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Chicago PMI Misses Expectations, Plunges From Prior Print... Futures Surge
The Chicago August PMI just came out at a new 2010 low of 56.7, missing expectations of 57.0, and a plunge from the prior read 62.3. The decline was across all key subindices, with Employment (55.5), New Orders (55.0), Prices Paid (57.2), and Production (57.6) all coming in below the prior prints. And yes, this was a miss, which makes it a little odd and embarrassing trying to explain to dramatic surge in the AUDJPY (and its derivative, stocks) the second this number hit the tape: almost as if someone will do anything in their power to prevent a plunge in the market on this day of ongoing weak data, especially since the NY ISM came in at a one year low earlier, confirming the double death of the economy.
AUDJPY reaction to disappointing news. Someone explain this to us... and to Brian Sack, who seems to consistently confuse the buy and sell (lol) buttons.
From DJ on NY ISM:
"NEW YORK, Aug 31, 2010 (Dow Jones Commodities News Select via Comtex) --New York City business activity continues to slip further in August from its May blazing pace, according to a report released Tuesday.
The Institute for Supply Management-New York's Current Business Conditions index fell to 55.6 from 59.4 in July. It was the lowest reading since 54.5 in August 2009 and well below the 89.9 hit in May.
An index reading above 50 indicates a faster pace of activity and less than 50 indicates a slower or contracting rate.
The report also showed businesses scaling down their expectations. The Six-Month Outlook index fell to 58.4 from 69.6 in July.
The subindexes were weak. The ISM-NY's employment index fell to 50.0 from 51.5, and its purchasing volume index slowed to 54.3 from 59.4. The Prices Paid index fell to 43.2 from 48.5.As with other economic reports, the ISM-NY numbers are decidedly weaker than reports earlier in the year. The disappointing numbers point to U.S. economic growth far slower in the second than in the first, when real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of about 2.6%.
For its special monthly question, the ISM-NY asked about access to financing. The results showed working capital shortages remain a concern. Among the respondents reporting a problem, 12% face difficulty obtaining financing, 40% have shortfalls in revenues, 12% say the cost structure was too high and 21% cite all three reasons. The report said 40% of firms were not experiencing working capital shortages--a sharp improvement from 21% saying so in August 2009."
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Down is the new positive indicator.
Bloomberg story says car sales expected to reach 28 year low in August in report released tomorrow.
Aaaand ... the market turns green!
But, it will turn out to be only a 26 year low. We beat expectations!
pff, beats me.
Bloomberg says the consensus was 56.0 ?
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=442662&cust=bloomberg&year=2010#top
I have noticed on Bloomberg's website that consensus will magically change after a report comes out that misses horribly. I have never seen them change it to below the released number, but they still cannot be trusted on their "consensus".
Charlatans, what else is new...
"Consensus" is always a datapoint that is weaker than the actual posted result.
The markets have to close GREEN...National Security...especially since The Messiah is blathering this evening.
Every number has been priced at the worst levels...when it misses the downside whisper, the rally is ON!
Amazing that futures were down -73 at 2:30 this morning. Market strength into a deteriorating economic that we a know will be worse 6 months ago without a stimulus nuke option.
Last day of the month.
Desperate times. After all statement prints today, will determine magnitude of redemption's in 2-3 weeks.
They'll fight to keep it above 10,000 like mad dogs with rabies
They know if momentum builds crossing under 10,000 this baby will go in a free fall
Can't have that now, can we?
Un-be-fucking-lievable....
Bloomberg says the consensus was 56.0 http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=442662&cust=bloomberg&year=2010#top
This article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-31/business-activity-in-u-s-expands-at-slower-pace-than-estimated-ism-says.html
says 57 was consensus estimate...
This market is a joke!
The narcissist will give us another blame this, blame that msg. Tell us if peeps would just do what he wants everything will be fine. Prob worth another 200 point drop Wed. He is the economic anti christ.
Gold just exploded upwards to $1245...whoops $1248
Silver to $19.24
That's good in so many ways, not the least of which is Johnny will be scarce.
Window dressing. And they'll hopefully take gold down too. I am having an Orval. Sweet.
tried to finesse a buy order at a pullback to the silver breakout line. Burnt.
CONSUMER "CONFIDENCE" SOARS!
Holy shit, you just can't make this stuff up. My god...
I assumed the unemployment compensation battle may have been dragged out into mid-July to create a false August rebound in certain metrics. Most people didn't get their back payments until the end of July or beginning of August, which would have a direct effect on numbers such as consumer confidence.
Let's see what happens by October when that bonus money has all been spent...
At time of writing all major equity markets are below their levels when Bernanke spoke from Jacksons Hole. Or vica versa, you know what I mean. Except for the FTSE which was closed on Monday and is outperforming by over 1%.
This proves 2 things.
1) Everything trading this market has a memory < 24hours.
2) There's no need to print money to keep this market up. Just close the market on the days when you release the bad data. Genius!
Confidence higher - used as the monthly crutch to ramp off the Mar-09 low - is back! the beatings will continue until moral improves
Confidence higher - used as the monthly crutch to ramp off the Mar-09 low - is back! the beatings will continue until moral improves
There has got to be a "long term capital management" moment coming.
"The report said 40% of firms were not experiencing working capital shortages--a sharp improvement from 21% saying so in August 2009."
I wonder how many of those respondents from August 2009 closed up shop over the last year...
Yeah, but consumer confidence beat expectations and stuff, so yeah, looking like a green day.
Epic fraud man...epic.
What do you expect when CNBC hasn't placed any emphasis on this. They are currently pumping the rise in consumer confidence. How long can this bull shit go on?
Market going into a complete V as Wall Street, retail and CNBC cheer a beat on consumer confidence. Pisani cannot contain himself and is firing his green shoots gatling gun and breaking news compelling us all to buy.
CNBC Notes:
That's probably true, on balance, since they've closed c.300 of the really sick ones since then.
What's going to be really fun is Friday, where I'm expecting misses on every single employment indicator. Yet, it will still go green, because it's Friday.
The silver lining is the continuation of equity outflows. Bullshit is finite.
Now, more so than before I'm getting the distinct feeling they are trying harder than ever to keep the markets from plunging. We've had roughly 90 days of just shit data and days where bad news guns the market higher. I also get the impression it's becoming a lot harder for the central bankers to continue the levitating act.
When the data go your way and the markets don't its generally time to rethink your thesis
What's a better thesis? The technical support at 1040 is so strong it beats devastation in pretty much every fundamental indicator known? Amazing earnings yield? It has all been a little odd, lately, wouldn't you say?
another 1040, 10,000 stick save no matter the news; it's standard operating procedure
Agreed and blatant...this is getting seriously asinine.
Just goes to show that these releases are irrelevant to trading, so stop getting fired up about them (most of that data is bull anyways) and what really matters is price action and momentum ie levels and accumulation/distribution. I would say it's hard to miss 1037 as it's starring right at you and nice pick-up in momo on 30min (do I really have to show you a chart) and 52.50, 62.50, 72.50, 84.50 levels - keep them in mind.
Pairing up before 10? Must be romper room.
yes there is always "someone".. that mysterious force that is fighting all too emotional permabears on this blog.. I also like how 56.7 vs. 57.0 qualifies to be a huge miss thatthis post makes it to be.. did you ever wonder that the whisper number was much lower than "consensus" after atrocious philly fed and other regional PMIs? You are probably the only person to whom a miss of less than 2 points didnt qualify a a "beat"
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