This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Charting Foreclosure Basics

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With recent revelations of the fraudclosure scandal, and a spike in interest toward all things REO, we decided to go back to basics and present some "appendices" over why this process of excess bank inventory clearance is so important and what its implications are, especially in a world in which foreclosing has suddenly become legally impossible.

First, courtesy of UBS, an outline of the Foreclosure process:

The Foreclosure Process

The foreclosure process may vary significantly across states and even across countries, but the following description is general enough that it should be applicable to most of the US.

Delinquency and foreclosure. After a homeowner with a mortgage loan has missed three monthly payments, he or she is considered to be “90 days delinquent,” and the servicer of the mortgage (the company to which the mortgage payments are made) can initiate foreclosure proceedings.

Auction. At some point, the borrower will be asked to vacate the home, and if necessary at some later point, the borrower will be compelled to vacate the home by local authorities. The home will then go up for auction.

REO. If the auction bids do not reach a high enough level to cover the outstanding balance of the loan, the lender can take ownership of the property. Once the lender owns the property (referred to as real-estate-owned or REO), it will typically remain vacant until the lender is able to sell it.

A quick back of the envelope analysis that shows how much incremental inventory foreclosure creates:

A flow chart of the foreclosure process:

The charts below show the geographic/spatial concentration of foreclosure filings, as well as concentration of GSE in selected states:

The states where foreclosure accounts for the bulk of transactions:

A snapshot of contagion effects of foreclosure on homes in the same naighborhood:

Those who wish to dig into the fascinating topic of contagion (in foreclosures, not in default European countries), can find more info below:

As those who have been following our RealtyTrac updates know, in the last quarter the discount between a regular home sale and that in foreclosure just hit an all time record. Here is how the pricing matrix looks like by state and nationally:

And possibly the scariest chart of all: the end buyer of all the REOs, the properties that end up having the lowest salvage value, for the most part end up being acquired by the nationalized GSEs. And since the GSEs are on the US shadow balance sheet, these are simply more "assets" that collateralize US treasurys, and therefore, the US currency.

Take all the data above, and layer on top the complete confusion courtesy of the self-imposed foreclosure moratorium, and the utter confusion in the market becomes apparent.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 12/07/2010 - 11:01 | 785346 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

*deleted as unimportant*

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 10:54 | 785367 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

 

Our grandchildren will still be dealing with this mess.

At some point, however, the degradation of property empty for 3 years or more (especially in sun belt states), would indicate that the next group to win big will be those who own wrecking balls and bulldozers.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 11:11 | 785431 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 11:36 | 785534 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Oh, that's excellent!

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 11:11 | 785432 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Some lady on the "Today" show or other morning yawn-fest, said that if you have two homes for sale in a three-block area, you're probably in a down market.

There are four homes for sale on my street, so does that mean I'm in a collapsed market?

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 11:35 | 785528 Ruth
Ruth's picture

I feel left out of the  Average Foreclosure Discount Chart....but we do shoot sunshine up your ass when we sell ya a foreclosure, NO MATTER HOW MANY BUYERS CLOSE ON THE SAME PROPERTY!

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:27 | 785812 azusgm
azusgm's picture

These defaulted loans in MBS need to be foreclosed on with documentation of the putbacks so that the chain of title may be preserved. For those who wish to see a federal approach, have the DOJ indict MERS and its officers on racketeering charges, close the doors, and seize all records. 

It is not the speed of clearance of the collateral inventory from defaulted mortgage loans that is desirable, it is the ORDERLY and timely clearance of the inventory. Otherwise, the sales merely bury the bodies. Rapid foreclosure creates supply but confidence is a driver of demand.

Assure me of a clear title so that I can buy and improve investment property, then I consider shopping.

 

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:30 | 785829 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

this really was a fine posting....basically the market is highly constipated - it can't clear and nor should it be allowed to do so until legal matters are resolved and justice properly served....

for all of this we have barney frank, chris dodd, and other assorted crooks to thanks...i am sure joe lieberman can be blamed somehow on this...

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:45 | 785896 DisparityFlux
DisparityFlux's picture

So, it's not a buyer's or seller's market and now we have to be concerned it's not a forecloser's market?

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 13:36 | 786102 DavidRicardo
DavidRicardo's picture

Everyone participating in real estate is a knowing participant in a Ponzi scheme.  How does this change your data?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!