Charting The Impact Of Prior Oil Crises, With A Particular Focus On The 350% Increase In Price Following The Yom Kippur War

Tyler Durden's picture

Morgan Stanley has compiled a convenient table looking at the impact of all prior oil crises, and how that reflected in peak oil production loss as well as the price of oil on a monthly, 3 month and 6 months basis. And while the biggest crises of modern days has so far been the Yom Kippur War with a total loss of 5 million mmb/d resulting in a 350% increase in the price of oil 6 months following, should the Libyan crisis escalate and impact even half of Saudi production (keep an eye on the March 11 organized protests), the current MENA crisis will promptly win the first prize for biggest oil surge. Should the past 6 month record be passed, Brent will likely be trading around $350 around July.

In terms of thresholds, oil burden has a few basis points to go before economic growth will be impacted. The oil burden which hit 3.4%, when Brent was $80.34, needs to surpass 4% for Oil Demand growth, and thus economic growth, to be impacted. Brent is now $115. We are beyond 4%.

Lastly, it wouldn't be a Morgan Stanley report if it didn't have a silver lining. Here is how MS tried to mask the impact of the oil price surge:

Sorry Morgan Stanley but that chart is also inversely correalted with the amount of cheap credit, and the 10 Year yield. All it shows is that the Great Moderation has resulted in GDP growth (which has now inverted on an incremental debt/GDP basis). As more and more countries commence to withdraw liquidity, it simply means that the double whammy of a liquidity contraction, coming as soon as June 30, will have that much more of a dire impact on the world economy as a result of the relentless grind up higher in oil.

 

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Sudden Debt's picture

HOLY SILVER BULLION! THAT DOESN'T LOOK GOOD!!

Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Here comes the 2PM silver price monkey hammer??

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Things ugly in Libya

Wti is soaring at day highes. Only thing now is a dump of the NASDAQ momos and we can have a hard down day.

Matto's picture

Poject Mayhem Bitchezz!!!


THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Not to worry, the RN will keep the oil flowing.......................

www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0jgZKV4N_A

 

depression's picture

"It's important to note that there is considerable spare oil production capacity globally, and we and other major economies possess substantial strategic reserves of oil. If necessary, those reserves could be mobilized to help mitigate the effect of a severe, sustained supply disruption." said US Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner in his testimony before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee in Washington on Thursday.

The Treasury secretary reassured lawmakers that underlying inflation remains low nationwide. And he said the U.S. has "considerable spare oil production capacity" it could consider tapping in the event of a "major" supply disruption.

Flakmeister's picture

 Running down a tank farm, (Saudis) or tapping the SPR ain't fucking production, jeezus!

Here is a little tid bit

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-aramco-said-sell-crude-oil-cargo-from-okinawa-383182.html

cougar_w's picture

And don't forget all those topped-off oil tankers floating off Singapore. Last year's production bought at recessionary prices.

The GS commodities desk has been waiting for this day a long, long time.

Flakmeister's picture

  Yeah, those fuckers will make some money, but to put it in perspective, 20 mm barrels is squat in terms of the market. It is about 6 hrs of world demand. At the height of the storage game, there was about 70 mm barrels involved or slightly less than one day of demand....Equivalently, if you consider the fraction of world demand that is "freely" traded, it becomes 12 hrs and 2 days... 

cougar_w's picture

Yeah, it's easy to forget the magnitude of consumption. The whole of ANWR at total draw-down is like -- what --- 6 months of supply for the US? There is a lot of money to be made, but it's not enough to buy a longer runway. They don't mention that much. They want the money and they don't care about anything else.

BobPaulson's picture

You hit the big issue there, IMHO. Most oil is now locked into sovereign deals where you feed yourself first. Some countries are conned by the "free market" doubletalk, and let all their resource wealth leave their borders in exchange for green rectangular bits of paper, but the fraction of people who are that stupid is declining. So of the just sub 90 million a day we use, I bet the amount in play is _very_ much less.

Sudden Debt's picture

And lets not forget the drop in demand once oil crossed 120$ in the past.

 

bruiserND's picture

Tyler,

This is deceptive and intellectualy dishonest.

America gets about 11% of its imported oil from the Mid East according to a July 2007 Congressional report done for Rep. Jim Saxon , NJ in response to a shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz.

Try talking your book with the truth. The world has become enough of a shit sandwich as it is without this crap. 

 

Ruffcut's picture

What is dishonest. SA is second largest exporter. It does not all end up here in US. It is a global concern. Most of our imports of crude come from canuckistan, at 27%.

IF prices go up, all producers rake in the cash, and they love it.

These crisises are party time. Cocaine, is a powerful drug. Crude is wallet fattener.

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Ouch!

They're saying rebel forces being pushed back. What happens if gaddiffy actually Stops them?

cougar_w's picture

What happens? We empty the Kearsarge on their asses, that's what happens. I bet you a bent nail we've already got an embedded team of "observers" with the rebels, ready to call in "humanitarian assistance" from the flight deck of the USS Enterprise on about 15 minutes notice.

TradingJoe's picture

Make that 6 min, standard alert response time for all combat pilots in the NAVY!

aerojet's picture

I hope they have special forces on the ground training the opposition right now.

BobPaulson's picture

No secret. MSM has even reported that Canada has their special forces in play already (I only mention that country because I'm from there and follow that media, I'm sure most NATO forces have commandos and airborne deployed already).

InconvenientCounterParty's picture

I haven't seen any material evidence that we are not supporting Qua-daffy on this. Until then, I consider it a real possibility.

Sudden Debt's picture

Give desperate people a cause and they are willing to die for it.

There aren't to many rebellions in history that didn't overthrow the regimes in the past.

 

John McCloy's picture

I would like to know which fools have any desire to go short oil going long into this weekend. Market should close at lows of day as even the mildest sign of irreversible escalation means Oil opens around 110 monday.

Caviar Emptor's picture

And we got lots of flash points to escalate! The circle of fire around Saudi Arabia gets a little hotter every day. Meanwhile Pakistan is a powder keg. And Iraq (which no one mentions) has a suicide bombing every few days. What people don't see yet is that oil production regions in general are destabilizing, not only 1 or 2 in isolation. This is why the West preferred dictators. 

silvertrain's picture

 Is there a stress test app for that?

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Serious question, if rebels are crushed and the USA already took sides and put a fleet offshore what then?

malikai's picture

Seconded. I believe we'd be calling the former state of Libya "New Texas".

Huck T's picture

Oceania has always been at peace with New Texas.

Sudden Debt's picture

Then the US will seize the oil fields and use the oil to rebuild the country and put democracy in place. That will take about a decade or so...

redpill's picture

Turd's crude options paying off in spades

TradingJoe's picture

Turd's strike is April 105!! Not just there yet but give it a little :))! I'm already in the money so...let's see what the weekend brings!

walküre's picture

Joe, ich hätte auf dich hören sollen!

franzpick's picture

CA gas prices were $3.95 a week ago, $4.05 3 days ago, and look to be $4.16 today, going up 3c per $1 rise in WTI. Oil at $113 will be $4.50/gal gas, approaching the price that will thin traffic back to the '08 level.

If the bond vigilantees, like the Libyans, are hiding from gov't. sniper fire, maybe some anticipatory fill-ups by several million gas vigilantes will give Ben-Hubris the next clue on how fast his ZIRP is unravelling, and if words like shortages, rationing, price-controls, and export-import controls aren't entering the federal strategy discussions, I wonder what page they are on?

SilverFiend's picture

I completed my "anticipatory fill-up" yesterday.  50 gallons at my disposal.  I will be able to weather any shortages or rationing.

InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Ah, the classic "petrol:brake pad" all -American butterfly trade.

all you need now is 22" sport tires.

cougar_w's picture

Demand destruction FTW.

Buy a bicycle. Listen up chumps, if I can build bikes you can at least get off your ass and buy one. Ride around a little in the park, take your dog for a run. Chicks love it and they'll think you're a stud. Heck, you ride enough and you might get those abs back.

Edit: Before anyone asks; no you cannot buy the bikes I build because you can't afford one. Besides that it wouldn't fit in your garage until you got rid of the F350.

Ben Fleeced's picture

Go Cougar_w.

I'm rolling on a '56 Raleigh Sport/Touring. It ain't the Abs being looked at.

Bob's picture

I take it the snow has melted in your neighborhood?  My diamondback is still a clothes--make that sweater--rack.

cougar_w's picture

California.

What is snow? We ride every day here, sunny days 3 days a week and winter is like maybe 3 weeks long.

It makes very little sense to drive around in Cali. I swear we must have the best riding conditions of anywhere in the world. People I know drive 2 miles to the store for milk and eggs, I ride 30 miles to work on an e-bike, love it the whole way, almost never get rained on. My kids ride bikes everywhere, 15 miles RT on a lot of things. Just get on and go, never worry about them ever.

franzpick's picture

I used to buy the kind of bikes you make, but times are getting tough and people are now lurking in vans in the parking lots outside our big box stores, with illegal boltcutters, snatching high-end bikes from racks not in camera view; lost my 10 year old 21 pounder last fall to them outside Wally*Mart, security truck watching from the other entrance, so replaced it with the least attractive chinese aluminum I could find, and won't be going there again. 

Have ridden 10 plus miles/day, doing all but the heavy shopping, 300 days/year, 3000 mi./yr. for 25 years: 75k miles, 3 times around the world without ever leaving town, and zero carbon footprint.  Love the smell of gas vapors as I shortcut thru the stations.

My family/friends have rolled car lease payments due into their new leases, are hopelessly $10k plus underwater and choking on $600/mo. payments, and have been and remain sure the recovery is 2 quarters away.

cougar_w's picture

You are one of the serious riders. We are few. I do about 12K miles a year because I commute 60 mls/day RT (or did until recently, office is moving closer to home).

Nobody steals my bike. It weights 120 pounds and is 11 feet long. Most distinctive bicycle on the planet. Fact.

It's 36V electric, tho. I couldn't do 60 miles without the assist. Pulls like a diesel truck, has a trailer, goes about 20 miles an hour for 2 hours. I'm building another this month with dual rotors and a wood frame in a steampunk design. Brass lamps, copper forks, antique gauges, dual drive chains. 9 chain rings just to reach the rear wheel. Gonna be the most beautiful two-wheeled machine on the planet. Fact.

If you want to and you have a welder, you can make monster bikes and move yo ass.

cxl9's picture

I wonder if statistically, the health benefits of riding a bike offset the risk of severe injury or death from being crushed beneath an automobile.

cougar_w's picture

Of course they do. What kind of question is that?

camaro68ss's picture

I say bring on higher prices in gas = less retarted people driving on the road!

cougar_w's picture

You know this is totally true. And the ones that can afford to drive will drive slower and less often.

Means more room for bikes.