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Charting Next Week's Action
At a loss for trade ideas (assuming of course that the masochistic streak is too strong to stay away from this travesty of a market for more than 24 hours)? Here is Goldman's John Noyce with some useful observations on key technical levels, correlations and pair trades to digest over the weekend. Trades covered include the EURUSD, the SPX, the Bund-UST spread, the 10 Year, China, and many other asset classes.
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Good bed time reading, Bitchez!
Nice discussion on HFT.
http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2010/08/market-data-firm-spot...
http://news.slashdot.org/story/10/08/04/1920224/Market-Data-Firm-Spots-t...
H/T dailyspeculations.com
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=5114
Just buy gold and be done with it. QE and bailouts to infinity.
The Chinese stress test for the financial system and major government owned companies will determine how far to junk the USD by the attendance or lack of at coming auctions.
CHina knows that America and Europe have many more crises to come and has planed to divest itself of the high risk US.
Step 1 Purchase allot of commodities (complete) see the topping of commodities and the shipping indexes.
Step 2 Negotiate supply contracts with commodity based countries (complete).
Step 3 Agreements to settle trade in Yuan or HK dollars (complete)
Step 4 Wait for the America to announce more stimulas or QE #2
Step 5 avoid treasury auctions and sell the USD down
Yes China will take a hit on the reserves but gain on economic war fare and global position. What’s a trillion dollars, Obama spends them like water?
Complete? China still has around $600-$700b in treasuries. I suspect that they are still very much on the hunt for resource acquisitions and supply contracts. They are also spreading it around in Africa and other commodity rich places, working on buying/building longer-term relations and supplanting US influence. Given the well-orchestrated building crescendo of drumbeats for QE2 stateside, China is probably going to step up resource acquisitions before the $ really tanks. Yes, they will take a hit if US finances and the $ keep proceeding on their current path (the "we can solve an unsustainable debt problem with more debt" mentality), but they are not stupid and will work hard to minimize that hit.
My thoughts are that the nuclear option would likely only be used if things deteriorated signficantly in China, and it would be more a case of "If you think things are bad here, comrades, just take a look at what a basket case the US is, so be thankful". Except that under those circumstances, I don't think that the US would remain chaotic more than a few months, and it might provide the impetus on the US end to make much needed changes. Guess I'm an optimist at heart.
Short the Dollar, Short the Yen, Pump the Euro, Buy the Dollar, Short the Juan, Pump your Sisters Ass, Who gives a fuck what these fuckers do any more. Their goal is to get the market to go green. Thats all. They will do what ever it takes to do it. Us shorts are nothing but little fleas to them. They can shake us off whenever we start to annoy them. But like fleas, We keep coming back for more punishment.
lol. Nicely put!
Jesse has a succinct view on the SPY manipulation and where we go>
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/08/sp-500-september-future...
The strangest thing today. At two-fifty, I'm watching my trading screen which had twenty stocks on it, when all of a sudden all offers on all twenty stocks (all on the S&P) were all hit at the same time. In fifteen years of watching trading screens, I've never seen that happen. I can now say that I've actually seen with my own eyes the team at work. Prior to that it had been eerily still for about two minutes when they all lit up at the same time.
You tell the story like you saw a UFO.
but this is normal procedure for things like basket trades etc., for example when options traders delta-hedge a call sell. on smaller indices this should happen quite frequently during the day. not sure about the big SPX, though.
This actually looks almost spot on for the EURUSD trade. You just KNOW GS is loading up on USD shorts though come QE 2.0 or whatever they are to call it this time. There is absolutely no way though that they'll be patronizing banks alone this time, it'll result in armed revolution (at least to a degree). I'm sure the squid has its tentacles deep in this one.
Might as well bet some quid on that squid.
For those wondering what context a rising wedge puts the market in, I point to these two references.
Investopedia - http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/rising_wedge.asp
Wikipedia - https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Wedge_pattern
Interesting find here - first mention I've seen that indicates being above the 200 day moving average is a false signal.
Continuation Wedge - http://www.trending123.com/patterns/rising_wedge.html
Disclosure: I'm currently holding some puts. I also realize that patterns like these don't always mean downside breakouts, but that is my bias at the moment.
Right now the boys are all waiting around for QE2, to see how that works out. The market didn't sell the economic (bad) new that hard Friday, but Monday always belongs to the bulls. the reflated government market rides higher on bearish signal reversals, so good luck with the rising wedge. I prefer orthodoxy, patterns which have no formal classification, but which repeat themselves.
I also see the DOW volume diverged at about 8500, which means we could revert to that level. We're also at that seasonal point where if the market can build a bridge across the fall danger period investors start pushing ahead aggressively. But the retailers have been playing down expectations, so those numbers will be easy to beat.
Chart: SPX
Keeping it simple.
http://www.screencast.com/t/OTcxOTEyOT
Include the shadows and it's still within the lower trend line of the wedge, not a backtest, but below the 100DMA. Need to close above 1131 for any meaningful upward bias (short term).
Thanks, Escort, for the input. I'm never sure whether to include shadows since some people do and others don't. Do you have a rule?
Edit: Are you posting TA comments anywhere these days or have you decided simply to enjoy the view of Mt. Rainier? I learned a lot from you, especially the Three Peaks and Domed House. Miss you!
agreed. the s&p needs to get above the june high and stay there for a few closes before pisani can claim another victory for the bulls. i'd suggest strong volume is a must, but that really hasn't been the case in any of these rallies lately.
My targets for SPX and EurUsd are 1250 and 1,45, respectively.
Hope that helps.
XLF stopped exactly where it was supposed to:
If only we had bank tellers like they have in Asia....
i'd be making deposits all the time! :-p
But she's a banker from New York? Debrahlee something.
SOX couldn't even take out Thursday's low....
"Hey look, the semis are taking off!!!"
Consumer discretionary showing relative strength.
"None of our husbands are working. But we are shopping anyway!!"
Flat out, this one is the Supermodel of the Year:
A "Nine Bagger"....
Wow! With Supermodel above, I doubt my newbie TA question will get a glance. In any case, looking at NQ over the past few days while playing with myself...I mean my crayons, I noticed a certain symmetry among the trendlines I was trying to draw; the Rising Wedge (including an "overthrow") seemed to be setting up a Roof topping pattern. Fooling around, I imagined a "Teepee Top." Is some TA thing going on here or am I just making myself blind?
http://www.screencast.com/t/ZDE2MjdlYz
Edit: Eureka: the V Top!
http://thepatternsite.com/vtopbot.html
DOW and SP500 weekly charts update :
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com