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Charting Three Decades Of The Exponential December BLS Seasonal Adjustment
This is the last chart we will dedicate to today's B(L)S non-farm payroll data. It shows nothing less than than just how much of a factor the "seasonal adjustment" has become in every December data series, and is the definitive evidence of why only the most gullible but any credibility in the BLS seasonal adjustment mechanics. Unfortunately far from indicating a one time seasonal adjustment, it is no yet another secular trend policy tool, whose goal is to offset the actual drop in jobs. Indicatively while the number is now well over 2x greater than it was in 2000, the US population has hardly tripled over the past decade, requiring such a dramatic increase in fudge factors.
h/t John Poehling
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This kind of analysis is what makes ZeroHedge distinctively awesome!
See everything goes up! Permabulls bitchez!
Man, I wish I had bought the dip back in '86.
Stagflation bitchez!
Wow the season is getting better or worse almost every year
They are counting abortions since they became legal. Alos, illegal aliens
So you're saying the BLS are a bunch of "fudge" packers?
Oh, I love fudge, I prefer mine without nuts.
Amazing article
You've seen the new BLS logo right? The incorporated arrow sure as hell isn't going down!
I spy with my little eye something beginning with T...
Trend.
DavidC
The Ben Bernank is not a good truth-teller. Nice work, Hedge.
Lies lies and more lies..from our Imperialistic Fascismistic Government..one thing for sure..all Ponzi Schemes end the same......KAKAKAKAKOLLAPSE....
A picture is worth a thousand words -- I mean JOBS!
Barclay's is busy creating an index so we can trade this!
off topic: noticed toilet paper is not as wide as used to be, but now colored pink! talk about a bum wrap!
Scott single ply 1000 sheets per roll was 4.5" and now 4.1". But it says "Now Stronger". See, I can offer pertinent information as well.
The bums!, they have been lying to me!..
CNBS had some lady talking about how unemployment remains high and the stock market is ahead of itself, and they cut her off mid-sentence, the screen went black, and some pre-recorded bullish crap appeared on the screen after a few seconds. I guess she won't be back.
Apologies to our viewership, whomever set up that interview has been sacked. Now, onto our "hot stocks" discussion roundtable...
Yeah, my relatives never get a break in TV Land.
I'm thinking of starting the "Bear Network" as a haven for Truth, Justice and the American Way
Thanks for adding this up. I tried to make sense of the seasonal adjustment methodology by analyzing the percent of jobs adjusted out. I thought that any given week the percentage should be constant year over year. The amount of lost jobs disappeared varied from roughly 20% to as much as 50% with no discernible correlation other than the demands of any given propaganda cycle.
This is for any B(L)S folks who may be tuned in.
It's a roller coaster game. Build your own:
http://pbskids.org/fetch/games/coaster/index.html
BLS: Just remove the "L" and you've got it.
Looks awfully lot like the intial claims revision-for-worse chart. Goebbels would blush if he was still around.
Looks like the month of December is a "happy" month that keeps getting happier. Legalize everything and let's see how happy we can really make it.
What the heck. The post has been up over two hours and only one junk. Did the trolls get a three day week-end?
I don't know ... it seems that the only 'real' new jobs in the economy are those that Santa provides at Christmastime
US Gov is *averaging* the labor data. To make it year-to-year-trend-comparison-compatible, they (US Gov) *average* it.
How do they do it? By Moving Average? No.
They do it by Hodrick-Prescot filter:
http://www.answers.com/topic/hodrick-prescott-filter