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Chicago PMI At 62.5 Vs Expectations Of 59.9, And Previous Print Of 60.6
The Chicago PMI came at 304,955. Not really, but the index whose New Orders came at the highest since May 2007 has about as much credibility as anything out of the BLS these days. US Chicago PMI (Nov) M/M 62.5 vs. Exp. 59.9 (Prev. 60.6), highest since April 2010
PMI Components
- Employment: 56.3 vs. Prev. 54.6
- New Orders: 67.2 vs. Prev. 65.0, highest since May 2007
- Prices Paid: 70.7 vs. Prev. 68.9, highest since April 2010
- Production: 71.3 vs. Prev. 69.8, highest since April 2005
Yes, the prices paid surging means margings are taking, but who cares. After all, there are headlines to fudge R2D2's fuzzy logic with.
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I live in Chicago....those numbers are a joke. Economy only worsening and house prices are falling pretty quickly here.
Next up: Consumer confidence should print a 60 on expectations of 52 as millions loom forward to losing UE benefits and surging food and energy prices.
Chicago here as well, and in capital equipment manufacturing.
Both numbers bear no relevance or resemblance to our business, housing, or personal data.
If numbers (consumer confidence) are consistent with data and representative of the population, of these 500 people:
235 of the data set don't pay taxes
85 of the data set are on U6 unemployment
60 of the data set are on food stamps
21 of the data set are on social security disability
92 of the data set are on social security (retirement)
I find these numbers interesting since
-the BDI is low and stagnant
-HARPEX has been on a down trend
-Railroad shipments are declining (not unusual for this time of year)
-retail sales have improved only slightly
So where is the demand coming from? If it isn't shipping overseas and it isn't shipping (in any massive amount) domestically, where is demand coming from?
304,955 seems low.
Canada GDP came in negative 0.1% M/M. That's 2 out of the last 3 months in negative terrain for Canada. That is uncommon. The only times it has occurred since 2000 are in the recessions in 2001 and 2008/2009. Potentially an early warning signal for one of the commodity-based economies.
The double dip is still a possibility.
Canada TSX up 41 points
The TSX market is near new highs for this cycle right now. I am not telling you to short it, I am pointing out a cautionary data trend.
Another strong economic number. Those are pretty impressive components and it adds to a string of stronger regional manufacturing data. No denying that.
We promise to be bullish Harry...I mean Robo...
Now get back to selling your fictitious consumer products to your fictitious customers...shill
The numbers do look good...my question is...where is the demand coming from? Domestic retail is up, but not much. Overseas shipping components are low and flat to declining (BDI and HARPEX).....so where is the demand coming from? My concern is, this is an outlier. If we see another month of strong uptrend, then I think people can begin to relax.
Almost as strong as your prediction for monday? This number is pretty meaningless until they resolve Europe.
Economic number? Try SURVEY. It's a fucking SURVEY. No hiring, no buying, just a bunch of tools answering a questionaire hoping that if they say everything is coming up roses maybe it will come true.
DOW down 60 points
Markets now only down 55pts. All those days, where "we avoided a double dip" was succesfully used to pump the market matters little when it's shown to be incorrect.
Lies are used to pump the market, and then ignored when discovered as lies.
Actually, I can believe it. Our business, including US business, is very good. The cost of raw materials is astronomically up, but revenues and margins are good. We have been hiring globally, but mainly in the US and China. Trying to find experienced and qualified Quality Managers, Manufacturing Supervisors and Tool Room personnel who are under 55 (because we are trying to build the next generation of management and not have everyone retire at the same time) is difficult. We should be training more young people in those jobs .... but it is difficult.
The most thing negative that I can say is that November is looking a little "toppy".
As I've mentioned before, best Sept, 2nd best Oct and best November in our 9 year history for us. Doesn't sound or look like a meltdown on the frontlines out here.
Not priced in gold.
And before you go on a rant about gold bugs, remember that even a 6 year old would understand that gold is not a moving target like the dollar is. With POMO and QE2, you simply cannot price things in dollars anymore.
How was your June, July, and August in 2007? Were those stellar numbers for your business as well?
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan on Bloomberg today - calling for a robust recovery / soft landing in the US and globally that will be quite evident as the new year begins notwithstanding persistent high US unemployment and EU debt issues -
Then Achuthan has his head up his ass. There is no way the US sees a robust recovery. QE will not produce an expansion as all the funding is going to shore up bank capital shortfalls, especially as foreclosures continue to rise.
The banks have been successful in getting the mortgage issue of the newsreels, but often by refinancing homes that are falling in value. With the existing overhang in inventory, the housing market for new construction is dead.
With continued inflation in commodities eating up savings and salaries, where does the capital for robust recovery come from? The banks can't loan and if they try, no one is taking.
Even in Germany, with all it's exports and economic health, the people have been laboring under stagnant wages and higher taxes. Austerity.
Anyone believing that load of crappola is delusional.
There is a disconnect. Because of malinvestment the banks should all be insolvent and we are bailing them out instead. The stock market is a combo Ponzi scheme/crooked casino designed to give control of money to the banks and make people dependent on them ... for such pleasure the banks steal as much money as they want, at will.
The government is overly bloated and making what people earn insufficient to live in still inflated housing and pay the multitude of taxes. Whereas decades ago, one wage earner/laborer could support a modest family and save for retirement, that is no longer the case as the working class requires at least 2 wage earners per household, has difficulty making ends meet and does not have a secure retirement. Debt has been substituted for a sufficient wage and is then sucked away by massively overlaid taxes, central bank created inflation (and other overhead costs) leaving people as debt slaves, most likely by design.
Seemingly, the government thinks that their hiring is some form of welfare that pumps money into the economy with no repercussions, other than making people more dependent on a big federal government (which they like). All levels of government have made mal-commitments and malinvestments that are no longer possible for the working public to support.... and so the government borrows.
Over several decades, the largest and highest volume manufacturing has departed the US, both by becoming massively more efficient and going to lower labor rate countries, leaving a large number of value adding people without jobs. These people were temporarily employed in the housing/construction business and aligned areas, but it was a malinvestment since the housing was unneeded and overly expensive due to this country's overhead costs. Businesses in the US really no longer has a need for these "excess" people, other than as consumers... and businesses will not even support them in marginal jobs because the business model has been stressed by collecting a very high percentage of the earnings to pay the clubby parasitic execs at the top (instead of hiring hundreds or thousands of lower wage people) and bankers through unneeded debt.
... and now we even create wars and internal terror creation organizations, such as the TSA, to employ people (there is no higher purpose, regardless of what the propagandists say).
Still, there is an underlying flow of business driven by a base level of supplying people and businesses what they need. We just need to discard the bottom 20% and we have a nice market from the top 80% (sic).
One thinks that if we could find a way to strip away the malinvestment, malcommitments and convince the greedy to just be good people instead of worthless self absorbed parasites then we could create balance again. However, I think it is too difficult of a job for our so called leaders to do because they have a vested interest in maintaining the status-quo. They will not create real fixes because they do not want real fixes. It would threaten them.
IMO, the only way it will get fixed is after some massive crisis or disaster that forces change... otherwise our frail "so called" leaders will never find the will and moral fiber.
IMHO the PMI is just as FUBAR as the #'s from the BLS. It has become a followed and quoted statistic used to manipulate emotions/confidence. What do the fundamentals say? Hmmm, they do seem to be at odds with the increasingly optimistic PMI numbers. Could it be that the purchasing managers are all smoking those green shoots?
Disclosure: Former Purchasing Manager and non green shoot smoker