Charting Statistical Fraud At The BLS: 22 Out Of 23 Consecutive Upward Revisions In Initial Jobless Claims

Tyler Durden's picture

For all those who continue to doubt the statistically quetionable methods of our Labor Department, as well as for all others who mock those who doubt the veracity out of anything coming out of the BLS, the following chart should provide much needed closure. The top section of the chart below demonstrates weekly prior revisions in initial claims for all of 2010. Readers may be surprised to discover that beginning in April, of 2010, continuing through today, there have been 22 out of 23 consecutive upward prior weekly revisions! In other words, the BLS has a definitive mandate to underrepresent the "current" weekly data and to allow it to catch up with reality once it has become "prior", and thus no longer market moving, when in reality should the BLS present true data it would have likely missed estimates on more than half the occasions it has "beaten" and caused ridiculous market spikes like the one experienced earlier. Furthermore, combining all individual weekly data, demonstrates that the BLS has underrepresented initial claims by roughly 80,000 year to date. The chart pretty much leaves no room for doubt as to the BLS "trans-statistical" approach to quantifying data. As for the lower chart, it shows the same thing but with continuing claims, which have been revised upward pretty much consecutively for the entire year.

And there you have it - magical BLS statistics in action.

h/t John Lohman

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Racer's picture

The real people are resigned to breadlines and chucked on the rubbish as corpses, the revised headline "improvement" feed the banksters greed to stuff their faces on the entrails

Billy Ray Val's picture
  • And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed—if all records told the same tale—then the lie passed into history and became truth. 'Who controls the past' ran the Party slogan, 'controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.'"
    - George Orwell, 1984, Book 1, Chapter 3
BobWatNorCal's picture

Don't forget the "birth/death model" scam too.

George Orwell's picture

Ahhh... my favorite book.  Thanks for the pump.

StychoKiller's picture

Scariest damn horror story I've EVER read!  Unfortunately, it looks like TPTB are using it for a blueprint!

Edward G. Rendell's picture

Everyone's so dramatic!  Anyhow, I was curious if there was a dataset on weekly revisions prior to 2010.

It makes sense to me that more complete data--needing more time to gather--will innocently demonstrate that the previous number was underestimated.  

I mean, I get, "even if you're right, the data is that way for Big Brother to lie to us--Tyler said so."  Still, I'm just curious. 

Careless Whisper's picture

that's right. u see goldman is creating lots of new jobs. they said so. in full page newspaper ads:

http://www.brandchannel.com/home/post/2010/09/30/Goldman-Sachs-Advertisi...

and in other goldman squid news, fabulous fab sez the sec fraud laws don't apply to him... the cdo transactions were done overseas. hehe.

the antifraud provisions of the federal securities laws can be applied if, and only if, the securities transaction at issue takes place in the United States

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100930/bs_nm/us_goldman_tourre

maddy10's picture

Goldman creating jobs???hahaha

see this:

http://business.rediff.com/report/2010/aug/31/infy-plans-extreme-offshore-model.htm

After all the ruckus about Indians getting green cards in US in the name of outsourcing, they have finally kicked the onsite guys off the planet and are going for extreeeeme outsourcing.

CLOUD COMPUTING! must have heard abt this as the "new hip /hype/fad on silicon valley"

No more need for visas, green cards or anything!

All Fortune[only to their managers]1000 companies will kneel before their fortunes and embrace this no-employee-onsite-running-the- company-by video-conferencing-model for next 10 years

why bother hiring people when all the software can be used online

This is the consequence of Hyper-computing !

who said revolutionary ideas are always good

Clap Clap Clap! Bring on the accolades,awards for the new innovation!

"We believe by removing the unreliable human component in the execution of projects we have drastically improved productivity and this should improve margins and make companies more competetive"

clap clap clap; so 2 geeky guys sitting in bangalore will manage HR,finance,legal,regulatory,CR and everything else on supercomputers and hyper-broadband internet

All a company needs is a CEO with an ipad4G[or RIM playbook] and a part-time janitor with a Phd in something worthless.

Rest of you humans can fall of the face of the earth duly after applauding these visionaries.

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2010/04/15/can-infosys-keep-workers-with-hefty-raises/tab/comments/?sort_order=desc

bingaling's picture

sometimes you have to look on the bright side - imagine how small you could make gov't with cloud computing

maddy10's picture

And the Unions get teleported to mars!

Imagine that too!

DaveyJones's picture

As Ian from Spinal Tap would say, it's not that the number of jobs are falling its just that the employment market is getting more selective

Something Wicked This Way Comes's picture

And they wonder why we distrust and dislike government...duh.

homersimpson's picture

I'm Homer Simpson and I approve this message.

Problem Is's picture

+1111

Now... put out that fire and get back to work Simpson...

Sudden Debt's picture

Aren't you that guy from sector C?

chinaboy's picture

Washington never told a lie: past

BLS never tells the truth: present

FEDbuster's picture

Let us know how that goes.  I am sure you will get an quick and thoughtful response.  Booooo Yaaaa!

Everyman's picture

And the LamestreamMedia ...   Yawns.

 

Excellent there Conrad.  I sent in one as well.  The more they get the more embarrassed they get.  Keep the pressure on.

Rebel's picture

"The more they get the more embarrassed they get."

Or . . . the more people they add to their "watch" list.

GoinFawr's picture

The more people on their 'watch' list, the harder we are to effectively watch

@ Conrad: I like the cut of your jib, sir. Sail on.

I believe it may be time to trigger that programmed response from your collective childhoods:

(Opens "Hand, Hand, Fingers, Thumb")

"...more monkeys come. Many more fingers, many more thumbs, many more monkeys drumming on drums. MILLIONS OF FINGERS, MILLIONS OF THUMBS, MILLIONS OF MONKEYS DRUMMING ON DRUMS..."

Conrad Murray's picture

I gave up on worrying about lists after the PATRIOT Act (they watch library records for fucks sake).  If they want to waste resources on me instead of monitoring the true threats to our country, fuck em.  If they keep everyone running scared then they win, and that's not acceptable.

GoinFawr's picture

Agreud.

And thanks again for having a pair and putting them into action. More like you and we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place.

Best  Regards

monmick's picture

Kinda reminds me of profitable trading days on every single day of the month!

It can happen...

silvertrain's picture

 Tyler is posting m/f er  today..HELP, IM READING POSTS AND CANT KEEP UP!!

 

Great job !!!.. I appreciate you and your valuable information and the effort it takes to keep it up...

CU1981's picture

+1 : Edit : revised to +2

GoinFawr's picture

Naked shorted back down to +2

LowProfile's picture

Sliced 'n diced 'n derivatived 'n levered up 'n CDS'd to 10^10^10

Problem Is's picture

Flash crashed back to +2...

I'm with Waddell and Reed, you know...

faustian bargain's picture

revised one week later to +80,000

snowball777's picture

So where does that leave us vis a vis the whole "still in Kansas" thing, Toto?

papaswamp's picture

Thus not only is the market not a forward looking indicator...but a lagging one.

NOTW777's picture

where is MSM - we are being looted

johngaltfla's picture

Think that's good? Check out the BEA mulitple revisions AFTER the final for GDP....

hamurobby's picture

How about the annual revision?

bugs_'s picture

Take that BLS mocker mockers!

faustian bargain's picture

Hey don't mock the mocker mockers...uh, wait...nm

jtmo3's picture

I can't quite remember. What does bls stand for? Is it bureau of lying shits? Does anyone truly believe them at any time?

Problem Is's picture

"What does bls stand for?"

PRAVDA.

B9K9's picture

Tyler, at this point the various governmental bureaucracies simply don't care if the fraud is completely transparent. All the zombies ever wanted was a quiet, non-stressful job where they had to perform minimal, if any, duties, and hang on until retirement.

They had hoped that the ponzi could change stripes (read: asset classes) to cover their litany of lies and resume the glory days, but alas, it is not forthcoming. At this point, you can almost hear the lamentations of the minions of municipal, state and federal employees, contractors and their (actually, our) wards:

Oh, what a world! What a world! Who would have thought a good little blog like you could destroy our beautiful wickedness! Ohhh! Look out! Look out! We're going! Ohhhh – Ohhhhhhhhhh!

InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Don't give up hope. If the GOP gets a majority they will privatize SS & Medicare. Does that count as a new asset class?

snowball777's picture

Nope, just more evaporated demand if/when those accounts are hollowed out by the TBTF (but just big enough to fuck the daylights out of the likes of you) and seniors have to forego shuffleboard in favor of cat food.