Charting Why 0% Y/Y GDP Growth Is A Distinct Possibility

Tyler Durden's picture

Today's chart of the week comes from Bloomberg's Senior Economist, Joseph Brusuelas, who correlates initial claims (inverted axis) and GDP (Y/Y% not annualized). Alas for Tim Geithner and anyone who read his "Welcome to the Recovery" Op-Ed from August 2010 clearly written under the influence of hallucinogenic Kool-Aid, it appears that the economy is about to grind to grind to a halt. The chart needs no explanation.

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FOC 1183's picture

Liesman no doubt has a scientific explanation

slaughterer's picture

05-26 12:27: AUCTION PREVIEW: USD 29bln (Act) 7y Note Auction.

There goes another $29,000,000,000 in pension funding.  The future retiress of the USA thank you, Timmy.

DosZap's picture

Another version, "Don't weep for me Argentina!".

NotApplicable's picture

He'll likely claim that the correlation displays just how accurate the government's GDP calculation is, while ignoring its ramifications.

Or, he'll skip that altogether, and pick a random fight with Santelli.

drink or die's picture

I don't think "stuck in second gear" is an appropriate title as "rolling backwards down a hill into oncoming traffic" is.

Chuck Bone's picture

Or "the light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train."

HamyWanger's picture

Not a single chance. A figure like this would make the Administration look bad, so they certainly won't allow it. 

knowless's picture

OT but, dem senator ron wyden, representative from the state of oregon says there is a "secret" patriot act..

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/05/secret-patriot-act

NotApplicable's picture

Why does Ron Wyden hate freedom?

MachoMan's picture

The government is free to interpret its rules until the judiciary gets a say...  (and the judiciary might get multiple bites at the apple).

Unless the text of the secret patriot act is secret, then it's not secret...  we're all free to interpret the provisions...  and we have to presume that the government will interpret those provisions in the most advantageous way to the government...  hence, why passing virtually any law that removes freedoms is incredibly problematic [the drafting talent of our representatives (often attorneys) and their handlers sucks shit through a straw (probably why they ended up working for the government anyway)].

DosZap's picture

MM,

And herein lies the problem;

The government is free to interpret its rules until the judiciary gets a say

 

The damage IS done, before it get's to the Judiciary.

MachoMan's picture

Your example includes items outside the boundaries of mere interpretation.  In other words, the government is always free to disregard the law until checks and balances can be implemented to curb such activity.  See generally, gun confiscation around Katrina.

Yes, the damage is done long before it reaches the judiciary, but what are we to do about it?  What check or balance do you propose that is not already implemented?  How do you expedite this function?  We already have a constitution...  and even it gets chipped away over time (many times for good reasons).

As for the government acting in good faith on a reasonable interpretation of a particular statute, we have to ensure that the laws are drafted to prevent multiple interpretations...  If it were a criminal law, then it would possibly be void for vagueness...  but, not so much when granting the government additional powers.  The hacks drafting these laws couldn't cut it in private practice (if they could, they could probably be making significantly more money...  at least disclosed money).  Or, they are drafted by master word smiths who purposefully make them void and full of loopholes...  and our representatives are too stupid or lazy to look over what they pass with a super magnifying glass.

We can stop multiple interpretations of laws with proper drafting (and possibly requiring the government to issue its interpretation, which would then bind it to act accordingly)[and if we cannot adequately draft a law, then it need not be passed]...  however, we cannot stop the government from acting contrary to our rights...  the genie is always out of the bottle and we must seek remedial measures after harm...

tarsubil's picture

Anyone else really curious about how big their file is? But then again, I got a clearance so, who knows what they are doing.

MachoMan's picture

They need to give an address where we can send documents to add to our own files.  *queues copier, plops ass on copier, hits copy*

Diogenes's picture

Something just occurred to me. It has bothered me for a long time that politicians can enact such laws and they never seem to worry that they will be used against them. Possibly this is because they believe there is only one group that will ever have power and they are it.

MachoMan's picture

The more practical answer is that they're fucking retarded hacks that couldn't cut it in private practice and can't plan past their noses.  The sheer volume and complicated nature of most of our legislation ensures that they have not the time to scrutinize all their actions...  as a result, they get bullet point lists and give those lists to the public...  so long as they can sell the list, they pass the law.  Of course, the devil is always in the details...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

While everyone remembers the massive first drop of the roller coaster it's often the second drop that, while shorter in duration, has a much greater velocity. Hang on folks, this is gonna hurt.

Move out of the way, we got a bleeder over here.

jus_lite_reading's picture

BTW CD I loved your write up on TD and ZH! Bravo! But I must say that I endorse gold and silver as the second monst imporant items one can possess now. Anyways the shit is really hitting the fan around the world.

http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2011/05/theatrical-thursday-greenpeace-sla...

If radiation levels so far from the coast are being detected in fish then we are more then FUBAR. How about the earless bunny being born? YUP!!! The end is near for sure as you said! With zero growth and hyperinflation coming..... its all over soon

 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thank you.

But please understand that what I was saying is not that you shouldn't prepare with food and PMs. Rather that if that is all you are doing and you are not preparing your community, then your community will turn on you principally because you are prepared.

If the world/nation/state is really headed for a fall, it will first be felt by you on a local level. You are physically tied to the community in which you live. If your community does not prepare as a group then it will attack those best prepared and take what you have.

You must prepare yourself and those around you because you can not defend yourself from your community. Thus you must organize the community in order to defend yourself.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

You do not understand the process.  Communities require 2200 calories per mouth per day.  Communities will be overrun by the hordes fleeing the cities, who will be armed with Uzis, not single shot rifles.  

Safety is under the radar.  Not a collective radar that is an obvious target.

MachoMan's picture

These hordes will run mouth first into the waiting arms of the land barrons...  if you think Robert E. Lee Wilson was suspect, you haven't seen anything yet...  the box cars will unload those "escorted" from the cities...  and dump them off at the company store, where they will purchase a shovel that will last a few weeks and will cost more than they make in a month.  They will remain there until they draw enough courage to begin collectively bargaining again.  Hopefully we are lucky enough to avoid this fate, but whining about entitlements rather than implementing a system of fairness is destined to lead to disaster (for most, fortune for some).

ElvisDog's picture

I disagree with this common, Mad Max-style vision of the future. One thing about the U.S. of A. is that there are military bases everywhere. In the event of a general societal breakdown, I think the military/law enforcement would take control of things and declare martial law to keep those "hordes" you speak of in check. Look at what happened in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union for an example. The U.S. might not follow the exact same course of events, but its trajectory would probably "rhyme" with what happened in Russia.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Which is why I say your biggest danger is from your local community, not from outside your local community. Desperate people do desperate things and they don't travel far to do them.

augie's picture

Safety is under the radar.  Not a collective radar that is an obvious target.

This i can agree with.

 

However, i think you are setting yourself up for a short and lonely existence. Are you planning on ever joining a "community" or just waiting till the dust settles to make your move? I'd love to have people like CD around me but all my friends are scattered up and down the east coast. I'm alone by necessity not by choice.

EscapeKey's picture

No doubt some crackhead is already contemplating "solving" this by increased government spending.

buzzsaw99's picture

Riding the clutch and grinding the gears is a more apt description.

augie's picture

if that isn't an argument for letting someone with PRACTICAL expereince drive the bus, I dont know what is.

AldoHux_IV's picture

Kind of like Groundhog's Day where the same shit keeps happening everyday until we get our shit together-- I hear in the movie that the character re-lived the day until he was 5000 something.  Christ I hope it doesn't take that long for the peasantry to wake up.

fuu's picture

Lower lows and lower highs for the last 10 years. Depression started over a decade ago.

 

We live in a complete fantasy world at this point.

sbenard's picture

Striking chart! And it doesn't look like one or the other leads, either. They appear to move in lock step with each other!

Rainman's picture

Of course it's stuck in QE2nd gear, that's why we need QE3rd gear.

NotApplicable's picture

Eagerly awaits QEOverdrive, complete with nitrous oxide injection.

jtmo3's picture

Who gives a rats ass. The dow is up.

slaughterer's picture

At least 0% is not negative. /sarc

jtmo3's picture

It really is negative cause they're paying these bastards to take the money.

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Adjusted for monetary inflation we have negative growth.

Tuco

sbenard's picture

"For the stock market, nothing seems to matter until, suddenly, it does." -- Charlie Minter, Comstock Partners

In other words, Wall Street has a Pollyanna complex!

lizzy36's picture

Well KC Fed Manufacturing Index was -2 m/m vs 17.

New orders collapsed to -15 m/m vs. +11.

No wonder during a lunch of G8 leaders the United States "asked for a serious debate about the euro's weakness against the dollar that could create problems for U.S. exports," the source said.

The take away:the US is not slowing down, it is just not destroying it's fiat currency with enough vigor. Perhaps is should try the Belarus route?

FOC 1183's picture

good catch.  not a long history with KC, but further confirmation of other regional indices.  if ISM is above 55, we can assume foul play

NotApplicable's picture

I read that as KFC Manufacturing, which worried me (though I prefer Popeye's anyway).

In related news, my cheap, authentic Mexican joint isn't so cheap anymore. I just paid $8.35 for 3 rolled tacos and 3 carnita tacos. I should've known when I didn't see the 99 cent taco sign out front anymore. Good thing so much corn goes into ethanol!

marcusfenix's picture

now would be the perfect time for Biden to come out and start pimping "summer of recovery, part 2"...

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Too bad we went $1.5T in debt and printed $2T to achieve zero growth.

DB Cooper's picture

Exactly ++  Oh well, at least it's just play money.

NotApplicable's picture

We? Must've been you. My credit limit isn't that high.