• Knave Dave
    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

Charting The Exponential Distribution Of Home Prices In The US By Market Area

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Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:09 | 598959 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

You are correct and the blog is also.  The shadow inventory is slowly coming onto the market and eventually it will just fall on the market and we will see housed fall drastically in price.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 11:31 | 599923 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

great link, and thanks. I read DrHB alot, his stuff is right on. Coming to allllll the special neighborhoods near you!! 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 18:47 | 598705 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Wow.  Thought Santa Barbara would score higher.  Nice access to the Channel Islands.  Well, same with Newport.

Excise taxes, bitchez!


Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:09 | 598957 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Is it a coincidence that Newport Beach is at the top and Bill Gross recently moved to Newport Beach? Maybe it was him that pushed them over the top?

BTW, I'm officially calling him "Sneak Peak" Bill Gross from now on since he's all but admitted to getting a sneak peak of FED data and opinions. 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 22:40 | 599071 Misstrial
Misstrial's picture

Bill Gross has lived in Newport Beach for some time; only recently he and his wife purchased a  home larger than the previous.

Don't forget that Donald Bren lives in Newport Beach (spec Newport Coast) along with some of the Irvines.


Wed, 09/22/2010 - 22:49 | 599073 Misstrial
Misstrial's picture


Not junked by me; nonetheless, the big money is in neighboring Montecito (93108/9).

Newport is not close to the Channel Islands. Maybe you're thinking of Catalina Island.


Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:09 | 598748 max2205
max2205's picture

Can you post a chart that I can see. It's blurry

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:18 | 598759 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Try opening the chart in a new tab or window to see a larger version than in the post.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:19 | 598762 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

or, click on the link to see the full list of 296 markets.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:51 | 598809 max2205
max2205's picture

Thx but I'll try it on my pc. Freaking iPhone

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:39 | 599598 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Yes, I am waiting for a phone that can do a holographic heads up display onto thin air.  Surfing ZH and other sites on the cell phone while out and about leaves something to be desired.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:40 | 598788 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

its BS...no hamptons made the cut?


please, with the most expensive real estate deals in the cuntry?  

keeping below the radar?



Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:20 | 598837 Mercury
Mercury's picture

You know, I've always wondered: Given that a place like Southampton A) doesn't have that big of a year-round population and B) has plenty hefty property taxes on all that fancy real estste - what the hell do they do with all that money?  I mean, after you build electric-everything public schools and give Range Rovers to the cops there still has to be enough money left over for a medium sized space program...

They probably gave it to Bernie Madoff.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:49 | 598802 Carl Marks
Carl Marks's picture

Wait until the reds seize the wealth and redistribute it to the 90% of people in the U.S. who are unfit for a modern society.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 22:24 | 599051 Seer
Seer's picture

You've been deemed unfit for a modern society.  Sorry, but you'll have to go.  It's for the good of humanity- to rid ourselves of self-righteous people, don't ya know?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 11:02 | 599835 Reductio ad Absurdum
Reductio ad Absurdum's picture

No, Seer, brainwashed people like you need to go. You're killing off the human race with your "I'm OK you're OK" bullshit.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:54 | 598813 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Money can be a blinding thing.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:15 | 598819 Mercury
Mercury's picture

The Exponential Distribution Of Home Prices?   I'm not so sure this is a particularly new phenomenon.  Although the spread is probably wider than ever.  Once cross country travel and ethnic/cultural segregation are no longer big issues, it's all about money...and rich people want to be near other rich people. On the other end of the scale - people who have the wherewithal to get the hell out of places like Detroit usually do.

So, yeah...location, location, location.

This, in a nutshell is why pushing home ownership on as many Americans as physically possible didn't have the desired wealth-building effects.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 11:07 | 599856 Reductio ad Absurdum
Reductio ad Absurdum's picture

The chart is NOT a distribution; it's merely a listing of different home prices from different regions of the country. To be a distribution it would have to be a histogram where the total number of houses for sale in each price range was accounted for.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:01 | 598828 deadparrot
deadparrot's picture

I shudder to think of the ramifications of abolishing Prop 13. I'd still love to see it happen.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:40 | 598860 Mercury
Mercury's picture

To punish people who have bought real estate with their money or because municipal governments aren't quite big enough yet?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 11:13 | 599874 Reductio ad Absurdum
Reductio ad Absurdum's picture

Seriously, what kind of an idiot is against Prop 13.? The whole point of Prop. 13 was to reduce the size of government by reducing the amount of money it gets -- starving the beast. Yet Californians wanted it both ways: big government and small taxes. They need to go back to the original goal of Prop. 13 and reduce the size of their government. Repealing Prop. 13 just leads down the primrose path towards government control of people's lives. Haven't you read "1984" or "Brave New World"? Or did the government ban those books from school?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:40 | 598902 Pillgrimm
Pillgrimm's picture

Homes sold in California pick up the sale price as the new tax basis. New buyers don't get a break. Prop 13 would protect a property that was inherited, but that's not what we are talking about. Lets face it, even if there was a windfall with a Prop 13 repeal, the revenue would be squandered and never used to pay off old debt. It would be used to lever new debt.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:04 | 598833 aheady
aheady's picture

Is that Norfolk, Virginia? Ack.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:29 | 598883 trav7777
trav7777's picture

property taxes are a relatively untapped source of gov't "income."

Seems inevitable that they will begin taxing anything they know about.  Is it their problem if you're underwater?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:40 | 598901 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

"Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it."

--  Ronald Reagan

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 22:28 | 599054 Seer
Seer's picture

Reagan and Co should have known, they were the next booster phase of this insanity...

And that dick-head Gingrich.  I mean, that guy was hauling in more pig feed than any other district except the viper den of DC.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 11:16 | 599881 Reductio ad Absurdum
Reductio ad Absurdum's picture

Seer, you are at the wrong website.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:48 | 598924 docj
docj's picture

Frankly, I wouldn't care if they taxed Wellesley (MA, I assume) into extinction.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:00 | 598940 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Must be from Needham;>}

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:08 | 598947 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Max, you need the new maxi-pad.


Ended under wrong reply person. dam it!

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:17 | 598965 Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

shit, it's blood in the str33tz dude,,,i'll buy detroit...as long as it's with someone else capital

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:48 | 599009 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

seems a piti

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:52 | 599017 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Location  Location  Location

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:56 | 599022 fearsomepirate
fearsomepirate's picture

The extinction of US auto manufacturing?  The Toyota plant 15 minutes from here says hi.  China and Japan make more than us, but we still made over 5 million cars last year.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 22:09 | 599035 MikeyKid
MikeyKid's picture

We should sell CA on the open market, throw in the boats as a bonus.


Wed, 09/22/2010 - 22:32 | 599060 Seer
Seer's picture

Hm... I wonder what affect that this would have on non-Californian's food prices?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 23:21 | 599127 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

...yes...most folks are clueless about CA ag business and how much the entire country depends upon it. In fact most of the population within CA is also clueless about the ag business here. For example, without CA you better get used to a non-tomato based ketchup or spaghetti sauce.

Maybe we should just slap an export tax on all the food leaving our state and headed East....we could balance our budget pronto.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:35 | 599474 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

They'd find a way to make better tomatos --out of corn.  They only reason they haven't done that yet is to keep more Kalifornians employed.  You don't feed the country, now go back to sleep.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:04 | 599662 Ludic Fallacy
Ludic Fallacy's picture

Maybe we should just slap an export tax on all the food leaving our state and headed East....we could balance our budget pronto.


Thankfully that'll never happen.  That's precisely what the inter-state commerce clause in the Constitution was intended for. 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 00:08 | 599093 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

You left Rye out but kept Staten Island on the curve.

Good call





Wed, 09/22/2010 - 23:17 | 599120 blindman
blindman's picture

@ mercury
"This, in a nutshell is why pushing home ownership on as many Americans as physically possible didn't have the desired wealth-building effects."


it worked as intended, not as advertised. create debt out of nothing, have

it supply the economy as other economies are being seeded with the financial

instruments constructed from that debt, and create fortunes doing it.

the wealth was created it just wasn't in the name of the debtor. but

it is highly unstable and politically dependent, hence the bailouts required

and the humiliation of it all.

etc. you could write a book..! or ten thousand.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 23:26 | 599132 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Just sort of eye balling that chart...it looks like a typical 80:20 scenario...20% ofthe cities account for 80% of the total value....


The really big hit is also coming now in reduced property taxes (especially on commercial property) and this is going to result in large shortfalls for local government's budgets...at least here in CA...maybe no the Hamptons or Nantucket.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:24 | 599458 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Short signals detected yesterday have now increased.


Thu, 09/23/2010 - 10:00 | 599654 Ludic Fallacy
Ludic Fallacy's picture

Doesn't anyone else find this chart disingenous?  If it was plotted with #markets on the y-axis, and average home prices on the x-axis, it would be a normal distribution with a positive skewness.  I dunno, this chart seems slightly dishonest when comparing to Taleb's extremistan - seems pretty Gausian to me...

Sat, 09/25/2010 - 23:03 | 605015 CL1
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