROEI in all cases. (When I throw a ball in the air I invest energy to yield a ball with a greater potential energy and slightly warmer air - the resulting increases in energy precisely equal to the amount expended.)

 

What do you mean for one who knows only physics? Mass-energy conservation? What do you mean exactly?

Reading you, I am under the impression that because of mass energy conservation, you somehow postulate the possibility of perpetual movement.

Mass energy conservation is one aspect of reality. The dispersion of energy is another one. And I cant imagine that one who knows only physics can ignore the second aspect.

So what do you mean exactly?

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 06:22 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

"So what do you mean exactly?"

EROEI cannot be defined without defining what a "return" or "investment" is; these terms are provided meaning only in the framework of economics. Without economics you have merely EOE - energy over energy, i.e. unity - a rather useless metric.

EROEI is an element of the human sciences. It is foolhardy for those who have failed to learn the science of economics to speak of EROEI as if they know what they are talking about.

Plus, energy is not the only conserved quantity in physics. Where non-nuclear physics prevails, why not also worry about the number of atoms returned (AROAI) for each kind of chemical element? Like energy, some kinds of atoms are also very precious and rare. If it is EROEI that is worried about in a free market and not AROAI, then you can be sure monetary considerations are the primary motive.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 07:45 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

A rather worthless metric?

Dimensioning, scaling is based on the principle. Given the benefits this principle delivers, maybe indeed, it is once again a matter of defining worthless.

 

This useless metric yields a direct means of comparing two systems one with another as it is easily leads to measuring efficiency.

Claiming that efficiency does not matter in physics or mathematics, that is big.

So if this useless metric allows a mathematician to reduce  time required to performed the number of computations needed to solve a problem from beyond his life time to a couple of months, that is an economics concern and can not be a mathematical concern?

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 04:51 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

More framing than anything else.

Large parts of economics are mere accounting so you can definitively objectively measure a growth in productions of various items.

Your stance simply frames a possible decline in a way to deliver an acceptable perception of the outcome: as the production of goods decline,  their valuation is likely to increase and therefore a growth term can be mixed in.

Once you lost a leg, the other one gets more valuable. Therefore growth.

Nothing more than apologism by a segment of population who pitifully failed to deliver what they claimed to be able to deliver. 

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 07:16 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

"you can definitively objectively measure a growth in productions of various items."

Which household is objectively better, one where the person earns $200,000 but has no leisure time, or one where the person choose to earn $20,000 but in exchange has tons of leisure time? Is a transition from the first to the latter a "growth" or a "shrinkage"?

Unless you can answer this simple question when 2 variables (income vs. leisure time) are involved then you have no hope of answering reallistic questions with 10,000 variables.

"Once you lost a leg, the other one gets more valuable. Therefore growth."

It is entirely subjective. For pegleg manufacturers, someone losing a leg is a financial plus.

"Nothing more than apologism by a segment of population"

Speaking of apologism, where is your apology for your multiple errors?

 

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 07:21 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Income vs leisure time?

What has it to do with my comment? Income in itself  fails to measure anything as money does not meet the requirement of a unit measure.

Time can be measured. Leisure time is much less  open to measure as leisure itself cannot be measured.

Economics is mostly accounting.

In my comment, I reported about two measurable entities: products vs time.

Requesting from me an answer that has nothing to do with my point is strawsman.

For a pegleg manufacture, someone losing a leg is a financial plus? Only if the person has the means of interacting with the pegleg manufacturer.

And it was not the point: the point was that under the value banner, the loss of a leg implies growth in value. People who lose one leg value more their remaining leg than they used to value the two of them. No third  party implied.

If you count your own mistakes as mine, well, I would indeed have to apologize.

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 22:33 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

Somebody JUNKED this?

Whoever you are, fuck you!  LOL, you're junking the fucking Laws of Thermodynamics?  wow

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 23:55 | Link to Comment samsara
samsara's picture

See my post above.  They will be introduced to thermodynamics and physics up close and personal not by name necessarily.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 00:26 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"not by name" - very nice

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 00:21 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Is the surface of a planet the right place for an expanding
technological civilization?

If not, then come up with a solution!

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:38 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture
  • The U.S. economy (GDP) grew by an average of 3.8% from 1946 to 1973 while real median household income surged 55% (or 1.6% a year).
  • US has had slower GDP growth since 1973 (averaging 2.7%), and nearly stagnant living standards, with household incomes increasing by 10%, or only 0.3% annually.
  • Early 1991 to late 2000 GDP grew at 43% (3.8% a year) during “internet boom”.
  • Prez / CBO estimate GDP growth for 2012 to 2020 @ up to 1.5x’s “internet boom” growth rates???
  • The United States is the world's largest manufacturer, with a 2007 industrial output of US $2.7 trillion. In 2008, its manufacturing output was greater than that of the manufacturing output of China, India, and Brazil combined, despite manufacturing being a very small portion of the entire US economy as compared to most other countries
  • In January 2004, the number of such jobs stood at 14.3 million, down by 3.0 million jobs, or 17.5 percent, since July 2000 and about 5.2 million since the historical peak in 1979.
  • America is the worlds #1 exporter, does more with less, and requires higher levels of education to do it.  Don’t blame China, blame technology, innovation, automation, and a cost disadvantage for unskilled American labor.  America manufactures slightly more stuff than China and at 3x’s the total income with 1/10 the jobs in China manufacturing.  We still manufacture approx 25% of the worlds stuff (chemicals, ag, high tech, blah blah) but it's just not a jobs driver!!!

 Without job growth in construction, manufacturing leaves a mighty big hole.  Maybe we can all become blogging pseudo economists and explain to each other why and how it's all fucked?  No, guess Mish and KD already got it covered.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:38 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture
Cost of Living 1973

Yearly Inflation Rate USA 6.16%
Yearly Inflation Rate UK 8.4%
Year End Close Dow Jones Industrial Average 850
Average Cost of new house $32,500.00
Average Income per year $12,900.00
Average Monthly Rent $175.00
Cost of a gallon of Gas 40 cents
AMC Javelin car$2,900.00
A Dozen Eggs 45 cents 
Average House Price 9,942 

http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/1973.html

 

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 05:54 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

List price on a 71 ford Maverick with Air Conditioning and V8 was just a hair over 3,000 dollars in 73.

Pa bought a little Datsun that maybe got one fillup each week on 5 bucks if that.

In the early 80's I picked up a new car for 7600 with air and 43 miles to gallon plus extra horses on the 4 cylinder and 5 speed. Interest was 15%

Two years ago we bought a used buick for less than 10K and it's paid for and maintains 30 miles to gallon. Interest was irrevelant and so was the dealer warrantry that they tried to sell for an extra 5000 dollars. Cash sale that night was so difficult for them to swallow.

Live on 20K? Been doing that on half that amount part time for years now. Our budget is in the black most of the time and we are reducing what little debt there is aside from student loans.

We poured money into the house to replace everything obselete and reduced our electric use from 1400 kWh monthly to less than 300 kWh and water from 6500 gallons down to 1800 max knowing our water bill is rising for the next three years no matter what.

The house is free and clear too. The cost of feeding and care for it as far as insurance and so forth is less than that of apartment renting.

Just gots to move to a place with lower cost of living. Get the hell out of the Coast where you cannot get anything less than 400K for a house.

We managed to reduce income a bit further to maintain a consistent tax cost each year.

Yes we are part time and life is good. Not rat race hectic and running about panting for a breath of air under the boss's thumb all the time. They can stick it.

The best thing about Temp work is when the job itself is finished, say at 11 AM. Clock out and go home.

The rest of the Salaried and full time hourly workers get to sit around the rest of the day riding the clock and fighting off fatique induced sleep and post lunch sugar crash waiting until 5 pm to quit and go home.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:42 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

China Becomes World’s No. 1 Exporter, Passing Germany  January 10, 2010

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/11/business/global/11chinatrade.html?_r=1

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:01 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

Alright, my info was '08...anyway, you get the point.  From 73 to '08...

US manu /GDP ratio gone from 24% to 13%

US Global share of manu gone from 25% to 23%

manu jobs (as share of workforce) in US has gone from 27% to 9%

 

Point is, we're gonna half to maintain manufacturing but it won't be the job driver and we'll do well just to maintain what we have.  Point is, now what?  We need a whole new paradigm around work and jobs.  Move back toward a more agrarian model to increase the % of folks working in ag from 1% to 3%?  That won't do it...what will?

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:20 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

 That won't do it...what will?

Manu is key, no doubt about it. People need to trade, consume the stuff they produce and have leftovers to export. China will get a middle class that will be consuming stuff made in China and become self sustaining like USA used to be. Begin by rejecting globalism and invent 5 year moratorium on any kind of taxation on products 100% made in USA and forget wasting money on bailouts. Eventually tax revenue will increase as less is sent overseas. JMHO.

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:45 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

"We need a whole new paradigm"

"We need" - the words of a socialist.

"Move back toward a more agrarian model to increase the % of folks working in ag from 1% to 3%?  That won't do it...what will?"

Like Ben Bernanke, you are incapable of solving the problem on your own. The only solution is to free up entrepeneurs to compete and find the solutions themselves by reacting to market prices and seeking profit and avoiding financial losses. In other words, get rid of red tape. Let Joe the Plumber fix someone's toilet without threatening him with jail time and lethal violence for the crime of being unlicensed. Lift the ban ("minimum wage") that prevents two people from exchanging a certain amount of money for a certain amount of labor in the "Land of the Free". Cease committing criminal robberies ("taxation") against entrepeneurs. Return to a gold standard and cease criminal counterfeiting ("monetary policy") that causes booms and busts, leading to wild hypertrophy and collapses in the structure of production. Stop incarcerating people who've committed the crime of growing the wrong kind of plant. Don't imprison people for having a feloniously stuffy nose http://mises.org/daily/4775. Don't imprison people for selling a 1.7 gallon toilet http://mises.org/daily/3997 etc....

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:51 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

I think you are suggesting we try free market capitalism?  Novel idea. 

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 00:47 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

JFC, the minimum fucking wage is NOT THE PROBLEM and never fucking has been.

The rest of it I can buy into.

But entrepreneurs can't print oil either

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 07:18 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>JFC, the minimum fucking wage is NOT THE PROBLEM and never fucking has been.

Blaspheme much?

Why not try learning economics instead? http://www.fee.org/pdf/books/Economics_in_one_lesson.pdf

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:00 | Link to Comment puckles
puckles's picture

Your data are exceedingly outdated.  We are the world's #5 manufacturer, currently.  Soon to drop far further.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:04 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

1- Manufacturing ain't dead but it won't provide the jobs growth either.

2- Will you share the best current data hot spot

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 23:19 | Link to Comment MarkS
MarkS's picture

WRONG.  As of the end of July 2010 the US still had a slight lead in manufacturing over China ($1.7T to $1.66T annualized) for number one.  It is probably very close right now given our pickup in manufacturing output recently.  And, then again, you'd have to beleive the Chinese governments' numbers.

As far as exports are concerned, they are a false measure in many ways.  You can mark anything for export and then stick it in a warehouse like they do in China.  Exports should only be counted when they become imports to another country.  That's why it makes far more sense to look at global trade thru the lense of imports because it is a 'truer' number and can't be fudged nearly as easily.  AND, using that the measure of imports we are still a 10% below 2007 numbers in global trade.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 23:45 | Link to Comment samsara
samsara's picture

"..America is the worlds #1 exporter, does more with less, and requires higher levels of education to do it.  Don’t blame China, blame technology, innovation, automation, and a cost disadvantage for unskilled American labor....."

 

That's a major contributer.  Watch that TV program called "How It's Made"  or something like that.

I saw them make something like 100,000 twinkies or candy Bars per hour.   And they had a 24/7 staff of 5 people for the whole plant. 

When I was young, 40-50 years ago, we had local soda bottlers who only did a few 10's of quarts per hour.  But there were numerous of them and each local.

One observation, today, the twinkie plant can't even turn the machines on unless they have a run in the millions of units.    It's ALL or NOTHING. 

Why the the disparity?   LOW ENERGY COST.   It was cheaper to centralize the bottling and truck it or ship it to the local plant for distribution.

You can ship those twinkies ANYWHERE overnight.  I eat Raspberries from a S.A.  flown in overnight for cheaper than local produced.

Everything is centralized, maximized and distributed with low margins and increase in volume and Growth as an operating given. 

Now then,  I think(and many many others) that you will see this short time frame occurrance of cheap energy(and incredibly energy dense) fuel following a progression like M.Hubbert's peak in his graphs....

In a not tooo many years, it will no longer be profitable to ship Macadamin Nuts from Hawaii to Virginia for a price I would pay.  And MANY MANY other different products also. 

Globalism is going into retrograde.  But it will be a long and painful process.  The 10 plants that I watched my company close and move overseas are gone. The skilled laborers, AND the Entire Machines and Everything are gone.

Long hard road to replacing whole industries.

While only needing 1/5 the workforce while you do that.... 

Future Common Occupation ?    Farm Laborer

 For a rough Idea Fig. #4 on this page.  It's a Classic.

http://dieoff.org/page224.htm

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 00:34 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

excellent post.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 00:54 | Link to Comment samsara
samsara's picture

Thank you.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:51 | Link to Comment RKDS
RKDS's picture

I just don't get how we can truthfully be the world's largest manufacturer and exporter.  Almost nothing for sale at any store is made here.  The situation is a little better when I shop online but there are still so many classes of product that have zero domestic suppliers.  Honestly I am inclined to believe such a statement is premium grade bullshit in the same league as "core" CPI.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:22 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

I had a dream just last night that America was a single person who had a huge amount of debt, but their hours kept getting cut.  He thought he could reduce his debt by spending more money on consumption, and by beating his family and extracting money from them (taking their allowances back).

*sigh*

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:33 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Pretty close to my dream...In my debt dream, I see an alcoholic with a mean crystal meth habit and a penchant for buggery with 10 maxed out credit cards, but happy because he magically just got a new one to max out. Times are good indeed.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 00:42 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

he got caught in possession but his banker dad bought out the judge with some money he stole

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:35 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

a nation of sheep, begets a government of wolves

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:44 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

go on.  seriously.  cause without any inhibitors (natural predators, sheep herders w/ high powered rifles, or in our case, enforced laws, constitution, etc) the wolves destroy the sheep population til they themselves are too numerous, the food supply is gone, and they die of starvation.  One can only hope the wolves will find greener pastures when they are done here <sarc>.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:39 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I must say, that in these last 2 years, I've never known more people working part time then any time before.

BUT

Not because it was forced upon them.

NO!

THEY WANT TO WORK PARTIME!

All that stress and all. These people are between 30 and 40 years old, and don't care anymore about making more money and working harder. They are fed up with it.

They want to make more time for their family and kids.

And to be honest, I can't blame them.

These last few weeks, I decided to stop working overtime. I stopped picking up my cell phone after work when I see it's somebody from work. And I must say, I start to feel so much better now.

It's just not worth it to work like a animal.

I work 35 hours a week, and to be honest, if it where possible to cut 8 hours from that, I might even do it. It's not like they take 1/5 of your paycheck, I checked it and it was about 250 euro a mont less. That buys you a lot of extra quality time.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:42 | Link to Comment CheapKUNGFU
CheapKUNGFU's picture

errr, ummm, in a couple more years, little kids will be asking "daddy, what was that EURO thingy all about"?

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

DADDY: Well, it was something like the dollar.

KID: HUH?

DADDY: The money the United States used

KID: The United what?

DADDY: That place on the other side of the Ocean where those poor people live.

KID: AH YES! But.... did they had money?

DADDY: Well euh.... They didn't but they had plastic cards that allowed them to spend money that didn't existed and which they didn't needed to pay back. And when 1 card stopped working they just took another card.

KID: But why didn't they keep on using those plastic cards?

DADDY: There just wasn't enough oil in the world to produce enough cards for them to keep on going.

 

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 05:58 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Or better yet, teach the child about Pound Sterling and Dutsche Marks and the French Franc before the Euro bullshit came along. Hell the Euro's Headquaters looks like a unfinished Tower of Babel.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 20:20 | Link to Comment huntsmontana
huntsmontana's picture

Work like a colony of ants and your quality of life will mimic theirs.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:43 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

I think part time work is great. I think a reduction in living standards as measured in icrap is beneficial. Now, if we can get the government to go fractional time and get the hell out of our lives- I think we can make this work.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:09 | Link to Comment puckles
puckles's picture

That was tried previously in Britain, in terms of reduction in living standards; Thatcher was elected, at least in part, to put an end to it.  In 1979, my husband took his first sabbatical in England after reaching tenure.  He was affiliated with a university in Southwest England.  After numerous visits to colleagues' homes, he described them as "living on gruel, and the children played with sticks, and string."  Admittedly, they did not have the benefit of Icrap, nor did they require health clubs or diet drugs.  Arguably, a target to aim for...:(

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 20:09 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

We fail to realize the cost of government in our lives. The elimination of all that can be tolerated and then eliminated again and again would place us on a road where part time work would provide an acceptable standard of living versus the degree of liberty gained. 

Before modern times, man worked three hours a day to provide the necessities of life. Part time is much greater than that.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:46 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

SPX is at just about 2.5yr highs so yes i DO believe the american economy is doing excellent - the media tells me so as well. I am not blind. I am just J6P.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 20:38 | Link to Comment TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

aside from the liquidity invasion people are not getting the point that many US multinationals increasingly don't need Americans.

So we can have sustained high unemployment and booming profits. Especially so when government continues to cut taxes AND increase social programs to keep spending higher than it would be for the formerly full time employed or "employed at all". It's full ponzi.

By not working many people now have much more time to shop to boot!

Yes eventually it would crumble if the US cannot continue to borrow, devalue, et al to keep feeding the sheeple monies they once earned via this thing called work. But now 1 in 5.5 dollars of income for average American comes from government. Think about that... almost 20 of every 100 dollars comes from our benevolent dictators. Than think about what the landscape would be if that money was not there ... instant 17-18% "income" decrease across US landscape. S&P profits would be quite so rosy but for now with those extra bucks we can all go to the dollar store, use that extra stash for the Coach bag we 'deserve', or get over to Chipotle for a few extra meals out a month.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:49 | Link to Comment TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

It's part of a long trend that began in the 1960s, when it was no longer certain that you'd spend your whole life with a single employer. Now, it's no longer certain that you'll spend a whole week with a single employer. No more pensions! Just when we need Social Security, it's gone.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 00:32 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Check out: "Uncommon Cents - Benjamin Franklin's Secrets to Achieving Personal Financial Success", ISBN: 0-939817-06-3, by Lynn G. Robbins

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:56 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

But there is no deflation, couldn't be with Helicopter Ben at the helm.

And Global Warming is real.  Funny though, even the geezers can't remember it ever getting this cold on the Kaylina Shore.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 18:57 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Friend of mine works for the employment office of the state -- he's been saying for two years there's no jobs coming back for those getting laid off, and when they do, they'll be for half the money the average person used to make.

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Patrick Bateman
Patrick Bateman's picture

I find the redundancy Of zerohedge to be great, but it should be great. The very bottom line, the bottom of all bottoms, is to understand money creation, what backs it, who governs it etc. All of your tax arguments, government spending arguments, budget balancing arguments, are complete straw men unless you realize, research, and inform people about central banking, american history, and fractional reserve banking. Everything else is straw man, bullshit.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:36 | Link to Comment Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Definitely one of the keys.

Step 1: Restore constitution/bill of rights.

Step 2: End FED and outlaw private central banking.

Step 3: End wars and withdraw from Imperial ambitions to strategic defense points.

Step 4: Steal under pants.

Step 5: Profit.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

"Step 1: Steal the underpants; Step 3: profit!"

LMFAO...  I love that shit.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:06 | Link to Comment lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Expatriate bitchez. Those Thai chicks dig us. Don't even ask for a house when it's over. Things to like.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 22:20 | Link to Comment Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

He is right guys.  Go teach english and then set up an American hamburger joint and chicken wings cheese fries.  Call it the greasy american and you will probably get rich.  Even if you don't get rich you will have all the chicks you want.  Hot AIDs free chicks too.  Just test them.  My friend is old fat and bald and he has a hot young thai wife.  they are also very traditional.  they exist to serve you!

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:09 | Link to Comment DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

IMF World Economy Rules for 2011 :

1. When you're bankrupt, just make pretend your're not.

2. If capital falls below required levels, reduce requirements immediately

3. Keep promising tax cuts and revenue reductions when expenses exceed revenues.  See rule 1.

4. Lie to the middle class - reassure them that "austerity" is a good thing.

5. Downplay all revolts, protests and riots as temporary disruptions, See rule 4.

6. If Markets become unstable then re-introduce Warren Buffett on CNBC to tell all it's a great time to buy.

7. Increase dividends to compensate highly paid executives while reducing worker salaries and hours.

8. Buy any and all things made in China

9. Support housing prices at all costs.

10. Support auto production at all costs.

 

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:16 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

11 - If any doubt, have Central Bank whip it out.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:32 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

TSA will be the inspector.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:11 | Link to Comment spank-of-america
spank-of-america's picture

$36,000 a year is the new black.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:25 | Link to Comment Free Money for all
Free Money for all's picture

So no full time jobs out there, what then, whats the end game for the U.S.A

How much more money can the Fed print?

Why are the super rich and not so super rich still getting an tax cut next year

To hell with all the dirty people in D.C.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:27 | Link to Comment DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

I think they can print until they run out of ink..... ? 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:32 | Link to Comment Free Money for all
Free Money for all's picture

Well it take a life time, get from china pay in dollars. Money makes the world go round.

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:54 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

"Why are the super rich... still getting an tax cut.. . To hell with all the dirty people in D.C."

This has two possible interpretations:

"I'm a tax-slave, and my master (the state) has robbed me. I want robberies commited against others too, so I can feel better."

or

"I'm a parasite. I want robberies commited against others and then have the wealth be transferred to me."

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 00:54 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

the bankster and K street rich ARE THE FUCKING PARASITES.

So what if they get taxed more, they LIVE OFF OF OTHERS' TAXES

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:50 | Link to Comment ivolatility
ivolatility's picture
The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Decline 1895-1905

the parallels outlined in this book, are uncanny and terrifying..

  When measuring power, perceptions matter, one ought not play the role of a great world power absent the universal faith that you indeed are.. The book outlines a multi-faceted decline in; Economic, Military, Political, Diplomatic power and prestige that metastases in Britain   Excerpt:   "Underlying this self-confidence, providing the most visible evidence of Britain’s superiority to other nations and giving the country the means and the desire to exert it's will overseas, was the unrivaled and awesome productive engine of the British domestic manufacturing economy. Britain was universally known to be "the workshop of the world", was able to produce and profit more prodigiously than any other nation on earth."
Mon, 12/13/2010 - 20:27 | Link to Comment TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

Talked about this about 10 months ago

U.S. used to have 'just in time inventory' but not it has engulfed labor.  Easy on, easy off.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/02/usa-today-use-of-temps-to-fill-j...

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 21:22 | Link to Comment CulturalEngineer
CulturalEngineer's picture

More part-time work in itself may not be so bad. It's worthwhile remembering that back in the 50's and for a long time before that... a significant part of the adult population didn't participate... before women entered the 'wage' dominated workforce.

It's all about how a civilization ends up using its 'social energy'...

I'm all for equality of the sexes... so its really just a matter of what kind of endeavors you value...

Personally I believe we'd be better off with more time NOT in the wage economy... but more 'social energy' going into better families and communities... and it doesn't have to be with all the women in the kitchen and the men playing 'breadwinner'...

(my dream was always to be a house husband with a rich wife... didn't happen... oh well)

On Social Energy, Enterprise and Expanding the Technology of Money

http://culturalengineer.blogspot.com/2010/01/on-social-energy-enterprise-expanding.html

Re-Igniting the Enlightenment: On Building Landscapes for Decision

http://culturalengineer.blogspot.com/2010/12/re-igniting-enlightenment-on-building.html

My suggestion! Don't let the mindless machine driving mindless consumption drive a blind humanity to mindless slavery...

 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 22:15 | Link to Comment Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

this is typical for  the third world.  I used to hear some black people say "work like a Jamaican" and I asked about that and apparently most Jamaicans have several part time jobs, typically four or five, because you might lose one or two.  Then I saw an article about it in Jamaica.  Scary.  I guess four part time jobs is one full time job plus a little insurance.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 22:35 | Link to Comment Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

That was a STL skit.  "I got five million tings to do, mon!"

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 22:44 | Link to Comment Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

apparently it is also true.  But they look so relaxed in the commercials!  Comb to Jamaica mon.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 22:30 | Link to Comment prophet
prophet's picture

How is it that Germany is not taking on water like Japan did and the US is? 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 22:33 | Link to Comment Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Beg to differ.  Recession started in summer of 2007, but nobody noticed...

New normal is working 2x for .5x pay, but I have personally been working the equivalent of  part time for the last couple of years.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 23:29 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The end of 'The Great Moderation' is leading to The Great Indigestion. Overcapacity was built into the productive economy to the greatest degree possible. That's coming back to haunt. So is mismanagement of global resources. All compounded by the global dollar glut. 

The Great Moderation was truly The Age of Excess, without the wildness. 

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 00:54 | Link to Comment George Costanza
George Costanza's picture

Sadly, I am starting to think that the economy has made a structural adjustment, mostly thanks to the government paying extended unemployment and food stamp benefits.. adjusting to 17% U6 unemployment - that's the new normal.   Corporations have moved on, and leaving the 17% where they are, powerless even to do damage to the economy.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 06:08 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

The Corperations themselves are moving headquarters constantly to lowest taxes anywhere in the world. Anything they can do to stop bleeding taxes they will do it.

Didnt Gore Recently berth his yacht in Rhode Island instead of Mass to avoid taxes there?

 

Eventually all these people on unemployment will start starving local and county governments of tax revenue within 2 years. You watch.

No fire? No schools? No water? No street dept? No town?

 

*Disclaimer, 95% of my local revenue tax each year goes STRAIGHT to the school system. The rest are pittance going to keep the other depts I listed barely existenal.

 

30 years ago I hear workers bitch and moan because they have no time to do anything. ten years ago I hear workers bitch and moan because they were putting in too much time to make up for those that quit or had jobs shipped out.

Now I hear workers still there bitch and moan because the Temps are in better health, happier than they are and they are enjoying the rest of a good sunshiny day with time to do different things they want that does not cost much while the full timers are stuck.

Eventually the entire country ten years from now will bitch and moan because the Government cannot collect enough taxes on zero income.

 

Finally the current year the homeowners like me bitch and moan when we have to spend thousands fixing something while the renter can go buy a 50" flat screen TV and a theater surround system to match the plush love nest furnature for those Thai chicks coming over soon.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 10:07 | Link to Comment Dabale arroz a ...
Dabale arroz a la zorra el abad's picture

I find this chart somewhat misleading, although it has the right units and so. Looking at it it seems as if now there were more part time workers than full time...

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

A friend of mine needed a part-time stock clerk to run around and pack goods into boxes for shipment to customers.  She ran an ad in the local college newspaper.  Lo and behold she received 17 job applications from college graduates.  She now has a college grad with a 3.7 GPA filling boxes.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 10:54 | Link to Comment AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

And that's what I hate about these Austrians. They all fall for the belief that something finite can somehow become infinite. In other areas, this way of thinking is called madness.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!