Charting The Worst And Soon To Be Shortest Economic "Recovery" Ever

Tyler Durden's picture

The Minneapolis Fed has launched a useful charting service which analyzes not only the Great Recession, which allegedly has ended (must be news to the 1.8 million...and growing...newly uncovered unemployed, but we'll take the NBER's word for it) but the even Greater Recovery that we have presumably been in for the past 6 months or so. At least those Fed critters have a twisted sense of humor. In order to quantify just how funny they are, the Min Fed provides the following preamble "The 2007-2009 recession is widely thought to have ended sometime last
summer. How bad was this recession, and how quickly is the economy
recovering? How does this recession and recovery compare to previous
cycles?"How indeed? Here are the charts which just a cursory perusal will lead the peruser to wonder what on earth the administration is smoking. Recovery indeed. 

So here are the pretty charts.

First, a comparison of all recession since 1948 looking at the change in employment. Keep in mind the black dot is the place in time when the recovery presumably started.

Here is a comparable chart for overall economic output:

It is obvious that the "recovery" is so far predicated upon a rise in output, not an improvement in unemployment. And the only reason output is growing is because China, which is doing exactly the same thing the US is, and buying up all excess US production (the part that is not imaginary in the GDP calculation, i.e., the government contribution) has still not imploded. This will likely change very soon with the ever increasing monetary tightening measures adopted by the Chinese.

Going back to employment, it is without doubt that the current Recession Recovery is now the harshest one for US employees since the Great Depression in both length...

and depth...If only the government was truthful in revealing the real economic debalce, the question mark might have been replaced with an actual number

Looking at output next, the data is a little better, but the environment is still the worst it has been in 60 years.

No question mark in the total change chart, just cold, hard truth.

Lastly, a glance at the employment situation in the two hardest hit states from an employment perspective reveals nothing to write the NBER thank you letters about.

With more negative data like the NFP from today coming ever more often, and confirming the recent peak in the economy is behind us, we expect a full double dip soon. As such, the so-called "recovery" will be the shortest one in history.