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Charting Today's Second Worst Ever Initial Claims Miss To Expectations
Today's horrendous Initial Claims number was so bad that not even CNBC tried to spin it. In fact, as John Lohman points out, it was the second biggest miss to consensus in history! Of course, seeing how this is consensus and the BLS does not reveal any unknown information, we wonder just how difficult is it to factor in any special factors in determining project numbers, and if the answer is "very" then why do we need economists in the first place (that's rhetorical). And while Liesman is in Europe on some assignment, here is Goldman explaining why the historic miss was based entirely on special factors.
Charting historical misses to consensus.
And heeeeeere's Goldman:
MAIN POINTS:
1. Initial jobless claims rose to 474k in the last week of April, from 431k in the previous week. The Department of Labor (DOL) cited three main factors behind the increase. First, plant shutdowns in the auto sector caused temporary layoffs. Second, Oregon reformatted its extended benefits program which "also pulled in some new claimants" (according to Bloomberg). Third, initial claims in New York rose due to seasonal adjustment problems. According to the DOL, the change in Oregon accounted for only 1,000 or so of the increase, and the impact of auto shutdowns was "very small". The major factor behind the increase was "administrative", reflecting seasonal claims in New York that were all filed in a single week. This accounted for about 25,000 of the increase last week, according to the DOL.
2. Even with these distortions accounted for, the result was still poor, and suggests some slowing of employment growth. This is more likely to have implications for the May employment report than for tomorrow's report, which is based on a survey conducted in the week of April 10-16, well before the numbers reported today.
3. Nonfarm productivity grew at a 1.6% annual rate in Q1, better than we or the consensus expected. Nonfarm output significantly outpaced economy-wide GDP growth (3.1% versus 1.8%) while employee hours grew at a similar rate to the past two quarters (1.4%). Unit labor costs were up slightly more than expected, and 1.2% on a year-over-year basis, although in historical terms these remain extremely muted.
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Damn....missed again.
Maxwell Smart: "Missed it by [ that ] much."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPwrodxghrw
Is that guy talking about the size of Bernanke's wang?
Is that guy talking about the size of Bernanke's.....
Well....it does explain why the screw job doesn't seem to actually hurt.....that bad.
That's more of a peering-though-a-magnifying-glass gesture.
He'll never touch bottom, but he'll be able to bang the hell out of the sides.
++
"A miss ? Bah ! 'Twas naught but anomalies. 'Tis but a scratch."
http://www.linustechtips.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/monty-python-bla...
Some people just don't know when to give up.
Beat me to it. Brilliant show. Look at the creators. The more I think about the ineptitude of our government the more I think about the show. Caught a rare interview with Barbara Feldman when Don Adams died, nice. Guess there was a big hold up and you could not get the old episodes on DVD. Luckily they're available now. Guess Chaos won afterall......
pre-waterboard humor
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Hd2e_tRBlY&feature=related
I always loved the cone of silence, including all the various derivations such as the mobile or underwater ones. They could never hear each other, but everyone else could always hear them. :>)
everyone would hear them because they would end up bending out underneath and start yelling at each other :)
http://www.wouldyoubelieve.com/
The parallels between CONTROL and Coneland.....er......Homeland Security are too numerous to list other than incompetence.
There is no comedy such as this anymore, IMO. A rotary phone in the heel of a Florsheim: classic men's accessory. ( Do they sell these at Brookstone ? ) As an aside, Don Adams' personal automobile was, for many years, the red '65 Sunbeam Tiger he drove in the credits for the first several seasons.
http://home.earthlink.net/~bennybabe/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictu...
great pic
+5... Hilarious CD!!
It's Timmay Jeethner talking to a pre-beard Bernank about to load the helicopter...
Mary Shapiro is going to make a double-butt-ugly Agent 99...
I thought it was Karma calling when I found the photo of Maxwell Smart showing us how small a miss it was along with the Chief of CONTROL holding bags of money. Priceless.
This is why they "killed" bin ladin.
Too bad the "mission accomplished - part deux" was as effective as a CME silver margin hike.
Start hiring more spin specialists.
Funny you should mention that.
Seems ICE wants to know why Capital flight is occurring.
https://www.fbo.gov/?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=0f3bf3ac7810bc35d5aa71ec...
Steve is visiting England, where he can learn that the English translation of his surname is, "a man that lies." One can't hide from one's heritage.
Excellent observation. Is his middle name "Wurm?"
Isnt it a Jewish name?
Except that they are spinning it:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-05/jobless-claims-in-u-s-unexpecte...
The title of the article you link is
Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Jump Due to AnomaliesBy "Anomalies" they mean people who can't find jobs.
lol
Notice how the drums are starting to beat inside the FED for QE3?
Stimulus Necessary
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren yesterday said record stimulus is necessary to spur the “anemic” economy and that raising interest rates to combat increasing food and fuel prices would impede growth.
Yeah right. Like QE 1&2 were sooo good at generating jobs. QE3 will complete the annihilation the seniors living on fixed income and they spill into the labor market to push the unemployment rate to 50%. Dammit, freakin blood pressure. I need a nap.
"The four-week moving average for jobless claims, a less- volatile measure, rose to 431,250 from 409,000."
Well I'm glad thats sorted yah fuckers
Ha ha ha.
Bloomberg: The "Spring Break" effect. Oh for chrise sakes, now they are just making sh1+ up.
Not to worry these are just more of the millions of Fat , Lazy Americans abusing tax payers. Jobs that only illegal minorities really want. Move along.
I'm beyond fed-up at this point with hearing everyone blame bad news on problems with seasonal adjustment!! My 3 year old daughter understands that you don't change the rules in the middle of the game...you turds at GS liked seasonal adjustments just fine when it gave you good numbers (ones that match your laughable GDP estimates), so no, I'm sorry...you're stuck with it.
...you turds at GS
Wow....does the promotion come with a raise?
+10. LOL. Oh man, who junked you for that one. Freakin G$ trolls are everywhere.
Ben Landen killing offset poor jobs number in short term...maybe connected. We are starting to see the initial effect of the slowing in the GROWTH in deficit spending. Expect a 5-8% contraction in GDP if budget was balanced. No way this will be allowed as the elite families making trillions will be exposed. At this point, poor jobs numbers lends support to even higher deficit spending.
This just in......Ben Laden......is still dead.
More film at 11:00......no pictures though.
shit, and I only have a photographic memory. I think you solved the mystery though. They killed BEN laden not his brother Bin
Zandi has no soul - Totally off topic - TD any insight on 'Yentervention' as you have named it? Where the hell is the G7? Last time the G7 officially intervened - no sign of the lads currently - any insight would be appreciated!
Wow, now that is horrendous. Luckily we have a unlimited amount of food stamps! This is just sad, when not even CNBC tries to spin it, the propaganda network.
Economist, I believe have proven, they are obsolete, at least the Keynesian ones. When have they been right in the past ten years? At all!
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
Arent alot of those people on unemployment comming off about now? The 99'ers as there called..
Yup. Most completed their 99 week tour in the past few months. Another million will lose UI benefits between now and June. It's a good news story because it will really improve the official unemployment rate. ;-)
2009 Jobloss by month chart
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/jobs_nov.png
Leisman is holding a CB circle jerk tomorrow. As per usual taxpayers and savers, will be left eating the cracker.
We need to create 300,000 jobs a month just to stay even. This is total utter central bankster planning *FAIL*.
I'll put it this way- If I had presented anything that has gone on from the FED in a freshman Econ 101 class, I would have gotten an 'F' and told to retake.
They can spin it all they like, but at this point even a damn moron can see this is all a joke.
SD-1:
Minor quibble: These are job losses, and, as you probaly know, jobs created are something else. So, if GM lays off 400K workers, and HP hires 500K workers, the unemployment numbers will show and increase of roughly 400K - eventhough the economy is getting an increase of 100K jobs.
-- dart
So, youre saying we're actually creating far more than 800K jobs a month then? Somethin tells me 'nah'.
Are you counting the 62,000 high quality jobs that McDonalds just created? Wait a minute.... they are all part-time jobs...oh and the people that already work there are getting less hours. So, 62,000 part time jobs...... and a reduction of 20,000 full-time McDonalds jobs to part-time status. Ding Ding Ding.... McDonalds wins...now, they don't have to pay benefits like health care. McDonalds has just helped create more working poor.
Don't forget 100,000 new workers enter the labor force each month due to population reaching working age.
So you mean they are lying to us?
haaaahahahaaaa the truth is coming out...watch it before it disappears - i know o/t.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuqZfaj34nc
wow. I have heard nothing about this. Thank you for the video. My opinion of Gaddafi has just changed from conviction sell to neutral.
You have been remiss in your duty to keep yourself informed:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/libya-all-about-oil-or-all-about-banking
;-)
where is my mind!?!?!?!?!
thank you. I must have been high that day.
thanks for the clip Rusty. RT is at least, if not certainly more, credible as CNN/FOX. So, I do give this merit. I was not aware of this. Thanks for the info.
And to our noble peace prize winner, all I can say is Truth hurts, eh?
Very good find!
I especially like Celente's "Iraq broccoli" comment.
Great ending line in the newscast
Libya to the U.S. on the price of oil..."Sorry, the price has gone up......and we want gold!"
just like saddam
And they did revise upward last week's already bad claims number :)
It was snowing in Minnesota last week. Maybe that had something to do with the miss?
I could use an Obama pep rally speech about now...
"I saved the world, it was Bush's fault yada yada"
I want them to play recordings and release e-mails from Sept. 12, 2001 of Obama and Rahm Emmanuel trying to figure out how Chicago can take advantage of the problems in New York.
those people in front of the WH sunday eve are being bused to ground zero.
shameless hypocrisy - holder and obama are still pursuing criminal charges against the CIA that made this OBL story possible. waterboarding is supposed torture but gunning down OBL is the new liberal wonder
http://youtu.be/DP_2o3220o4
so much better than obama.
Twenty or so minutes ago, Bob Pisani said that the numbers were "a little worse than expected." If that's not spin, I don't know what is.
430K avg weekly job loss for 2 1/2 years its a freakin nightmare! 'A little worse'...lol nice job media whores.
remember they dont expect much from an affirmative action admin. so "alittle" might be correct
Relax folks, bloomberg says this is all because of "anomalies".......
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-05/jobless-claims-in-u-s-unexpectedly-jump-due-to-special-factors.html
Funny they don't mention the biggest anomaly of all, the Federal Reserve
Read again.....A Fed underling in this article beats the drum for more printing....QE3 is coming.
"Double-dip recession" has become obvious, so it seems...
They can always hire more census workers to go count grains of sand at the beach. That'll keep everyone distracted for awhile.
As usual, retailers like Abercrombie are totally unfazed from:
- Bad jobs data
- Inflation/deflation debates
- Middle East turmoil
- Wildly gyrating metals and currencies.
Priorities; got em.
LOL RainbowTrader tryin to act all gulliable and stupid again...gee how much does Tyler pay you to do this act?
Gosh Tyler, I envy your excellent sense of humor. I bet you are invited to a great number of parties and that your family and friends are grateful to have you.
Once again, thank you for doing this.
...and for those of us getting sheered on paper silver, here's a clip in light of the 5th margin hike in 8 days:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDSud7vAH_0
Looking at the options chain for SLV, I still have hopes my remaining calls won't expire worthless. I've got puts but the positions have not been enough to offset the mass destruction wipeout in calls. I'm hanging in there and hoping, and praying. I'm not much concerned about losing money on physical. Good luck to all.
Harsh as it may be - read the disclaimer- to the right, 7 lines up from the bottom - the Wall Street way - don't do what I'm saying, do what I'm doing and that's you.
You will thank him for the cuts and brusies when the swelling goes down.
Advise given by Trautman Wasserman &Co - formally called Hook'em and Hose'em (but the name was to close to the Truth)
you forgot to remind me that I also need to exercise more and eat my vegetables (chuckle).....I'm just poking back at you. I know about the disclaimer and I am a big boy who makes his own bad investment decisions, obviously.
I sure do look forward to the swelling going down though...I'm looking forward to the next round....July calls. Heck if the silver price goes to $28 by 4 pm tomorrow, I just might make enough on my puts to cover my call losses.
I have yet to see the Japan effect in play - give it in 3-2-1.
Judas priest these guys have the brains of smashed crabs.
or may be the weather or ------ give me something I can believe in.
Breaking News ------ Osama bin ladin is STILL dead.
USA USA USA and all that Rar Rar Rar.
Until the Banks are restrained..... on empty ears and fuel tanks it will fall
6th May Flash Crash anniversary is on a Friday this year.
Its also Gordon Gekko's birthday.
And yet the market is still dismissing it, and stocks are showing strong signs of another rebound. This is proof that there is not free market. It's all manipulated!
Definately good enough for a green close.
Almost green!! QE3 is getting priced in.
Estimated layoffs in texas is 335,000 due to budget shortfall.....those are some big numbers.,....new york and california will be similar....
NASDAQ just turned green.
I want a "Special Factors" t-shirt!
FACT:
type ILLUMINATI on your browser backwardly and add dot? com.
Now I'm worried.
gee thanks now I'm gonna probably be supertracked or j-damned or something.
sorry, should have added that it is the New St Aven website. I have ran across some other scarry shit this morning to boot.
In this empire, all roads lead to Tavistock, Langley, Fort Meade whatever.
Did it...and I'll be damned. This is a sick joke. I wonder what other words they have used?
It is getting sick.
"The cowardly Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan handed 60 trillion yen over to the Federal Reserve Board crime syndicate immediately after his country was attacked with HAARP and nuclear terror, according to Japanese security police sources. The extortion money was paid off following threats to use HAARP to cause Mt. Fuji to erupt. For those of you still too brainwashed to believe such a thing is possible, please take a look at the following transcript available on the US Defense Department’s home page:"
http://eclinik.wordpress.com/vital-issues/ben-fulford/japan%E2%80%99s-government-threatened-with-more-haarp-attacks-pays-60-trillion-yen-to-feds/
That's so f*cked up.
HOLY CRAP! That takes you to a NSA site. Have your firewall on MAX, and don't accept the "add ons" or the cookies.
Simple re-direct /troll
Registrant:
John Fenley
1985N 360E
Provo, Utah 84604-1803
United States
Registered through: GoDaddy.com, Inc. (http://www.godaddy.com)
Domain Name: ITANIMULLI.COM
Created on: 20-Nov-02
Expires on: 20-Nov-12
Last Updated on: 22-Nov-10
Administrative Contact:
Fenley, John Pontifier@hotmail.com
1985N 360E
Provo, Utah 84604-1803
United States
8014273274
Technical Contact:
Fenley, John Pontifier@hotmail.com
1985N 360E
Provo, Utah 84604-1803
United States
8014273274
Domain servers in listed order:
NS45.DOMAINCONTROL.COM
NS46.DOMAINCONTROL.COM
Source:
http://pontifier.livejournal.com/
Come on now.. keep the tinfoil shiny, this is re-used crack pipe variety.
That's fuckin nuts
Its the nice weather. Everyone was waiting for a sunny day to file their UE claim. Oh wait, that was last month
Oh....and the 10:30 to 12:00 P.M. ET smack down on silver will commence soon, sending it down at least $2 +.
The Bernank says these numbers are transitory.
the gleetards at cnbc have been given instructions to act doomy and gloomy to set the backdrop for QE2.b
Blizzard here in Oklahoma, expect 500K next week
Light rain in New York on Friday - that could push it to 550k!
It's all swings and roundabouts - here we have 2 sides of the same coin. I know the UK weather is unreliable - but this is absurd!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/weather-and-royal-weddin...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/may/03/thorntons-profit-warning-...
So is a sunny April good....or bad for the Economy?
A website, http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/ has been reporting substantial layoffs--hundreds to thousands at a time, of state government employees for a couple of months.
on Thu, 05/05/2011 - 10:13
#1243018
A website, http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/ has been reporting substantial layoffs--hundreds to thousands at a time, of state government employees for a couple of months.
good
fuck em
I'm sick of paying property taxes so those asshats can live better then me
I'm sick of paying new and higher fees everytime I turn around
This is exactly the same as 1930 - 1940 - back then they had less imagination and 'factors' to choose from. They had about 4 years of calling 'bottom' - followed by another 6 of calling 'recovery' and everytime the predictions didn't rin g true - they would make up some reason for the particular failure - rather than look at the economic picture.
It's all in J.k.Galbraiths book - the great crash - the newspaper headlines were on a par with the MSM feed of today. Totally detached from reality and reason - to the point where nobody even listened anymore but they kept on printing them anyway....
Building bridges to nowhere & high speed trains slush fund is drying up. 92% allocation.
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2011
http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/default.aspx
i think this is a blip.
Yea it is a blip, every week for 2 1/2 years.
Why they missed the targets:
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (hereinafter "OCC") a bureau of the United States Department of the Treasury, is the primary regulator of all nationally chartered banking institutions. The OCC is responsible for promoting the safety and soundness of the country's national banking system and maintaining its competitiveness, efficiency, integrity and stability in the financial marketplace. The OCC has a requirement for the provision of vision benefits and administrative support services.
PLEASE NOTE: The OCC Vision Benefits and Administration Request for Proposal has been delayed and will be posted on or about May 3, 2011.
Thank you.
PLEASE NOTE: The OCC Vision Benefits and Administration Request for Proposal has been delayed and will be posted on or about May 13, 2011.
https://www.fbo.gov/?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=94c6d1ce19cb9ee027fa8068...
Wondering at the CV of the OCC ("Comptroller")...
and the dollar is up strong on this news?
wtf/ over
juggling chainsaws looks cool until it doesn't
what is everyone on wall st & .gov on crack?
Day be de only ones who can aford it Bro
Barack Barry Hussein Soetoro Obama sends ZH'ers a message:
"the UE numbers are conspiracy theories"