Charting The Worst And Soon To Be Shortest Economic "Recovery" Ever

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Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:31 | 219094 Hephasteus
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What's the point of a huge nasty recession if it won't send all the troublemakers off to recess so the people who CAN fix it will. This is pointless stupid pain.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:41 | 219116 perchprism
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Seriously.  It makes me think that no political solution is possible, in which case we might as well prepare for a complete collapse so that, phoenix-like, we can rise anew from the ashes. 

Personal disclosure:  Prepared

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:58 | 219142 Hacker
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What political solution is there to population growth vs finite resources?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:09 | 219165 Missing_Link
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I don't think that's the problem so much.  We've always had population growth and finite resources.

What we haven't had throughout history is massive spending and entitlement growth and debt explosion without a corresponding increase in taxable production.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:42 | 219225 DoChenRollingBearing
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Population growth and finite resources have always been there (and always will be).

Our current problems in getting out of this are based on political cowardice and the weakness of our people to stand up and say:

-- We want our country back!

-- Stop the spending!

-- Get the government off our backs!

/rant off

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:57 | 219247 chet
chet's picture

At one point the American President announced we should land people on the moon within 10 years, and we did it.

Now simply reforming boring programs that we know are broken takes more political will than anyone in D.C. can muster.

The front wave of the Baby Boom generation destroyed this country.  Took everything they wanted it, never told themselves "no", charged it to their kids and grandkids, and bitched the whole way about taxes still being too high.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 14:23 | 219282 WaterWings
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Or did we? I'm just sayin':

Everyone, back to sleep. Or go to YouTube:

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:31 | 219432 moneymutt
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Moon was okay with businesses, and gave NASA tons of money to do other "fun" things...

if you plan on doing something big entrenched elite, business folks are okay with, and it happens fast...see TARP...

do something that helps regular folks a little with huge windfall for special inside corny businesses, it happens pretty fact (see Iraq war, Medicare Part D),

propose doing something that helps regular folks without lining some entrenched interests pockets, it might happen (see national health exchange pool for all uninsured and small business to buy private insurance from, able to negotiate same deals big businesses get)

propose something that is good for regular folks, costs taxpayers almost nothing, and hurts insider crony businesses and other entrenched interests (see financial regulation, TBTF etc) and it will almost never happen...

....unless businesses and elite interests are scared to death of revolution.

Why did businesses go along with some of FDR's reforms in 30s...not because they were kind...they were scared, they were looking at class war....short of that, only reform we get is cost-inefficient stuff that throws small bone to regular guy while making others fabulously rich.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:56 | 219246 bokapita
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"We've always had population growth and finite resources."

We have not, actually, in the economics-relevant sense of the phrase. There has always been somewhere else to discover/develop/exploit and not that many people (percentage-wise) doing the exploiting. For instance, the countries of the old British empire, the Americas, the far east. There are no longer nay unknown places and communications have enabled the mass of the world's dispossessed to see how the other 10% live, and they want it too. So right now, for the first time, we really do have resources that are finite in comparison with effective demand.

Cannot end well unless we go about things differently. Not much chance of that short of a collapse forcing it on us all. So, any year now then?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:05 | 219368 DaveyJones
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+100. Nor have we always built an entire society and agriculture system on a substance which took millions of years to form but, within a mere century, is getting to the point where it takes as much energy in to get that same unit of energy out. Without of course building a substantial energy system to take its place. Invading countries takes a lot of energy. Then there's all the excuses.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:37 | 219938 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

our agricultural system is also dependent on fossil water reserves that we are sucking up at a far faster rate than they can be replenished by rainfall. and we're stripping our topsoil with monoculture, fertilizer-heavy farming. oops

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:16 | 219180 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
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That's it. Lets invade Canada. They are sure to be doing soemthing, anything that deserves it.



Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:23 | 219193 I need more cowbell
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They gave us Leo; that's reason aplenty.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:25 | 219196 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

True!  Leo is reason enough.  How's that "buy on the dips" strategy working out for you, Leo?

The Canadians also have solvent banks, if you can believe that.

Let's march northward and raid their reserves!

Silly Canucks, thinking "fiscal responsibility" and other such old-fashioned nonsense would get them anything but trouble.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:13 | 219385 TheFinancialNinja
TheFinancialNinja's picture

Woooaw. Hang on a moment. Not so solvent. Not so safe.

On Canadian "stable banks":

On Canadian "prudent homebuyers":


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:29 | 219208 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Well, we invaded Iraq on a flimsier pretext.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 14:26 | 219290 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"Give us the banks pronto, or we'll nuke Toronto."

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 17:18 | 219717 Mad Max
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Say that to Alberta and I guarantee you that their reply will be some form of "make my day."

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:21 | 219798 milbank
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"I'll take Toronto, Quebec and St. John's Island too."

I think there's a song somewhere in there. ;-)

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 04:34 | 220275 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

heck, a whole musical. I bet you could work in that "I's the b'y" song too.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:35 | 219441 moneymutt
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if we invade them, do we get their laws too, like legalized pot...they do have some nice commodities up there...and the jog down of the border at Toronto seems so asymmetrical, we should at least take Toronto.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 03:42 | 220251 Frank Owen
Frank Owen's picture

pot is not legal here, just for the people who need it for medical reasons. Then again, if you get caught smoking a hoolie outside a bar or something the cops just make you put it out and keep walking. It would be legal if not for our somewhat pushy neighbours to the south. lol

If y'all going to invade Canada - You could call it "Operation Canadian Bacon"  :)

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 04:35 | 220276 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Maybe we could just call it "Operation, eh".

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:17 | 219788 milbank
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It is our duty, as the police of the world, to bring Freedom and Democracy to Canukastan especially, those in the sand oil fields of Alberta.  You know they envy us for our Freedom and Democracy don't you?

Lets Roll!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 17:20 | 219727 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

an interesting wrinkle to this much debated issue is the consideration of the long term and stratospherically escalating indebtedness of Japan especially as %GDP, which has been of late discounted due to the ability of its citizenry to absorb the vast quantity of the national debt (98%) through the purchase of BOJ treasury bonds. Increasing numbers of an aging population reaching retirement coupled with the fact that Japan reached the critical demographic juncture of negative population replacement a decade ago has rapidly depleted the capacity to domestically sustain ever increasing debt service which when coupled with the concomitant loss of tax revenues has created the conditions for the assumption of massive foreign debt holdings. Give the pathetically low yields on bonds and 35% interest on debt service this will not be forthcoming with the only outcome being long delayed hyperinflation growing out of the present debt deflation. Given the fact that Japan is second only to China in holdings of U.S. treasuries, this has serious if not staggering implications for the U.S. as well.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:48 | 219233 Hephasteus
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Can't we teach our phoenixes to quit before we have to take flamethrowers to their asses. Cause this shit is getting old.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:00 | 219147 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:33 | 219100 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Nice to know there is a Minneapolis Fed.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 14:31 | 219287 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

It's all part of the shell game - just keep your eye on the New York one, that's all you have to do. The D.C. location will make an excellent and ironic museum for the Second American Civil War - the location couldn't be any more appropriate.

Only three stars on Yelp:

Change in management coming soon.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:39 | 219111 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

We know it's cold in Minneapoliss, and a drink or two is at times appropriate, but looking at the above charts -- one has to question the guy who put them together and asked -- is he or she on DRUGS. This is the typical idiocy that comes from governments as they always try to "baffle the masses with bullshit" rather than dazzle them with brilliance. Hilarious...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:40 | 219115 IKEA Is Swedish
IKEA Is Swedish's picture

If the recovery out of the 2001 recession was a jobless recovery, does that make the 2007 installment the recoveryless recovery?

That ZIRP thingy is a big disappointment so far.


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:49 | 219128 shargash
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That ZIRP thingy is a big disappointment so far.

Heh. You only say that because you don't work for Goldman.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:21 | 219188 Yophat
Yophat's picture

Hey jobs are being created as we speak....


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:45 | 219119 DaveyJones
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for some strange reason, this headline did not give me an orgasm

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:22 | 219192 Yophat
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sounds like a personal problem

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:46 | 219123 Sqworl
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Roubini called it again, double dip..Boutique hotel logo...:-)

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:12 | 219383 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

He did and I think he got the timing right as well. He also called the strengthening dollar, and the impact on equities, and a critical fail-over of the cheap dollar carry (the latter seems to be next at bat.) He said gold at $1500 was unlikely (or that it was a joke). The guy tends to get it right whenever fundamentals are allowed to rule. He didn't call the short-lived rally because nobody really had a clue that the FED would literally buy the stairway to heaven.


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:39 | 219454 moneymutt
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fed or not, bear market rally is pretty common, takes awhile for sheeple to come to reality, even after a near death exerience, they shrug it off and think good times are still on...but not denying manipulation...I think that explains the long slow increase this fall, real bear rally was probably done this summer...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:44 | 219468 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

It's hard to call it a rally, even. Volumes were essentially zero. Nobody was trading at the peak. Just more smoke and mirrors so they could point to numbers and say "recovery! green shoots!"

The historians will look at the period from March09 to now and call it the largest and most successful act of baseless propaganda the world had ever known.


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:47 | 219124 suteibu
suteibu's picture

It's nice to be in a position not to have to find a job.  Now, if I can just hold on to what I've got so I won't have to find one in a year or two.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:16 | 219394 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

[in a year or two]

A year or 10, you mean. And keep in mind that the job you held last year might not exist as a component of the economy the next time you stick your head out and look around.

Not sniping. I'm glad you are in the clear. Just don't assume that we're bringing the machine back the way it was last time. Prepare yourself for change. Good luck.


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:47 | 219125 Edna R. Rider
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WTF is going on with oil?  USO down 5%?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:53 | 219135 shargash
shargash's picture

IMO, China is rolling over. It has single-handedly been propping up the commodity market. Compliance with quotas by OPEC members is decreasing, at the same time as the rest of the world heads into the double-dip. Despite peak oil, supply is currently higher than demand. Disclosure: I've been short oil since it went over $80/bbl.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:58 | 219143 E pluribus unum
E pluribus unum's picture

China rolling over would also explain the price action in gold. This could get ugly real fast.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:08 | 219162 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Or maybe it is a bubble bursting?

Same result I suppose.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:25 | 219198 Yophat
Yophat's picture

Filled the strategic reserve (largest in the world) to the brim on Dec more buying.  Plenty of tankers sitting heavy in the ocean.  Refineries down to 80's levels due to demand collapse....all that despite the Saudi's killing a 1/3 of their production (4 million b/d).

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:12 | 219171 Bear
Bear's picture

Futures at -3.3% ... why the difference?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 14:59 | 219359 shargash
shargash's picture

USO will always underperform when oil is in contango. Look at a 2 or 3 year chart of USO vs WTI. I bought a bunch of USO in 2007 when oil was around $70/bbl. I paid $62 for the USO. Oil is essentially unchanged since then, but USO is down almost 50%.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:51 | 219132 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What does a double dip mean? What will that look like? Negative GDP qtrs? 12% unempoyment? What do you think?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:27 | 219420 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

It looks like this: W  :)

Negative GDP? Oh yes, several quarters perhaps four, but they will fudge the data so that we get 0.5% growth at some point at the bottom to keep this mess out of the history books.

12% Unemployment? At least. 18% in California and Michigan, far worse in individual cities in those states. And don't forget State and muni defaults from all sides. Predict general social unrest by H2 2011, though we might even be in a real recovery by then. By then, the landscape of the country will be unrecognizable from where we stand now.

All this is just my estimate from trajectory. I have nothing.


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