Charting Today's Second Worst Ever Initial Claims Miss To Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture

Today's horrendous Initial Claims number was so bad that not even CNBC tried to spin it. In fact, as John Lohman points out, it was the second biggest miss to consensus in history! Of course, seeing how this is consensus and the BLS does not reveal any unknown information, we wonder just how difficult is it to factor in any special factors in determining project numbers, and if the answer is "very" then why do we need economists in the first place (that's rhetorical). And while Liesman is in Europe on some assignment, here is Goldman explaining why the historic miss was based entirely on special factors.

Charting historical misses to consensus.

And heeeeeere's Goldman:


1. Initial jobless claims rose to 474k in the last week of April, from 431k in the previous week. The Department of Labor (DOL) cited three main factors behind the increase. First, plant shutdowns in the auto sector caused temporary layoffs. Second, Oregon reformatted its extended benefits program which "also pulled in some new claimants" (according to Bloomberg). Third, initial claims in New York rose due to seasonal adjustment problems. According to the DOL, the change in Oregon accounted for only 1,000 or so of the increase, and the impact of auto shutdowns was "very small". The major factor behind the increase was "administrative", reflecting seasonal claims in New York that were all filed in a single week. This accounted for about 25,000 of the increase last week, according to the DOL.

2. Even with these distortions accounted for, the result was still poor, and suggests some slowing of employment growth. This is more likely to have implications for the May employment report than for tomorrow's report, which is based on a survey conducted in the week of April 10-16, well before the numbers reported today.

3. Nonfarm productivity grew at a 1.6% annual rate in Q1, better than we or the consensus expected. Nonfarm output significantly outpaced economy-wide GDP growth (3.1% versus 1.8%) while employee hours grew at a similar rate to the past two quarters (1.4%). Unit labor costs were up slightly more than expected, and 1.2% on a year-over-year basis, although in historical terms these remain extremely muted.

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GetZeeGold's picture



Damn....missed again.



Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Is that guy talking about the size of Bernanke's wang?

GetZeeGold's picture


Is that guy talking about the size of Bernanke's..... does explain why the screw job doesn't seem to actually hurt.....that bad.



Id fight Gandhi's picture

That's more of a peering-though-a-magnifying-glass gesture.

CPL's picture

He'll never touch bottom, but he'll be able to bang the hell out of the sides.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Some people just don't know when to give up.

DaveyJones's picture

Beat me to it. Brilliant show. Look at the creators. The more I think about the ineptitude of our government the more I think about the show. Caught a rare interview with Barbara Feldman when Don Adams died, nice. Guess there was a big hold up and you could not get the old episodes on DVD. Luckily they're available now. Guess Chaos won afterall......  

pre-waterboard humor

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I always loved the cone of silence, including all the various derivations such as the mobile or underwater ones. They could never hear each other, but everyone else could always hear them. :>)


DaveyJones's picture

everyone would hear them because they would end up bending out underneath and start yelling at each other :)

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The parallels between CONTROL and Security are too numerous to list other than incompetence.

Don Birnam's picture

There is no comedy such as this anymore, IMO. A rotary phone in the heel of a Florsheim: classic men's accessory. ( Do they sell these at Brookstone ? ) As an aside, Don Adams' personal automobile was, for many years, the red '65 Sunbeam Tiger he drove in the credits for the first several seasons.

Problem Is's picture

+5... Hilarious CD!!
It's Timmay Jeethner talking to a pre-beard Bernank about to load the helicopter...

Mary Shapiro is going to make a double-butt-ugly Agent 99...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I thought it was Karma calling when I found the photo of Maxwell Smart showing us how small a miss it was along with the Chief of CONTROL holding bags of money. Priceless.

bankonzhongguo's picture

This is why they "killed" bin ladin.

Too bad the "mission accomplished - part deux" was as effective as a CME silver margin hike.


RunningMan's picture

Start hiring more spin specialists. 

Use of Weapons's picture

Funny you should mention that.

Seems ICE wants to know why Capital flight is occurring.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Liesman is in Europe on some assignment. 

Steve is visiting England, where he can learn that the English translation of his surname is, "a man that lies."  One can't hide from one's heritage.


I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

Excellent observation.  Is his middle name "Wurm?"

Temporalist's picture

The title of the article you link is

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Jump Due to Anomalies

By "Anomalies" they mean people who can't find jobs.

The Third Man's picture

Notice how the drums are starting to beat inside the FED for QE3?

Stimulus Necessary

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren yesterday said record stimulus is necessary to spur the “anemic” economy and that raising interest rates to combat increasing food and fuel prices would impede growth.

Alex Kintner's picture

Yeah right. Like QE 1&2 were sooo good at generating jobs. QE3 will complete the annihilation the seniors living on fixed income and they spill into the labor market to push the unemployment rate to 50%. Dammit, freakin blood pressure.  I need a nap.

Mentaliusanything's picture

"The four-week moving average for jobless claims, a less- volatile measure, rose to 431,250 from 409,000."

Well I'm glad thats sorted yah fuckers

Alex Kintner's picture

Ha ha ha.

Bloomberg: The "Spring Break" effect. Oh for chrise sakes, now they are just making sh1+ up.

Segestan's picture

Not to worry these are just more of the millions of Fat , Lazy Americans abusing tax payers. Jobs that only illegal minorities really want. Move along.

Clorox Cowboy's picture

I'm beyond fed-up at this point with hearing everyone blame bad news on problems with seasonal adjustment!!  My 3 year old daughter understands that you don't change the rules in the middle of the turds at GS liked seasonal adjustments just fine when it gave you good numbers (ones that match your laughable GDP estimates), so no, I'm're stuck with it.

GetZeeGold's picture turds at GS


Wow....does the promotion come with a raise?





Alex Kintner's picture

+10. LOL. Oh man, who junked you for that one. Freakin G$ trolls are everywhere.

tempo's picture

Ben Landen killing offset poor jobs number in short term...maybe connected. We are starting to see the initial effect of the slowing in the GROWTH in deficit spending. Expect a 5-8% contraction in GDP if budget was balanced. No way this will be allowed as the elite families making trillions will be exposed. At this point, poor jobs numbers lends support to even higher deficit spending.

GetZeeGold's picture



This just in......Ben still dead.


More film at pictures though.




DaveyJones's picture

shit, and I only have a photographic memory. I think you solved the mystery though. They killed BEN laden not his brother Bin

willien1derland's picture

TD Zandi's assessment of today's Jobless Claims data (Moody's Analytics) - Initial U.S. jobless claims are not moving in the right direction, but while the movement is discouraging some temporary factors appear to be at play. According to the Labor Department, supply-related disruptions due to the Japanese earthquake are a factor. A new benefits program in Oregon and an unanticipated seasonal issue in New York also may have added to the outsized gain seen in the latest week. Thus the labor market remains poised for improvement; claims should trend back below 400,000 per week, as they did in the first quarter.


Damage to the labor market over the last several years, though, has been great. Counting both the regular UI program and extended and emergency benefits, there are 8 million unemployed workers; roughly half have been unemployed for greater than 26 weeks. Net job gains are forecast to average close to 200,000 per month this year and above 250,000 per month in 2012. Even at this pace, the labor market will take several years to recoup the losses suffered during the recession.


Zandi has no soul - Totally off topic - TD any insight on 'Yentervention' as you have named it? Where the hell is the G7? Last time the G7 officially intervened - no sign of the lads currently - any insight would be appreciated!

Silver Bug's picture

Wow, now that is horrendous. Luckily we have a unlimited amount of food stamps! This is just sad, when not even CNBC tries to spin it, the propaganda network.


Economist, I believe have proven, they are obsolete, at least the Keynesian ones. When have they been right in the past ten years? At all!

silvertrain's picture

Arent alot of those people on unemployment comming off about now? The 99'ers as there called..

Alex Kintner's picture

Yup. Most completed their 99 week tour in the past few months. Another million will lose UI benefits between now and June. It's a good news story because it will really improve the official unemployment rate. ;-)


2009 Jobloss by month chart

lizzy36's picture

Leisman is holding a CB circle jerk tomorrow. As per usual taxpayers and savers, will be left eating the cracker.

SheepDog-One's picture

We need to create 300,000 jobs a month just to stay even. This is total utter central bankster planning *FAIL*.

I'll put it this way- If I had presented anything that has gone on from the FED in a freshman Econ 101 class, I would have gotten an 'F' and told to retake.

They can spin it all they like, but at this point even a damn moron can see this is all a joke.

darteaus's picture


Minor quibble:  These are job losses, and, as you probaly know, jobs created are something else.  So, if GM lays off 400K workers, and HP hires 500K workers, the unemployment numbers will show and increase of roughly 400K - eventhough the economy is getting an increase of 100K jobs.

-- dart

SheepDog-One's picture

So, youre saying we're actually creating far more than 800K jobs a month then? Somethin tells me 'nah'.

SirIssacNewton's picture

Are you counting the 62,000 high quality jobs that McDonalds just created?  Wait a minute.... they are all part-time jobs...oh and the people that already work there are getting less hours.  So, 62,000 part time jobs...... and a reduction of 20,000 full-time McDonalds jobs to part-time status.  Ding Ding Ding.... McDonalds, they don't have to pay benefits like health care.  McDonalds has just helped create more working poor.

Alex Kintner's picture

Don't forget 100,000 new workers enter the labor force each month due to population reaching working age.

Abitdodgie's picture

So you mean they are lying to us?

Rusty Shorts's picture

haaaahahahaaaa the truth is coming it before it disappears - i know o/t.


augie's picture

wow. I have heard nothing about this. Thank you for the video. My opinion of Gaddafi has just changed from conviction sell to neutral.