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Chicago PMI Prints At Multi-Decade High At 68.8 On Expectations Of 64.5, "Steel Prices Are Going Crazy"

Tyler Durden's picture


Chicago PMI Surges again, hitting 68.8 on expectations of 64.5, compared to the lower revised 66.8. And as recently has become trading, the only indicator everyone is looking at is the Price Paid (i.e., the margin collapse metric) which came at 81.7 compared to 78 previously. The key comment from the survey panel: "Steel prices are going crazy." Nuff said.

Report Highlights, and try not to laugh...

Business Activity:

  • Prices Paid, at 81.7, compared to 78.0 previously, indicated increased inflation, increasing to the highest level since July 2008
  • Employment strengthened to a height not seen since May 1984
  • New Order increased to the highest point since December 1983
  • Production improved with New Order to the strongest level since 2004

Buying Policy:

  • Lead times reported for MRO supplies plummeted.

Full comments from the report:

1. Lots of commodities price rising - steel, tin, aluminum, paper. Has not impacted sales though - have had large increase in orders.
2. Commodity inflation hurting profits, no pricing power with our customers.
3. Prices seem to be heating up, many suppliers are knocking on the door right now.
4. Some suppliers are holding prices to remain competitive, but others who have little to no competition in their sector are talking some significant increases in 2011. We are negotiating to keep those increases to a minimum.
5. Steel prices are going crazy
6. Business has increased mostly overseas higher prices, especially copper will kill us figure our cost has increased 40% same as oil too many speculators buying
7. Unfortunately the magic allure of a new year has not brought about improved service and pricing. Suppliers are continuing with pressures of increased pricing, decreased service levels and extended lead times.
8. Local foreclosures continue unabated. Small to medium sized business lending picking up slightly but remains very competitive due to lack of credit-worthiness of many of those businesses.
9. Business continues to improve. We have concerns about available experienced personnel to hire as well as pressures on capacity.
10. Business remains steady, orders are firm from month to month, back log remains solid…
11. Orders continue to come in spurts. No orders for 3 or 4 weeks then 3 or 4 in 1 week. The important thing is that the backlog is growing. The quote action is continuing strong.
12. The company for which I work overall revenues has increased by 34%. We are sheet metal fabrication job shop, customers are predominantly OEM Equipment manufacturers and Packaging.
13. Very good start to 2011 !

And we all have Ben Bernanke's revolutionary policy to thank for 13 !

Full report


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Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:52 | 920103 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:44 | 920340 pgarner
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No, plastics, my son.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:25 | 920550 Mad Max
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CRKT, Ka-Bar, Ontario, or maybe Queen Cutlery.  Say no to dopey videos styled like WWF shows.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:55 | 920110 Racer
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Oh and how come there was 'market talk of a better than expected' number before the number came out???

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:57 | 920121 TruthInSunshine
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Orwell would be blushing, no doubt.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:58 | 920123 FunkyMonkeyBoy
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Tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:59 | 920128 alien-IQ
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"Employment strengthened to a height not seen since May 1984"

WHAT THE FUCK??????????

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:59 | 920129 Hondo
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Remember this is a diffusion index...the level of the index means nothing as to the level of actual production.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 10:59 | 920132 Dick Darlington
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Seems like every single metric points to accelerating inflation except the one Benron is watching.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:00 | 920133 Tic tock
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A Harry Wanger moment

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:05 | 920134 Oh regional Indian
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If you look at the situation in Queensland, getting more dire by the day and a huge cyclone bearing down as we speak, the "coal effect' begins to show it's face in the steel market.

And the Queensland effect on the BDI.

Supply diruptions are going to make all stocks (material ones that is), rocket.

The trade (most trade) will go physical as supply-chain disruptions increase. Hoarding, local speculation....

Deflation in the "real" world? I really doubt it.


Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:00 | 920136 Printfaster
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Steel?  What is it good for?

Swords.  Cannons. Guns.  Trucks.  Tanks. Ships.

Can't think of anything else.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:02 | 920140 Racer
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Barbed wire to keep the sheeple fenced off from the banksters

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:02 | 920143 tmosley
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Missiles, bombs, submarines.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:06 | 920160 Printfaster
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Missiles use aluminum.  Bombs, steel is old school.  Subs use titanium.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:08 | 920165 Rodent Freikorps
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Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:42 | 920640 traderjoe
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Mon, 01/31/2011 - 13:49 | 920915 Bananamerican
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"Pitchfork ready jobs"™

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 14:42 | 921072 Hephasteus
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I'm long handcuffs.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 20:00 | 922223 1Fatboy
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They must be making the handcuffs in China b/c they aren't being made here....



Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:21 | 920225 savagegoose
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nice solid core for rubber bullets.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:02 | 920437 Maiden Lane
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You can't eat that stuff?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:04 | 920151 Jason T
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ZIRP means US$ no store of value = hyperinflation.  

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:05 | 920154 papaswamp
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Rally on, POMO on...all is well...Rahming speed!!!

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:11 | 920157 firstdivision
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Comment #6 is quite striking as well. 

What I cannot understand is how their hiring is so good with the other numbers that come out.  Who's lying the least?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:09 | 920167 DutchSucker
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Copper is killing them...JPMorgan has lots of control of copper price.

Oligarchs are heavily in this game too...

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:13 | 920178 Racer
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01-31 10:02: US NAPM-Milwaukee (Jan) M/M 57.0 vs.Prev. 62.0 not so hot there eh!
Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:30 | 920266 Mike2756
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Aussie ports are shutdown again due to the typhoon, how much longer before coal is in short supply?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:37 | 920310 Hephasteus
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“The depression has ended.” – Dr. Julius Klein, Assistant Secretary of Commerce, June 9, 1931

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:40 | 920323 Racer
Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:42 | 920328 SDRII
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should read Highest Prices Since "1984"

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:43 | 920335 Translational Lift
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Chicago PMI huh..........must be all the mid-west 99ers out buying new cars...........

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 14:43 | 921078 blindfaith
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Ummm...are they showing results for the USA?????????? 

Is this a Hollywood script or data from another planet?


Is this like hanging chads in Florida where they only counted the ones they want to count?

Gosh, I am confused...don't 7,8,9 and 10 contradict each other just a wee bit.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 15:06 | 921198 RKDS
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Dad always says the recession isn't really done until there're layoffs at the mill.  Over the last 30 years, that's by and large been true, at least from a working class perspective.

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