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Charting Why 0% Y/Y GDP Growth Is A Distinct Possibility

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's chart of the week comes from Bloomberg's Senior Economist, Joseph Brusuelas, who correlates initial claims (inverted axis) and GDP (Y/Y% not annualized). Alas for Tim Geithner and anyone who read his "Welcome to the Recovery" Op-Ed from August 2010 clearly written under the influence of hallucinogenic Kool-Aid, it appears that the economy is about to grind to grind to a halt. The chart needs no explanation.

 

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Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:39 | 1313531 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

Liesman no doubt has a scientific explanation

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:55 | 1313593 dbach
dbach's picture

...or meteorological

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:07 | 1313617 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

05-26 12:27: AUCTION PREVIEW: USD 29bln (Act) 7y Note Auction.

There goes another $29,000,000,000 in pension funding.  The future retiress of the USA thank you, Timmy.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:51 | 1313784 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Another version, "Don't weep for me Argentina!".

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:18 | 1313668 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

He'll likely claim that the correlation displays just how accurate the government's GDP calculation is, while ignoring its ramifications.

Or, he'll skip that altogether, and pick a random fight with Santelli.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:37 | 1313532 sergei
sergei's picture

Is this tragedy for Real?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0p30eNVeGw

 

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:41 | 1313536 drink or die
drink or die's picture

I don't think "stuck in second gear" is an appropriate title as "rolling backwards down a hill into oncoming traffic" is.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:48 | 1313571 Chuck Bone
Chuck Bone's picture

Or "the light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train."

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:38 | 1313537 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

Timmy's August 2010 "Welcome to the Recovery" is right up there with Bush's 2003 "Mission Accomplished"

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:39 | 1313542 HamyWanger
HamyWanger's picture

Not a single chance. A figure like this would make the Administration look bad, so they certainly won't allow it. 

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:23 | 1313674 knowless
knowless's picture

OT but, dem senator ron wyden, representative from the state of oregon says there is a "secret" patriot act..

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/05/secret-patriot-act

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:23 | 1313682 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

good find!

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:34 | 1313723 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Why does Ron Wyden hate freedom?

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:49 | 1313780 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

The government is free to interpret its rules until the judiciary gets a say...  (and the judiciary might get multiple bites at the apple).

Unless the text of the secret patriot act is secret, then it's not secret...  we're all free to interpret the provisions...  and we have to presume that the government will interpret those provisions in the most advantageous way to the government...  hence, why passing virtually any law that removes freedoms is incredibly problematic [the drafting talent of our representatives (often attorneys) and their handlers sucks shit through a straw (probably why they ended up working for the government anyway)].

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 14:17 | 1313844 DosZap
DosZap's picture

MM,

And herein lies the problem;

The government is free to interpret its rules until the judiciary gets a say

 

The damage IS done, before it get's to the Judiciary.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 10:04 | 1316344 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Your example includes items outside the boundaries of mere interpretation.  In other words, the government is always free to disregard the law until checks and balances can be implemented to curb such activity.  See generally, gun confiscation around Katrina.

Yes, the damage is done long before it reaches the judiciary, but what are we to do about it?  What check or balance do you propose that is not already implemented?  How do you expedite this function?  We already have a constitution...  and even it gets chipped away over time (many times for good reasons).

As for the government acting in good faith on a reasonable interpretation of a particular statute, we have to ensure that the laws are drafted to prevent multiple interpretations...  If it were a criminal law, then it would possibly be void for vagueness...  but, not so much when granting the government additional powers.  The hacks drafting these laws couldn't cut it in private practice (if they could, they could probably be making significantly more money...  at least disclosed money).  Or, they are drafted by master word smiths who purposefully make them void and full of loopholes...  and our representatives are too stupid or lazy to look over what they pass with a super magnifying glass.

We can stop multiple interpretations of laws with proper drafting (and possibly requiring the government to issue its interpretation, which would then bind it to act accordingly)[and if we cannot adequately draft a law, then it need not be passed]...  however, we cannot stop the government from acting contrary to our rights...  the genie is always out of the bottle and we must seek remedial measures after harm...

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 14:18 | 1313849 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Anyone else really curious about how big their file is? But then again, I got a clearance so, who knows what they are doing.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 14:00 | 1317529 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

They need to give an address where we can send documents to add to our own files.  *queues copier, plops ass on copier, hits copy*

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 15:53 | 1314124 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Something just occurred to me. It has bothered me for a long time that politicians can enact such laws and they never seem to worry that they will be used against them. Possibly this is because they believe there is only one group that will ever have power and they are it.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 13:55 | 1317522 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

The more practical answer is that they're fucking retarded hacks that couldn't cut it in private practice and can't plan past their noses.  The sheer volume and complicated nature of most of our legislation ensures that they have not the time to scrutinize all their actions...  as a result, they get bullet point lists and give those lists to the public...  so long as they can sell the list, they pass the law.  Of course, the devil is always in the details...

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:41 | 1313547 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

While everyone remembers the massive first drop of the roller coaster it's often the second drop that, while shorter in duration, has a much greater velocity. Hang on folks, this is gonna hurt.

Move out of the way, we got a bleeder over here.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:01 | 1313609 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

BTW CD I loved your write up on TD and ZH! Bravo! But I must say that I endorse gold and silver as the second monst imporant items one can possess now. Anyways the shit is really hitting the fan around the world.

http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2011/05/theatrical-thursday-greenpeace-sla...

If radiation levels so far from the coast are being detected in fish then we are more then FUBAR. How about the earless bunny being born? YUP!!! The end is near for sure as you said! With zero growth and hyperinflation coming..... its all over soon

 

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:28 | 1313684 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thank you.

But please understand that what I was saying is not that you shouldn't prepare with food and PMs. Rather that if that is all you are doing and you are not preparing your community, then your community will turn on you principally because you are prepared.

If the world/nation/state is really headed for a fall, it will first be felt by you on a local level. You are physically tied to the community in which you live. If your community does not prepare as a group then it will attack those best prepared and take what you have.

You must prepare yourself and those around you because you can not defend yourself from your community. Thus you must organize the community in order to defend yourself.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:39 | 1313743 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You do not understand the process.  Communities require 2200 calories per mouth per day.  Communities will be overrun by the hordes fleeing the cities, who will be armed with Uzis, not single shot rifles.  

Safety is under the radar.  Not a collective radar that is an obvious target.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 14:02 | 1313817 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

These hordes will run mouth first into the waiting arms of the land barrons...  if you think Robert E. Lee Wilson was suspect, you haven't seen anything yet...  the box cars will unload those "escorted" from the cities...  and dump them off at the company store, where they will purchase a shovel that will last a few weeks and will cost more than they make in a month.  They will remain there until they draw enough courage to begin collectively bargaining again.  Hopefully we are lucky enough to avoid this fate, but whining about entitlements rather than implementing a system of fairness is destined to lead to disaster (for most, fortune for some).

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 14:07 | 1313820 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I disagree with this common, Mad Max-style vision of the future. One thing about the U.S. of A. is that there are military bases everywhere. In the event of a general societal breakdown, I think the military/law enforcement would take control of things and declare martial law to keep those "hordes" you speak of in check. Look at what happened in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union for an example. The U.S. might not follow the exact same course of events, but its trajectory would probably "rhyme" with what happened in Russia.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 16:18 | 1314212 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Which is why I say your biggest danger is from your local community, not from outside your local community. Desperate people do desperate things and they don't travel far to do them.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 14:11 | 1313826 augie
augie's picture

Safety is under the radar.  Not a collective radar that is an obvious target.

This i can agree with.

 

However, i think you are setting yourself up for a short and lonely existence. Are you planning on ever joining a "community" or just waiting till the dust settles to make your move? I'd love to have people like CD around me but all my friends are scattered up and down the east coast. I'm alone by necessity not by choice.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:47 | 1313766 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

No doubt some crackhead is already contemplating "solving" this by increased government spending.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:44 | 1313549 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Riding the clutch and grinding the gears is a more apt description.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:14 | 1313652 augie
augie's picture

if that isn't an argument for letting someone with PRACTICAL expereince drive the bus, I dont know what is.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:41 | 1313550 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Kind of like Groundhog's Day where the same shit keeps happening everyday until we get our shit together-- I hear in the movie that the character re-lived the day until he was 5000 something.  Christ I hope it doesn't take that long for the peasantry to wake up.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:46 | 1313555 fuu
fuu's picture

Lower lows and lower highs for the last 10 years. Depression started over a decade ago.

 

We live in a complete fantasy world at this point.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:44 | 1313558 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Striking chart! And it doesn't look like one or the other leads, either. They appear to move in lock step with each other!

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:44 | 1313559 Fancy Bear
Fancy Bear's picture

Great chart.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:45 | 1313562 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Of course it's stuck in QE2nd gear, that's why we need QE3rd gear.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:08 | 1313622 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Nice.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 16:21 | 1314223 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I read your latest installment. It was well worth the wait. Thanks.

http://madscienceunlimited.com/fiction/aTearForTheSinner.html

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:22 | 1313679 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Eagerly awaits QEOverdrive, complete with nitrous oxide injection.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:51 | 1313580 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

Who gives a rats ass. The dow is up.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:10 | 1313644 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

At least 0% is not negative. /sarc

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:25 | 1313681 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

It really is negative cause they're paying these bastards to take the money.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:41 | 1313736 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Adjusted for monetary inflation we have negative growth.

Tuco

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:56 | 1313590 sbenard
sbenard's picture

"For the stock market, nothing seems to matter until, suddenly, it does." -- Charlie Minter, Comstock Partners

In other words, Wall Street has a Pollyanna complex!

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:57 | 1313591 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Well KC Fed Manufacturing Index was -2 m/m vs 17.

New orders collapsed to -15 m/m vs. +11.

No wonder during a lunch of G8 leaders the United States "asked for a serious debate about the euro's weakness against the dollar that could create problems for U.S. exports," the source said.

The take away:the US is not slowing down, it is just not destroying it's fiat currency with enough vigor. Perhaps is should try the Belarus route?

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:27 | 1313688 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

good catch.  not a long history with KC, but further confirmation of other regional indices.  if ISM is above 55, we can assume foul play

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:31 | 1313702 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I read that as KFC Manufacturing, which worried me (though I prefer Popeye's anyway).

In related news, my cheap, authentic Mexican joint isn't so cheap anymore. I just paid $8.35 for 3 rolled tacos and 3 carnita tacos. I should've known when I didn't see the 99 cent taco sign out front anymore. Good thing so much corn goes into ethanol!

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:57 | 1313601 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

now would be the perfect time for Biden to come out and start pimping "summer of recovery, part 2"...

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 12:59 | 1313606 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Too bad we went $1.5T in debt and printed $2T to achieve zero growth.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:06 | 1313626 DB Cooper
DB Cooper's picture

Exactly ++  Oh well, at least it's just play money.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:29 | 1313704 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

We? Must've been you. My credit limit isn't that high.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:31 | 1313711 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Don't worry, your share will be sucked out of you over time (bought food or gas lately)?

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:05 | 1313610 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

TD,  where is the auction data for today?

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:07 | 1313618 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

The money printer will continue to print money.

What is so hard to understand?

the FED will not allow its two year+ ramp job to come undone.

The free market will have to stop them.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:07 | 1313632 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The free market in equities (which is really as unfree as Soviet show trial) is just waiting for another free ride on Ben's coat-tails.

A free market in commodities is what can stop the Benster.  If only we could get the clearing house regs out of the way.   

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:13 | 1313647 Tungsten Checks In
Tungsten Checks In's picture

QE 3 will have to come much sooner than many previously thought

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:17 | 1313662 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Kick ass user name, reps.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:10 | 1313648 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

There really should be a Geithners greatest hits somewhere.

Remember from a short 3 months ago:

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said the economic recovery has put the world on a better footing to withstand the increase in oil prices caused by turmoil in the Middle East.

“The economy is in a much stronger position to handle”rising oil prices, Geithner said today during a Bloomberg Breakfast in Washington. “Central banks have a lot of experience in managing these things.”

MMHMM....I am going to put all my faith in the Central Bankers to "manage these things".

And because i enjoy a good giggle from the same piece:

The U.S. economyis projected to grow 3.2 percent in 2011, the most in seven years, according to the median forecast of 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg from Feb. 2 to Feb. 8.

The economy is gradually getting stronger,” Geithner said today, adding “I wouldn’t get carried away with it.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-23/geithner-says-world-is-in-a-better-position-to-handle-surge-in-oil-prices.html

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:13 | 1313660 augie
augie's picture

+1

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:23 | 1313673 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Hows that math coming along?

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:21 | 1313676 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

So changes in employment and changes in GDP appear to be highly correlated. 

Shocking.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:34 | 1313715 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, it is when you consider how GDP is calculated. That it correlates to anything is quite an achievement.

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 14:08 | 1313828 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

Finding lines that demonstrate a level of correlation is a fairly easy task (that may tell you nothing) compared to the much more important finding of lines that demonstrate a level of causation.  

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:29 | 1313695 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

2nd gear? In real terms we're stuck in 1st gear. 

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 13:47 | 1313769 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

our interpretation of GDP and claims: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/content/dm-in-the-am-5-26-11

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 14:01 | 1313805 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

"Society's needs come before the individual's needs." -- A. Hitler

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 14:24 | 1313874 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Gosplan,

Reads eerily familiar does it not.

Only problem, is Individuals make up Society..............

Thu, 05/26/2011 - 14:04 | 1313814 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

GDP is a joke. Why don't they publish a real GDP that doesn't have Government Spending or Financial Services added in? If anything, these two things should be SUBTRACTED since they strip money from the real economy.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 04:55 | 1315729 BlackholeDivestment
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