China Economic Data Now No Longer Just Manipulated, But Leaked Too

Reuters reports that according to two "sources" the Chinese economy grew at a 11.9% rate in Q1, compared to expectations of 11.5%. Of course, the rate of growth is 10 bps below where the economy is considered to be in the official redline, and rates hikes become inevitable. And even as the economy surges, inflation is somehow supposed to come in under expectations: "Consumer price inflation in March was roughly 2.4 percent,
one of the sources said. That would be a deceleration from the
2.7 percent rate in February and below forecasts of 2.6 percent." As the source of the leak appears to have been greenlighted by China, we should expect the daytrading algos which trade only on leak catalysts, to have a field day frontrunning each other on all Chinese issues, as they leave the Ambac corpse behind. "The numbers heard by Reuters matched those reported earlier
on Wednesday by China Business News, a Chinese-language
newspaper which cited an unidentified source."

Comments

[john_connor]

Meanwhile Washington is keeping a nervous eye on black gold, which at last check was tip toeing around $85 per barrel.

Look for a bear raid soon as emergency unemployment checks get eaten rather quickly on $3 retail gasoline.

[-1Delta]

+1 contango falling still....

[Sudden Debt]

Yes but Azia is bound to use more and more oil as it grows.

2 months ago I was in China (border region Laos) and the cars which they drive... I have never seen more H2 Hummers, Lexus SUV, Toyota SUV's... compared to the other cars. And traffic was a bitch!

and because they are over a billion oil is bound to go way up.

[Hulk]

Gasoline consumption in China, for january, was up YOY 27%. They wont be driving those hummers for much longer, world oil consumption is now at a record

[Sudden Debt]

11.5%... WAW

I mean... WAW.... it's just a bit to good to be true.

[SDRII]

JPM blows out the FICC line as VaR goes down...Home equity outlook improving snark

[Fritz]

I can't wait to see the US Gov published inflation stats. I am sure the focus will be on ex-food/energy.

They will consider inflation "Tame" once again, however the only thing actually tame is wages/earnings for the middle class.

Gas and Food prices have been ramping in Q1. Big time inflation in the things you need is what matters, yet food/energy are downplayed.

[john_connor]

I think the plan is to force consumers into 50K hybrid electric cars from government motors, with tax subsidies of course if you buy new.

Depending on the industry, corporate balance sheets can either take a hit to margins on increased raw material cost or just cost cut elsewhere, like sending jobs overseas.  With respect to a margin decrease, the market doesn't really care as multiples reach insane levels.

Re: food, there has been rampant inflation already in the form of smaller portion sizes for the same *price*, which wouldn't show up in the bogus CPI numbers.

[Mako]

Wait till you see China implode. 

[Sqworl]

Chop Guewey for all...lol

[chinaguy]

new apartment complexes here in Hangzhou have been selling out in hours with thousands competing for hundreds of units. The last place opened it's doors at midnight with an immediate sell out. The sheeple are convinced that real estate "can only go higher". Does this remind anyone of the situation in Florida or Arizona before "the great pop"?

It's great that China's GPD is up...but "pop goes the weasel"

[sheeple]

+1

Comments on HK from non-other than the atmost beloved Hang Seng (HSBC's bitch)

http://www.hangseng.com/ermt/eng/fxmv/pdf/hkem_e.pdf

Strong demand during the Lunar New Year holidays pushed up both sales and prices

Export growth accelerated to a five-year high of 28.5% in February from 18.4% in January, despite the fact that the Lunar New Year fell in February this year.

The February unemployment rate dropped by a faster-than-expected pace to 4.6% from 4.9% in January. The higher level of consumption driven by the Lunar New Year holidays helped create 7,900 new jobs.

As we now see a higher GDP growth for 2010, the unemployment rate will likely fall more quickly.

Consumer prices climbed to a 13-month high of 2.8% in February, sharply higher than the previous month’s reading of 1.0%, due largely to a strong seasonal demand for food and festival items during the Lunar New Year.

I'm skeptical of their GDP outlook, retail sales and residential property (referring to your phrase of pop goes the weasel)

They did roll back abit in this report:

With major central banks also contemplating exit strategies, there could be potential

negative implications for financial markets and global growth. As such, we keep a

cautiously optimistic view.

[svendthrift]

Here are two from Andy Xie:

http://english.caing.com/2010-04-12/100134074.html

http://www.cibmagazine.com.cn/Columnists/Andy_Xie.asp?id=1283&no_room_to...

The Chinese property market is scary.

[Lux Fiat]

About a decade or more back, there was an uproar in DC over the Chinese gov't's decision to lease, not donate, new pandas to the National Zoo.  I remember getting a good chuckle out of it, as it seemed to me that the flap indicated that Chinese had become very astute and pragmatic students of capitalism - perhaps more so than many of the folks who were howling over not getting free pandas anymore.

I wouldn't call the Chinese capitalists, but they have spent years watching some of the most masterful financial players in the world, and have clearly learned a thing or two - for better or worse.

[Carl Spackler]

OH, the irony.

This story exudes the aroma of NO INFLATION in China.

Yet, the Daily Highlights story directly below exudes the following stenches:

China to increase gasoline and diesel prices by as much as 4.6 percent starting today.

China’s property prices rose 11.7% - record pace in March.

Please disburse. There is nothing to see here.

[Rick64]

Reminds me of another economic superpower that spins the numbers.

[dumpster]

exacto ... the USA is the #1 spinner of all time .

china is the bank for our profligacy.. a nation that is growing with billions of mouths to feed . on the cusp of a huge 50 year plan .

and the little mouths of spin . try to detract from the usa end of empire.. that they will even

play games of hide and seek , hide the truth and seek a large sludge hammer to bludgeon a gnat