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CHF - What’s next?

Bruce Krasting's picture




 
Read the news today and look at the tape and you would have to conclude
that all of the problems in the EU have vanished. Germany’s economy is
booming, the Chinese are funding Portugal, Spain sells bonds at a cheap
price. What’s not to like?

The currency markets have reacted to all the good news. All the short EURUSD positions got blown up (again) The main bell weather for this is the EURCHF cross. It has backed up three big figures since the start of the year.

I write a fair bit about the CHF. I think it does play a pivotal role in
the broader markets. But I rarely trade it. I have seen time and again
that this pair (EURCHF) hurts players. The problem is that it is a
sucker trade. It is too easy to get short at the wrong time and just as
easy to get long and be wrong.

When the news flow turns blackest for the EU you sit back and think, “It’s gotta be right to be short!” But then the news flow turns (one bond auction? give me a break) and it’s all bid no offer.

This too will pass. Europe’s problems are not over. Not by a long shot.
There is no “soft landing” scenario. The news will turn negative again
in the not too distant future. A month or two at best. With the bearish
view still intact one would have to conclude that the EURCHF will be a
good short again at some point and new lows are in front of us. Should
(when) this occur the Swiss will have a big policy problem on their
hands. They survived quite well in 2010, even though the key Euro cross
fell by 20%. It’s not possible that we could see an additional
significant gain for the Franc in 11’ without it having a major
deflationary impact.

With this kind of thinking in mind the influential Neu Zuricher Zeitung came out with a list
of things that might be considered to slow down the inevitable rise of
the Franc. I thought the list was interesting, so were the conclusions:
(excuse my poor German translation)

(I) Peg to the euro

Conclusion: This is a no-go!

By
pegging the franc to the euro, it would force the SNB to be completely
“addicted” to constant intervention. It would require huge amounts of
money to be printed.


(II) Adopt the Euro as the national currency

Conclusion: This is a definite no-go

In the
face of undeniable economic differences (from the lower unemployment
rate to lower level of debt) Switzerland would not fit in the euro area.

(III) Defending a price band

Conclusion: This won’t work either. The SNB tried it in 2010 and it cost them CHF 30b.

The determination of the SNB in defense of the band would be tested repeatedly until it gives up.

(IV) Negative interest rates

Conclusion: This is a dead end. Tried in the past, didn’t work then. It won’t work now:

It was an act of desperation (when it was implemented in the past), and it would be again today. It would discourage foreign investors, of whom Switzerland is dependent on the long term.

(V) Introduction of the gold standard

Conclusion: Sorry gold bugs, this doesn’t work either:

There
is not enough gold in the world to keep pace with world economic growth.
A renewed commitment of the currencies of gold would therefore lead to
deflation. We no longer live in the twenties or thirties of the last century.

(VI) Taxes and compulsory deposits

Conclusion: Absolutely not! This is the Brazil approach to taxing inward investments. No solution here:

Switzerland
lives off the money is invested with us. Switzerland would be
catapulted from the circle of reliable financial centers. Even a small tax would be a disastrous signal.

(VII) Regulate foreign exchange market

Conclusion: Not a chance that his would work:

The attempt to develop with a restrictions of trading positions would be doomed to failure.

(VIII) Pray

There is no VIII. There are no other options available for
consideration. The seven discussed above clearly don’t work.

It’s awful hard to get long EURCHF looking at the list.

 

 

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Thu, 01/13/2011 - 22:01 | 875116 Itsalie
Itsalie's picture

There is a big difference between Swiss franc pegging to gold and the whole world pegging to gold, the latter could possibly be deflationary and might require global gold production to be in-line with global growth. But just a single country or a handful of countries pegging to gold does not require gold production to be in-line with global growth. And frankly, global growh of 4% or 5% is more likely the result of excessive debt. It is just not sustainable, as we have seen the last decade with each crisis.

 

And what is the problem with deflation anyway (apart from preventing chopper ben and citizens of the US from deliberately inflating (aka cheating) their way out of their liabilities)? Japan's real per capita income grew 0.7% pa the last decade despite going in and out of deflation, that is exactly the same as the US. And in the last 3 years, citizens of uncle sam had 0% per capita income growth (probably negative), whereas Japan saw 0.3% real per capita income growth.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 20:20 | 874880 tom
tom's picture

Deflation bugaboo stories are probably the main reason why even the Swiss wouldn't consider the gold standard.

But there is actually a very serious drawback of the gold standard. When multiple countries adopt it their exchange rates with each other become inflexible. Because each gold-standard country's currency is pegged to gold at some ratio, the ratios of all gold-standard countries' currencies to each other are fixed. As these economies grow at different paces, there is no mechanism to revalue. The result can be a run on the weakest gold-standard country's currency, as people exchange its currency for gold at the fixed rate and take the gold out of the country.

An extreme version of this happened during the depression, exacerbated by some countries setting their currency values relative to gold too high when they restored the gold standard after the first world war.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 19:42 | 874763 Jasper M
Jasper M's picture

I must take slight exception to the otherwise very thorough list:

# VI is actually already in place. There are some pretty substantial withholding requirements for foreign depositors – they are just fairly easy to get around. Easy enought to tweak that. Boil the frog slowly. 

But # V is the big error. Since gold is readily devisable, there is no need for "all the gold in the world" to "keep up with world economic growth". Yes, prices would drop over time, with growth . . . and that's OKay ! It only hurts those living in constant debt (for whom I have no sympathy). 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 17:22 | 874333 buzzard beak
buzzard beak's picture

I'm no bond or FX guy but selling 3 billion euros of 5 year debt at 4.5% does not sound like any great achievement, even if the bidders were natural.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:53 | 874189 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

Play commodities and think of the EURCHF as the sound a steam kettle makes...

The EURCHF will tell you the stress in the international banking system.  That in turn will signal a run to non-fiat holdings.  If the EURCHF starts to deflate back to old school numbers, the trouble has past and be prepared for a drop in commodities as bond-types will move money out of commodities and back into bonds.

Wait for the tweet that all is clear.  Until that time, think commodities.  Not only physical metals et al but also communication infrastructure equity that is crucial to the internet/wireless telecom space.

Or you can play the whipsaw of EURCHF.  Tell us how that plays out.

Long term, expect China to soil the EU concept and expect Germany et al to find the best time to step away from the punchbowl.  Expect Switzerland to be in communication with Germany to determine what fiat currency is best to replace the Euro. 

I suspect China will use a Portugese port rather than a Greek port.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:19 | 874008 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

deleted 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:18 | 874007 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Option  IX - The Irish Sanction

Destroy all debt withen the Irish banking glacier and see what happens...............................

www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuA51YP2jsk

 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 15:57 | 873883 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

The solution is simple, but it would expose the SNB for the idiots that they are so it won't happen.

The SNB should start agressively buying gold with printed CHF and other FC reserves.  That way they would drive the franc down,  increase the proportion of gold in their reserves,  and build up reserves of real money.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 15:09 | 873682 Voodoo-economist
Voodoo-economist's picture

geez, let a Swiss write about the Swiss... they could just print money...rings a bell? Youd better be short CHF...

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 14:46 | 873619 woolly mammoth
woolly mammoth's picture

When there was no good options my grandad use to say " Shoot and holler shit". Must be one of those times.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 13:55 | 873469 proLiberty
proLiberty's picture

"There is not enough gold in the world to keep pace with world economic growth. A renewed commitment of the currencies of gold would therefore lead to deflation. We no longer live in the twenties or thirties of the last century.

 

This denies the very basic laws of economics that otherwise are quickly defended.  The problem is that the fish cannot see the 'liquidity' they are swimming in.  No matter how much or gold there is, there can never be a shortage of it!  What we are seeing is the mental gyrations necessary to keep the value of the medium of exchange constant.  I should also recall that this is one of the two primary tasks of the US Federal Reserve and they have done a bangup failure of a job at it, for in 1913, gold was $20/oz and today it is just short of $1,400/oz, a decline in value by a factor of 70x!

The only reason that we think that money should have a constant value (which it clearly cannot have), is because of the vast quantities of long-term debt that governments use in order to create money out of thin air.  And the reaction of big government types to the prospect that their fiat, air-backed, debt instruments might drop in purchasing power is about as violent as Dracula's reaction to a polished cross.  Deflation means the end of their power-grubbing scheme of printing money.  So of course, they hate gold.

No less than Alan Greenspan, in the last two paragraphs of his essay Gold and Economic Freedom warned us of what gold means to big government, and how supporters of big government can only react when the truth becomes plain that their fiat money must die and when gold can return to its rightful place as money:

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

 

from: http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.html

 

When gold returns to be used a money, the level of economic activity divided by the amount of gold above ground implies a price of somewhere between USD 25,000 and 50,000 per ounce depeneding upon whose statistics are used.   At that price, there is enough gold to be used for the world economy.   Worrying about a "shortage" of gold is about as silly as worrying about a shortage of oil.  When the market is free to set the price, supply and demand are always in balance.

 

 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 17:00 | 874216 anonnn
anonnn's picture

Alan Greenspan, as quoted above, teaches false-science [pseudo-science].  By his actions, he cleverly omits a necessary ingredient in the recipe for economic health...

Namely, there must be a working justice system to monitor and regulate unfair dealing [e.g. fraud, lies, lack of transparency, etc]. This is not taught. It is ignored so that clever schemes can defraud and grow without risk of personal penalty.

Greenspan-economics deliberately omits this vital datum.

In that manner, criminals rise to the top of all financial control-points. "Economics" without vigilant and effective justice, is the fraud.

Now look around and observe for yourself what is true.

It is not complicated. The remedy may be.

A suggestion: Prosecute injustice starting at the top levels, at the control-points. It is  myth that starting at lower levels is effective...It cleverly distracts and wastes time and resources...That myth is really an early warning system for the crims to escape.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 15:12 | 873701 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

That is nice and fair.

But it is all about growth. Or expansion. Not about monetizing static volumes.

Want it or want it not, expansion is better supported with a debt scheme, fiat based. 

As to the rest, Spain, Portugal during their golden age, provided counter-examples. Who were States with a deep love for gold.

 

The obsession in the West is to freeze the status quo, therefore the hate on the State as the rise of the West was a success of the State.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 14:00 | 873484 knukles
knukles's picture

Truth

"No matter how much or gold there is, there can never be a shortage of it!  What we are seeing is the mental gyrations necessary to keep the value of the medium of exchange constant."

"When the market is free to set the price, supply and demand are always in balance."

Word

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 15:13 | 873704 Apostate
Apostate's picture

The Swiss might face temporary diplomatic isolation by adopting gold. The culture will shift more as the USA deteriorates.

Prayer is not an option for civilized people. The Swiss could act as a fulcrum in the global balance of power if they so wished. 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:47 | 874161 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Extreme Austrians are such absurd people  - the Swiss are banking gnomes , they do not care for power in the grand game sense , they just want to worship in peace.

 Damien Hirst at Sotheby's: The Golden Calf 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:40 | 873223 Occams Aftershave
Occams Aftershave's picture

Could adopt gold standard.  And when gold stabilizes at $1 billion / oz, commerce, trading, business would continue just fine.  No problem.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:49 | 873256 mouser98
mouser98's picture

+1

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:36 | 873211 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

That Swiss cow looks meaner than a Pamplona bull.

No wonder the Swissy is such a tough currency, and Spain is in the toilet.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:19 | 873152 bkrolik
bkrolik's picture

Bruce,

 Funny analysis you have here..... You described a number of choices, said they are all bad, and concluded we all shoud pray. Pray is not the choice! We all know something will happen - something is always happens! You are a practitioner, so it would be really nice to hear from you what would happen (if there are several possibilities, what are the odds), and what are the outcomes - at least in FX terms.

 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:40 | 873222 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

So who are you? Hedge fund type? FX trader? Interbank trader? Sophisticated investor?

If so, the answer for you is to pick spots to get short the EURCHF cross. But don't just put on a position and close your eyes. You have to take profits when they are given. There ALWAYS a re-entry point.

If, on the other hand you were not a "sophisticated investor" (cash net worth in excess of $500k) I would stay away from this trade altogether. Small guys will get busted up.

 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 18:28 | 874579 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

What ever happened to all the dire news about the Eastern bloc who's ARM's were all tied to the Swiss? The doomsday article below is from May when the Forints was 204.33 per Swiss Franc and it closed at 213.78 today. It's so damn hard to gets facts and so easy to find rhetoric. 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/208667-some-hungarian-mortgages-and-payments-just-jumped-10

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 13:57 | 873470 knukles
knukles's picture

If prayer's not an alternative, Plan B is to cross fingers.
The appropriate option for the Swiss are to quit fucking around, do nothing (See what active intervention did last time, huh?) and just let it go.  It'll all take care of it's own little lonesome self.  

Ceteris paribus, the CHF gonna appreciate because relatively speaking, it ain't as messed up as the alternatives.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 13:43 | 873423 bkrolik
bkrolik's picture

Thanks.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:17 | 873145 Negro Primero
Negro Primero's picture

From UBS Investment Bank
Research.

Policy summit on the strong franc

• The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) has invited
representatives of Swiss industry and trade unions to discuss the
strong franc at a policy summit this Friday.
• While the meeting has been called to facilitate an exchange of ideas
and experiences, we consider it unlikely that any concrete proposals
will result.
• In fact, options to counter currency strength, are limited, and carry
side effects that can have wider consequences for stakeholders in
the economy beyond mere discomfort or unpopularity.

The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) has invited
representatives of Swiss industry (machinery, pharmaceutical, tourism
and banking) and trade unions to discuss the strong franc at a policy
summit this Friday. Deemed a ‘crisis summit’ by the media, the official
invitation however employs milder language, reportedly noting that
‘impact, opportunities and risks’ of the currency strengths should be
discussed. While the meeting has been called to facilitate an exchange of
ideas and experiences, we consider it unlikely that any concrete proposals
will result.
The labor unions and the political left have been vocal advocates for
measures to reverse the strength of the franc, seen to be endangering Swiss
economic health and destroying jobs. Some have even suggested pegging
the franc to the euro, or introducing negative interest rates, as was done in
the 1970/80s. Some trade union representatives have supported a call for a
‘gentlemen’s agreement’ among banks to refrain from speculation against
the franc. Industry leaders, however, have been much more sanguine,
arguing that further state intervention is uncalled for and that there is not
much more to be done.

In fact, options to counter currency strength, discussed in the following,
are limited, and carry side effects that can have wider consequences for
stakeholders in the economy beyond mere discomfort or unpopularity.

• Further FX intervention
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) would be responsible for foreign exchange
(FX) intervention. Due to the SNB's independence we doubt that the policy
summit would result in a direct request that the SNB intervene again in the
FX markets. The SNB does not have an exchange rate target: Its objective is
to maintain price stability, in other words, to prevent inflation and deflation.
The SNB's inflation mandate limits the bank's ability to use foreign curren-
cy purchases as a way to hinder franc appreciation per se. Renewed in-
tervention would become likely only when the SNB anticipates that defla-
tion could arise in Switzerland. This might be the case if, for example, the
Swiss franc appreciated sharply from current levels or if the global econo-
my slowed significantly. This option remains on the table; however, Swiss
inflation would need to decline further from current low levels or leading
domestic economic indicators to deteriorate sharply. Intervention bears also
a political risk for the SNB. The central bank was already accused of having
caused losses to the balance sheet with past interventions. Anyone calling
for further intervention should also be ready to accept more (and hopefully
temporary losses) on the balance sheet of the SNB.

Intervention, however, would not deter investors who see the franc as
the ultimate safe haven asset. To have a lasting effect, interventions must
not be sterilized. (Sterilization refers to the actions taken by the central
bank to withdraw the additional money supply generated through the in-
tervention.) Unsterilized intervention massively increases monetary aggre-
gates and, in the longer run, creates the risk of inflation. Under this option,
Switzerland may find itself reckoning with higher inflation in the long run.

• Dual exchange rate
A dual exchange rate aims to provide a more attractive exchange rate for
the export industries suffering under the strong franc. Various questions
arise here, however. We do not know which industries would potentially be
selected, at which rate the industries should be able to sell their francs, or
who would subsidize these transactions. Further, there are risks that com-
panies would conduct arbitrage between the two exchange rates.
Again, in view of its independence, we doubt that the SNB would like to
implement such a measure. We also doubt that the Swiss taxpayer would
be willing to pay the bill, via the Swiss government. An additional risk is
that a measure conceived as short-term relief for troubled companies would
subsequently become a long-term subsidy.
In the end, we think Swiss exporters will have to adapt to extended periods
of franc strength due to European debt issues. Any subsidy in the form
of a dual exchange rate would cement the existing structure rather than
help companies adapt to change. Nevertheless we can not entirely exclude
the possibility that the government would attempt to aid very troubled
companies in some manner.

• Exchange rate controls/capital controls
The situation in Switzerland bears similarities to what many Emerging Mar-
kets (EM) have been experiencing for some time i.e., heavy capital inflows
pushing up the exchange rate. EM governments and central banks have
reacted by imposing taxes on foreign currency inflows and/or introducing
certain capital controls.

To avoid begging the question of whether Switzerland would choose a
similar course of action – we very much doubt it. Unlike countries such as
Brazil, South Africa or Malaysia, Switzerland has no recent history of capital
controls, and introducing them would be a major departure from long and
dearly held liberal practices.
The Swiss financial sector relies heavily on open capital markets, and any
change to the system would risk causing lasting damage to the sector and
beyond in the name of addressing a problem that is still widely viewed as
temporary. As a result, we strongly believe that there is currently no appetite
even on the political left for exchange rate or capital controls

• EURCHF peg
Trade unions argue that pegging the Swiss franc temporarily to the euro
might help address some of the problems. Here again we see questions.
What is a "fair" exchange rate? How long should the exchange be pegged?
A foreseeable problem is that this measure, an aggressive version of "Fur-
ther FX intervention (see above)," might lead to higher inflation in the long
run.

Alternatively, the SNB could determine a floor and not allow EURCHF to
drop below it, defending the floor through appropriate intervention. This
would imply that the SNB resumes interventions and accepts further growth
of its balance sheet, which implies the risk of running more losses. Also,
pegged exchange rates are often implemented in combination with capital
controls, which we discussed above. The remedy of capital control is not
without pain, as it would hurt other sectors of the Swiss economy - i.e.
financial companies.

• Negative interest rates
Negative interest rates are often mentioned as an alternative policy mea-
sure to counter the franc’s strength. If a sufficient capital surcharge were
imposed on deposits held in Switzerland by non-residents, the yield to for-
eign investors would fall below zero percent. Such surcharges aim to deter
capital inflows by offsetting the capital gains an investor expects to make
through exchange rate appreciation. Switzerland used this approach in the
1970s to discourage foreign investors from holding francs. These invest-
ment restrictions, however, did not reduce the demand for francs. The SNB
thus chose another way of bringing the exchange rate under control, peg-
ging the franc to the German mark in October 1978 by providing unlimited
franc liquidity (indirect FX interventions).
As part of the 2003 revision of the National Bank Act, Article 16i, which jus-
tified the use of negative interest rates, was abolished. The Federal Coun-
cil bulletin to the legislature on the revision of the National Bank Act ar-
gued that measures such as negative interest rates were unsuccessful be-
cause such administrative regulation can be bypassed easily. While financial
transactions that involve banks as counterparties might be affected, trade-
related transactions with non-banks as counterparties are very difficult to
control and would not fall under the regulation. It was also mentioned that
such measures can lead to market distortions and potentially bring high
economic costs due to misallocation and wasted resources.

The above mentioned methods can, however, be reintroduced immediately
under emergency law. In our view, a sudden, massive appreciation of the
franc could justify reintroducing tools that only a few years ago were con-
sidered "anachronistic and ineffective."

Further, trade-related transactions could continue to bypass these mea-
sures, and the Swiss authorities cannot charge a negative interest rate on
francs bought and/or held outside the country. We think that introducing
negative interest rates would in fact lead to a large black market for francs
outside Switzerland, and the SNB would thus end up losing a lot of the
control it still has over the currency.

• Negative implied forward yields
We think the most realistic measure that could be implemented immediate-
ly is to further increase money supply or stop withdrawing liquidity. Tech-
nically, the SNB would then engineer negative implied forward yields.
During the 2008 crisis, USDCHF implied forward yields dropped to a record
of below -200 basis points (bp, a bp is 1/100 of one per cent) as the market
was desperate for dollars. In spring 2010, the implied yield again dropped
to below -150bp as the unsterilized FX interventions flooded the market
with Swiss francs.

In that situation holding long CHF positions became increasingly expensive
and the yield differential was pushed artificially to the normal 150-200 bp..
At the time, the impact on the spot rate was limited since the structural
and speculative demand for Swiss francs was overwhelming. However, in
a more settled environment and with the franc at historic highs, strongly
negative yields beyond the current -50bp could have an impact.

Conclusion
We see several factors that are supportive of the Swiss franc – the historical-
ly low yield differential to main trading partners, the low level of Swiss gov-
ernment debt and the strong Swiss economy – and expect them to continue
in the longer term. We see the yield differential between Switzerland and
other major economies staying low, as other major central banks are likely
to keep their policy rates low for an extended period. The performance of
the Swiss economy calls for higher policy rates at some point, and the SNB
is likely to hike before the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and
the Bank of England. We believe that EURCHF will remain in undervalued
territory – below 1.40 – for a long time. However, the strong franc may
likely weigh on the Swiss economy at some point, and the government and
SNB will have limited ability to counter this currency strength. Swiss franc
strength is well above fair value, compared to our fair value measure of PPP
(fair value EURCHF 1.46, USDCHF 1.17, GBPCHF 1.95). However, strength
is likely to persist given the troubles of the Eurozone and the US.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 13:23 | 873349 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture

NP,  +10

Stunning as usual. 

Gold as a single standard doesn't allow the flexibility to service what has become a world economy.  A better standard would be a mutually agreed upon basket of goods that people need.  Maybe even a basket of rare metals.

The only thing wrong with paper currency is that it can be created with a complex printing process.  The colors, threads, embedded symbols and images protect against counterfitting but how do you protect against govennments that have gone berserk.  (Think US monitary policy from the late 80's to the present.) 

And  now there is China on the scene as a major economic power. How does that fit with gold as the only money. 

No argument that gold is a money.  It cannot be counterfitted.  But where do we get the political will to even convert to a basket of metals or other goods. 

As the old parable of King Midas made clear, it is not the money that we need to live, it is the medium of exchange.  The Swiss frank is strong only because they have avoided war and foreign adventures since the Napoleonic era.  No attempts there to make a splash on the international scene. 

  

    

 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 14:32 | 873577 Confused
Confused's picture

I'm not entirely sure if that is the only reason the Franc is strong. Their economy doesn't seem to function the way others do. Perhaps someone can correct me if I'm wrong. They seem to import LESS goods from places like China. Food seems to be produced within the country (there is obviously some from the EU). Generally they seem to take care of the general population. And its a society where the honor system is used (public transportation is one that comes to mind). Things are expensive. But from what I have observed its because things are made in Switzerland, by Swiss. 

 

Sure avoiding war has helped. And I'm sure they have many of the same problems that other countries have. But from what I can tell, its not as obvious as it was in the US. 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:17 | 873144 lamont cranston
lamont cranston's picture

So, we're all supposed to want a weak currency? I remember way back in the 70s when it was almost 4 CHF (& DM, too) to the USD. A 911 was around $11k back then.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:15 | 873131 whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

google'd it but couldn't find asshole on the map. please help.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:26 | 873181 Salinger
Salinger's picture

use Bing and you'll find it

http://bit.ly/fgv68o

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 15:31 | 873774 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

LOL, good!

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:11 | 873120 mouser98
mouser98's picture

There is not enough gold in the world to keep pace with world economic growth. A renewed commitment of the currencies of gold would therefore lead to deflation.


untrue. the real reason is that a return to the gold standard would interrupt the workings of a huge number of the ponzi schemes that make up global finance.

"Because gold is honest money, it is disliked by dishonest men." ~ Ron Paul

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:30 | 873197 duo
duo's picture

Real non-Ponzi worldwide economic growth is probably 1-2% a year.  We should be able to expand the gold supply by that amount and go on a gold standard without serious deflation.

It will mean that banking and finance will have to shrink to 10% of our economy again, instead of the current 40%.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:47 | 873249 mouser98
mouser98's picture

i think it was Murray Rothbard who asserted that healthy, non-ponzi growth was around 3%, which, according to him, matches the yearly production of new gold.  

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 13:41 | 873414 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

matches the yearly production of new gold.  

 

Nice and fine, especially as gold is in finite amount in the world.

 

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 00:34 | 875340 mouser98
mouser98's picture

so?

i am sitting in my chair in front of this computer.  if i apply the logic of your assertion, at some point i will crap in my pants.  why?  because i did not respond to a changing condition.

if or when we find that gold extraction is not keeping up with growth, then we have the option to 1) crap in our pants or 2) change our standard to silver or some other commodity.

all of the excuses for not using commodity backed currency are either based on 1) that you are a beneficiary of the global financial ponzi scheme, or 2) that you are an idiot.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 13:13 | 873326 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

The production of gold doesn't need to be perfectly adjusted to the economic "growth". A currency is submitted to the same supply/demand laws than any other product.

If the production of gold lags behind, or is nonexistent, then the general prices will fall. And so what? People won't be poorer.

Deflation is the normal state of a healthy and normal economy, oriented towards people's needs and innovation. It has been the rule until 1913.

The idea of deflation has then been criminalized by the Ponzi/macro/Keynesian fraud, because it is indeed lethal for Ponzi schemes and governments.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 13:40 | 873407 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Pyramiding debt has been in use and attractive way before 1913.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 17:36 | 874391 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

Fractional banking has existed for three centuries, but its viability was severely restricted by the absence of a unique central bank and legal tender laws. Don't make the man who doesn't understand.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:14 | 873129 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

As the West stability is reliant on the growth, this settles the issue.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:21 | 873159 mouser98
mouser98's picture

by "growth" you mean inflation.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:08 | 873098 DutchZeroPrinter
DutchZeroPrinter's picture

Gold standard wouldn't lead to deflation, it would lead to lower prices, and that would be good thing. We need sound money.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:08 | 873096 Orly
Orly's picture

Why don't they just generate some "bad news" about their bank holdings or something?  I'm sure there's plenty to go around, especially in light of all the wonderful things to be said about the Euro.

I haven't understood why the Swiss are so pristine in this entire business, yet they complain about being a global safe-haven.  I don't get it.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:52 | 873246 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

"Why don't they just generate some "bad news" about their bank holdings or something?"

Exactly. 

Swiss Exports (More than 30% go to the EU) are @ USD200B annually, mostly machinery and chemicals (& I thought they only did watches and jewellery), and a stronger Franc is going to hurt their order books this year. There is no way the SNB is going to adopt the monetary policies of the ECB, but they might go the way of China and start buying EU debts or pay their cross-border workers in Euros.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:02 | 873074 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Freedom to finally hate the swiss.

Move over america there's a new asshole on the map.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2XTuc6i1Uo

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:04 | 873083 Confused
Confused's picture

Why hate on the Swiss? Just out of curiosity. Its a rather nice country. 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 15:24 | 873742 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Oh they are nice are they. Then why all the army knives. Huh. Why all the army knives. You wouldn't know danger if it stabbed you with the plastic toothpick in it's army knife!! With their vicious saint bernards. I've seen one of those things almost slobber a kid to death. It's horrifying. And they never apoligized for swatches. Not ONE BIT of remorse over that.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 12:23 | 873169 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture

+1

They are telling it like it is.  "Only your friends tell you when you have BO."

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