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Chicago PMI At 70.6, Prices Paid Highest Since July 2008; Complaints About Inflation And Japan Supply Chain Issues

Tyler Durden's picture


Chicago PMI was released, printing  at 70.6 on expectations of 69.9 and a decline from the prior 71.2. As Japan's PMI released earlier, look for this data series to drop substantially once the impact from the Japanese tragedy is felt in the US. Among the more amusing series in the index was the Order Backlog which hits the highest since February 1974, and the Employment index which hit a ridiculous 28 year high, and the second highest since February 1973. Most notably Price Paid, rising to 70, was the highest pring since July 2008 A few more points here and this index will be the highest since 1980. The followign surve response says it all: "1. It seems like it's time for everybody to jump on the "price
increase" bandwagon, justified or not. 2. Disasters in Japan will cause
inventory to blip upward as contingency plans are placed into effect. 3.
Challenges remain for offsetting any price increases incurred during
Nothing else to be added.

As usual, the most information can be gleaned from the general comments in the Survey Panel:

1. ?Commodity inflation hurting profits. Issuing first pricing increase in 3 year to help recover.
2. ?Chemical Pricing is through the roof right now. Instability in oil markets as well as high demand & low supply due to crop feedstock are serious concerns. Steel and Plastic have risen. Continued inflation will have negative impacts on our ability to pass costs on to our customers in the short term.
3. ?1. It seems like it's time for everybody to jump on the "price increase" bandwagon, justified or not. 2. Disasters in Japan will cause inventory to blip upward as contingency plans are placed into effect. 3. Challenges remain for offsetting any price increases incurred during 2011.
4. ?A lot of skittishness up and down the supply chain concerning the effects of fallout from Japan.
5. ?Japanese produced electronic components will affect our production and customer shipments beginning in 1 to 2 months.
6. ?Japanese situation is full of uncertainty. Problems could exist delaying customer shipments.
7. ?We are in trade show registration/management. We have seen an increase in show attendance for the past 6 months. People are starting to attend shows again. They are also increasing the number of people sent to the shows from individual companies. We saw a significant drop over the past 2 years as companies sent 1 instead of 3 people or skipped certain shows all together. This may be a sign that things are improving.
8. ?Commercial R.E. (real estate) activity is beginning to slowly show signs of life, especially downtown.
9. ?Skilled labor is beginning to be hard to find, and domestic Raw Material deliveries are not being met and Lead Times are increasing beyond reason (32-48 wks.) and our customers are becoming unsatisfied.
10. ?Strong demand for transportation related products, especially aluminum. Filling vacancies in employment slots, including some new positions created in technology arena.
11. ?Software compliance auditing seems to have enjoyed a great growth spurt. It seems that every fourth person in the lobby asking for a meeting is a third party software license compliance auditor working on commission for some publishing house. Where do they get the idea they will be allowed to toss a scanbot into live production systems to cruise around inventorying mission critical operations.
12. ?The orders keep coming as do the request for quotes.
13. ?The water is far from boiling, but it's water that's warming and not ice.

Full release


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Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:55 | 1121133 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Chicago PMI March prices paid 83.4

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:27 | 1121232 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Also WALMEAT CEO says inflation will be very serious in a few months! Danger roger wilco! But who cares? The Dow is UP.

Must see glow picture of the Fukushima plant! GLOW in the dark!

Don't worry though...... they are safe!

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:56 | 1121136 99er
Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:02 | 1121147 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Annnd the markets love this an 106 oil. 

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:02 | 1121149 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Bernanke is so screwed . Now the Fed will have to admit there is inflation as "crap you don't need" prices go up .

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:04 | 1121152 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture


It's gotta be good news...gotta be!!!

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Financials and REITs have a great day and are bid upward all day.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:04 | 1121154 pendragon
pendragon's picture

strong data (inflation) and still march eurodollars are up 5 on the

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:06 | 1121155 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Told ya, manufacturing has been getting better in Chicago and the quoting • orders have really picked up the last three weeks ....

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:08 | 1121165 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What?  PMI went DOWN, while PRICES went up, you dumb shit.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:12 | 1121191 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

O.k. fool ..... Like I said manufacturing is booming in Chicago ....


CAT gives my buddy his material and they buy in bulk eight - twelve months in advance like most .... You have no fucking clue what your talking about ...


Stick with your gold pimping ....

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:15 | 1121193 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Right, so we should ignore the numbers and believe the word of a delivery driver?

I can tell you are lying because your mouth is moving, driver.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:18 | 1121207 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Okl, you fuck he buys from Ryerson in bulk or purchases from overseas .... You have no clue .. You think people in manufacturing just have all this steel sitting around , no they order in advance and let companies like Ryerson sit on it.


How about you tell us all something about manufacturing ? You don't know shit .... All talk.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:24 | 1121225 d00daa
d00daa's picture


Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:27 | 1121240 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture


Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:07 | 1121418 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes, we know you smoke both dick and weed.  No need to keep telling us.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:31 | 1121263 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I toss out 20% fact. 

What do you do except run your fucking mouth, nothing.


Give us all some runners doodaa ? 


Lets each pick 5 stock for one month looser never post again, lets go you fucking bum 

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:41 | 1121308 d00daa
d00daa's picture

Awwww, you whiney little bitch.  I bet you wish you could reach through the monitor and hurt me right?  Furiously whacking that micropenis of yours as you read this, maybe?


I own you.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:55 | 1121345 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

 ..... Keep that pie hole shut ....

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:56 | 1121358 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

You own me. Your a pussy who will not take a challenge over said equities .... Something I don't " KNOW SHIT " about ???


Wipe that egg off your face, pussy. All the ZH now see you as as a big catfish mouth fool ..... All talk from his mommy's crib with glee re-runs in the backround. Grab a book and learn something today, it will be good for your pea brain.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 14:28 | 1121943 d00daa
d00daa's picture

I don't chase momo, you braindead, truck driving, momentum chasing fuck nut .  I am a trader.  I have some core long physical and paper PM positions that I add to regularly, but the vast majority of my activity is day and swing trading 3x ETFs, long equity and index options, and selling spreads.

I chase volatility (or lack thereof).  I can't remember the last time I had a long position exposed for more than five trading sessions.

Let me translate: I don't call or trade "runners" you sad simple fuck.  Now run along, somewhere a truck is missing it's driver.


I own you.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:11 | 1121424 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I don't play stocks, idiot.

You pick a SECTOR, and I will take silver, and one year from now declare a winner.  No need to leave the board, but the loser must admit they are a loser.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 13:03 | 1121884 ageofreason
ageofreason's picture

I've got this marked....

The game is on...

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:18 | 1121449 tmosley
tmosley's picture

When the prices are rising rapidly, people do, in fact, tend to accumulate inventory.  But you wouldn't know anything about that, would you, driver?

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:18 | 1121199 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Its inflation dude. CAT will be busy because of the Japan rebuild and continued growth in China. Chicago mfg on average is in a depression.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:23 | 1121214 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I have been talking about Cat from day one. They have been booming for the last 12 months look at the quarterly reports and the stock price .... All time fucking highs ...

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:28 | 1121249 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Hey "Rosey -- the anti-doomer", CAT is one of the great stories in this cycle BECAUSE of precious metals and industrial metals mining, farming and the China building bubble.   Most of the mid-west manufacturing sector is still mired in a slump.    Smaller competitors have been wiped out, leaving more scraps for the better capitalized players - but there ain't anything in the mid-west to write home about.   Else, you wouldn't be hearing the tears from the state and local gubbermints of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, etc....

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:34 | 1121267 d00daa
d00daa's picture



China bull, are we Smailes?  LMFAO @ you fucking simpleton.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:36 | 1121276 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

And AG and they own Bucyrus and Electro-motive diesel now. I know all about the mining boom in most commodities ... and AG.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:03 | 1121158 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Where on earth is Prechter? Is he refunding the millions his followers have paid him for being 100%, verifiably wrong? LOL!

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:30 | 1121260 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Lying in a tightly wrapped fetal position, under the desk of his Study, sucking his thumb, clutching his blankey, sobbing for his mommy

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:03 | 1121160 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Silver and gold, silver and gold.

Sup Spaulding.  Where you at, son?

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:09 | 1121177 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

What, gold has done shit since Oct 20th ......


After QE is over it will fall like a stone in a lake .....


You could have bought MPEL or GLUU on the dip last week and made 20% ..... 

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:10 | 1121181 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Stocks are also going to get destroyed when QE ends.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:09 | 1121186 tmosley
tmosley's picture

So $1343=$1440?

No wonder you think you're making money delivering furniture. 

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:21 | 1121209 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Facts are optional for some folk.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:27 | 1121229 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Over 1,360 middle of October .... A tight trading range since , nothing ... Really when your talking about something over 1,300 .... What's 1,360 • 1,415 yesterday a few percent .....

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:39 | 1121298 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Rosey, you do know that if you are a 'trader', you should love 'range-bound' assets.   When they trade in a tight range you can make a tremendous amount of money playing the range.     The beauty of gold has been the range play AND that it is real money (if it goes down against fiat - do you really care?  It's about wealth accumulation not paper plays).

When stuff just ramps up, you have to hope that you got enough early enough, and then you're stuck staring or chasing price up - both far less profitable.


May gold trade between 1100 and 1500 for a long time, I'll be very happy indeed

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:29 | 1121496 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, but you've been saying "October 20th" forever.  This only shows how stupid you are.  You can't even get your facts straight.

And I don't really give a shit about gold.  It's 5% of my portfolio.  I only really care about silver, which is up more than 60%.  What has your "portfolio" done since October 20th?   You can harp on the winners all you want, but you never talk about the LOSERS.  That is a lie by omission.

You can always tell when a driver is lying.  The giveaway is when his lips are moving.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:15 | 1121195 d00daa
d00daa's picture

Ah, anecdotes.  The realm of the truly moronic.  "I know a guy who knows a guy..."  Pathetic.

I'm really, really looking forward to earnings season.  And your subsequent 3-6 month disappearing act.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:15 | 1121196 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

SLV up 62% since October 20th.

IAG (IAMGOLD Corp) up 25% in 2011, 32% since October 20th.

Spalding, you ignorant slut.


Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:28 | 1121239 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

So now we are talking silver ? I never talked about that ...


You want me to start picking out all the shit miners that have done nothing .....

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:35 | 1121277 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Wow, somebody's upset.  If you want to pull random stocks out of your gaping rectum, I can do the same.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:48 | 1121335 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Are you saying you have a gaping rectum?  :)

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:12 | 1121433 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I don't own any miners, because I expected them to go no-where.  You keep calling me a "gold pimp", but I own 95% silver, which is up 62% since your arbitrary date of October 20th.

Suck on that, lot lizard.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:20 | 1121201 tmosley
tmosley's picture

It's funny how you pretend to know the movements of all of these individual stocks beforehand, and then talk about performance as though you were able to buy at the absolute low and sell at the absolute high just before it broke back down and lost you money.

Your lips are still moving, driver.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:26 | 1121219 d00daa
d00daa's picture

You didn't make shit on any dip your equity "calls" are fucking pathetic.  I want to hear specific buy/sell numbers from you BEFORE YOU ACT you worthless troll.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:30 | 1121250 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Everyone of my picks went up over 20% ..... Did they dip like everything, yup , but I sell after 20% every time, moron.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:35 | 1121278 d00daa
d00daa's picture

After the fact means nothing to me.  I'm more convinced than ever that you don't trade at all.  I want to see your "calls" posted here as you execute the actual trades, or they mean nothing to me.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:38 | 1121296 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

See my post above you big pussy ....

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:05 | 1121164 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture
Fed names banks that took discount-window loans during crisis
Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:20 | 1121202 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

Fox Business News has card tables with laptops on the sidewalk, across the street from the Eccles Building, reporting dates and amounts. One can only hope a few Fed employees are peeing in their pants.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:07 | 1121167 HedgeFundLIVE
Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:07 | 1121175 HedgeFundLIVE
Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:07 | 1121176 HedgeFundLIVE
Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:21 | 1121178 whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

3 times! must be true.

praise be the bernank! may the numbers always be higher!

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:11 | 1121185 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Blame it on BRIC, of course.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:20 | 1121203 Kali
Kali's picture

Better start stocking up for your sweet tooth.  Prices to surge 10%.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:38 | 1121286 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Wholesale prices to surge, not retail.  That's the rub.  I still haven't seen retail prices go up on many things yet.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:02 | 1121391 Alea Iacta Est
Alea Iacta Est's picture

True, but that won't be far behind. Supply chain can only eat so much and then it's earnings or consumers, take your pick. We will see significant retail inflation by the end of summer if not sooner.

Too that end, I have already noticed significant inflation at the grocery store. I typically spend about $170 per week on groceries and lately that has risen to around $200 per week.

Some variation week to week but overall that is a very fair characterization.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:12 | 1121435 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Very tough spot for a retailer to be in right now, no doubt.  I wonder how they even balance that out: consumer vs. margins.

I wrote this a couple weeks ago, but one of my clients is a higher-up at a well-known milk wholesaler.  They recently raised prices by 12 cents a gallon, and now it's up to the retailers to decide what to do with it.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:57 | 1121378 randomq
randomq's picture

How is there going to be a QE3 when inflation is becoming a problem?  It seems like everything is increasing except the CPI.  How long can everything else be up while the CPI remains the same?

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:14 | 1121441 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Despite Spalding's gaping rectum, I will say that I am concerned about gold/silver when QE ends.  I think most of us here would agree that speculative money has rushed into commodities since August, and I wonder how much of that has poured into PMs.  When the market went to hell in 2008, gold had what -- a 20-30% correction?  That concerns me.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:22 | 1121465 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

JL, that should only concern you if you are TRADING gold, and measuring your wealth in fiat.   If that is the case, take out insurance with puts or shorting GLD to minimize downside risk, to keep your fiat amount at about the same level.    I hope, wish and pray that I can buy physical gold at a 30% discount vis.a.vis FRNs!  

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:19 | 1121447 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Taunton, MA job fair canceled. First time in 30 years. Employers not interested in hiring. Only 10 tables reserved. My local paper mentioned that of the 10 tables reserved, half were non-profit outfits looking for volunteers.,56671

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:23 | 1121469 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Bullish, right?

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