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Cheerleading By The Media
From The Daily Capitalist
I am tired of the cheerleading by the mainstream press where they see every positive sign as a sure sign of recovery and every negative sign as "unexpected." Every article I read on new data from the Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg is the same--with mind numbing regularity. Worse is that they always find some economist to give them a positive quote to the effect that we are "turning the corner" or "the recovery is self-sustaining."
Here are some examples from recent news. These aren't cherry-picked:
Initial jobless claims rose by 18,000 for the latest reporting week of April 3, up to 460,000.
WSJ: " jobless benefits rose unexpectedly last week."
Bloomberg: "More Americans unexpectedly filed claims for jobless benefits ..." They like to get someone who is bucking the report to make us feel better and it's either Home Depot or Caterpillar: "Home Depot Inc., the largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, is adding store jobs for the first time in four years as it expects a rebound in sales, Chief Executive Officer Frank Blake said."
More on the unemployment situation later.
A lot of retailers reported good sales in March (Saks + 12.7%; Gap + 11%; TJ Maxx + 12%; Target + 10.3%; Macy's + 10.8%; Nordstrom + 16.8%; Kohl's + 22.5%). This is good stuff.
WSJ: "Shoppers opened their wallets even wider than expected in March." Here is their rosy economist: "'It's a blow-out month, the biggest monthly increase we've seen since we began tracking monthly retail sales in 2000,' said Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics."
Bloomberg: "Gap, Saks Lead Largest Monthly Sales Gain in a Decade."
OK, this is pretty fair reporting. But it's not a blow-out. Look at this one-year time frame chart which shows PCE, personal savings, transfer receipts (payments from the government), and disposable personal income:
Looks pretty flat to me. While the transfer payment numbers aren't as current, you should know that they account for 20% of personal income.
Job Openings in US decrease to 2.72 million in February (- 4.6%). They fell for the first time in three months. There are more than 5 people vying for every opening, up from about 1.8 when the recession began in December 2007.
WSJ: They didn't even report this.
Bloomberg: I have to admit they didn't gild the lilly here. But they again mention again that Home Depot is hiring "for the first time in four years."
One in five US jobless--20%--are unemployed after a year according to a new Pew study.
WSJ: Again they missed this story.
Bloomberg: Kudos. They reported this fairly because it was Pew's data. They did mention that 162,000 new jobs were added in March.
162,000 jobs added in March. Of those, 48,000 were government workers, many related to the U.S. Census. These aren't real "economic" jobs. See my article: "Unemplyment Remains Unchanged in March."
WSJ: "created jobs at the fastest pace in three years." Their headline was: "Employers Added Most Jobs in Three Years in March." They noted that YoY that employment down another 1.8% and unemployment rate unchanged at 9.7%. Toward the end they mentioned that the broadest measure of unemploment (U-6, Marginally Attached Workers) was up from 16.8% to 16.9%. And at the very end they note that average hourly earnings (wages) for workers declined 0.1%.
Bloomberg: Pretty much the same. Instead of Home Depot adding jobs, this time they used another favorite, Caterpillar as an example. Funny, they forgot to mention that wage earnings declined, again. Both articles quote economists who think things are getting better.
Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses (services) rose to 55.4 from 53 in the prior month. This is another good sign, especially if looked at in isolation.
WSJ: "'It looks like the recovery is definitely here in the service sector,' said Adam York, an economist with Wells Fargo Securities."
Bloomberg: "higher than anticipated." “'The recovery is looking increasingly self-sustaining,' said James O’Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global Ltd."
Private-sector jobs in the U.S. dropped by 23,000 this month. This ADP report was at odds with the BLS numbers which showed employment gains.
WSJ: "The news rattled investors and economists who had expected March would show a gain in payrolls." Economist Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers said the ADP report didn't include any weather rebound or census hiring and that the numbers were reasonable.
Bloomberg: "Companies in the U.S. unexpectedly cut payrolls." They also blamed it on the weather and quoted Mr. Prakken as well. They again cited Caterpillar as a company that is hiring.
Personal spending (PCE) increased by 0.3% in February, but personal income was flat and savings were lower. PCE is really weak overall. No one connected the dots that said consumers had to resort to savings to make purchases. See my article: "Consumers Draw Down Savings For Personal Consumption." PCE is really weak overall.
WSJ: They reported the facts. They didn't make a note of the connection between a rise in PCE and a decline in savings.
Bloomberg: "Consumer spending in the U.S. rose in February for a fifth consecutive month." “'Considering the circumstances, this is a fine performance with the job market still not strong,'” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York." They noted that savings declined as a result of spending and declining wage earnings.
Oh really?
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Everybody should check out the documentary "Orwell rolls in his grave". Its about how the media is controlled and chooses to report on what they want. Excellent and very insightful.
One of the quotes from a nazi and it applies to what we have today"Ostensible diversity that conceals a uniformity".
"Cheerleading" <---> " Journalism"
I fear that there is a mistaking of cluelessness and lack of comprehension as an intent to deceive. The media today including sadly, many of the Wall Street Journal writers, have little training in finance and economics and even less understanding of these topics. This makes them easy "marks" for spin doctors - plus the postive feedback they get in response to their "cheerleading" stories only encourages this bizarre behavior. Sad to say, journalism today doesn't attract very many people of competence.
Whatever do you mean by cheerleading? Just because we manipulate the markets and feed the media the proper spin doesn't mean the economy isn't perking up.
Objective journalism is a thing of the past. When I see the words: probably, looks like, seems to be, better than expected,green shoots, appears to be, feels like, less worse than expected etc. I no longer bother reading the story because it is based on conjecture, not fact. What is going on in the press is incredible. When I took journalism in college, no one would have dared write a story that was based on opinion or an assessment. We reported the facts and the reader could judge for him/her self. What is happening in the press is one of the biggest reasons we all need to be worried!
Retail sales taxes are the only way to track retail sales. When a retailer's sales go up because 3 of his competitors are out of business, does that mean that retail sales have increased. I think not. In my area, retail vacancies are on every block. Those who have survived may have increased sales but that does not mean that over all sales have gone up.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100409/D9EVQFF81.html
The consensus want optimism and good news, so Bloomberg et al will provide that in order to boost subscriptions.
Optimisim and pessimism really have no place in this debate. If you throw a ball, you see the path of the ball as it arcs through the air, and by seeing this movement, you can make a prediction on where the balls path will be. To predict that the ball will arc down and return to the earth is not pessimism, it's common sense.
Oddland at officedepot is a crook !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! nuff said !!!!!!!!!!!
In my mind there is only one retailer with any correlation to US economy: Office Depot. They also have a CEO who seems to tell it like it is. I doubt you'll be seeing him on CNBC very often, he is way too "truthy". They announce on April 27th, that to me will be the tell as to where we are in the "recovery".
If OD sales are up, then entrepreneurs are back, that tells us where we are at.
Of course we could be in the throes of a jobless, small-businessless recovery, I'll have to check in with Steve Liesman on that.
Hey Econophile,
Great post as usual. I really enjoy and appreciate your writing. Of course, you are preaching to the choir here but I do read everything with a criticall eye.
Keep up the good work!
Great article. I used to watch Kudlow but now when I hear him I want to puke. Its just main steam b.s. the wall street journal is treated like its different by people on the right but its not. Its main stream.
Great article. I used to watch Kudlow but now when I hear him I want to puke. Its just main steam b.s. the wall street journal is treated like its different by people on the right but its not. Its main stream.
I agree; there is some cause for optimism as more are catching on. Futhermore, I think the Tea Parties are a large piece of that (i.e., in terms of evidence of this trend). Unfortunately, and as HEHEHE notes, it seems to take a widening chasm between what some want us to believe and/or feel and reality (and not of the good kind). We shall see, and as always, hope for the best and plan for the worst (which, unfortunately, seems not to far away from what is unfolding).
Economic stats are geared to paint either a bullish or less bearish reality. The purveyors of them know that it is the headline that is reported on the date of the release that is important. They can always go back and revise the numbers downward the next month and know that little if any mention of the revision will be made in the media. It's a classic case of spin and an attempt to control/direct investor/public mood. The problem for the gubmint/Wall Street is that things are so sh*tty the more they spin and the higher the market goes the more out of touch with reality they seem. It's only self reinforcing if a recovery in comsumer spending comes relatively quickly. Don't count on that happening given current debt burdens and job loss fears. The more disconnected TPTB become the more likelihood things can get really ugly in this country really quick.
Ned Zeppelin & doggis:
The classic case is when, for example, on Bloomberg on the same day two headlines conflict (sometimes completely conflict), yet both are heralded as evidence of something that is claimed to be economically positive. I taught a class on international finance where I would explain the 'efficient market hypotheis/theory' take on the information transmission to pricing, then provide two same day headlines (or one would be one day apart from the first) about the USD and watch confussion reign. For example, one would say that the dollar strengthened because the trade deficit decreased, then, at the latest the next day, the other headline would read that the dollar weakened because the trade deficit decreased. Yep, the reason why so many spend so much time and effort on propaganda is because it works. The reason why it works can be summed up by that Lincoln quote: "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time." Anyway, what matters is that you can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time, and many of those you can fool some or most of the time invest their own money and/or manage other peoples' money.
Although not a direct currency example, here is a related example currently on Bloomberg: "Retail Sales, Confidence Probably Climbed in Sign of Lasting U.S. Recovery", but when you click on that headline it transforms to: "Retail Sales Probably Increased in March". It begins with: "Sales and confidence probably climbed, manufacturing accelerated and home construction rebounded, making a lasting U.S. expansion more likely, economists said before reports this week. ..." Therefore, the headline goes from "lasting U.S. recovery" to "sales and confidence probably" increased/"climbed" to a partial explanation that 'economists' think it is the case, therefore no further analysis is possible and all must be well (of course I exagerate, but not by too much). No wonder the Econophiles of the world are irritated. A person would have to think about the story and think somewhat critically about it not to fall for the first headline. How many people actually do that? Unfortunately for market efficiency, probably not too many; but recently I'd say more than a few years ago.
"but recently I'd say more than a few years ago."
In this at least there is cause for optimism. Since Lehman more people are paying attention. I am included in that number, and the continued skepticism in our national mood demonstrates that the propaganda machine is having a far more difficult time than usual overcoming the current wave of "paying attention".
I posted a version of this on another site, but what the heck, I'll repeat it here because it makes a point that some have mentioned.
Soon to be seen on late night TV, between the "Girls Gone Wild" commercials...
"Are you one of the 70% of American homeowners still paying that nasty mortgage and all those intrusive and abusive property taxes? Wouldn't you like to join the elite group of Americans who have stopped all unnecessary debt service and are living the good life again? Wouldn't you like to be dining out four nights a week at Olive Garden and getting that new 52" LED HDTV that you deserve?"
"Well, you can do all this and more! Mortgage service is so 2008. The Feds have made living free the New American Dream! You see, the bankers who wrote your note, then sold it to some chump in Asia or to the fools Lloyd Blankfein mockingly calls "sophisticated investors", don't really care if you pay or not. They're either idiots who deserve what hit them, or they're rolling in dough from more types of bailout money than you can imagine. Even the accounting rules got changed so that they can pretend you are paying---and reward themselves with fat bonuses---whether or not you ever pay them another dime. And the last thing any of them want is for you to leave your home and force somebody to put it on the market. They WANT you to stay home, in your home, absolutely free if that is what best suits your lifestyle and budget. Yes, America is a Great Country, and it’s your turn to get your piece of the dream."
“What are you paying now? $1000? $2000? Even $3000 per month? Thanks to Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner and Congress, you no longer have to pay. Not one cent. Why waste the money on a frivalous expense like a mortgage when you could be using your hard earned cash to live high the way you know you should be living?"
"So stop paying. Go get that TV right now! Get one for the kids, too. Or take the wife and kids to dinner any night you want. Heck, you can even take the cash and buy the equity of the very bank you and millions of others are stiffing...and you'll still make money because everyone’s in on the game!"
"YOU NEVER HAVE TO MAKE A SINGLE MORTGAGE PAYMENT AGAIN. Nobody cares anymore, why should you? Don't be the last fool. Deadbeat is the new path to prosperity"
“Come on, start living again! Join the recovery that's sweeping the nation!”
"Call 1-800-STIFFEM for your free kit on how to live rent free forever."
its easier than that, its called Ch 7 Bankruptcy. Bye Bye mortgage. Bye Bye debt. More and more people will be taking this action as things drag on.
Propaganda is a form of communication that is aimed at influencing the attitude of a community toward some cause or position. As opposed to impartially providing information, propaganda in its most basic sense, presents information primarily to influence an audience. Propaganda often presents facts selectively (thus possibly lying by omission) to encourage a particular synthesis, or uses loaded messages to produce an emotional rather than rational response to the information presented. The desired result is a change of the attitude toward the subject in the target audience to further a political agenda
the banking and military oligarchy are masters of this.
For amusement, in the am watch the HLN ticker on the bottom of the screen march by, as this tells the story of the pithy cheerleading tidbits - always, retail sales "soar," but jobless claims "unexpectedly" rise, or "stock market down on Greek debt woes" (it always amuses me to hear the MSM's proferred reasons why the equity indices went up or down on a particular day, as if those are the real reasons for the market's activity, when whatever reasons there may be are in fact complex and at best guesswork.)
Since the same words "soar" and "unexpectedly" are used with regularity across all MSM outlets, there must be some sort of root language guide that is shared to describe the economy.
Black Swan Lurking:
Amen.
Labels are sometimes just fine, especially when they fit. I too think we are months to a few years max from that "inflection point" (actually we probably passed it and will only truely know by looking back a decades or two from now; and, of course, by analyzing what is happening and has happened in an honest manner for once).
For me, besides Keynesian related absurdities like the solution to a debt wall is to pile on more debt, it's the progressive/cultural Marxist talking points/silliness that just tires me out, bores me to death, irritates me no end, and finally just flat out pisses me off (e.g., we need to import more uneducated & unskilled people from the third world to make our culture and economy stronger, outsourcing high technology manufacturing to countries that want us gone is overall a good idea - see Krugman Nobel, etc.). Many seem to get the Keynesian silliness, but still can't quit connect it to the socialist/cultural Marxist piece. It is my impression that many think the destruction of the economy and country is purely technical, and by merely flipping a few knobs all will be better again, or just by thinking positively it can all be turned around. In my view we are still working on stage #1 (think alcoholics anonymous, admitting to the problem). As more people are unemployed and/or underemployed you would think we would at least have figured out we need to stop shooting ourselves in our proverbial foot; but then again the experimenters'/Einstein's definition of crazy keeps rearing its ugly head: repeating the same action but expecting a different outcome. Well, that will soon no longer be an option (and we shouldn't have long to wait for that, i.e., in my humble opinion).
"Many seem to get the Keynesian silliness, but still can't quit connect it to the socialist/cultural Marxist piece."
Outstanding point Verum-
A market newsletter writer named Howard Katz says that back in the day, political economics was studied as a whole. Nowadays, the two subjects are teased apart and studied separately, adding to the disconnect...
ZH is only negative in so much it is not a reflection of the current fluffy rah rah Main Stream reporting which reflects no reality that I can see.
If I listened to the MSM I would be spending all my money and pumping money into stocks in the belief all is right with the world and full steam ahead for the future, all is up.
Maybe it seems negative because the reality is negative and the MSM is reporting a different reality.
If ZH didn't challenge me with more a gritty and challenging analysis of data then I wouldn't bother with it.
For the past year all has been "up", by 60%-70%. What exactly has following the rants on ZH accomplished? You can stand outside and complain about people at the party having too much fun, but that won't make for a fun evening. What, you say there will be hangovers? You are certainly right, but only after the party ends.
I am a senior citizen. My interest income is 20% of what I estimated in 2001. I do not play the rigged stock market. I feel as if I am being robbed everyday. I keep cutting back. I dropped the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg Business Week. I did not think they were worth the money.
The fiat system is a giant monopoly game where the central bank ends up with all the houses, hotels, and railroads and the other players, such as savers and sound money people, are continuously sent back to “Start." Did you happen to read the article in the WSJ by Charles Schwab: Low Interest Rates Are Squeezing Seniors. Here’s a quote
“[T]hese unprecedented low rates have now been in place for almost 18 months. As a result, banks have enjoyed virtually free access to money while retirees have been deprived of any meaningful yield on their fixed-income portfolios. For a large segment of our population—people who worked long and hard, who followed the rules by spending less than they earned and putting the remainder away to keep themselves independent in retirement—the ultra-low interest rate is more than a hardship. It’s a potential disaster striking at core American principles of self-reliance, individual responsibility and fairness…
“Many in this age group are being forced to stretch for income one of three ways. One is to take on more risk just as they are progressing through retirement. Another is to go longer in maturity with their fixed income investments, locking them into a situation where inflation will bite further into their principal and purchasing power. And the worst is the slow erosion of principal that is already occurring as people cash out of savings to make up for needed income.
“It’s not just retirees on fixed income we should be concerned about. Let’s not forget that savers of all ages—even the young person opening his first savings account—need some incentive of future reward for saving. Today, there is none…”
Incidentally, this recently from Denninger: Charles Schwab warned that its first quarter profits will fall short as trading fell 14% despite the fact that it lowered fees significantly for its consumer accounts.
Man I love you guys and gals, the ZH community.
My friend asks me the other day, "OMG did ya hear about the latest (insert one of the following: ridiculously sanguine econ report/gov't fraud/bankster jacking/legal maneouvre to control the masses and strip away freedoms here)?"
My calm reaction - "NOTHING shockes ME anymore. What WILL be fascinating is to see when the herd of sheeple finally GET IT all, WAAAAY too fucking late."
I can close my eyes and envision grown adults crying hysterically, shitting themselves right down their legs, as they stand bleating uselessly outside their bank's front doors, and in vain, during the next bank holiday...
Again, I love you guys and gals. You HAVE to keep preachin to yer own circle of influence.
We are in an idealogical war. The continuous stream of ridiculous reports on the talking pictures box is simply the latest shots being taken at dumbass Main Street.
America's been eviscerated from within, all our freedoms stealthily taken, with nary a single shot fired from any gun.
So fight fire with fire.
Don't let the Keynesian-schmucks and Progressive-fucks win. Like stupid-fuck Paul Krugman. Loco Keynesian sonovabitch.
Keep preaching the Austrian POVs and the Libertarian POVs (I hate fucking labels, but...).
Cause when the shit hits the fan, that's our golden opportunity for the cold, harsh, sobering re-education of all our stupid idiot sheeple family, friends, and neighbors.
Paraphrasing one of Martin Armstrong's articles last year, he once said that basically we're at a massive societal inflection point. We either go straight down PAST hell from here, or we rebound and blow the fuck up in a positive way, leaving behind all this fraud and total shit.
Stay ready, and keep preachin Brothers&Sisters...
BSL
Sorry for the off topic rant.
Shoulda posted this under GeorgeWashington's Are Blogs Useful posting last week or so...
The point you make about ideological war is valid, but let's be realistic about the tactical situation. Right or wrong, elements in government, finance, big business, and the media have decided their views are correct, and they are going to do what is necessary to "win". Populist types posting on ZH and similar forums love to point out the glaring falacies in official statistics and the mathematical certitude of a bad outcome. These people are labeled by the media as "doomers", and they are marginalized or ignored.
What good does it do if we march down the street with our truth banners, carrying torches and pitchforks, when Ben Bernanke can push a button and drop a (financial) W88 on our heads anytime he pleases? The old adage "don't fight the Fed" still applies -- in spades.
"These people are labeled by the media as "doomers", and they are marginalized or ignored."
I agree, this is what makes ours an uphill battle in a grim situation.
"What good does it do if we march down the street with our truth banners, carrying torches and pitchforks..."
You don't march down the street rank and file like the Redcoats.
You "fight" like hit-and-run guerilla forces, sneaking up from behind, using "terrorist tactics" to spread the truth about the Federal Reserve, et al. Talk to any of your childhood friends who are newly unemployed about the truth - they're likely to at least listen, even if they're not ready to agree. "Hey, didja know the Federal Reserve isn't a government agency..."
Grassroots movement style.
At SOME point, when the sheeple are being financially slaughtered, that will likely be a moment where "American Idol" gets turned off, and ignorant people finally ask "What's going on?" for the first time in their lives.
That's the inflection point I mentioned earlier. When people are destitute and desperate, TPTB attempt to sell them on socialism, nationalism and similar rubbish, promising a better life (as in Nazi Germany). (Down past hell.)
It's our job to counter that and sell them on the truth and restore freedom instead.
(positive change for society)
We have a chance to wake society up at large here, albeit it may come after the financial mushroom cloud.
Kinda like finding religion as they're on their deathbed.
"You "fight" like hit-and-run guerilla forces, sneaking up from behind, using "terrorist tactics" to spread the truth about the Federal Reserve, et al."
The mismatch in power is so great, the only way dissenting voices will be noticed is with mass, public protests. The "hit and run" stuff will be labeled and punished as domestic terrorism, and in case you didn't notice, we now have a nice new prison/holding facility for terrorists up in Illinois. They can hold people there pretty much indefinitely if they get tagged as terrorists.
As long as the power structure can hang together and pay (or pretend to pay) its bills, the rest of us are just along for the ride.
Chindit13:
I like it; but I just keep getting the image that one of the cheerleaders (let's call her Becky, or Candy) will smile and say something like: "Wow, I really like that guy, and you guys thought he was some 'doom and gloomer'. I want him on next month to speak to Liesman, blah, blah, blah ..." Then next week comes, someone studies the tapes, and then explains to Becky that she probably shouldn't have him on next month, and that her dresses are way too loose fitting for someone of her intellectual caliber ... (you get the picture). At least for me, the thought is great, and the scrambling around would be amusing. Well, it's worth a try anyway.
Although, at times, it seems to me that Mark Faber does try at least of version of this technique. My favorite moments are when he flatly states something like Benanke is just an inflation whore who has no clue and monetary policy has become a joke, then smiles as the interviewer struggles to take a breath and declare that he can't be serious and it's time to cut to commercial, just before reminding the audience that everyone should take those comments with a grain of salt becuase he is, as everyone knows, just a Swiss crackpot known for his gloom and doom report. Hence, by direct and indirect implication, he is biased, while you dear viewer should know better than to believe this entertaining liar, nothing to see here, and don't forget to see Mad Money at 3 (and once again another 308 168 grain hollow point boat-tail bullet of honesty avoided again).
As vql above states, the media goes out of its way to label anyone who points out a fallacy in the data as a "doom and gloomer". There is an obvious, and disarming way around this.
Next time a "doom and gloomer" wants to point out reality, just couch the statements in MSMcheerleader terms, with enthusiasm turned up full. For example:
"Yes, Michelle, those retail numbers really were great. You know, if we can just get more and more homeowners to stop paying their mortgages, and free up all that cash that the banks don't need anyway since we cleverly changed the accounting rules, we could get some gangbuster numbers in Q3!"
or:
"Becky, I think we see a very positive pattern emerging here in same store sales and I am very optimistic. If only a few more retailers would go bust, and we can get the survivors to shut down even more of their locations, I have no doubt we can get a good ramp in same store activity all the way into 2011."
Many companies layoff people then hire them back when their inventories are depleted, then repeat the process. So it appears that they are hiring again and ramping production. Also many workers are in fear of losing their jobs so they are getting more production from less manhours.
The food and consumables are being packaged the same but with less content as to trick the consumer.
These are some of the tricks they are using.
Pondmaster:
It does indeed remind me of the heyday of the political commissar, but applied to that great capitalist satan of yesteryear the U.S. of A. Until the next five year plan Comrade, may our cultural Marxist in chief and all that he pronounces as good and correct, be with you; and das vadanya free market.
Wash Rinse Repeat - Comrades (MSM- Bloomberg , WSJ) .Here are the companies you may name (Caterpillar , Home Depot )in your articles . Remember , you are not permitted to speak on any corporations laying off workers , nor those showing losses Mo. over Mo. Plug the census jobs without stating they are census jobs . Wash Rinse Repeat . Thank you for serving the "party ".
Econophile:
Yes, I fully agree that we are all subject to comfirmation bias. That noted, currently, since the cheerleading seems to my biased brain to be more unusually positively biased relative to facts that are more difficult to bias (e.g., something closer to real unemployment & underemployment), and I too wonder if those trying so hard to convince us of sunshine during what seems to me to be a storm really deep down believe what they preach. My guess, as you intimate, it that deep down most don't (i.e., excluding those whom have drunken the Keynesian and/or socialist Kool-aid as it were). As indirect evidence of this, I would emphasize cases where a MSM cheerleader makes the standard ad hominem attack by calling someone who might emphasize, for example, that even ignoring the positive bump from the nonpayemnt of mortgage effect (I think that was a great insight by the way) real retail sales are flat as a 'doom and gloomer', etc., etc. For me, and I don't have hard numbers, but it seems that the MSM business press has become at times as shrill as what I would call the socialist MSM political press at personal attacks on people that contradict the propaganda (e.g., Peter Schiff has been treated fairly well in the blogosphere but generally ravaged by the MSM, i.e., outside of Fox News).
Futhermore, on a purely personal level I am often appalled at the continuing cold shoulder, at least by my own view, of the MSM business press's relative shoddy treatment of the Austrian school. I guess their bias is so strong, and perceived incentives are so strong as well, that most find it almost impossible to do anything but shovel and reshovel the same false propaganda; and yes, I agree that many really don't have a basic understanding of what they are reporting on, so a large piece of this is just repeating what they are told to repeat (the evidence on this is easier to observe in that they tend to commonly make basic factual errors in reporting, for example, reporting U-3 as the precise figure representing unemployment).
Wow, really, really great comments.
The hardest thing to do is read data without a confirmation bias. Everyone does it, including me. Although I try to fight it. For example, some things are turning positive and that must be recognized despite my negative outlook for H2. But then I'm of the Austrian persuasion, not a Keynesian. I look at data differently than do Keynesians or Monetarists.
What bothers me is the way the MSM sees it as their duty to spur the economy along by proclaiming the good news and downplay the bad. I would say for the most part these reporters don't really understand economics or they fully believe what the Keynesians in D.C. are feeding them.
On retail sales, I thought B9K9's comment was right on ... to an extent. Mike Panzer ran an article on this recently (Financial Armageddon) that said the nonpayment of mortgage effect could be $3.9 billion. It's a guess whatever number you come up with. Also, Rosie believes this theory too. So it definitely has an impact. But I still believe that the decline in savings still has the most to do with it as people draw down savings to spend, because they have to. Also, there is still a lot of fiscal stimulus coursing through the economy. And that will run out. I just don't think the retail spurt will be sustained.
Econophile,
Here is an AP story that is such a perfect example of the type of cheerleading you talk about.
It starts with the headline:"The Dow's up but trades are scarce, worrying bulls"...contains many negative observations from market participants...and then (oddly enough) seems to arrive at the following conclusion: "Then there's the argument that maybe volume isn't really all it's cracked up to be."... Because just like all Hollywood blockbusters....you gotta have a happy ending if you're a MSM publication.
Here's the article:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jGZrD4YYZO0chidhXppVMn...
Yep. I check the markets app on my iPhone every morning upon awaking and there's this little news feed under the market data. If the market is going up: "Investors find promise in [add any story, say Greek debt]. If it's going down, it's: "Investors worried about Greek debt."
The basic problem is that the blue pill takers and Kool-aid drinkers choose to weight all their information either in inverse proportion to its economic significance or just plain ignore the bad information. It's psychological, and helps the kids get to sleep at night; and, furthermore, a stock market powered by Keynesian fiscal spending and neo-Keynesian monetary stimulus/crime syndicate money doesn't predict the real economic future of the country.
For example, and as mentioned by one person, tax receipts (i.e., after adjusting for true price inflation) are a number that are hard to fake or get a false signal because of incentives. The state wants as much as it can get, add to that the reality that sales tax rates have gone up generally over the last two years, and it is likely to reflect the true state of real retail sales (e.g., and as someone mentioned, Shadow Stats has already noted that nominal import prices have been generally going up recently which will translate into nominal increases not real increases). In short, over the whole economy sales tax receipts roughly adjusted for the price inflation of those sales (i.e., real sales) would siggest sales are flat to down, not up 15% or whatever is being pushed out there by the headless, zombie cheerleaders.
Another reality check number is unemployment (i.e., a consistent measure of it that truely accounts for it), for a 'jobless recovery' is an oxymoron. The endlessly and breathlessly reported BLS U-3 number is neither consistent (i.e., historically it was changed in a way during the Clinton Administration that it no longer measures the same thing as it measured before the changes) nor does it even measure what a sane, thinking person would call unemployment (e.g., because the 'long-term unemployed' are dropped from the equation you can now theroetically get nobody employed yet a 0% unemployment rate; yes, Orwell was a piker compared to our own government 'statisticians'). If there ever was a 'blue pill' number, it's the U-3 number. In short, U-3 is a very silly and misleading number, and don't even get me going about the 'birth-death model'. A modified U-6 number would represent a much better number (i.e., one that really accounts for, you know, unemployed and underemployed people). Shadow Stats and at least one survey are now printing over 20%, and that is the 'red pill' number, or at least better reflects reality. Therefore, if you really want a real recovery get the f_ing real unemployment and underemployment down significantly from where it is today. No, without true unemployment recovering there is no 'recovery', when it actually does you can wake me from my real sleep.
that's a good post V Q L
America is the land of sugar coated public domain.
Ignore the media, they are funny silly people. A lot of the data is useful from the Treasury, BLS and FED (Flow of funds), but still very incomplete. However, if you dig into the reasons why, much of it is unambitious bureaucrat laziness, and not Lucifer reborn.
I will tell you the danger of this media rosy talk. Is that the politicians seem to digest it with great zeal, and then act on their happy feelings by doing something stupid like not extending Unemployment Insurance benefits so people are not cut off. Which happend last week.
I am fairly positive that congress will act retroactively like before, but you have to wonder how they can dismiss the needs of the unemployed with such ease. Just incredible. The contempt for their own constituentcy is unforgivable.
If the FED does not act soon. We will start to see the liquidity slack melt away like tears in rain. The economic gears on starting ether will grind to a deflationary halt, as the Bernanke malinvestment turns to sand.
What will Generous Ben do? QE of course, with its corresponding increase in 10Y T rates, and negative impact on flow of funds.
Mark Beck
P.S.
Why did the FED really have an emergency meeting? Surely, not to keep rates unchanged.
Has the Congress passed any funding bills in the last three months after their ballyhooed "all new spending must have an offset" Remember the screaming my yhe LSM when Sen Bunting called the democrats bluff.
Again, these reporters are no longer reporters but actual propandist's for the liberal - socialist-communist democratic party.
The phrase reporter for over 90% of the allegedly reporting should have their mouth washed out with real lye soap.
I noted the little media wave of "reasons not to extend unemployment benefits too," sort of a "trillions for bankers, not another penny for you lazy ass workers out there who need to start their own California migration like the Dustbowl Depression days."
Same with the FED meeting - what was really discussed?
We're close to some new inflection point in this mess - Round II.
"Today's forecast: A jobless recovery. Continued joblessness throughout most of the day, with some widely-scattered jobs towards evening...followed by increasing joblessness by morning. The jobless rate is expected to continue to change on and off for a long long time."
Hippy Dippy Economist
Meditate on this:
Perception is greater than reality
If you control perception, you control reality
Not true for me, Im wired differently, Im short banks and Spy,
I think therefore Im wrong.
Media cheerleading is taking on a whole new meaning in Australia. When you thumb through the dailys and the MSM news sites, it's hard to find any sort of objective analysis of events let alone criticism - the kool aid has been well and truly taken, it's all boom time again! It's getting that bad that the one source of balanced information, The Australian Financial Review is now nothing more than a cheer squad for the resurgent US and global economies. Thankfully the Sydney Morning Herald runs the occasional counter argument on events and warnings on Australia's property bubble but even more accolades need to go to the blog sphere.
They seem to count government jobs as real jobs.
If you are a Keynesian, you think that more spending and more money can endlessly create real, sustainable demand.
They'd probably be happy if EVERYONE had a government "job"...
If you were selling trillions of dollars in rollover and new debt, with everyone knowing you will have to debase your currency to be able to EVER even make a dent in paying it back, wouldn't you collude with the Media Cartel to lipstick this pig? Thus keeping the ponzi running as long as possible? Is this a negative outlook? Did I take the Red Pill this morning by mistake? Or are these fucking central bankers who worship the fucking pervert Keynes getting little fucking central banking boners figuring how divert billions more our children's children's future productivity back into there coffers? I'm sorry, did I say that outloud? I'm really happy the markets up ;)