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Charting Statistical Fraud At The BLS: 22 Out Of 23 Consecutive Upward Revisions In Initial Jobless Claims

Tyler Durden's picture


For all those who continue to doubt the statistically quetionable methods of our Labor Department, as well as for all others who mock those who doubt the veracity out of anything coming out of the BLS, the following chart should provide much needed closure. The top section of the chart below demonstrates weekly prior revisions in initial claims for all of 2010. Readers may be surprised to discover that beginning in April, of 2010, continuing through today, there have been 22 out of 23 consecutive upward prior weekly revisions! In other words, the BLS has a definitive mandate to underrepresent the "current" weekly data and to allow it to catch up with reality once it has become "prior", and thus no longer market moving, when in reality should the BLS present true data it would have likely missed estimates on more than half the occasions it has "beaten" and caused ridiculous market spikes like the one experienced earlier. Furthermore, combining all individual weekly data, demonstrates that the BLS has underrepresented initial claims by roughly 80,000 year to date. The chart pretty much leaves no room for doubt as to the BLS "trans-statistical" approach to quantifying data. As for the lower chart, it shows the same thing but with continuing claims, which have been revised upward pretty much consecutively for the entire year.

And there you have it - magical BLS statistics in action.

h/t John Lohman


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Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:05 | 617082 Racer
Racer's picture

The real people are resigned to breadlines and chucked on the rubbish as corpses, the revised headline "improvement" feed the banksters greed to stuff their faces on the entrails

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 22:55 | 617381 Billy Ray Val
Billy Ray Val's picture
  • And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed—if all records told the same tale—then the lie passed into history and became truth. 'Who controls the past' ran the Party slogan, 'controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.'"
    - George Orwell, 1984, Book 1, Chapter 3
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 23:12 | 617408 BobWatNorCal
BobWatNorCal's picture

Don't forget the "birth/death model" scam too.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:15 | 618078 michael.suede
michael.suede's picture

BLS should be revised to BS

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 01:17 | 617540 George Orwell
George Orwell's picture

Ahhh... my favorite book.  Thanks for the pump.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 03:02 | 617603 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Scariest damn horror story I've EVER read!  Unfortunately, it looks like TPTB are using it for a blueprint!

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 08:10 | 617811 Edward G. Rendell
Edward G. Rendell's picture

Everyone's so dramatic!  Anyhow, I was curious if there was a dataset on weekly revisions prior to 2010.

It makes sense to me that more complete data--needing more time to gather--will innocently demonstrate that the previous number was underestimated.  

I mean, I get, "even if you're right, the data is that way for Big Brother to lie to us--Tyler said so."  Still, I'm just curious. 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:04 | 617083 makeyoumiss
makeyoumiss's picture

Green Shoots.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 22:00 | 617292 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

that's right. u see goldman is creating lots of new jobs. they said so. in full page newspaper ads:

and in other goldman squid news, fabulous fab sez the sec fraud laws don't apply to him... the cdo transactions were done overseas. hehe.

the antifraud provisions of the federal securities laws can be applied if, and only if, the securities transaction at issue takes place in the United States

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 22:26 | 617325 maddy10
maddy10's picture

Goldman creating jobs???hahaha

see this:

After all the ruckus about Indians getting green cards in US in the name of outsourcing, they have finally kicked the onsite guys off the planet and are going for extreeeeme outsourcing.

CLOUD COMPUTING! must have heard abt this as the "new hip /hype/fad on silicon valley"

No more need for visas, green cards or anything!

All Fortune[only to their managers]1000 companies will kneel before their fortunes and embrace this no-employee-onsite-running-the- company-by video-conferencing-model for next 10 years

why bother hiring people when all the software can be used online

This is the consequence of Hyper-computing !

who said revolutionary ideas are always good

Clap Clap Clap! Bring on the accolades,awards for the new innovation!

"We believe by removing the unreliable human component in the execution of projects we have drastically improved productivity and this should improve margins and make companies more competetive"

clap clap clap; so 2 geeky guys sitting in bangalore will manage HR,finance,legal,regulatory,CR and everything else on supercomputers and hyper-broadband internet

All a company needs is a CEO with an ipad4G[or RIM playbook] and a part-time janitor with a Phd in something worthless.

Rest of you humans can fall of the face of the earth duly after applauding these visionaries.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 06:39 | 617701 bingaling
bingaling's picture

sometimes you have to look on the bright side - imagine how small you could make gov't with cloud computing

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 07:36 | 617777 maddy10
maddy10's picture

And the Unions get teleported to mars!

Imagine that too!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 23:38 | 617441 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

As Ian from Spinal Tap would say, it's not that the number of jobs are falling its just that the employment market is getting more selective

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:10 | 617091 Something Wicke...
Something Wicked This Way Comes's picture

And they wonder why we distrust and dislike government...duh.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:33 | 617146 mikla
mikla's picture


Fri, 10/01/2010 - 00:17 | 617497 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

I'm Homer Simpson and I approve this message.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 01:34 | 617552 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture


Now... put out that fire and get back to work Simpson...

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 04:34 | 617648 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Aren't you that guy from sector C?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:04 | 618030 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Taking the "L" out of "BLS"...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:13 | 617099 chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

Washington never told a lie: past

BLS never tells the truth: present

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:15 | 617101 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

I'm in a fun-having mood.  I'm going to send this link and a few others over to the BLS for an explanation.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 09:15 | 617929 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Let us know how that goes.  I am sure you will get an quick and thoughtful response.  Booooo Yaaaa!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:24 | 617118 Everyman
Everyman's picture

And the LamestreamMedia ...   Yawns.


Excellent there Conrad.  I sent in one as well.  The more they get the more embarrassed they get.  Keep the pressure on.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:54 | 617192 Rebel
Rebel's picture

"The more they get the more embarrassed they get."

Or . . . the more people they add to their "watch" list.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 22:10 | 617302 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

The more people on their 'watch' list, the harder we are to effectively watch

@ Conrad: I like the cut of your jib, sir. Sail on.

I believe it may be time to trigger that programmed response from your collective childhoods:

(Opens "Hand, Hand, Fingers, Thumb")

"...more monkeys come. Many more fingers, many more thumbs, many more monkeys drumming on drums. MILLIONS OF FINGERS, MILLIONS OF THUMBS, MILLIONS OF MONKEYS DRUMMING ON DRUMS..."

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 22:30 | 617339 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

I gave up on worrying about lists after the PATRIOT Act (they watch library records for fucks sake).  If they want to waste resources on me instead of monitoring the true threats to our country, fuck em.  If they keep everyone running scared then they win, and that's not acceptable.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 23:43 | 620278 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture


And thanks again for having a pair and putting them into action. More like you and we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place.

Best  Regards

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:26 | 617122 monmick
monmick's picture

Kinda reminds me of profitable trading days on every single day of the month!

It can happen...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:27 | 617126 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

 Tyler is posting m/f er  today..HELP, IM READING POSTS AND CANT KEEP UP!!


Great job !!!.. I appreciate you and your valuable information and the effort it takes to keep it up...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 21:37 | 617261 CU1981
CU1981's picture

+1 : Edit : revised to +2

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 21:41 | 617270 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

Algo'ed to 3

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 22:17 | 617317 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Naked shorted back down to +2

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 01:13 | 617537 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Sliced 'n diced 'n derivatived 'n levered up 'n CDS'd to 10^10^10

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 01:40 | 617555 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Flash crashed back to +2...

I'm with Waddell and Reed, you know...

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 02:30 | 617581 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

revised one week later to +80,000

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 06:10 | 617679 Grappa
Grappa's picture

And hyperinflated to infinity...

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 07:46 | 617790 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

+2 oz of Gold.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 06:16 | 617681 snowball777
snowball777's picture

So where does that leave us vis a vis the whole "still in Kansas" thing, Toto?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:28 | 617127 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Thus not only is the market not a forward looking indicator...but a lagging one.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:29 | 617134 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

where is MSM - we are being looted

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:33 | 617143 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Think that's good? Check out the BEA mulitple revisions AFTER the final for GDP....

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:36 | 617152 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

How about the annual revision?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:42 | 617164 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Take that BLS mocker mockers!

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 02:30 | 617582 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Hey don't mock the mocker mockers...uh, wait...nm

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:46 | 617173 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

I can't quite remember. What does bls stand for? Is it bureau of lying shits? Does anyone truly believe them at any time?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 01:45 | 617559 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"What does bls stand for?"


Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:50 | 617175 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Tyler, at this point the various governmental bureaucracies simply don't care if the fraud is completely transparent. All the zombies ever wanted was a quiet, non-stressful job where they had to perform minimal, if any, duties, and hang on until retirement.

They had hoped that the ponzi could change stripes (read: asset classes) to cover their litany of lies and resume the glory days, but alas, it is not forthcoming. At this point, you can almost hear the lamentations of the minions of municipal, state and federal employees, contractors and their (actually, our) wards:

Oh, what a world! What a world! Who would have thought a good little blog like you could destroy our beautiful wickedness! Ohhh! Look out! Look out! We're going! Ohhhh – Ohhhhhhhhhh!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 22:09 | 617303 CitizenPete
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 22:10 | 617308 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Don't give up hope. If the GOP gets a majority they will privatize SS & Medicare. Does that count as a new asset class?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 06:18 | 617682 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Nope, just more evaporated demand if/when those accounts are hollowed out by the TBTF (but just big enough to fuck the daylights out of the likes of you) and seniors have to forego shuffleboard in favor of cat food.


Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:49 | 617179 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

Fother Muckers.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:49 | 617180 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I again feel as though I've dropped through a wormhole and landed in some kind of alternate, backwards universe. Dumbstruck by the manipulation of all things economic.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:51 | 617184 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Kick back and have a beer. Then consider what it means. Seriously. This fucker is over.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 03:01 | 617586 wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

Seriously. This fucker is over.


Absolutely... And it will be far worse than anyone here can possibly imagine, atleast anyone who believes in a reset... If you live in a city, leave whilst you can or you will regret it... Buy a small acreage property with secure water supply or even a home in a small, close-knit rural community (preferably with mild winters)... You yanks can purchase such propertys today for peanuts/FRN's!!! If you cannot afford it, sell everything you can that you do not need and rent in such communitys, simplify now... If you can, pooling resources with like minded family or friends is a big bonus... This system of economic exchange has been a ponzi since the first human exchanged goods for profit, thats the unfortunate mathematical and thermodynamic reality of growth... Todays global economy is one huge energy bubble and its entropy is increasing with each hydrocarbon molecule combusted, no other combination of technology's can possibly be implemented in time with sufficient energy gains before a complete systemic collapse, ABSOLUTELY FUCKING IMPOSSIBLE... Many great minds have warned us of the inevitability of this very energy limit and many continue to warn us and to very little effect!!! It is sad that the vast majority of our fellow citizens have no idea of what dangerous paths lay ahead, many here do so use this opportunity to act now... All the gold in the world will not save you or your family in a high population density environment and neither will assault weopons... In the most optimistic  scenario, you will be forunate enough to survive upon government intervention so everyperson must ask themselves, is that a gamble worth taking??? Community is the only thing that can protect you, please trust me on this...

And yes, the tinfoil hat does get sweaty...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:51 | 617185 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Just look at the magic futures go, offers being pulled and up she goes like magic.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:51 | 617187 deadhead
deadhead's picture

Excellent article Tyler.


I think most people in the good ole' USA know the emperor has no clothes on......the lies just aren't sitting well with most folks.   We're in the calm before the storm and the grizzly simply has not gone away.   Look out for the roar and stay away from those big paws of his.


Fri, 10/01/2010 - 00:09 | 617487 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Get real! 38% would re-elect Obama today (cf. 53% who actually elected him). Most of the other 62% think that voting another truffle snuffler in would fix the problems. Dumb fucks.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 00:40 | 617514 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You have my vote.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:58 | 617199 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Already posted up top ..

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 21:00 | 617205 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Come on...he has no idea...he is the fall guy. He is cover for those leaving....he just doesn't know it.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 21:05 | 617212 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

Hey Tyler - I think you broke a record today bringing us news about disgusting government behavior


you are doing a great job - just wish every american was reading this stuff

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:38 | 618140 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

Beating yesterday?  Ah, I see - it's still early...

Edit: aha, my timezones are horsed up: you were posting Thursday.  Well, I predict yesterday's record will be revised downwards and today's will beat expectations.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 21:04 | 617213 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Todays selloff will be a distant memory by 5am est. The magic futures are off and running.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 04:02 | 617639 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Of course, it's the first of the month, you know. Wall St loves welfare for the rich. Now sing the national welfare carol.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 21:10 | 617221 winks
winks's picture

One has to ask-why does the BLS exist in the first place?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 21:25 | 617244 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

silly, to further the progressive propaganda, of course.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 03:10 | 617615 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Part of the "No Bureaucrat Left Behind" act.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 21:12 | 617227 SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

We are at the extreme.  Change you can believe in coming soon.  That's not a political slogan, its for real.  Too many people are completely blowing holes in the facade.  I don't know what, but it will be impressive to watch.  Got the popcorn and ready.



Thu, 09/30/2010 - 21:15 | 617231 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Problem is.... thats the Banks weapon.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 21:21 | 617238 SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

Maybe, but the banker didn't develop the model, didn't test it, didn't produce it, nor did they make the mechanism to deliver it.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 09:36 | 617978 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

This is how it will be delivered:

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 21:22 | 617237 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

I'm pretty much out of comments at this point!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 21:22 | 617239 Atomizer
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 22:10 | 617307 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Food shortages will be revised upwards but stomachs will still be empty.

The difference between the US and USSR is better surveillance tech.


Fri, 10/01/2010 - 03:12 | 617619 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Not to worry, the proles will simply be fed more lies!

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 09:40 | 617984 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

They taste so good when bought with a Food Stamp card.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 22:13 | 617312 Ags Nightmare
Ags Nightmare's picture

I wonder how much those reports are selling for in advance?  Fed Minutes are 75k...get a package deal for 200k.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 22:50 | 617369 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

To paraphrase Stalin:

The people who are the statistics are nothing. The people who create the statistics decide everything.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 22:55 | 617378 mee-mee-mee
mee-mee-mee's picture

The ministry of Plenty is starting to ramp up, eventually (if not already) all data will be invented to suit the in charge.

Orwell was a smart man....

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 00:43 | 617517 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The Ministry hands out statistics which are "nonsense". When Winston is adjusting some Ministry of Plenty's figures, he explains this:

But actually, he thought as he readjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connection with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connection that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version. A great deal of time you were expected to make them up out of your head.
Fri, 10/01/2010 - 02:37 | 617585 merehuman
merehuman's picture

but how are they gonna cover the smell? The Empire is burning. Good time wienie roast

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 23:22 | 617421 George Costanza
George Costanza's picture

Liars Liars Liars

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 23:59 | 617472 truont
truont's picture

22 Out Of 23 Consecutive Upward Revisions In Initial Jobless Claims.

I sense a pattern here...

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 03:15 | 617623 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Good Dog!  It's filled with rats!  (2010 - a Dyslexic Space Odyssey)

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 04:03 | 617642 Voluntary Exchange
Voluntary Exchange's picture

One weird looking bell curve! Lets see, 22 out of 23 flips coming up heads, what are the odds of that?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 00:02 | 617473 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

So how is Ecuador doing?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 00:48 | 617521 pre
pre's picture

Ah, there's the stat we need to see reported. 


Make sure that this gets to all the major media outlets so they can put it out there and prove how "balanced" and "truthful" their reporting is. 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 01:04 | 617531 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I've haven't trusted Fed or government stats for a long time, but I appreciate the heads up on more deceptions. Everybody already knows to go to shadowstats for real data. BLS is more of same BS.

The Fed and Gov no longer provide anything useful except the lengths to which they will deceive. Inflation, unemployment, GDP all grossly skewed and misleading. This is another one. 22 of 23 revisions go their way?


Fri, 10/01/2010 - 01:28 | 617548 defender
defender's picture

While the trend is a little disturbing, I can't say that the amount is all that much to worry about.  With 80,000 in 22 weeks, the average is somewhere below 4000.  This is close to 1% of the reported value, and to me is little more than noise in the data.

Of course if they actually counted everyone the same way that they did in the depression, even Moodys (sp?) would downgrade the US.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 02:36 | 617584 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

No, not noise, because it is biased in one direction.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:39 | 618153 pre
pre's picture

I can see how +-1% can be an acceptable margin.  But what this chart shows is that when you only trend one direction, you are not being truthful.  I'm not a statistician, but if I saw the need to make continual adjustments in one direction, I would change the method for calculating the result.


Over time the result should come close to zero cumulative adjustments.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 01:48 | 617560 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

the economic data points are just following the rule of law..

Intelligence Czar can waive SEC rules:

given the alternative (shit hits the fan, market gets killed) - the 'tweaking' of data is done in the name of National Security..

its not a shocker.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 06:23 | 617647 Voluntary Exchange
Voluntary Exchange's picture

What kind of  "nation" it is that  can only be "secure" through lies? Would you want to live there? Would you let that "nation" educate your children? Would you give it your wealth?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 11:43 | 618356 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

It's just organized crime in cheap suits.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 02:27 | 617578 fresbee
fresbee's picture

I have referred to this deep relationship between China and EU as the cornerstone of recovery in EU and the stability which we see in China despite constant and vociferous protest from US. Even with a declining economy in the US, both EU and China continue to surge. The EU-China relationship will increasingly demolish the dollar and US living standards as China will respond harshly to US hostility in trade and may even boycott the US bond auctions sooner than analysts think.


Finally the news finds itself in main stream media 6 months after China bought EUROs to stabilise it. Just shows how US centric media is behaving.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 07:01 | 617725 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

You need magic numbers to create a magic recovery. Come on folks, get with the stick.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 08:33 | 617852 trav7777
trav7777's picture

it's a few thousand a week..giant nothingburger.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 08:46 | 617865 lbrecken
lbrecken's picture

this is great damn work if i say so myself.....keep it up.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 10:07 | 618043 omi
omi's picture

I couldn't disagree more. This is behaving entirely as expected.


Think about it, the number of claims is increasing. There are more and more people filing claims, yet close to fixed amount of people processing those claims. It's not realistic to assume that under this scenario you can get everyone processed in time.


Constant upward revisions is exactly an indication that there's a huge processing backlog as opposed to a 'mandate' to lower the numbers, and to raise them in the next release. That theory could have something to it if it was done 2 or 3 times, after that any potency would be lost.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 12:39 | 618539 Sausagemaker
Sausagemaker's picture

What happened to #23?

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Canny's picture

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