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Charting The Roundtrip In Q1 GDP Forecasts

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Remember when back on December 1, Goldman's Jan Hatzius issued its "revolutionary" bullish economy report which contained the following line "This outlook represents a fundamental shift in the thinking that has governed our forecast for at least the last five years" (and which was appropriately ridiculed by ZH :"This is unfortunate. Jan Hatzius used to have credibility"), starting a frenzy across Wall Street when one after another the econolemmings confirmed that bubble mania is alive and well, desperate to hike their own irrelevant GDP numbers as quickly as possible? After all Goldman had just given them the green light to do so. That the hike was based on something as transitory as a payroll tax fiscal stimulus and an ongoing (and allegedly soon ending) monetary stimulus in the form of QE2 was irrelevant: the Russell 2000 was up, meaning the economy was improving. Well, Jan redeemed himself realizing once again first, ahead of the crowd of idiots, that everything is about to go to hell, by downgrading Q1 GDP ahead of everyone else (naturally to be followed by the stampeding herd of lemmings - here's looking at you Joe LaVorgna and whoever the Barclays economist is, if they can even afford one - once again). But anyway since the first sentence was a question, if the answer is no, below we recreate the history of Q1 GDP forecasts by Wall Street's intellectual brigade. We will not point out the roundtrip, or put into question the relevance of the "economist" occupation on Wall Street. It is rather self-explanatory.

In the meantime, here is what Q2 GDP predictions look like. In good old "he who defects first" fashion, we predict that it will be Goldman once again to be the first desk to downgrade both Q2, H2, and FYE GDP, to be promptly followed by David Kostin cutting his S&P 2011 forecast from 1,500 to 1,300. After all the time to set the stage for QE3 is fast approaching and who better to load up on commodities in advance than the world' second largest hedge fund (the largest of course being the Federal Reserve).

And you thought only dot com projections had hockey sticks in them...

 


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Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:20 | Link to Comment Chasecran
Chasecran's picture

What is it, a broken clock is right twice a day?  Ya thats it.

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 17:50 | Link to Comment c0ncerned citizen
c0ncerned citizen's picture

They would be lucky if they could be correct twice a day!!

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:22 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Now overlay the Moody's forecast for shits and giggles

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:57 | Link to Comment A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

I'd like an overlay where they have an arrow pointing to the top saying, "this is where we sold to you..."

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:24 | Link to Comment Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Well, at least I can finally see the end game fast approaching. It is going to be an interesting summer....

 

 

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:27 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Summer doldrums good sir. Fall might be epic... But not before a new high SPYs

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 17:47 | Link to Comment smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

this just in...barry bonds guilty of obstruction of justice.....i guess jay-walking was to hard to prove...assholes...next thing you know they'll being throwing people in jail for making silver rounds...

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 17:51 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Offical Statement from DHS: Hitting baseballs into San Francisco Bay is a unique form of domestic terrorism

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:24 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

The change, the change is finally here! He really brought the change!

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:43 | Link to Comment FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Change is all you are going to be left with. Destroyers of wealth on an unprecedented scale.

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:30 | Link to Comment sundarb
sundarb's picture

Hockey stick graphs keep hammering down on one quote by Albert Bartlett over and over again:

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is the inability to understand the exponential function." 

Money Supply, Energy Consumption, Population growth...etc...etc...

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

Yes Men struck GE today, for those who track the stock:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20053523-503544.html

Edit: Andy and Michael were only advisors.  The caper was executed by US Uncut.  Funny shit, that. 

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:33 | Link to Comment citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

beginning to resemble that new head-and-shoulder/middle finger pattern (borrowed from goldengoose and no doubt others here at ZH)

,,!,,

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:37 | Link to Comment random shots
random shots's picture

collusion...but more likely clusterfuck...,bitchez!

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:39 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Is this the etch-a-sketch game on bloomberg?

What is this a drawing of? Looks kind of like a fist with a raised middle finger

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:40 | Link to Comment zeek
zeek's picture

...looks like my middle finger extended towards DC...

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:43 | Link to Comment tek77blu
tek77blu's picture

Good commentary on Uranium Junior stocks post Japan-crisis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-EkkhJi9VY

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 16:49 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

(naturally to be followed by the stampeding herd of lemmings - here's looking at you Joe LaVorgna and whoever the Barclays economist is, if they can even afford one - once again)

LMAO!!! Awesome... somebody has to take these idiots to task. Not even worth HALF of what they make. Nice work TD. lol

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 17:02 | Link to Comment Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Bu-bu-bu-but Ben says QE2 helps the Russell2000, I mean small business:

The Index of Small Business Optimism (PDF) gave up 2.6 points in March, falling to 91.9. The decline in the percent of owners expecting higher real sales and better business conditions in six months account for 76% of the decline in the Index. The index is consistent with recession-level readings. The decline comes after several consecutive months of a slow but steady growth. Hiring and future plans to hire built on February’s gain and remain the bright spot in an otherwise discouraging report.

 “It looks like everyone became more pessimistic in March,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Or, perhaps, this is a ‘new normal’ and we are unlikely to see the surges usually experienced at the start of a recovery. Times are different; government, with new taxes and more restrictions, is a larger drag on the small-business community. Uncertainty continues to cloud the future while the government is persistently tone-deaf to the needs of those who create jobs and wealth. Today’s recession-level reading is, all in all, a real disappointment.” 

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 17:06 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

GDP is little tweeting bird in tree. The maggots call him Terribullus Teradactylus Giagantus but in actuality it is sparrowus minimus crapulous extremus.

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 17:11 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

If GDP was roundtripped....

Why do we have stock charts that look like this?

 

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 17:16 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Do you even LOOK at the U.S. Dollar??? Much love to you bro, but for God's sake....

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 17:46 | Link to Comment Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

Even denominated in gold, BIDU has nearly doubled in the past year.

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 20:25 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

u know (s)he has "trader" in the handle? or non?

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 22:21 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Gents, my simple point is that when institutional money perceives an inflationary environment in the near future, and they see the dollar dropping to confirm said inflationary environment, they run to traditional asset classes that have historically proven to keep pace with inflation. Value must be preserved.

Yes... Meat... he does have "trader" in his handle.

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 17:22 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Inflation and deliberately engineered equity bubble.  But then you know that, so why ask?

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 17:42 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

Always been on the lookout for puts on that, maybe too early, but who knows.
And your new avatar does look better than the last one. Not very dirty, but ok looking.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 08:09 | Link to Comment Minyan Vince
Minyan Vince's picture

because more people are buying BIDU then are selling it

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

We no longer have an "economy".

Thanks to 30+ years of financialization we now have a hyper-leveraged Ponzi casino masquerading as an "economy".

And people shake their heads and can't understand why 95%+ of the population are "losers".

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 19:49 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Casinos have payout odds

Ponzi is all wall st.

Elites say 95% of population of losers is not high enough. They want 99.99%.

 

 

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 17:17 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

no one believes in substance, thus it is not necessary to provide correct or realistic forecasts....as the keynesians believe, inflation only happens when "expectations" are inflationistic....thus you have to rid your mind of inflation thoughts...once that happens, inflation goes away...therefore all economic analysis is of the pom-pom variety unless there is an evil person in power who needs to be descredited with a collapsing economy....economics is politics....and economists are frauds...

fuck you ben....

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 20:32 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Pump n dump, bitchez

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