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Charting America's Transformation To A Part-Time Worker Society (Part 2) And Parting Thoughts On The Household Survey
Before we finally leave the topic of today's NFP data, we wanted to point out one last thing. While the total payroll number increased by 244K, the household survey indicated a drop of 190K. While this may be simply due to a calendar shift in which the Household survey catches up with the Establishment Survey, we wanted to bring readers' attention to one other fact. Observing the Household data breakdown into full time and part time workers, we see that the drop was actually more pronounced: while the March full time (112.755 MM) and part time (27.087MM) total summed nicely to the total headline number of 139,864, off by just 2K, the April data indicated that the component breakdown highlighted a much more pronounced drop in the headline number than the 190K indicated. Summing up the components adds to 139.572 MM, 102K less than the total 139.674 MM disclosed. In other words, the true drop when summed across components was not 190K, but 290K. And next, for the focus of this post, we look at whether this drop occurred in full time or part time jobs. To our complete lack of surprise, of the 290K drop, 291K was from full time jobs. As for part time jobs, you guessed it, increased by 1,000 in April. As the attached chart shows, since the start of the depression, America has lost 9.1 million full time jobs, offsetting this by a gain of 2.3 million part time jobs. No need to outsource to Asia any more: America now outsources jobs to temp agencies. And so the transition of America into a part-time worker society, first discussed in December of 2010 continues.
Oh, don't expect to get this data anywhere else.
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Don't expect to get this data as in MSM blackout, or not available besides here?
Available everywhere, reported nowhere (but here). Also unreported, abso-fucking-lutely pathetic growth in average hourly earnings.
Now if only Erin could take Pisani with her.....
ummmm, PSLV now up 8%, boooyah. Should of really backed up the truck yesterday, only took a small position...
Missed it. Did they fire Burnett?
Pisani, brain-dead Haines, pffk-head Kernan, Cabrera, .... get rid of 'em all.
Did you say something, Tyler? I can't focus with CNBS giving Erin Burnett a standing O(bama) at the NYSE. They are giving her....wait for it...a PIECE OF THE NYSE FLOOR!!! OMG! Also she has been to 69 countries. 69, lul. Beat that, bitchez!
Anybody else want to choke Sharon Epperson (or is it Berther Coombs) when she goes into her "ahhhhhh" moment every fucking time she's on. "Oil is ahhhhhhhh umm ehhh eek down $1" go fuck yourself.
Tyler, I'm starting to think your not entirely onboard with this economic RECOVERY we have going on. Where did I put that DHS suspicious activity hotline number...?
Please allow me to assist with a short cut.
Dial 1-800-HerndonTroll
Until the debt requires more reward the fed can say and print what they want, unchalleged. Fundamentals matter - only fundamentals since everything else is complete bullshit fantasy. Wonder if pretty ladies in the MSM can get part time MSM work?
And the $ USD rally lasted exactly one day... nothing to see here move along ppl.
Also I just BTFD on Apmex.
I just cant buy something with high premiums unless it is for long term storage.
Uh these premiums are higher than normal but nothing compared to what's coming. I'm in it for the mid to long term with physical, won't be selling until I can turn around and buy some real estate or maybe a business in exchange for some oz. Or until silver finally goes mainstream and everyone is fully on board. Certainly won't be trading it for fiat anytime soon, if ever. Physical silver>fiat, higher premiums are just a part of the game now. Like tmosely says, better grab a seat before the music stops and you're truly fucked.
Part time work is not a bad deal if you live with your Mom.
Does that mean they are not part of the pent up home buyer demand as seen on TeeVee???
funny you mention that since the trend in the last 20+ years has been living with peoples parents till they are damn near into thier 30's
Can't really blame people for doing it though.
First you send all the blue collar jobs overseas, forcing everyone to go to college for everything. Then you cry how expensive educated labor is, oblivious to the mountains of debt behind that education. A living wage is preposterous, how would you be able to buy that 12th yacht or 4th vacation home if you paid one? Housing supply is down and prices are up as a result, so the kids you won't hire/pay have to work longer to afford a down payment large enough to make the usurious loan for a damned shack remotely affordable. And now here we are, with educated people struggling to find work and living with their parents into their 30s. As Gomer Pyle would say, surprise surprise surprise.
Congradulations, you boomer assholes.
hey ..... i'm in household consolidation right now ! moving back with the ex-husband i loathe so much cause neither one of us can now make it on our own ! & the adult children who are 28, 32 ..... hell, they're back in the pit we call home now, too !
I remember a time when the norm was to take out a 15-year mortgage & have it paid off in 10 years.
that was back when a mortgage was legit and attached to the real property. The unique opp is that the mortgage of today, similar to the disconnect between ie. silver spot and physical....disconnected.
In the sense of the mortgage, it is not attached and the sheeple do not realize the debt is not valid.
if you file an action to remove the cloud of title BEFORE foreclosure, key participants will not show up, because they have nothing and no $$$ in it. Once in foreclosure, now players have some incentive.
Also look into changing the "testament trust" language, for it states ie. "That if you cannot make the payments, it is your WILL that the note holder take your house". Change it so that it is NOT YOUR WILL.
in the last depression, mortgages where eventually removed to insure payment of the property taxes at the very least.
I expect operators to increase the amount of part time hiring for a number of reasons.
keep pressing forward.
OT Portugal, the third eurozone country to ask for a financial bailout, should first sell its gold reserves, a German member of parliament suggested on Thursday.
http://www.thelocal.de/money/20110505-34835.html
with very high birth death adjustment this time around, this payrolls number was in line, and not that great: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks
The birth/death wasn't high this time around. The average April adjustment is +275k, so this was actually 100k short. And just because you don't understand the methodology behind the birth/death or the reasons it is done, doesn't make it less valid.
Here is the methodology for B/D model.
It adds 500k-800k to headline number, over the course of a year. BLS then removes that amount quietly during spring revisions.
Rinse, Lather, Repeat.
100% false. While the last two years subtracted some of the birth/death adjustments for the year (some, not all) in many other years, the revisions add even more jobs on top of them (ie the birth/death adjustments were too small). Keep in mind that the BLS has essentially been making birth/death adjustments forever, but they only recently (around 2001) began breaking them out for us to see.
Lucy is correct re: last 2-3 years. You are correct re: longer-term, but take a look at the benchmark revisions (vs. originally reported, first revision, and second revision). A disturbing trend.
over the last 2-3 yrs, that's pretty accurate
Police State 101: never allow the serfs to think they can make it on their own. Self-reliance is not acceptable.
If we've become our own immigrant workers will our culinary tastes expand?
Immigrants eat a lot of octopus. Hey I'm jus sayin.
and our leader are already cannibals
+1 Cannibals Indeed. What's for dinner? Golden Goose (aka the working class).
will our culinary tastes expand?
That would seem to depend on whether the number of items on the McDonald's Dollar Menu goes up or not.
Well, that spicy McChicken sandwich is already pretty exotic.
as long as you promise to put the emphasis on the last syllable of the establishment
The only way to deal with the ever immiserated lumpenproletariat is to recolonize Africa. People arn't going to like it and it sure as hell ain't PC, but it would do the trick. Excess liquidity? How about trying to nation-build and bring some people up out of poverty.
The problem is of course trying to 'sell' such a program to the world. Not to mention it would require a developmentalist logic which appears to have been usurped ideologically by neoliberalism…
Abraham Lincoln supported this idea.
people can't be "brought" out of poverty...look at is this way, chimps have pretty low standards of living. How much do you think you'd have to spend on them before they could behave in a manner you deem "civilized" and maintain the society you built for them?
Here is quote from 1850 about the UK:
"The tide of emigration is rolling on year after year, and we have no power had we the wish, to stop it. Men will fly from starvation to the uttermost ends of the earth; and from our villages and towns thousands after thousands find their way to the seaports, knowing and caring little where or how they go, provided only they are taken away from a country which refuses to support them in honest industry."
I think the same thing applies today. If China is going to keep building Ghostcities, the technology exists why not do it in a way to help build up failed states in the process, and off load some people at the same time. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E Of course the 'system is a ponzi' but at least it would make things more interesting.. It's just an idea.
You can 'deal with' the working poor by preventing the banker-gangsters who don't perform any meaningful labor from stealing so much from those who do.
Lots of ways to go about doing so - it requires only a modicum of courage.
And Africa has never freed itself from the banker-gangsters, anyway. Just look at the Congo, or Cote d'Ivoire, Libya, Zimbabwe, Sudan, etc. From Big Pharma to coltan miners to cocoa, Africa is still controlled by the banker-gangster hooligans.
( ).( )
We tried that in Haiti several times and it failed. People just become more dependent when things are handed to them
Great insight, and great reason to read ZH. The devil is in the details and that's the way the policy wonks want it.
Anecdotal but important: People in my crowd are starting to laugh at jobs. No, not the multiple piercing spoiled teenager, the mom of the teenager, who was working mostly to instill some work ethic in the kid, but he's treated better bagging groceries at food lion than she is as a retail manager.
Most beach bums have a check or two, not enough to feel rich, but enough to keep the ride legal, so actual work is a seasonal, sometimes thing. Still, it's been an eye opener to listen to "managers" complain about the rash of shit they put up with on a daily basis, and the lousy net they make after taxes and the price of gasoline. The sheeple are starting to make other arrangements, not including regular, reported to Uncle Sam wages. This is getting interesting.
that's my sense of things too. Think it's innevitable. Things go creative and underground for both survival and payback. People are waking up to the injustice and theft and feel justified in remaining outside of the scheme.
Ditto, lots of economic activity heading underground and off the radar. Has been that why for some time.
In my home state, there is no state income tax. It allows many to fly below the radar and be very "creative" in their income reporting. I'm not one of them, but they are out there, the kids working construction (i.e., home repair) 3 yrs out of high school, driving around in $45 K lifted trucks paid for with cash, custom M/C's, the whole business. The middle-aged working stiffs like me look and scratch our chins, wheels start to turn.
Taxes are too damn high on the middle class.
Taxes are too low on the derivatives merchants who pay no tax on their trillions in turnover. Tax them and lower taxes for working people.
TThat's a tidy little program, isn't it?
Trouble is, if you even hint at raising taxes on the richest, they start screaming that they'll just move their businesses offshore, if they haven't already. The screaming is enough to make it so the taxes are never raised.
I'll agree with raising taxes on the rich once we make everyone on welfare perform community service such as picking up trash, planting trees, removing grafitti, etc. It's too easy for them to demand more services while contributing nothing in return. Then cut spending back to 2000 budget levels adjusted for inflation (Clinton's last budget), then we repeal the Bush tax cuts. End the three imperialistic wars and put the troops on the border.
I'll agree with raising taxes on the rich once we make everyone on welfare perform community service such as picking up trash, planting trees, removing grafitti, etc. It's too easy for them to demand more services while contributing nothing in return. Then cut spending back to 2000 budget levels adjusted for inflation (Clinton's last budget), then we repeal the Bush tax cuts. End the three imperialistic wars and put the troops on the border.
Translation; charting America's conversion to a third world country.
The only way to deal with the ever immiserated lumpenproletariat is to recolonize Africa. People arn't going to like it and it sure as hell ain't PC, but it would do the trick. Excess liquidity? How about trying to nation-build and bring some people up out of poverty.
The problem is of course trying to 'sell' such a program to the world. Not to mention it would require a developmentalist logic which appears to have been usurped ideologically by neoliberalism…
AP: unemployment rate rose to 9 percent in part because some people resumed looking for work. WHAT?
So if the Obamabots want their dictator re-elected, they need to stop people from looking for work?
You got it... consumer confidence started rising and more of those (14 million) idle workers think things are getting better and start looking for a job. Its a catch - 22, the kool-aid chugging cheer leaders pump up confidence and the U3 number rises.
If Obama gets re-elected with U3 above 9% then the country will get exactly it deserves, 20 hours a week at McD's for min-wage.
I love to see the Obama-Bots get what they deserve. Fuckers. I've already seen a few get their Hope-N-Change in the form of a lay-off. I just smile.
When half of the workforce in a major US metropolitan city is functionally illiterate...wtf else are American workers good for but part-time jobs. Major systemic problems and it just keeps getting worse.
http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2011/05/04/report-nearly-half-of-detroiters-cant-read/
I watched a show on Aussie TV one night some months ago where they were asking general knowledge questions of people in the street, in the US.
The asked one 30ish woman how many sides a triangle had, she wasn't sure so she asked her friend - eventually she answered 'its 2 isn't it?'.
uh...you should be aware that for those spots, they ask a few hundred people questions and only include the dozen idiots in the final cut. The other few hundred get edited out. That makes it look like everyone is an idiot, when it was merely everyone they showed.
But, for reference across demographics lines, about 50% of Detroit is illiterate, and the chief of the school board there is too.
Detroit = Cleveland economy, Minneapolis weather, L.A. air pollution & traffic, Boston race relations, Baltimore crime, and Philadelphia governance
A sad thought crossed my mind. It really seems like the future TPTB have planned for America's youth is the world of Pimps and hos'. Everyone with a webcam and a connection seems to be in on the game anyways. Then of course there is Craigslist. Quite shocking.
And then, one just needs to take a walk near a Public school in pretty much any area, a ghetto (I've been to a few in my time there), general culture of pimpin and hoin (all the music, especially from black folks is like that, massive social engineering). And then of course all the pornography, gonzo, nearly but not just quite underage, child models.... on and on and on....
Sex, it's the ticket to a meal in what is coming it seems. Pretty sad.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/the-callousness-of-pornography/
Sex tours to the USA instead of Thailand. That the USA's future?
Yep Kina, something like that. With a dead dollar, or soon to be anyways, most asian's will be able to afford it too.
ORI
Who in the hell would want to though? Someone really gonna fly around the world for sex tourism in an obese country?
Mind you perhaps if being fit and sexy was the only way to eat then that might light a fire under peoples arses...
You could get a hot looking Russian girl for five bucks during their crises. Maybe we will have Chinese sex tourists coming to the USA! LOL
Yeah, just like a shot at the doctors office.
"your only going to feel a little prick."
During the early 1930's depression in Weimar Germany it was generally considered "a blessing" to have a prostitute in the immediate family.
We are not very far from that point. Not very far at all.
Sonia had the yellow ticket in Crime and Punishment too
Interesting link. I see similar things going on with fear/violence. repressed and encouraged. The constant juxtaposition of messages with their opposites. Smithfield Farms comes to mind. Like a backdoor into the mind of the masses. A river of rage and lust and madness to be channeled and diverted. Where?
Exactly theopco, to what end?
I think I know, but that is a thesis, not a mere post reply! :-)
ORI
The disconnect between real unemployment and the Govts statistic is astounding.
Well if you are going to lie better you do a big lie through your teeth.
http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-emp.gif?hl=ad&t=1304688295
The US economy is entering the quicksand again. But I think BB will struggle even harder as that helps you get out of quicksand...so go forth and print BB.
Corporations don't need people, but people need corporations. The governments went fascist and now are stabbing themselves repeatedly in the heart. This is a corporate takeover.
Flash Crash Anniversary:http://lhmarketwatch.blogspot.com/2011/05/flash-crash-anniversary.html
Thank you Tyler for Honest reporting. Have not sold 1 share of miners and yes it has been a trying week.
Bought more physical gold and silver yesterday.
'Land of the Free, Home of the Brave'...now nothing but just a sad pathetic country full of sheeple cowering in fear of fake phantom threats like a hairless Chihuahua and daring not question their ever LESS free condition and total overlord control by a maniacal lying govt full of psychopaths.
Land of the fee and home of the debt slave, at a town near you.
More like Land of the Stupid, Home of the Screwed
USA 2019 : nightmare scenario...
Half the population on the dole/backwardrian agrarian serfdom and one third, (young and faceless/reckless), on the job of selling themselves body and soul in NET/Real economy. It leaves the other 15% as honest corporate slaves to the remaining 1% who own all. Now the USA will be configured like China in 1919....wow, what a reversal in one century! A mad hatter's dream created by a run away printing press...
Happy Flash Crash, and buy silver bitc....an ounce here and ounce there.
244,000..lets see...
dishwashers-60,000
Wal Mart greeters,stockers and cashiers-30,000
Dollar General,Family Dollar,Dollar Tree,Ollie's Big Lots,Odd Lots Store stockers and clerks-70,000
waiters-25,000
waitresses-25,000
pizza delivery drivers and a pizza a pie a makers-34,000
total- 244,000
A nation of Baldricks..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?hl=en&v=lAHIcbTRDbI&gl=US
during the 1930 depression, there was an increase in demand for part time workers in the form of flex time hours. operators attempted to hoard part time workers placing them on stand by so they could all be available for part time shifts and fill-in's if another worker was unavail.
This is similiar to JIT management except with people. I would expect this pattern to become more pronouced in the months to come.
One of my friends manages a multi-plex movie theater in seattle. Over the past few years she's had to cut staffing so far that she recently had to start scheduling an on-call person for each shift. There's no pay for an on-call shift and yet the employees are happy to have the chance for one extra 5 hour shift a week. This is a minimum wage job that is filled with people who either graduated from college in the last 2 or 3 years, or who dropped out because they could no longer afford tuition.
When half of the workforce in a major US metropolitan city is functionally illiterate...wtf else are American workers good for but part-time jobs. Major systemic problems and it just keeps getting worse.
http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2011/05/04/report-nearly-half-of-detroiters-cant-read/
I am gobsmacked. In the leading global economy.......empire in decline and fast.
Did you bother to look at the demographics of Detroilet? You will see the SAME TRENDS in the same demographics everywhere.
For example, we have a demographic in our schools that is the majority demographic in the country and ranks #3 in the world in standardized testing all the while we hear about how low ranked the USA is and how our education system is failing. It's not failing, a couple of our demographics are failures. Their inability to obey laws drives our crime rate up (the detroit demographic ALONE commits 54% of violent crime), their inability to master basic math and reading drives our national achievement down.
It's really this simple; I shit you not. And no, just because you haven't heard of it doesn't mean it's not real. Nearly everything you thought you knew about these types of things is bullshit.
You are referring to the black population.
Look at the engineering schools in the US. >50% are asians from the US or asians from abroad. most of the "majority demographic" are majoring in psychology, liberal arts or education because math is too hard for them. most of the "majority demographic" drop out of the computer science classes after the first year. It might have been different ealier but this is what it is now.
You are, of course, correct trav.
Nobody can admit it because it's not polite. And who can blame them? Discussing these things makes for very depressing conversation.
Just one more way in which this once proud nation is going down the drain.
It's not going to get better. There are more and more blacks on the dole with each passing day.
I have to agree with you Trav. I grew up in the south and started grade school in 66 when there were just a few black kids in school. my parents and family always treated everyone the exact same so I never felt a bit of racism at all in my whole life..... until recently. It absolutely infuriates me to have all these black women come through and say they get housing and food stamps and healthcare and they are damn sure going to have a few more kids to keep the benefits coming. It is unreal. I have BECOME a racist person but it wasn't taught to me by anyone. I LEARNED IT...... I learned it the way it really is.
Irony: these illiterate will not be able to read the report.
live and lust for joy and then share it in as many ways as you can...feel the pulse deploy...you are then part of a living, loving chain. Giving is what brings sense of joy, even though lust is part of the initial imperial urge to receive and to thrust daringly, it is dust... when compared to when you give selflessly. Man is thus but living, aching paradox. Part time, hard time worker of misery but lord of giving.
That is exactly what I was thinking.
So, you get rid of one full time worker with Benefits and Health Care and hire two part time workers without Benefits and Health Care.
1 lost job could count for 2 jobs created.
Instead of using Jobs numbers they should use Tax Revenues received. That would be a more accurate view of the Economy. As Income Taxes paid on a part time job would be less than the Income Taxes paid on 1 full time job.
At this point in the Depression, my guess is that laid-off professional level people ($80K+ earners) have burned thru all savings and assets. Thus they are now forced into accepting McJobs and lowered expectations. It only gets worse from here as states start massive job cuts to balance budgets. Maybe the states will start printing their own paper since Bernask is hell bent on destroying the dollar.
Working hours have been dropping steadily thanks in part to higher productivity.
Putting aside cheap third country labour; cheap oil, electricity and automation in manufacturing should be responsible for high production throughput.
If you watch closely, now we are filled with gadgets, tv channels and toys that distract us more than ever. Products are disposable and "personalized" so you consume even more.
I might sound utopic, but there must be a benefit in not having everybody employed full time and working people have more free hours. If lighter, flexible work hours are the next trend, this would allow people enjoy more free time for study (music, culture, science, hobby), pursuit personal satisfaction and non-profit activities.
Money is a means of getting what you want, not the end.
Money as an exchange instrument is fine, but since we have increased productivity, there is no need for everybody to produce just to increase economic indicators. That's also why, I assume, many government jobs have increased dramatically. People should focus on what can be done in their communities to earn money as self-employed worker with specialized skills, and leisure away.
Money would revolve around the community easier that way without further financial complexity. This would be similar to a closed circuit, where money mainly flows internally. No need to accummulate it to last more than a lifetime.
When energy and oil get really expensive, we will turn back again into regional islands. For me it is insane to waste so much energy to transport everything thousands of miles and just to end at the landfill or sewer.
Maybe I'm wrong and humans will always find a cheap energy source, to maintain the status quo.
Yes. Clearly all those predictions made decades ago about "technology and automation leading to a vast increase in leisure time" have come true.
Close to 40% of the population now have all the leisure time in the world - whether they want it or not.
Yeah. My guess is the vast majority are worried about keeping a roof over their head and rice & beans in the pot. Rather than where they will spend all this wonderful free time that unemployment/ under-employment has brought them.
So there is no recovery, but there is plenty of bowing to business interests.
Feudalism, bitches!
What happens if FT-equivalent benefits(as they are now or better) are required on Part-time, closing the loophole?
Our democracy has been turned into a despot by first using fear of terrorism and now fear of unemployment to keep it's sheeple controlled. The messsage is clear: be happy you have any job even if your working harder for less pay because if you don't like it then we will reduce you to part-time.
and the executives will get gigantic bonuses.
Looks like the spike in part-time jobs accelerated around the time the NBER-tards decided the recession was over.
Sethstorm -- Employers will cut the part time jobs, too. Anytime you tell an employer "you must pay your employees x dollars" (whether pay or benefits) the employer has only the choice to cut employees. The minimum wage caused lots of good entry level jobs to evaporate.
Although I agree that there has been and is a tectonic shift afoot in the US labor market, I do not think the parttime vs. full time employment numbers confirm a transformation to part time work. The latest numbers show approx 8.6mm part time employed vs approx 112.5 mm full time. Using a simple ratio of part time over full time that gives us 7.65%. Looking at the data since 1980 the average ratio has been 5.18% with a high of 8.51% 9/30/2010 and a low of 2.77% 7/31/2000. So we are at the high end, but not even at the high of this ratio. Further if one charts the two data sets normailzed to 1980 it is clear that the low %'s from 1995 - 2007 were an aberration. (I would be happy to send you the data and the chart if you want it).